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Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies Sandy Springs, Georgia October 15, 2015 Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan

Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

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Page 1: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

Sandy Springs, Georgia October 15, 2015

Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’

Comprehensive Plan

Page 2: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

AGENDA

• Welcome & Project Approach • Economic and Demographic Trends • Findings and Opportunities by Land Use

– For-Sale Housing – Rental Housing – Office and Industrial – Retail – Hotel

• In Focus: Planning in Five Small Areas – North Springs MARTA Station – Future MARTA Station – Powers Ferry – PCID – Roswell Road

• Questions and Next Steps

Page 3: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

ABOUT THE RCLCO TEAM

RCLCO is a land use economics firm delivering real estate strategies, market intelligence, and implementation assistance

Practice Groups Public Strategies Community Development Urban Development Management Consulting Institutional Advisory

Offices Washington, DC Los Angeles Austin Orlando

Page 4: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

ABOUT THE RCLCO TEAM

PUBLIC STRATEGIES answers questions concerning real estate, economics, finance and policy for our public sector clients.

Expertise Affordable Housing Corridor Planning Design Economics Downtown Revitalization Economic Development Economic & Fiscal Impact Industrial City Turnaround Metropolitan Growth Strategies Neighborhood Planning Public-Private Partnerships Transit-Oriented Development

Page 5: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

OUR GOAL

To ground the comprehensive planning process in the economic realities of the local and regional market.

Page 6: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

OUR APPROACH

Economic and Demographic Statistics and Trends - Sandy Springs

Economic and Demographic Statistics and Trends - Atlanta MSA

For-Sale Housing

Rental Housing Hotels Office and

Industrial Retail

Analysis of Land Uses in Sandy Springs

North Springs MARTA Station

Future MARTA Station

Roswell Road PCID Powers

Ferry

Analysis of Small Areas within Sandy Springs

Page 7: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

OUR APPROACH

NOW NEXT 20 YEARS

• Who is here? • What land uses are here? • What are strengths, challenges,

opportunities, threats?

• Given demand for each type of real estate, what will this area capture?

• How could the city address strengths, challenges, opportunities, threats?

• What does this area ‘want’ to be?

FOR EACH SMALL AREA, WE ASKED:

NOW NEXT 20 YEARS

• How much is there? • What are the different types? • How is it performing? • What are strengths, challenges,

opportunities, threats?

• How much demand is there for more?

• Where should new supply go? • How could the city address strengths,

challenges, opportunities, threats?

FOR EACH LAND USE, WE ASKED:

Page 8: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC FINDINGS

Page 9: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

SANDY SPRINGS LOCATION

Strengths • Intersection of I-285 and GA-400 form

Atlanta’s “center of gravity” • North/South and East/West access • MARTA rail o For commuters o For business travelers

Challenges • Congestion • Transition from suburban to urban

Page 10: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

ATLANTA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

40,861 36,464

52,630

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Moody's Historical Avg. Annual Moody's Avg. Projected Growth ARC Region Avg. Projected Growth

Atlanta MSA Non-Agricultural Employment Growth, 1980-2035

Source: Moody's; Atlanta Regional Commission

Page 11: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

SANDY SPRINGS EMPLOYMENT

Employment Growth in Sandy Springs, 2015-2035

Source: Atlanta Regional Commission

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Empl

oyee

s Ad

ded

2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035

Page 12: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

Historical ARC Moody's Esri ARC trend Moody's trend Esri trend Historical trend

Source: Moody's, Atlanta Regional Commission, Esri Source: Moody's, Atlanta Regional Commission, Esri

