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Economic Impacts of Hurricane Sandy on New Jersey The Economy Before and After the Superstorm
2014
Nathan Naimark Prof. Kim Christensen
3/12/2014
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Table of Contents Timeline of Sandy ..................................................................................................................................................... 3
Unemployment and Demographics ................................................................................................................... 7
Unemployment .................................................................................................................................... 7
Before Sandy ................................................................................................................................... 7
After Sandy....................................................................................................................................... 9
By County ......................................................................................................................................... 9
Income and Poverty ....................................................................................................................... 12
By County ...................................................................................................................................... 12
Largest Industries ........................................................................................................................... 14
Age ........................................................................................................................................................ 15
By County ...................................................................................................................................... 15
Housing ............................................................................................................................................... 15
Before Sandy ................................................................................................................................ 16
After Sandy.................................................................................................................................... 16
Overall Demographics ................................................................................................................... 17
Community Hardship ................................................................................................................ 18
Housing Hardship ....................................................................................................................... 20
Lost Wages .................................................................................................................................... 22
Lost Business................................................................................................................................ 23 Market Sectors ........................................................................................................................................................ 24
Tourism ............................................................................................................................................... 24
Before Sandy ................................................................................................................................ 24
Short Run ....................................................................................................................................... 25
Long Run ........................................................................................................................................ 25
Auto Sales ........................................................................................................................................... 26
Before and During Sandy ......................................................................................................... 26
Short Run ....................................................................................................................................... 27
Long Run ........................................................................................................................................ 28
Gasoline ............................................................................................................................................... 30
Before and During Sandy ......................................................................................................... 30
After Sandy.................................................................................................................................... 31
Repair................................................................................................................................................... 31
Before Sandy ................................................................................................................................ 31
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After Sandy.................................................................................................................................... 32 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................ 33
Works Cited .............................................................................................................................................................. 37
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Timeline of Sandy
Starting on Sunday, October 28, 2012, New York and New Jersey started
preparing for the upcoming storm. By 7:00 PM, all of the subway lines and public
railroads in New York City were closed down, as well as bus service ending at 9:00
PM. By 2:00 AM Monday morning, New Jersey had also shut down trains and buses,
in addition to the PATH train that commutes into New York City. By early Monday
morning, President Obama had signed emergency declarations for five states and
Washington, D.C. Mandatory evacuations were also underway in New Jersey.
It was estimated, based on a computer program, that 8-10 million people
would lose power during the storm, and, by 10 AM Monday morning, 12,000 people
were already in the dark. Just hours later, it was reported that Atlantic City and Cape
May had 8.3 and 8.9 inches of flooding, respectively. Casinos started to close down,
and emergency evacuations started for those who had not heeded the warnings. By
6:45 P.M., the eye of the storm made landfall. By this point, New Jersey, as well as
surrounding areas, had basically ground to a halt. The New Jersey Turnpike, which
carries cars from Southwest New Jersey to Northeast New Jersey, had been shut
down for hours, along with public transportation, airports, and most emergency
services. At this point, roughly 700,000 homes and businesses no longer had power
("Sandy's Destruction: Live Updates on the Superstorm's Aftermath.").
By the early hours of the morning on Tuesday, over 6.5 million people had
lost power in thirteen states and the capitol due to Hurricane Sandy. In the small
town of Moonachie, New Jersey, the majority of the streets are flooded with at least
four feet of water, affecting at least 1,000 people. By 8:00 A.M., it was estimated that
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over seven million people in the Northeast were living without power. It was also
been announced by Newark’s Mayor Cory Booker, that it would take days to restore
power to Newark, most of which lacked electricity.
Along Jersey’s Atlantic City,
most storefront windows were broken,
boardwalks ripped up, and roads
covered in debris. It was also estimated
that 80% of the city was underwater
during high tide. The most affected
area was the southern coastline,
stretching from Atlantic City down to
Cape May. On the evening of Tuesday, October 30th, Amtrak announced that service
between North and South Jersey would resume, with trains going to and from
Newark and various southern towns. Later in the day, it became known that NJ
TRANSIT’s Rail Operation Center, which controls a large amount of the rail system,
had flooded, damaging emergency generators, backup power, and the main
computer system ("Sandy's Destruction: Live Updates on the Superstorm's Aftermath.").
