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March – December 2000Observed by MOPITT, a Canadian instrument,
flying on the TERRA, a US/NASA satellite
The First Global Observations of CO from Space
Understanding the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants:
It’s not just for scientists any more!An OPAR Brown Bag, 10 April 2013
Presented by Terry Keating, PhD
• Hemispheric Transport and the Ozone NAAQS
• What is TF HTAP and what is it doing?
• What is the value-added by TF HTAP for OAR?
Observed
Implications of Transport for Air Quality Management
NAAQS
Your State
Other States
Natural
Implications of Transport for Air Quality Management
NAAQS
Your State
Other States
Can & Mexico
Intercontinental
Natural
Implications of Transport for Air Quality Management
• What are the magnitudes of each fraction?
• How will each fraction change in the future?
• How efficiently can each fraction be mitigated?
• What is an appropriate level of responsibility for mitigation in the downwind area? (CAA §179b)
• What policies and programs are needed to bring about mitigation of upwind sources?
NAAQS
“PRB”
Annual 4th Highest Daily Maximum 8-Hour Average Ozone Absent Anthropogenic Emissions from the United States, Canada, and Mexico
Simulated by GEOS-Chem for 2006-2008(i.e. North American Background, formerly known as PRB)
Zhang et al (2011) Atmospheric Environment, 45:6769
The last O3 NAAQS review considered a level of this metric between 60 and 70 ppb.
Seasonal Mean Maximum Daily 8-Hour Average OzoneSimulated by GEOS-Chem
“North American
Background”(Formerly known as PRB)
Canadian & Mexican
Influences
Influences from Anthropogenic
Emissions outside North America
From Zhang et al 2011
Obs (CASTNet/AQS) AM3/C180 total ozone AM3/C180 Asian ozone
Asian pollution contribution to high surface O3 events,confounding to attain tighter standard in WUS
June 212010
June 222010
Max daily 8-h average
Lin et al 2012
The Asian enhancement increases for total O3 in the 70-80 ppb range over Southern California, Arizona
25th
Lin et al 2012
Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution
• An expert group established in 2004 by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP)
• Co-Chaired by the European Commission (Dr. Frank Dentener, Joint Research Centre) & the United States (Dr. Terry Keating, EPA/OAR)
• Phase 1: 2005-2010, culminated in first comprehensive assessment of HTAP
• Phase 2: 2011-2016, working to improve the resolution of our assessment
www.htap.org
What is the TF HTAP?
12
What is the TF HTAP?
Red border indicates U.S. participation.
Parties to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution
LRTAP was formed in 1979 under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.
Parties to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air PollutionAnd Other Participants in TF HTAP
Approximately 750 individual scientists have taken part in at least one TF HTAP activity since 2005. Less than 10% have received specific funding support from EPA or EC.
• There is a large spread across models. The ensemble mean generally captures observed monthly mean surface O3 but there are notable biases.
• Simulation of O3 is generally good in early spring and late fall when intercontinental transport is largest.
Mediterranean Central Europe < 1km Central Europe > 1km
NE USA SW USA SE USA
JapanMountainous W USAGreat Lakes USA
Mon
thly
Mea
n Su
rfac
e O
zone
(ppb
)
HTAP 2010 FindingsCan current global models adequately simulate intercontinental transport of ozone?
NAEU
EASA
HTAP 2010 Findings
Source-Receptor Sensitivity Simulations: • Base Year 2001• Decrease emissions of precursors in each region by 20%• Compare effects of different combinations of precursors• Approximately 30 modeling groups from around the
world participated
Do current global models produce similar estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships?
Ozone Source-Receptor Analysis under HTAPchange in monthly mean O3 due to 20% reduction of NOX, VOC, and CO emissions
24 (+8) models contribute results; 14 models complete full set
N. American Emissions
European Emissions
South Asian Emissions
East Asian Emissions
HTAP 2010 Findings
How has surface O3 changed?
How well does this match observations?
1974-2004 trend: Obs 0.15 ppb/yr, Mod 0.13 ppb/yr
1989-2007 trend: Obs 0.17 ppb/yr, Mod -0.03 ppb/yr
Wild, et al 2013
HTAP 2010 Findings
Role of CH4 in Future O3 Scenarios
O3 Change in 4 RCP Scenarios
CH4, Regional, & ImportedComponents of O3 Change in “High” Scenario
Components of O3 Change in “Low” Scenario
Linearized results of 6 models:
CH4 is an important determinant of future O3 levels, potentially offsetting benefits of regional controls.
HTAP 2010 Findings
Work Plan for 2012-2016The focus of the Task Force’s work remains on characterizing regional vs. extra-regional influences on air quality and its impacts.
While HTAP 2010 presented the significance of intercontinental transport with very coarse resolution, our goal now is to improve the resolution of that picture by linking analyses at the global and regional scale.