Fulton County Household Projections, 2000-2035

Source: Moody's, Atlanta Regional Commission, Esri

Source: Moody’s, Atlanta Regional Commission, Esri, RCLCO

Page 13: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

AGE AND INCOME

4%

17% 21% 22%

18%

12% 7%

Under 25

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 and over

6%

22% 21% 17%

15% 11%

8%

Under 25

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 and over

30%

13% 18%

13% 14%

6% 6%

ATLANTA MSA SANDY SPRINGS

AGE

INC

OM

E

26%

13% 15%

12% 12%

6%

15%

Source: Esri Business Analyst

Page 14: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

RENTERS AND OWNERS BY AGE AND INCOME

Young Professionals

Mature Professionals Families Empty Nesters Retirees

Young Professionals

Mature Professionals Families Empty Nesters Retirees

18-34, No Kids 35-54, No Kids 18-64, Kids 55-64, No Kids 65+, No Kids 18-34, No Kids 35-54, No Kids 18-64, Kids 55-64, No Kids 65+, No Kids

964 1,751 923 786 775 42 146 160 128 908 6,5822.2% 3.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 2.0% 14.8%

3,046 1,223 1,465 485 1,031 136 448 269 569 1,318 9,9896.9% 2.8% 3.3% 1.1% 2.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% 3.0% 22.5%

1,049 973 1,019 84 667 115 327 194 302 480 5,2112.4% 2.2% 2.3% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 11.7%

724 321 208 126 137 235 428 213 298 499 3,1901.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% 7.2%

403 202 443 0 76 228 404 444 207 338 2,7460.9% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 6.2%

881 597 356 304 199 872 1,168 2,062 912 1,397 8,7482.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 2.0% 2.6% 4.6% 2.1% 3.1% 19.7%

37 55 168 142 176 91 413 1,162 610 639 3,4940.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 2.6% 1.4% 1.4% 7.9%

89 192 61 34 52 17 603 2,024 961 462 4,4940.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 4.6% 2.2% 1.0% 10.1%

7,193 5,316 4,643 1,961 3,113 1,736 3,937 6,528 3,986 6,041 44,45416.2% 12.0% 10.4% 4.4% 7.0% 3.9% 8.9% 14.7% 9.0% 13.6% 100.0%

TOTAL

TOTAL

$200K-$300K

$300K+

Renters Owners

Hou

seho

ld In

com

e

< $25K

$25K-$50K

$50K-$65K

$65K-$80K

$80K-$100K

$100K-$200K

Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013

Page 15: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

HOUSING STOCK

Owner Occupied

Units 47%

Renter Occupied

Units 53%

Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013; City of Sandy Springs

Sandy Springs Housing Units by Structure, 2013

Single-Family Homes, Condos,

Townhomes 58%

Apartment Units 42%

Sandy Springs Housing Units by Tenure, 2013

Page 16: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

RENTER AND OWNER HOUSEHOLD TYPES

2,565 2,565

476 2,165

548 877

10,372

2,507

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Married Couples with

Children

Married Couples without

Children

Male Householder, No Spouse, with Children

Female Householder, No Spouse, with Children

Male Householder, No Spouse, No Children

Female Householder, No Spouse, No Children

Single Householder Living Alone

Non-Family Household

with Roomate

4,766

7,432

122 381 191 531

5,419

807

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Married Couples with

Children

Married Couples without

Children

Male Householder, No Spouse, with Children

Female Householder, No Spouse, with Children

Male Householder, No Spouse, No Children

Female Householder, No Spouse, No Children

Single Householder Living Alone

Non-Family Household

with Roomate

Renters

Owners

Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013

Page 17: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

LAND USE FINDINGS

Page 18: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

FOR-RENT AND FOR-SALE HOUSING

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Units in Single-Family Structures Units in All Multifamily Structures

Atlanta MSA Residential Permitting Activity, 1990-2014

Source: HUD SOCDS

Page 19: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

FOR-RENT AND FOR-SALE HOUSING

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Units in Single-Family Structures Units in All Multifamily Structures

Sandy Springs Residential Permitting Activity, 2007-2014

Source: HUD SOCDS

Spike has resulted in moratorium on new rezoning applications

Page 20: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

RENTAL HOUSING

$977

$1,085

$1,421

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

Atlanta Class A Sandy Springs/Dunwoody Class A Buckhead Class A

Class A Asking Rental Rates, 2000-Q1 2015

Source: CoStar

The newest apartments in the Sandy Springs/Perimeter submarket are earning $1.77/SF to $1.97/SF.