By Wednesday night, over 19,500 flights had been cancelled, with another
500 cancellations expected for the rest of the week. On a positive note, Public
Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G), which services electricity to 2.2 million
homes in New Jersey, announced that they had restored power to nearly half of its
customers, and the remaining 780,000 who lost power would see their lights come
back on in the next few days ("PSE&G Storm Update."). By Thursday at noon, 4.6
Foundations and pilings are all that remain of brick buildings and a boardwalk in Atlantic City, N.J., Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012, after they were destroyed by Hurricane Sandy. Seth Wenig/AP.
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million people remained without power in the Northeast, about 40% of them New
Jerseyans ("Sandy's Destruction: Live Updates on the Superstorm's Aftermath.").
As the storm died down, the numbers came in: At the height of the storm, 8.5
million people had lost power, 2.6 million of whom were New Jerseyans (Halpin).
Ninety-three deaths in Canada and the U.S. had been attributed to Sandy, only
fourteen of them in New Jersey ("Sandy's Destruction: Live Updates on the
Superstorm's Aftermath."). When Sandy officially made landfall, the diameter of the
storm was 820 miles across, more than double the last two Northeast hurricanes
combined. The storm pummeled the coast with winds over eighty-five miles per
hour, with some reaching 100 mph. In addition, the previous rainfall records for the
area were shattered, with Atlantic City receiving over double the previous record
from 1908. All of this rain caused storm surges, some of which reached as high as
13.3 feet in Sandy Hook, New Jersey (Grieser). In the next few weeks following the
storm, lights flickered back on in most households. According to the aid group
Rebuilding Together, 350,000 homes were damaged in New Jersey during the storm,
275,000 of which were uninsured. In the digital age, it is rare that cities stop
moving. Yet Sandy managed to slow that bustle for a few days. Public transportation
was shut down in many cities across the eastern seaboard, flights in several states
were cancelled and delayed, and millions of people lost power, Internet, and
communication with one another. Even the New York Stock Exchange closed for two
consecutive days, the first time in over 100 years (Webley). Hurricane Sandy ground
the East coast to a halt, something that would affect all of its residents, but would be
especially difficult for low-wage workers.
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Source: Halpin
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Unemployment and Demographics
Unemployment
Before Sandy
Since 2008, the national economy has been extremely unsteady. The
unemployment rate has skyrocketed while income has plummeted; millions of
homes were foreclosed; billions of dollars in investments vanished. Since then, the
economy has slowly been recovering, inching towards stabilization. Some states in
particular have been healing much slower than others. One of these slow-healing
states is New Jersey, where the unemployment rate has been steadily 2% above the
national average (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
To understand how Hurricane Sandy affected the New Jersey economy, it is
essential to examine data from before the storm. For the state of New Jersey, things
were not exactly at their best. Since October 2007, the unemployment rate had been
increasing steadily nearly every month. By August 2012, two months before
Hurricane Sandy hit, the unemployment rate was 9.7%, the highest it had been since
1977 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
This is a crucial piece of information, as it means that, at the very least, one in
ten people did not have a solid source of income. The actual number is much higher,
of course, due to the way the employment rate is measured. In reality, workers who
receive minimum wage don’t receive a living wage; these workers may still be
struggling to stay on their feet, despite their employed status. . Another issue that
occurs when measuring the unemployment rate this way is the fact that many
workers simply drop out of the labor force due to not being able to find a job. They
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are classified as ‘discouraged workers’, and because they are not actively looking for
a job, they are not counted as unemployed, despite not having a job. People of color
and women are more likely to be discouraged workers than white males (BLS).
By the time the storm hit in late October, the unemployment rate was only a
bit lower than at its worst, sitting at 9.6%. Nearly 20% of New Jersey’s 4.2 million
workers were employed in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities in October 2012.
Government and Professional Services each made up about 16% of New Jersey’s
jobs. Education and Healthcare, a growing field in New Jersey, also made up about
16% of employment. Leisure and Hospitality was the fifth largest sector in New
Jersey’s economy at the time of the storm, employing 346,100 citizens (U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics).
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Trade, Transportation,
and Utilities 21%
Government 16%
Professional Services
16%
Education and Healthcare
16%
Leisure and Hospitality
9% Other 4% Finance
7%
Information 2%
Manufacturing 6%
Construction 3%
Mining and Logging
0%
Other 11%
New Jersey Job Breakdown, October 2012
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After Sandy
In October 2013, the New Jersey unemployment rate was 8.4%, down 1.2%
from the previous year. A further look reveals that while the number of persons
employed ticked up by just over 3,500, the number of people in the labor force
dropped by 57,000 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). This is the primary reason for
the decrease in the rate; if those who can not find a job simply drop out of the labor
force, the unemployment rate becomes artificially low.
