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Mapping the Future

Colonel Dr. Thomas Will, GE A

Chief, Strategic Forecasting Branch

Bundeswehr Transformation Center

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Joint Service Office

Administrativ Subordination Operational Subordination

Bundeswehr Bundeswehr Transformation CentreTransformation Centre

Ministry of DefenceMinistry of DefenceChief of StaffChief of StaffBundeswehrBundeswehr

ArmyArmy Joint SupportJoint SupportServiceServiceAir ForceAir Force NavyNavy MedicalMedical

ServiceService

Vice Chief of Staff &Vice Chief of Staff &CoS Joint SupportCoS Joint Support

Vice Chief of StaffVice Chief of StaffBundeswehrBundeswehr

Armed Forces StaffArmed Forces Staff

For whom do we work?For whom do we work?

3Where to find usWhere to find us

Commander

Deputy Commander& Chief of Staff

Department IICD&E

Department ITransformation

Department IIIOR, M&S

StrategicForecasting

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Develop a Permanent Element

which identifies Potentials for Improvement

relevant for German security policy

Develop a Permanent Element

which identifies Potentials for Improvement

relevant for German security policy

Methodology for a Systematic Strategic Forecasting

Interdisciplinary Co-Operation

What we are doing

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How it started

• 1996 Ad hoc Working Group „Armed Forces Development 2020“

• 2002 Armed Forces, Capabilities, and Technologies in the 21st Century – 2030 (Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert – 2030 – abbreviated: SFT 21 – 2030)

• 2005 SFT 21 – 2035• Since April 2006: Permanent element within

Bundeswehr Transformation Center

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• Detect Potentials of the Future

• Function as an Early Warning System

• Target Capabilities

• Present CHODS with Alternative Options

The Task

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Stepwise planning process towards the future based on a hierarchy of documents

Stepwise planning process towards the future based on a hierarchy of documents

Armed Forces 2015 / 25Armed Forces 2015 / 25

2040

2005

20252015

Time lineDirection of thought

in thestudy process

Direction of thoughtin the

study process

Topdown

Security Environment 2040

Aim:Aim:Armed Forces Able to Fulfil Political MissionsArmed Forces Able to Fulfil Political Missions

Looking Back from Alternative Futures

Bottom upBundeswehr Planning Process (mid- to long-term)Bundeswehr Planning Process (mid- to long-term)

8Main Questions

What are the risk potentials in the 21st century?

How will the future face of war look like?

What kind of changes will we be confronted with?

What does that mean with regard to security policy?

What does that mean for the security community?

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Security Relevant Environment 2040

Capability AnalysisCapabilitiesCapabilities

Recommendations for ActionRecommendations for Action

Trend Analysis

Overall Approach

Interdisciplinaryand

InternationalCooperation

Interdisciplinaryand

InternationalCooperation

Workshopson

Specific Issues

Workshopson

Specific Issues

Scenario BuildingScenario Building

Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

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Need to identify Need to identify changing potential!changing potential!

Demography

Environment/Ressources

Science & Technology

Economy

Culture

Society

Politics

Trend AreasTrend Areas

Increased InterdependenceIncreased InterdependenceIncreased Decision DensityIncreased Decision DensityIncreased NetworkIncreased Network

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1. Global Level

1. Global Level

3. Local Level

3. Local Level

2. Regional Level

2. Regional Level

Geographical Trend Analysis

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• Islamic World

• Organized Crime

• Change in Climate

• Development of Energy

• Use of Oceans

• Islamic World

• Organized Crime

• Change in Climate

• Development of Energy

• Use of Oceans

• Use of Space

• Knowledge Society

• Nano-Technology

• Bio-Technology

• Historical Trend Analysis

• Use of Space

• Knowledge Society

• Nano-Technology

• Bio-Technology

• Historical Trend Analysis

Subject Areas of Trend Analysis

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TOPOGRAPHY ofALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

TOPOGRAPHY ofALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

INITIAL SCENARIOINITIAL SCENARIO

Notion of DirectionNotion of Direction

Time HorizonTime Horizon

Aim: Changing Potentials Relevant to Security and Armed ForcesAim: Changing Potentials Relevant to Security and Armed Forces

TRENDSTRENDS

ANALYSIS ofCHANGING POTENTIALS

ANALYSIS ofCHANGING POTENTIALS

Scenario Building and Analysis

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Personnel: An Interdisciplinary Approach

COL

CPT

LTCArmy

CMDRNavy

LTCAir Force

LTCArmy

Dr.Civil Engineer

MAPolitical Sciences

MAEconomics

MAHumanities