Page 21: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: RENTAL HOUSING

Strengths • Up-and-coming location for new

apartments • Well positioned to attract professional

renters who are priced out of Buckhead • The newer apartments are well-maintained

and attractive • City Springs will be a compelling location

for new rental housing (walkable, live/shop/play)

• Easy commute to Perimeter Center

Challenges • Lack and price of available land • High land costs require developers to build

rental housing at higher densities, which typically requires rezoning

• Resident perception that the city already has its fair share of rental units makes approval of new development politically difficult

• Aging existing stock in certain areas • Moratorium on new rezoning applications could

impact the city’s reputation with developers and reduce the number of units built to meet demand long-term

Long-Term Opportunities: • More rental housing, particularly wrap product until prices support podium or

high-rise construction • Appeal to high-income professional singles, couples, and roommates • Secondary audience of more mature singles and couples and empty nesters

Page 22: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: RENTAL HOUSING CONTD.

Potential Future Locations in City • Close to office and retail • Close to MARTA rail and/or major transportation arterials

On average, RCLCO projects demand for 490-700 new rental units per year from 2015 to 2035. This means the potential to add 10,200 to 14,700 new rental units over the next 20 years.

New Product Characteristics • Rental housing built since 2014 is priced

at $1.77/SF to $1.97/SF • Wrap-style construction

2015-2035 2026-2035

Annual Demand Potential 450-700 525-700

Cumulative Demand Potential 5,000-7,800 5,300-6,900

Page 23: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

FOR-SALE HOUSING: PRICE BY TYPE

$50,000

$150,000

$250,000

$350,000

$450,000

$550,000

$650,000

$750,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Single Family Detached Townhome Condo

Average Sale Price by Product Type in Sandy Springs, 2005-2014

Source: Fulton County Assessors Office; Brokers and Websites for Actively Selling Communities

However, new product is priced significantly higher than the average:

Average Price for New Premium To All Sales Average Single-Family $864,000 + $200,000 Townhome $448,000 + $100,000 Condo $460,000 + $300,000

Page 24: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

FOR-SALE HOUSING: SFD PRICING

Single-Family Detached Home Sales by Price in Sandy Springs, 2005-2014

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Num

ber o

f Sal

es

$100K-$200K $200K-$400K $400K-$600K $600K-$800K

Source: Fulton County Assessors Office

Page 25: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: FOR-SALE HOUSING

Strengths • Top location for Atlanta buyers • Well-maintained, attractive housing stock • Plenty of tree cover and topography • Chattahoochee River scenery • Aging stock of townhomes and

condominiums provides affordable ownership opportunities

• Easy commute for Perimeter Center employees

Challenges • Lack and price of available land • Entry-level and middle income buyers priced

out • Most opportunity for new development is

based upon tearing down existing single-family homes in high-end areas, thus requiring the new home to be even higher priced than the one torn down

Long-Term Opportunities: • More for-sale housing of all types, including in particular:

• Denser townhomes and condominiums in walkable areas like City Center that will attract empty nesters and retirees

• Single-family detached homes built on smaller lots so that they are more affordable to buyers currently priced out of Sandy Springs

Page 26: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: FOR-SALE HOUSING CONTD.

Potential Future Locations in City • Close to the Chattahoochee River, land permitting • Within existing single-family neighborhoods

On average, RCLCO projects demand for 390-560 new for-sale units per year from 2015 to 2035. This means the potential to add 8,200 to 11,800 new for-sale units over the next 20 years.