The most recent results, which represent December 2013, show that the
unemployment rate in New Jersey is 7.3%. Again, this is misleading; in just two
months, from October to December, 56,400 people dropped out of the labor force
while 2,500 lost their jobs. This is a clear example of how misleading the official
unemployment rate can be.
By County
Even more important than the unemployment rate of New Jersey as a whole
is the county information. There are twenty-one counties in New Jersey, nine of
which border the Atlantic Ocean. Within New Jersey, unemployment varies greatly
by count, as it always has. Hunterdon County, located in the western part of the
state, had an unemployment rate of just 6.7%, lower than the national average at the
time. Cumberland County, on the other hand, had an unemployment rate of 13.3%,
over five points up from the national average (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
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County Population Unemployment Atlantic 274,338 10.8% Bergen 911,004 8.1% Burlington 449,576 9.2% Camden 513,241 10.7% Cape May 96,601 11.8% Cumberland 157,095 13.3% Essex 785,137 11% Gloucester 289,184 10% Hudson 641,224 10.5% Hunterdon 128,038 6.7% Mercer 367,063 7.8% Middlesex 814,217 8.5% Monmouth 631,020 8.7% Morris 494,976 7.1% Ocean 579,396 10% Passaic 502,007 11% Salem 65,902 10.2% Somerset 324,893 7.5% Sussex 148,517 8.3% Union 539,494 9.6% Warren 108,339 7.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
New Jersey’s largest county is Bergen, which is home to just under one
million people. On the flipside, Cape May is the smallest county in New Jersey, home
to just under 100 thousand residents. These two counties are essentially the
opposite of each other, despite being in the same state. Bergen is located in the
Northeast of the state, sitting just across the Hudson River from New York’s
Westchester County. Bergen’s largest sector is healthcare (U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics). Cape May is a Southern coastal county, which largely depends on tourism
to fuel the economy.
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These two counties’ economies operate in completely different ways from
each other. Bergen’s economy largely stays steady throughout the entire year, as
healthcare and professional services are required during all of the seasons. Cape
May, on the other hand, only has a strong economy in the summertime. As tourists
show up, the demand for services– hotels, restaurants, etc. – increases, bringing in
more employment. Thus, in the wintertime, unemployment skyrockets. In January
2012, the unemployment rate was recorded at 19.2%; by August, it was down to
9.1%.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13
Une
mpl
ymen
t Rat
e (%
)
Unemployment Rate, Cape May County
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Income and Poverty
Other indicators to examine are median income and income per capita.
Median household income is measured by lining up the income of each household in
the county from least to greatest and choosing the one that lies in the middle. This
means that half of the households in Hunterdon County earn more than $100,000
(U.S. Department of Commerce).
Income per capita is measured by taking the total income and dividing it by
the population. In other words, income per capita is the income everyone would
have if every dollar earned was distributed equally. There is also a large gap in
poverty rates and incomes between the counties. The poverty rate is determined by
how many households are currently under the threshold according to the U.S.
Census Bureau. The threshold is set at roughly $23,000 a year for a family of four
(Department of Health and Human Services). This is important to examine because
families living in poverty will have a more difficult time dealing with damaged
housing and loss of income.
By County
Some counties, such as Morris, Somerset, and Hunterdon, have low poverty
rates and high median incomes. In all of these counties, the poverty rate is less than
4%, while the median income is more than $90,000. But in Atlantic, Essex, and
Cumberland County, there is a very different picture. The median income in all of
these counties hovers just above $50,000, while poverty rates are at least 10.5%.
Overall, New Jersey’s median household income has stayed relatively steady since
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2005; it reached its peak in 2008 at $75,000, just before the recession hit, and has
since fallen below $70,000 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Atlantic Essex Cumberland Morris Somerset Hunterdon
Median Income, New Jersey Counties 2012
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
16.0%
Atlantic Essex Cumberland Morris Somerset Hunterdon
Poverty Rate, New Jersey Counties 2012
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County Median Income
Poverty Rate
Atlantic $50,829 10.8% Bergen $79,272 5% Burlington $72,896 3.5% Camden $57,784 9.9% Cape May $53,256 6.6% Cumberland $51,548 12.1% Essex $51,009 14.4% Gloucester $71,850 5.1% Hudson $56,546 14.1% Hunterdon $99,099 2.9% Mercer $73,890 7.6% Middlesex $74,522 5.9% Monmouth $79,334 5.4% Morris $91,332 2.6% Ocean $56,929 8.4% Passaic $52,382 13.7% Salem $53,926 10.4% Somerset $96,360 3.6% Sussex $83,839 4.3% Union $66,398 8.2% Warren $66,594 6.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Largest Industries Knowing the largest industries in each county is significant because a county
with a large healthcare sector will react differently to a natural disaster than a
county with a large tourism sector. Many counties that are located along the coast,
such as Cape May County and Atlantic County, have tourism as mainstays of their
economies. Other counties largely rely on food services, professional services, and
healthcare for their main sectors.
