© Sumpoorna 2017

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Weekly Technical Roundup May’20, 2019

Market Commentary

Sector Wise Performance

Indices Last Traded % Change

NIFTY IT 15843.4 -0.67

NIFTY BANK 29450.15 1.41

NIFTY REALTY 252.55 0.54

NIFTY INFRA 3032.15 -0.67

INDIA VIX 28.075 6.61

NIFTY ENERGY 15538.65 0.29

NIFTY FMCG 29962.15 2.05

NIFTY PHARMA 8448.95 -5.54

NIFTY PSU BANK 2949.2 -2.43

NIFTY AUTO 8085.75 -0.09

NIFTY MEDIA 2190.25 -1.69

NIFTY METAL 2807.25 -2.27

NIFTY COMMODITIES 3482.95 -0.13

NIFTY CONSUMPTION 4700.2 0.99

TOP WEEKLY GAINERS TOP WEEKLY LOSERS

BAJFINSERVE YESBANK

BAJFINANCE SUNPHARMA

TITAN TATAMOTORS

HEROMOTOCO INDUSINDBANK

KOTAKBANK DRREDDY

Sensex opened the week at 37419, made a high of 38001, low of 36956 and closed the week at 37930. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 468 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 11258, made a high of 11426, low of 11108 and closed the week at 11407. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 129 points.

Options data for 23rdMay’2019 weekly expiry series maximum Call open interest (OI) of 7.20Lakh contracts was seen at the 12000 strike price, followed by the 11800 strike price (with 4.08lakh contracts) and 11500 (with 4.08Lakh contracts). Maximum Put open interest of 4.54lakh contracts at the strike price of 11000 followed by strike price 11200 (with 4.41 Lakh contracts) and11300 (with3.35contracts). Hence, NIFTY range would be 11000 to 12000 while intermediate resistance is 11800 and intermediate support at 11200.

NIFTY PE-28.44, VIX is at 28.0750, as long as sustaining above 25, it would be indicating possibility of downside. VIX if moved below 25 there may be continuation of bulls rally. High VIX indicates high volatility in the market.

PCR is now at 1.36 moved up from 1.29; PCR indicates market has made many rooms for either side movement. Below 1.20 it will be over sold. Above 1.75 it is considered as over bought zone.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers to the tune of Rs 6,221.35 crore, taking the net total outflow of more than Rs 10,000 crore in May till now. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Rs 6,730.35 crore worth of equities in the last week.

The major earnings include BPCL, HPCL, Tata Motors, DLF, Bharat Forge, Tech Mahindra, Ashoka Buildcon, Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Indusind Bank, Moil, Sintex Industries, Rolta India, Unichem Laboratories, Atul Auto, NIIT, Sun TV Network, Bata India, Ashok Leyland, Dish TV India, Religare Enterprises, GIC Housing Finance, IDFC, Indraprastha Gas, NCC, NDTV among others

May 24, 2019:- India’s Foreign Exchange Reserve for the week ended May 17, 2019.

Results of the exit polls will be published only on May 19th after the elections are over.

Usdinr (70.3200) has a HNS type pattern in hourly chart and the neckline breakdown would happen below 70 and USDINR would gain a capacity to test 69.45 again. On the other hand the resistance at 70.70 has been moved top 70.80-70.90 in the form of a rising trend line and a breakout would happen above this level. A minor resistance is seen around 100 SMA at 71.15 while major resistance might be around 200 SMA at 72.11. Conclusively, traders need to watch 70-71 range of the currency for an either side breakout. Oscillators are mixed.

Brent Crude (72.11) had a positive confirmation of three continuous doji in weekly chart. It is also a rising three type of candlestick pattern in weekly chart. Hence, as long as 68.80 is not breached decisively there is no expectations of a big fall. Immediate resistance is 73.50 above which it may gain strength but the previous top 75.60 would be a hurdle in the expected rally. Next resistance is at 79-80. If Brent Crude managed to breach 68.80 decisively there would be weakness and 50 weeks moving average around 65-66 would be a strong support. 200 SMA is at 69, 100 SMA is at 66 while 50 SMA is at 70. Oscillators are bullish.