New Product Characteristics There are a range of products and price points on offer in the market today:

Typical Price Typical Size (SF)

Condos $200K-$450K 800-1,800

Townhomes $300K-$450K 1,700-2,500

Entry Level/Small Lot Detached

$350K-$600K 1,850-3,500

Move-Up Detached

$600K-$950K 2,800-4,800

Luxury Detached $1.2M+ 4,000+

2015-2025 2026-2035

Annual Demand Potential

350-575 425-550

Cumulative Demand Potential

4,000-6,300 4,200-5,500

Page 27: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

OFFICE

$16.00

$18.00

$20.00

$22.00

$24.00

$26.00

$28.00

$30.00

$32.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015

Aver

age

Ren

t ($/

SF, F

ull S

ervi

ce)

Central Perimeter (Includes Sandy Springs) Upper Buckhead

Lower Buckhead Midtown

Downtown Atlanta Market

Office Rental Rates by Submarket, 2005-2015

Source: CoStar

Page 28: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: OFFICE

Strengths • Strong reputation in the market as the location of large company headquarters and the majority of

the office space in Perimeter Center • Strong outlook for Sandy Springs' largest office-using industries (business/professional services,

education and medical) • Planned infrastructure projects are expected to mitigate congestion near I-285 • Plenty of high-end, executive housing to attract business owners

Challenges • Limited space remains for campus style development and/or new development • Existing campus style developments are not particularly walkable, which limits the potential impact

of MARTA stations nearby • Providing housing for all income levels will be important for the long-term health of the PCID and

the office market overall

Long-Term Opportunities: • Continue to retain and expand business, insurance, and health/biotech tenants • Continue to densify Perimeter Center • Employers value transit access: pursue walkable TOD around MARTA stations

Page 29: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: OFFICE CONTD.

Potential Future Locations in City • PCID • Near MARTA rail stations • Powers Ferry • Medical center

On average, RCLCO projects demand for 200,000-360,000 SF of new office space per year from 2015 to 2035. This means the potential to add 4.2 million to 7.6 million SF of new office space over the next 20 years.

New Product Characteristics • Rents vary depending on the type of

office and the desirability of the location • Top Perimeter properties exceed $30/SF

gross (North Park, Concourse) • New office will likely be high rise and

dense • Could also be demand for locally-serving

office in mixed-use town centers that would be lower density

2015-2025 2026-2035

Annual Demand Potential (SF)

220,000-390,000 180,000-330,000

Cumulative Demand Potential (SF)

2.4M-4.3M 1.8M-3.3M

Page 30: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: INDUSTRIAL

Strengths • The industrial property in Sandy Springs is

100% occupied and has been since 2012

Challenges • Lack of existing industrial space makes it

difficult to attract new industrial users or for residents to accept more industrial uses

• Land values and rents are too high for industrial development

Long-Term Opportunities: • Industrial development should not be a priority for Sandy Springs

Page 31: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

$95

$100

$105

$110

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Occ

upan

cy (%

)

ADR

($)

ADR ($)

Occupancy (%)

HOTEL

Source: Smith Travel Research

Average Daily Rate and Occupancy for Perimeter Center/Roswell

Submarket, 2000-2014

Hotel Revenue ADR =

Rooms Booked

Page 32: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: HOTEL

Strengths • Perimeter Center generates significant

demand from business travelers • Hospitals also generate hotel demand • The same quality of life that attracts

businesses and residents is attractive to hotel guests

• Seen as a safe alternative, with good access, to downtown Atlanta for groups

• Well occupied

Challenges • Individual leisure travelers who visit Atlanta'

s major tourist attractions are not likely to stay in Sandy Springs, given the number of hotel options in downtown and Midtown

• Sandy Springs does not have significant meeting/convention space

Long-Term Opportunities: • Increase supply to:

• Meet demand from additional business travelers • Larger and newer meeting/event spaces will better serve corporate users

and other groups

Page 33: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: HOTEL CONTD.

Potential Future Locations in City • Office and medical cores (PCID, Powers Ferry) • Mixed-use centers and areas

On average, RCLCO projects demand for 410 new hotel rooms per year from 2015 to 2035. This means the potential to add 8,600 new hotel rooms over the next 20 years.