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Age Another big factor in how Hurricane Sandy affected citizens is age. Senior
citizens, for example, are far less mobile than younger people. In other words, it is
much easier for a 30-year-old to move across the state than for an 85-year-old to do
the same. The elderly, as well as young children, tend to need more care than, say, a
30-year-old; It takes more energy and resources to care for them. Age is important
because when people are young, they generally do not have much in their savings
account, and they might only have an entry-level job. On the opposite side of the
spectrum, retired workers would have to dip into their savings to rebuild or relocate
after a storm, possibly without a source of income other than Social Security (U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics).
By County
The majority of counties in New Jersey have similar age distributions. The
percentage of people under 18 years old is typically around 22%, while the rate of
people over 65 is usually under 15%. This leaves adults aged 18-64, who make up
about 60% of the population. But in some coastal counties, these proportions do not
represent reality. In Cape May, for instance, nearly 23% of all residents are over 65,
while just 18% are under 18.
Housing The last variable to examine is housing. There are several aspects of housing
that are useful, such as the number of housing units and homeownership rates.
Housing units measure the number of homes that are there, while homeownership
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rate measures how many homes are rented in comparison to owned. The reason
why these two ideas are important is because, in theory, many houses would be
destroyed by the hurricane. The family then has the option of rebuilding, moving in
with someone else, or occupying a vacant house.
Before Sandy
According to a five-year estimate, there are about 3.1 million households in
New Jersey with an average of 2.7 people per household. This essentially means that
there are 3.1 million families living all across New Jersey. The homeownership rate
is only 66%, meaning that out of every three households, one family does not own
its house. This can mean a few things, most commonly that they are renters. Other
possibilities include being owned by the bank or someone else, such as a friend or a
relative. Housing is important to examine because of the destruction that the
hurricane brought; it may be a completely different process for moving, repairs, and
insurance (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
After Sandy
In New Jersey alone, roughly 350,000 homes were damaged ("Rebuilding
after Sandy."). This fact, on its own, is huge. A house is not just a house, though.
When the storm damages houses, it damaged the belongings of the family as well.
Art, furniture, televisions, and more were all destroyed along with roofs and walls.
How can a family rebuild their life when all of their possessions have been washed
away? To make matters worse, most of these homes were uninsured, meaning that
families would not be compensated for their losses.
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Insurance
In the six months following the hurricane, insurance money has trickled in
slowly for most New Jersey residents. In many cases, families had to wait until
January to receive $15,000 in flood insurance, and had to wait even longer for banks
to approve it. One family says that to comply with FEMA’s new flood maps, they
must elevate their home; the problem is, that could cost up to $100,000, nearly 50%
of their house’s worth. They are in a catch-22 however, due to the fact that their
premiums will rise if they do not make these changes. (Rogers)
As of October 20th, 2013, the insurers had approved $7.8 billion in flood programs
for policyholders. Nearly everyone (92%) who made a claim received some money,
the average check begin just under $55,000 (Caruso). From the days following
Sandy until now, many people have been fighting with their insurance companies,
trying to get enough money to fully compensate for the damage that was done.
On the bright side, the economy sees a small jump when insurance money
comes rolling in. Generally, people dig into their savings while they are waiting for
their insurance money to come through. Many people, however, end up spending
some of their insurance paycheck, rather than build their nest egg once more
(Tuttle). As of late 2013, insurance has paid $6.5 billion dollars; the total damages
exceed $7.8 billion for residents alone (Halpin).