© Sumpoorna 2017

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Weekly Technical Roundup May’20, 2019

Nifty Weekly Outlook

Outlook: Nifty is expected to trade initially in the range 11200 to 11500 in the coming week. Resistance11610 Support 11100

Nifty (11407) after a big corrective fall found support at 100 SMA around 11100 and made a strong hammer type candle in weekly chart. SMA is at 11470.

Immediate support at 11200 suggests the initial range might be 11200 to 11500. Previous breakdown happened below the neckline around 11610 which would act as another resistance.

Any closing above this level would be a positive signal and create the possibility of crossing the top 11860 to move towards 12000.

If moved below 11100 and 11200 levels, strong support has been observed around 11000-10960 which is near 200 SMA and 50 week is moving average.

Since big odd movements are also expected this week, long term monthly chart should also be considered.

The rally came after the confirmation of three continuous doji in monthly chart. Hence 10580 would act as a trend decider for medium term on closing basis.

Oscillators in daily chart are positive.

Nifty Chart (Weekly):11407 High 11426

Low 11108

Resistance Levels

- R1 11500

- R2 11610

- R3 11860

-R4 12000

Support Levels

- S1 11200

- S2 11100

- S3 11000

-S4 10960

NIFTY - BANK Outlook

Nifty bank (29450)– NIFTY BANK closed with a strong hammer type candl;e in weekly chart and proved 28500 asd a storng support.

Previous neckline below which the breajkdown happened suggests the initial range would be 29000 to 29800. Above this range resistance is at 30125 if managed to cross this decisively it would attain a momentum and gain an possibility of breaching all time high 30670 to test 31000+ levels.

Inability to sustain above 29000 would lead the index to struggle again with 28500. 100 SMA support is at 28250 while 200 SMA is at 27377.

Long term support 50 weeks moving average is at 27333. Oscillators are positive. In monthly chart the index is making higher highs and higher lows but it has a negative divergance with RSI and hence sustaining at higher level seems a concern for medium term point of view.

© Sumpoorna 2017

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Weekly Technical Roundup May’20, 2019

Bank Nifty Chart (Weekly): 29450

High 29559

Low 28525

Resistance Levels

- R1 29800

- R2 30125

- R3 30500

- R4 30900

Support Levels

- S1 29200

- S2 29000

- S3 28500

- S3 28200

NIFTY Midcap (16875)

NIFTY Midcap index (16875) has made a long tailed hammer on seventh week of continuous fall. In daily chart also it has confirmed a long tailed hammer decisively.

This suggests the immediate support is at 16600 and 16500. Major support of the index is around 16300 near 1000 SMA.

Immediate hurdle seems at 17000-17100. 100 SMA at 17400 might be another resistance. Major resistances deciding medium term trend are at 50weeks moving average at 17820 and next at100 weeks moving average and distribution zone around 18500.

Previous bottoms around 16000 would be another major support deciding long term trend.

Oscillators in daily chart are positive.

© Sumpoorna 2017

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Weekly Technical Roundup May’20, 2019

STOCK Picks

HEROMOTOCO ( 2623)

Heromotoco has positive divergence in weekly chart. The Stock has confirmed a hammer strongly and indicates the bullish reversal sign. The Stock is facing 50 SMA hurdle, Buy at dips around 2530-2560 with Stop loss 2470 and Target 240 and 2900.

BEML (835)

BEML will show an inverse HNS breakout above 852 after a big fall in hourly chart. Keep sl below 826 and target 900

© Sumpoorna 2017

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Weekly Technical Roundup May’20, 2019

BALRAMCHINI ( 143.50)

BALRAMCHINI has an inverse HNS pattern in hourly chart and breakout is expected above 146 stop loss should be below 140 and target 155-160.

Source: Sumpoorna Research, NSE, BSE, SEBI,

and other publically available documents.

Document prepared by:

Nitesh Aggarwala & Sunil Koul

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contact: Sumpoorna Global Markets &

Economics Research

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