New Product Characteristics • Rates vary widely by hotel chain • The new Homewood Suites’ standard

rate is $150-200/night • Most new construction in Atlanta and

nationally is upper midscale and upscale hotel brands (e.g., Residence Inn, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton Inn)

2015-2025 2026-2035

Annual Demand Potential 390 430

Cumulative Demand Potential 4,300 4,300

Page 34: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

RETAIL

4.7% 6.2%

6.8%

12.9%

15.5%

17.6%

15.0%

9.9% 10.4%

6.7% 7.0% 6.6%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q 2015

2Q 2015

Vaca

ncy

Rat

e

SF o

f Ret

ail

Occupied SF Vacant SF Vacancy Rate

Occupied and Vacant Retail Space (All Types), Sandy Springs, 2005-2015

Source: CoStar

Page 35: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

RETAIL

Neighborhood Retail 37%

Community Retail 52%

Lifestyle Retail 11%

Sandy Springs Retail Supply by Gross Leasable Area, July 2015

Source: CoStar

Example: The Prado Example: Sandy Springs Plaza

Example: North River Shopping Center

Page 36: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: RETAIL

Strengths • High income population fuels the demand

for additional retail • Roswell Road has strong traffic counts • City Springs will help anchor and provide a

sense of place to the Roswell Road retail corridor that is currently lacking

• Several older shopping centers on Roswell Road are good candidates for redevelopment

Challenges • Through-commuters on Roswell Road do

not stop to shop but contribute to the congestion

• Challenging to compete with Perimeter Mall retail

• Some struggling shopping centers along Roswell Road are held in trusts, which makes them more difficult to rehab or redevelop

Long-Term Opportunity: • More neighborhood and community retail • Maintain and support “mom and pop” retailers • Unlikely that retailers in the mall area will expand or relocate to Sandy Springs,

although a mixed-use “town center” development may attract a few

Page 37: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN SUMMARY: RETAIL CONTD.

Potential Future Locations in City • Redevelopment of older underperforming shopping centers on Roswell Road • City Center • Powers Ferry • At or close to MARTA rail (transit-oriented development) On average, RCLCO projects demand for 35,000-50,000 SF of new retail per year from 2015 to 2035. This means the potential to add 735,000 to 1,050,000 SF of new retail over the next 20 years.

New Product Characteristics • The newest centers in the market lease

for an average of $25-$32/SF NNN • Average lease rates are approx. $18/SF

NNN • Strip centers and mixed-use town centers • Walkable with strong sense of place

2015-2025 2026-2035

Annual Demand Potential (SF)

32,000-51,000 38,000-49,000

Cumulative Demand Potential (SF)

320,000-560,000 380,000-490,000

Page 38: Market Analysis to Support Sandy Springs’ Comprehensive Plan …thenext10.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Presentation-Market... · Lee S. Sobel, Principal, Director of Public Strategies

IN FOCUS: SMALL AREA PLANS

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SMALL PLANNING AREAS

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NORTH SPRINGS MARTA STATION AREA

Apartments

Small Office

Apartments

Bus station/ Kiss 'N Ride parking lot

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture of Sandy

Springs # % # % Population 1,856 98,184 1.9% Households 929 44,454 2.1% # Owners 93 10% 19,824 45% 0.5% # Renters 835 90% 24,630 55% 3.4%

Employment* 1,031 108,740 0.9%

Small Area Sandy Springs Difference Median Age 29.8 36.3 -6.5 Avg HH Size 1.97 2.21 -0.2 Med HH Income $64,442 $65,913 -$1,471 Avg HH Income $91,681 $110,308 -$18,627 Med Home Value $229,167 $545,579 -$316,412 Avg Home Value $306,842 $608,038 -$301,196

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture Office Space 157,387 SF 26,487,711 SF 1% Retail Space 2,760 SF 6,567,389 SF 0% Multifamily Units 1,166 22,935 5% Hotel Rooms 0 2,865 0%

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NORTH SPRINGS MARTA STATION AREA