Overall Demographics
Regarding demographics, New Jersey was home to about 8.86 million people
in 2012, the majority of whom were aged 45-49. At over $71,000, the median family
income was nearly $20,000 above that of the entire United States. The average
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poverty rate of New Jersey is 9.9%, far under the average for the U.S. The average
person from New Jersey is a white woman, around 40 years old, making just under
$50,000 a year (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). While $50,000 is a good income, it
does not meet the average cost of living for a family of four in New Jersey, which is
$64,000 at the very least (Lichtenstein). In general, the economy of New Jersey was
not in a very good position when Hurricane Sandy struck. After the recession hit,
jobs were lost, salaries were slashed, funding was cut, and houses were lost. New
Jersey had just been beginning to turn itself around when Hurricane Sandy struck
the coast.
Community Hardship
In a Rutgers University Study, it was concluded that the area with the hardest
hit community was Monmouth County, followed by Ocean County. These rankings
were determined by an equation that took power loss, damage to homes and
businesses, emergency shelters, and gasoline shortages into account. Most of the
counties with the highest Community Hardship Index were located on the coast, and
several of inland counties saw relatively little damage (Halpin).
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Source: Halpin
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Source: Halpin
Housing Hardship Similar to the Community Hardship Index, the Household Hardship Index
measures how the hurricane affected daily life for a family. The calculation was
based on days without power. Those days without power then translated to days of
lost wages, assuming power loss means loss of income. The equation also took into
account the percentage of residents with homeowners’ insurance, as well as average
aid awarded by FEMA (Halpin).
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Source: Halpin
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Source: Halpin
Lost Wages
Every day, there are people who do their jobs in an almost invisible fashion.
These people– janitors, newspaper sellers on the corner, deliverymen– all suffered
terribly (Futrelle). Most businesses were closed for the duration of the storm, with
some remaining closed for repairs afterwards. If these people can’t work, they can’t
get paid. For some– the CEO, the stockbroker– a pause in pay is not a big deal. The
fact is that most of those receiving minimum-wage-grade pay; a week or two of
income can mean not having a place to live next month.
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Low paid workers were definitely still affected through 2013. While many
faced loss of income during the storm, the end result was worse: loss of housing. For
families living on or below the poverty line, repairs were next to impossible. Some
middle and upper class families were able to shell out a few thousand dollars in
savings, as well as reimbursement from insurers. But if one had no insurance or
savings, rebuilding proved difficult. Luckily, as the aid trickled in, so did ways to get
the aid. Some programs, listed on the New Jersey Government website, pay up to
$150,000 for help to renovate after the storm; other programs supported small
businesses ("Governor Christie's Recovery Initiatives.").
Lost Business
Unfortunately, it’s not just workers who are hurt. Many businesses lost
customers during the storm, as well as when power was out. In addition, if flooding
and damage occurred, businesses must first fix those issues before starting to bring
in income again. Restaurants are one example, as even when the lights flicker back
on, people don’t typically eat an additional meal for every one that they missed
during the storm. The airline industry is another example of lost business; over
20,000 flights were cancelled (Keams).
On the other hand, many retailers and car dealerships saw most, if not all, of
their profits return in the months following the storm. There are three main reasons
for this, the first being that people had to replace what was destroyed. If someone
doesn’t have a car, they can’t get to work, and if they can’t work, they can’t earn
money. Another reason is that, once again, people tend to spend their insurance
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money rather than save it. Lastly, with the holiday season right around the corner,
many people splurged as usual on their friends and families.
Market Sectors
Tourism
Before Sandy
Tourism is a very large industry in New Jersey. In 2011, New Jersey
welcomed 80 million visitors; these visitors spent a total of $38 billion. This is a
large indication that the economy was picking up again from the recession, as it is
close to its peak in 2007.
Tourism related employment
made up 312,000, paying
workers a total of $9.56 billion
in wages. When adding the
“indirect” tourist jobs, the
number of jobs increases to
486,000, roughly 10% of all
jobs in New Jersey (Fletcher). To
make matters worse, the hurricane hit the Shore the hardest, the area that brings in
the majority of revenue for the tourism industry. Boardwalks were ripped up, sand
was washed away, and shops caved in from wind and rain. The amusement park by
the shore was destroyed, with the rollercoaster even ending up in the ocean (Parry).
A roller coaster sits in the Atlantic Ocean after the Fun Town pier was destroyed by Superstorm Sandy on November 1, 2012 in Seaside Heights, NJ. Mark Wilson/Getty Images.
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Short Run
The tourism sector had a lot of work to do in the first half of 2013. With the
Shore wiped out, repair crews set out to assist the beach towns in being ready for
Memorial Day weekend. Governor Chris Christie also helped by holding press
releases encouraging people to visit the Shore during the summer months. Christie
also set out to advertise the comeback after Sandy. Ads played as far as the Midwest
on radio and television, showing off how far New Jersey has come in six short
months (Antonucci). Tourism maintained relatively low numbers compared to
previous years, regardless of the advertising campaign.