Overall Objectives of Work Plan1. Deliver Policy Relevant Information to the LRTAP Convention,
Other Multi-Lateral Forums, and National Governments2. Improve Our Scientific Understanding of Air Pollution at the
Global to Hemispheric Scale
3. Build a Common Understanding by Engaging Experts Inside and Outside the LRTAP Convention
Current Work Plan
Themes of Cooperative Activities Under TF HTAPCurrent Work Plan
1. Emissions & Projections
2. Source/Receptor & Source Apportionment 3. Model/Observation
& Process Evaluation
4. Impacts on Health, Ecosystems, & Climate 5. Impact of Climate
Change on Pollution
6. Data Network & Analysis Tools Polic
y-Re
leva
nt S
cien
ce P
rodu
cts
&
Out
reac
h
> 35 Work Packages identified, each with a volunteer leader.
Emissions & ProjectionsCurrent Work Plan
22
• 2008 & 2010 Global Emissions Mosaics (WP1.1)– JRC is compiling a new global emissions consistent with regional modeling
inventories being used in the United States, Europe, and Asia.– Expecting model ready emissions information by July 1, 2013.
HTAPv2
• 2010-2030 Emissions Scenarios (WP1.2)– IIASA is developing 3 benchmark scenarios with explicit air pollution controls:
• Current Legislation, No Further Control, Maximum Feasible Reduction– Based on IEA energy projections, OAP has provided input on CH4 emissions– Will serve as basis for discussion about available control strategies
Emissions & ProjectionsCurrent Work Plan
Source-Receptor Analyses• Common Specification of Regions in a 2 Tier System
Status of HTAP Efforts
Tier 1 = 16 regions
Tier 2 = 60 regions
Source-Receptor Analyses• Nesting of Regional Analyses Within Global Analyses
– Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase II, covering regional domains in North America and Europe
• Led by Christian Hogrefe (ORD) and Stefano Galmarini (JRC)– Model Inter-Comparison Study – Asia Phase III, covering regional domains in
Asia• Led by Greg Carmichael (U Iowa), Zifa Wang (Chinese Academy of
Sciences), and Hajime Akimoto (Asian Center for Air Pollution Research, Japan)
• Comparison of Source Apportionment and Sensitivity Techniques• Led by Daven Henze (U Colorado)
– Emission Perturbation Analysis– Adjoint Modeling– Pollutant Tagging– Artificial Tracers
Current Work Program
2008-2010 Emissions
Global Base Modeling Regional Base
Modeling
Method Comparison
Parameterization
Model-Obs Analysis
Impact Assessments
2010-2030 Scenarios
Impacts of Mitigation
Deliver July 1
Deliver July?
Start Sept
Start Oct
Start Jan 2014
Start Oct-Jan
Start July
Global – Regional Perturbations
Start Jun 2014
Start Oct-Jan
Work Flow and Timeline
Workshop?
Current Work Program
Model-Observation EvaluationsCase Study on Import to Western North America (WP3.2) Led by Owen Cooper (NOAA)
Status of HTAP Efforts
Impact Assessment Methods• Human Health Effects
– Led by Jason West (UNC) with Susan Anenberg (EPA/OAR/OAQPS)– Building upon the Global Burden of Disease Study
• Ecosystem Effects– Led by Lisa Emberson (SEI-York)– Building upon the work of LRTAP Working Group on Effects
• Climate Effects– Led by Bill Collins (Reading Univ, UK)– Moving beyond radiative forcing and global temperature changes
• Proposed Workshop on Impact Assessment Methods– Pune, India?– Potential to link to Male Declaration, ABC-Asia, CCAC, and other UNEP
activities
Status of HTAP Efforts
Status of HTAP Efforts
Value-Added of TF HTAP for OAR• Filling Gaps in U.S. Program
• E.g., global emissions inventories and air pollution control scenarios
• Value of the Model Ensemble and Community Effort• A single model will give you an answer, but you don’t know how good it is.• Approach and results have gone through some peer vetting in an open process.
• Ability to Focus Research on Policy-Relevant Questions• The science community wants to be useful to the policy community.
• Products have many uses at both the global and regional scale.• E.g., Arctic transport, data networking, observational data collections
• Low Investment, High Yield• 10:1 payoff for meeting costs. 3:1 leveraging for infrastructure investments.
• Building relationships and technical capacities.• Country to Country, Science to Policy, Scientist to Scientist
• Creating a Foundation for Decision-making and Action
Why TF HTAP?
Summer 1990-2010 Rural ozone trends
significant increase
insignificant increase
significant decrease
insignificant decrease
Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long-term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307
Spring 1990-2010 Rural ozone trends
significant increase
insignificant increase
significant decrease
insignificant decrease
Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long-term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307
Free tropospheric ozone trend above western North Americain April & May 1984-2011
All available data above western North America, regardless of transport history, including observations by ballons (sondes) and commercial and research aircraft. All measurements were made between 3.0 – 8.0 km above sea level during April-May.
Ozone above the surface has increased by 29% from 1984-2011. Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long-term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307
95%
67 %
50%33%
5 %
significant increase
insignificant increase
significant decrease
insignificant decrease
Surface ozone trends, beginning 1990-1999 and ending 2000-2010.All trends are from the peer-reviewed literature.
From Owen Cooper (NOAA) for IPCC AR5
Average NO2 Column From Space April-May 1996-1998 (GOME)
From Cooper, 2013
Average NO2 Column From Space
Seasonal Average NO2 Column (Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct) with Annual Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (in black) from 1995 to 2011
April-May 2009-2011 (SCHIAMACHY)
From Cooper, 2013