Strengths: • Transit already in place • Green, secluded, attractive for residential • Access to GA-400 • Adjacent to PCID Challenges: • All low rise development currently and it does not

relate well to the MARTA station, therefore land may be underutilized

• Limited pedestrian crossings • Current residents may not want additional

development/activity • Could distract/detract from PCID infill opportunities Opportunities: • Availability of undeveloped land • Addition of more office and/or retail to create more

of an activity node or extend PCID activity north • Creation of a mixed-use “town center”

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FUTURE MARTA STATION AREA

Schools

Apts

Industrial

Apts

Office

Retail

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture of Sandy

Springs # % # % Population 2,117 98,184 2.2% Households 997 44,454 2.2% # Owners 253 25% 19,824 45% 1.3% # Renters 744 75% 24,630 55% 3.0%

Employment* 4,294 108,740 3.9%

Small Area Sandy Springs Difference Median Age 33.6 36.3 -2.7 Avg HH Size 2.11 2.21 -0.1 Med HH Income $64,721 $65,913 -$1,192 Avg HH Income $83,547 $110,308 -$26,761 Med Home Value $337,500 $545,579 -$208,079 Avg Home Value $430,118 $608,038 -$177,920

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture Office Space 882,007 SF 26,487,711 SF 3% Retail Space 3,827 SF 6,567,389 SF 0% Industrial Space 100,000 SF 180,384 SF 55% Multifamily Units 796 22,935 3% Hotel Rooms 0 2,865 0%

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FUTURE MARTA STATION AREA

Strengths: • Access to GA-400 and Roswell Road • Would provide transit access for more residents • Surrounded by multiple different types of land uses Challenges: • There is limited opportunity for synergy between

the industrial uses and the proposed MARTA station

• Established single-family neighborhoods around the MARTA station limit the amount of TOD catalyzed by the new station

Opportunities: • Undeveloped land on Northridge Rd • Investment in placemaking around MARTA station • Could spur redevelopment of existing rental units

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POWERS FERRY

Office

Retail

Office

School

Trail connection

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture of Sandy

Springs # % # % Population 253 98,184 0.3% Households 86 44,454 0.2% # Owners 82 95% 19,824 45% 0.4% # Renters 4 5% 24,630 55% 0.0%

Employment* 5,699 108,740 5.2%

Small Area Sandy Springs Difference Median Age 51.8 36.3 15.5 Avg HH Size 2.96 2.21 0.8 Med HH Income $143,447 $65,913 $77,534 Avg HH Income $212,763 $110,308 $102,455 Med Home Value $1,000,001 $545,579 $454,422 Avg Home Value $1,008,133 $608,038 $400,095

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture Office Space 3,104,879 SF 26,487,711 SF 12% Retail Space 152,494 SF 6,567,389 SF 2% Multifamily Units 0 22,935 0% Hotel Rooms 296 2,865 10%

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POWERS FERRY

Strengths: • Affluent resident base • Significant employment node • Direct access to I-285 • Tightly defined area Challenges: • Land dominated by very low density office • High office vacancy (22%) • Poor pedestrian access to the river trail

(must drive and park) • Competing with both PCID and

Cumberland/Galleria for office and retail Opportunities: • Infill development around offices or

redevelopment of underutilized office campuses while preserving open space

• Better connection with and celebration of the river as part of area’s identity

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PERIMETER CENTER IMPROVEMENT DISTRICT

Medical Apts, Retail, Townhomes

Office

Office, Hotel Apts

Apts, Condo, Hotel

Retail, Apts

Office

Office Apts, Town-homes

Apts

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture of Sandy

Springs # % # % Population 4,152 98,184 4.2% Households 2,260 44,454 5.1% # Owners 998 44% 19,824 45% 5.0% # Renters 1,263 56% 24,630 55% 5.1%

Employment* 48,164 108,740 44.3%

Small Area Sandy Springs Difference Median Age 38.3 36.3 2.0 Avg HH Size 1.77 2.21 -0.4 Med HHIncome $75,625 $65,913 $9,712 Avg HH Income $98,047 $110,308 -$12,261 Med Home Value $333,446 $545,579 -$212,133 Avg Home Value $405,506 $608,038 -$202,532