Hurricane Sandy really hurt the tourism industry in the short run. There is no
way to regain all of the revenues lost in the immediate months following the storm.
Luckily, the autumn and winter months are much less busy than the spring and
summer. Business is usually slow for many of the coastal towns from November
through March. As tourists and people with summer homes leave, jobs disappear as
well. In some coastal towns, the unemployment rate can vary from 7-9% in the
summer to 15-20% in the winter (Henry; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Therefore,
much of the challenge for the industry was making sure that everything was rebuilt
and ready for the busy season by Memorial Day.
Long Run
Overall, the goal of rebuilding the Jersey Shore before Memorial Day was
mostly met. In a press conference on April 18th, 2013, New Jersey Governor Chris
Christie announced that he’d heard from many businesses that they were open and
ready for tourists. Many small business and bed and breakfast owners also stated
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that, despite being open not too long after Sandy ended, they have hardly had any
business (Antonucci).
Tim McLoone, a restaurant operator in Long Branch, Asbury Park and Sea
Bright, was worried about what would happen once winter came. He said that
business is “extremely soft”, and while he doesn’t exactly see huge revenues in the
cooler months, business has been “practically invisible” Part of his concern is the
fact that not all locals have moved back yet. In Sea Bright, for example, the
population before the storm was 1,400. As of spring, there were only 500 people
residing there. This essentially means nearly two-thirds of business is gone; there
are 60% fewer people, so 60% less business (Antonucci).
To help ease some worries of locals, Governor Christie announced that there
was a new advertising campaign to spread the news that much of the Shore is open
to business. The advertisements used television, radio, and billboard, and spanned
from the East Coast to the Midwest. “We intend to spend a lot of time to let folks
know that our business owners and residents are ready to welcome back the
people,” Christie stated (Antonucci). In another campaign in October, twenty-six
different inns offered 10% discounts to try and beef up tourism in the last few
months of the year (PR Newswire).
Auto Sales
Before and During Sandy
Before Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast, auto sales were doing fairly well
in New Jersey. While the U.S. reported a 20% loss in sales from 2008 to 2009, the
Garden State only lost 16%, dropping from 425,000 to 358,000 (Friedman). When
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the storm hit, however, it cause quite a bit of trouble for many dealers. Nissan
reported a 3.2% loss compared in October, compared to the same month in 2011.
The Ford Motor Company put their losses of sales somewhere between 20,000 and
25,000, while Toyota estimates the loss at 30,000. Alec Gutierrez, a Kelley Blue
Book Analyst, predicted that there would be a substantial, short-term loss, as the
northeast accounts for up to 30% of the nation’s car sales; the last few days of the
month are also when sales are typically the strongest (Tuttle).
Short Run Surprisingly, it turns out that October was actually a very strong month for
auto sales. Five larger dealers posted increased sales from the previous year, some
up to 22% (Tuttle).
Dealership Percent Change, Oct. 2011-Oct. 2012
Volkswagon + 22.4%
Toyota + 15.8%
Chrysler + 10%
Honda + 8.8%
General Motors + 4.7%
Nissan - 6%
Source: Tuttle
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2012, in general, was a huge year for auto sales, for the New Jersey, the
northeast, and the United States. Compared to 2011, auto sales rose 6.4% in New
Jersey. This is miniscule, however, compared to the 14% average growth seen
across the country. Jersey saw 446,139 new cars and trucks sold in 2012, a larger
number than 2008, the last year before the recession (Tuttle, Friedman). In addition,
New Jersey accounted for nearly 4 percent of nationwide auto sales (Friedman).
Ford Sales Chief, Ken Czubay, seemed optimistic in the thought that this year was
not just a lucky year. “Typically, after the insurance companies come in, people use
that money to buy new
vehicles,” he said
(Tuttle). There is a
prediction of another
great year of auto sales
in 2013, even in the
northeast where Sandy hit.
Long Run
Despite the large impact that Hurricane Sandy had on auto sales in the last
few months of 2012, the New Year really brought higher sales to many dealers in
New Jersey. Chris Buculo, the general manager of Ford Lincoln in Union, New
Jersey, stated that there has been a rise in retail and truck sales, a trend seen across
the country (Friedman).
