March 2021 National Survey

Part B – Federal Vote

Part A - Federal Vote

Embargoed till Feb. 22 2021 6a

EST

Methodology

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted over two days including March 21st and 22nd 2021, among a sample of 1939 adults, 18 years of age or older Canadians. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Canada according to Census 2016.

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.23% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

The frame consisted of Mainstreet Research’s commercial directory which includes both current landlines and past directories ported to cellular lines. It also includes an RDD component. The Directory components are 30% cellular lines and 70% landlines. The RDD component was 80% cellular lines and 20% landlines.

The results are weighted for age, gender and region. The poll was commissioned by Ipolitics.

* Note that Mainstreet Research removed the prompoted option for the People’s Party starting in this survey and added “other” to the gender options to reflect non binary gender opinions

Methodology*

If the federal election were held

today, which party would you vote for?

If the federal election were held

today, which party would you vote for?

If the federal election were held

today, which party would you vote for?

If the federal election were held

today, which party would you vote for?

If the federal election were held

today, which party would you vote for?

If the federal election were held

today, which party would you vote for?

[Responses in each question were randomized]

Q1: If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?Press 1 for the Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau (ROUTE TO Q3)Press 2 for the Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin O’Toole (ROUTE TO Q3)Press 3 for the Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet (ROUTE TO Q3 – QUEBEC ONLY)Press 4 for the New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh (ROUTE TO Q3)Press 5 for the Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul (ROUTE TO Q3)Press 7 for another Party (ROUTE TO Q3)Press 7 if you are undecided (ROUTE TO Q2)

Q2: And which party are you leaning towards? Press 1 for the Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin TrudeauPress 2 for the Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin O’ToolePress 3 for the Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet (Quebec only)Press 4 for the New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet SinghPress 5 for the Green Party of Canada led by Annamie PaulPress 7 for another PartyPress 8 if you are undecided

Continued, Part B and C

Questionnaire