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture Office Space 17,189,303 SF 26,487,711 SF 65% Retail Space 1,099,944 SF 6,567,389 SF 17% Multifamily Units 2,685 22,935 12% Hotel Rooms 1,883 2,865 66%

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PERIMETER CENTER IMPROVEMENT DISTRICT

Strengths: • City’s most valuable office, retail, hotel, and multifamily location • Strong area identity • Regional employment core • Adjacent to regional shopping destination • MARTA rail station Challenges: • No large undeveloped parcels remain • Congestion could drive away tenants and residents • Mobility of office tenants • Remaining relevant as an office destination with a large amount

of campus-style development Opportunities: • Better access and walkability to MARTA would make it a more

attractive commute option • Continued evolution of PCID as a world-class office destination • Addition of more residential to create a truly mixed-use

environment, including housing to attract a younger demographic

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ROSWELL ROAD - NORTH

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture of Sandy

Springs # % # % Population 7,561 98,184 7.7% Households 3,891 44,454 8.8% # Owners 1,206 31% 19,824 45% 6.1% # Renters 2,685 69% 24,630 55% 10.9%

Employment* 6,972 108,740 6.4%

Small Area Sandy Springs Difference Median Age 34.4 36.3 -1.9 Avg HH Size 1.92 2.21 -0.3 Med HH Income $51,331 $65,913 -$14,582 Avg HH Income $71,295 $110,308 -$39,013 Med Home Value $339,877 $545,579 -$205,702 Avg Home Value $388,993 $608,038 -$219,045

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture Office Space 1,725,070 SF 26,487,711 SF 7% Retail Space 1,554,603 SF 6,567,389 SF 24% Industrial Space 59,375 SF 180,384 SF 33% Multifamily Units 3,260 22,935 14% Hotel Rooms 0 2,865 0%

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ROSWELL ROAD - NORTH

Strengths: • Primary north/south corridor besides GA-400 • Wide range of land uses Challenges: • Limited street grid and GA-400 congestion worsens traffic • Aging stock of retail spaces and apartment complexes • Competes with the mall area for retailers • Poor pedestrian environment • Not receiving much investment currently • Long stretches of a single use (i.e., multifamily or retail) • Buildings set far back from road • Difficulty attracting new retailers Opportunities: • Redevelopment of aging apartments and shopping centers • Coalescence of community support for redevelopment • Better serve the retail needs of the more affluent

neighborhoods in/near the small area (e.g., Huntcliff and Grogan’s Bluff)

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ROSWELL ROAD - SOUTH

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture of Sandy

Springs # % # % Population 8,422 98,184 8.6% Households 3,142 44,454 7.1% # Owners 919 29% 19,824 45% 4.6% # Renters 2,223 71% 24,630 55% 9.0%

Employment* 2,656 108,740 2.4%

Small Area Sandy Springs Difference Median Age 30.2 36.3 -6.0 Avg HH Size 2.72 2.21 0.5 Med HH Income $48,334 $65,913 -$17,579 Avg HH Income $83,244 $110,308 -$27,064 Med Home Value $542,380 $545,579 -$3,199 Avg Home Value $580,305 $608,038 -$27,733

Small Area Sandy Springs Capture Office Space 480,451 SF 26,487,711 SF 2% Retail Space 1,098,349 SF 6,567,389 SF 17% Multifamily Units 3,523 22,935 15% Hotel Rooms 0 2,865 0%

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ROSWELL ROAD - SOUTH

Strengths: • Primary north/south corridor besides GA-

400 • Attracting more developer interest than

North Roswell Road (e.g., Gateway Sandy Springs)

• Adjacent to Buckhead • Multiple land uses Challenges: • Limited street grid and GA-400 congestion

worsens traffic • Competes with the mall area for retailers • Fairly developed – may be hard to find

land to continue redevelopment efforts Opportunities: • Redevelopment of aging apartments and

shopping centers