Paul Gentilini, a co-owner of Gentilini Motors in Woodbine, suggested that
part of the reason why his dealership saw increased sales in retail and large trucks
A car and house lay damaged by Hurricane Sandy. There has been an increase in car sales following the hurricane. Andrew Mills/The Star Ledger.
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is due to the large amount of construction going on at the coast. Tools, lumber, and
debris all need to be hauled to and from the coast. By August, auto sales were setting
records once more. Many South Jersey dealerships saw their best month since
before the recession began with nationwide sales exceeding 16 million cars (Miller).
Dealer Percent Change, Aug. 2012-Aug. 2013
Honda +27%
Toyota +23%
Nissan +22%
Source: Miller
At one Honda dealership in Middle Township, sales rose an outstanding 30%
in comparison with the previous year. There are a few reasons for these jumps in
sales. The first reason relates to the economy in general, as many citizens are
starting to feel more reassured that the economy is in a stable position, in addition
to Detroit starting to turn back around.
Even more likely, however, is the idea that the increased sales are directly
correlated to Sandy’s damage. When cars were destroyed, instead of buying a new
car right away, many people focused their time and energy in to rebuilding other
aspects of their lives. Now that they have enough money saved up, they will go and
buy a car. The sales could also be impacted by insurance checks finally reaching
Sandy victims (Tuttle). Chances are they have already used income and savings to
rebuild their homes and materials. Now that they have another check coming in,
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they can finally upgrade their car. Many people also had to replace their cars, as they
were destroyed by the storm.
On average, a new car or truck cost $31,252 in August of 2013, about $1,000
more than the year before. The fact that demand is higher, even with a higher price,
is a good sign for the automotive industry. Dealers were looking forward to a strong
end of the year, with continued booming sales through 2014. Many sellers have
shown their excitement for the coming few months after seeing great returns in the
summer months. New Jersey lost 20% of their dealerships, as well as 8,000
dealership jobs after the financial crisis of 2008. While jobs haven’t been added back
yet, it should only be a matter of time before jobs start trickling back to the
community (Miller).
Gasoline
Before and During Sandy
In a world so fueled by oil, gasoline is a major part of day to day life for most
Americans. Nationally, the average price for a gallon of gas was $3.57 at the time the
storm hit. While the price has spiked in comparison to the previous decade, gas
prices were dropping drastically in the days leading up to the storm. Hurricanes
normally raise gas prices in the months following destruction, as was the case with
Isaac in 2012 and Katrina in 2005. With Sandy, however, many analysts believed
that prices may stagnate a bit, but would ultimately keep falling (Tuttle).
By October 31st, it was reported that 80% of gas stations in New Jersey
remained without power, which built up demand for the stations that were
operating. That same evening, 300,000 gallons of diesel was spilled in Sewaren
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(Timeline). Vacuum trucks and 100 workers cleaned up the mess, which was caused
due to a ruptured tank. Later that night, many gas stations reported that they had
run out of fuel (Kessler).
After Sandy
In the end, it turns out that,
regardless of extremely long lines at gas
stations plaguing the Eastern Seaboard,
gas prices continued to fall in the days
following Sandy. The national average
dropped 21₵ in the two week period
leading up to November 2nd. It should be
noted, however, that this was not true for
the Black Market. Many people ended up
selling gas for up to $25 per gallon, after filling up gas cans at an operating station
(Tuttle).
Repair
Before Sandy
Even before the hurricane, the repair industry had been booming. New Jersey
had reported that building permits filed in 2012 were more than three times what
they were in 2011. Joseph Seneca, a Rutgers University Professor, also noted that
while the hurricane provides opportunity for a large amount of physical
People affected by the power outages from Hurricane Sandy wait in a two hour line at a gas station to purchase fuel for generators in Madison Park, New Jersey, on October 31, 2012. Reuters/Lucas Jackson
Naimark 32
construction and repair, it also allows for public officials and designers to rebuild as
well.
After Sandy
Many construction and repair businesses reported a boom in business due to
the unruly amount of debris left from the storm. True Value Hardware in
Hackensack first saw a rise in business in the days before the storm, mostly from
customers wishing to buy generators, batteries, and flashlights. In the days
following, they have reported that many people are also buying nails, paint, and
other basic construction tools to try to fix their homes and businesses themselves
(TIME Numbers). A month after the storm, any repair companies, such as Gateway
Heating and Plumbing, have reported that all of their workers are working overtime,
(Keams). In addition, some companies nationwide sent their crews to assist in fixing
up homes and businesses. Southern California Edison sent tree trimmers, electrical
workers, and more to aid in the recovery (Southern California Edison Sending…..).
