Mark Noll & Blake Atherton

Oil and Aid

Overview

(1) Research questions

(2) Hypotheses

(3) Methodology

(4) Results

(5) Conclusion (we don’t have one yet!)

Research Questions

a. Do oil-exporting nations receive more foreign aid than non-exporting nations?

b. Which donors, if any, tend to give out the most aid to these oil-wealthy nations and why?

Hypotheses

a. Oil-exporting nations receive more foreign aid than non-exporting nations

b. Oil-vulnerable donors give more aid to exporting nations than oil-secure donors do

Independent Variable: oil exportsDependent Variable: foreign aid received

Timeframe: 1986-2008

Oil-secure: Canada, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom, United StatesOil-vulnerable: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Spain

Methodology

Preliminary Results

a. Oil-exporting nations do receive more foreign aid than non-exporting nations

b. Oil-vulnerable donors give more aid to oil exporters than do oil-secure donors

Foreign Aid and Oil Exports

Controlling for Other Factors

Vulnerable vs. Secure Vulnerable:● Regression coefficient of .1534791● T value of 4.86

Secure: ● Regression coefficient of .07191● T value of 2.63

Caveats and Next Steps● Hone statistical methods

● Binary categories

● Still some selection bias

Questions

Questions?

Feedback?