Within six months of the storm, The Army Corps of Engineers, under a task
force created by President Obama, had pumped 720 Olympic Sized swimming pools
worth of unclean water from various sites, and delivered 500 truckloads of clean
water to those same areas. (Rogers) In the year following Sandy, NYC Transit
employees have logged 2.3 million hours for various projects cleaning up the storm.
Some 100 miles of new cable has been installed, and 46,000 miles have been
repaired. Crews have also cleared 32,000 tons of debris. (Shapiro)
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Conclusion
Due to the meltdown in 2008, the economy in New Jersey– and around the
world– is not what it should be. It is important to recognize that when Hurricane
Sandy struck, the state was beginning the recovery process from the recession. The
unemployment rate was just beginning to ease up, and people were starting to earn
(and spend) more. Had the storm hit right when the market crashed, the result
could’ve been even more catastrophic. For people to lose their homes and jobs at the
same time would be devastating.
For the remainder of 2012, the Northeast, specifically New York and New
Jersey, focused on rebuilding. Economists predicted that the storm could cause
anywhere from $20 to $100 billion dollars in economic damage (Futrelle). Clearly,
this was not something to take lightly. As citizens scrambled to reorganize their
lives, the government scrambled to assist those who suffered most. Amid political
tensions, President Obama and Governor Christie worked together, while Congress
hemmed and hawed on how much to provide in federal assistance.
The hurricane struck at a time when Republican Presidential Nominee Mitt
Romney had condemned FEMA, suggesting that it be privatized. This, undoubtedly,
hurt his popularity. As Americans saw the severe photos and videos of flooding and
destruction, the majority ended up supporting the thought of a large sum of money
going towards the cleanup (Swanson). Remarkably, the bill of $51 billion in aid was
not passed until late January, three months after the storm had hit (Hernandez).
By this point in time, many people have recovered from the direct impact of
last year. Businesses are slowly rebuilding, and the economy is growing stronger.
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Since the recession began, New Jersey has added about half of the jobs lost, inching
back up to the 2008 peak of 4.2 million jobs (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Miraculously, it seems that the hurricane has somewhat helped the economy in the
long run. One reason for this is that when people receive compensation from
insurers for damage, they usually spend it rather than put it back into their savings.
This increased spending has pushed the economy forward, optimistic of a bright
future.
The New Jersey economy is doing slightly better today than it was in the
aftermath of the hurricane. With a record GDP, the Garden State continues to push
past both the recession and Hurricane Sandy. Although the unemployment rate
remains at a stark 7.3%, employment is starting to pick up again (U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics). In time, as citizens’ savings bulk up again, the hurricane may even
prove helpful to the economy. In terms of individuals, of course, the storm was
terrible, forcing many to move from their homes. Yet on a broader scale, the
increased circulation of money– as a result of rebuilding and insurance claims–
helped push New Jersey as a whole ahead.
It is estimated that the storm caused a total of $37 billion in damages to New
Jersey alone. Amazingly, less than a quarter of that has been paid by insurance
companies and FEMA, as well as various donation groups. A large portion of the
money needed is due to hazard mitigation, which essentially is trying to limit the
loss of life.
Naimark 35
Source: Halpin
Source: Halpin
While citizens and businesses wait for insurance checks to clear, they are
paying for the damage done. Many families saw their savings dwindle as they paid
for new belongings that were washed away by the storm. This loss of savings could
be potentially dangerous for the average citizen, as they become more likely to
suffer during an emergency. In an economic sense, however, spending more money
$7,800
$3,560
$2,200 $23,500
Damages to New Jersey - In Millions
Residents
Businesses
Municipalities
Hazard Mitigation
$6,500 $1,300 $816
$146
$28,400
Amount of Aid Paid for New Jersey Damages - In Millions
Insurance
Public Assistance
Small BusinessAdministration
Relief Agencies
Unmet Need
Naimark 36
is definitely a good thing. In the short run, the hurricane hurt families and
businesses who simply could not afford the cost of the damage. In the grand scheme
of things, however, increased spending sped up New Jersey’s recovery from the
recession. The increased spending, especially during the final months of 2012,
helped businesses persevere during Sandy. Increased construction and repair work
pushed the economy forward from its ditch, and the New Jersey economy is doing
much better today than it was when Sandy hit.
Naimark 37
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Naimark 39
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though Christie is usually portrayed as a hero, this article points out some faults and
mistakes.
