MAPPING MONSOON ON SUGARCANE PLANTING (SEASON 2014-15)

Sugarcane planting for the sugar season of 2014-15, is almost completed across the country.

Interestingly the total sugarcane acreage in 2014-15 season is the mirror image of the rainfall

pattern that the country witnessed during the monsoon (June-Sep, 2013), post monsoon (Oct-

Dec, 2013) along with winter rains (Jan-Feb, 2014), when actually the majority of the planting

took place.

In 2013, the actual rainfall during the monsoon season (June- Sep, 2013) was 937 mm, which

was about 6% higher than the normal monsoon rainfall i.e. 887mm (long period average/LPA).

During June-Sep, the Adsali (18 months) crop in Tropical and Spring crop in Sub-Tropical had

been planted for the season 2014-15, and its acreage directly followed the progression of

rainfall during this period.

From Oct-Dec, 2013, during the post monsoon season of 2013, total actual rainfall was 150mm,

which was 18% higher than normal average rainfall i.e. 127 mm. During this time of the year,

pre-seasonal crop (14-15 months) had been planted in North West Karnataka and Maharashtra

region which also followed the higher acreage pattern than normal seasonal planting.

In 2014, winter rainfall (Jan- Feb, 2014) was 46.2 mm, which was 13% higher than the normal

rainfall, i.e. 40.9mm (LPA). In this period, major sugarcane planting across the Sub-tropical

region (Uttar Pradesh/ Punjab/ Haryana/ Bihar), Maharashtra (Suru season), Karnataka

(seasonal planting), Tamil Nadu (Eksali) etc, had commenced. This pattern of rainfall

progression during monsoon and post monsoon seasons of 2013, farmers got confidence of

planting more sugarcane under these seasonal plantings across States.

In the monsoon season of 2014, cumulative rainfall in the country as a whole during the period

of 1st June to 25th June, 2014, is 40% lower than long period average (LPA). Rainfall (%

departure from LPA) in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above

period was lower by 48% in North West India, 57% in Central India, 28% in South Peninsula

and 29% in East & North East India. Out of a total of 36 Met sub-divisions, 7 Met sub-divisions

constituting 14% of the total area of the country have received excess / normal rainfall, 29 Met

sub-divisions constituting 86% of the total area of the country have received deficient/scanty

rainfall.

To understand the impact of monsoon rainfall on the sugarcane crop’s health and its acreage,

we must study the rainfall progression in monsoon/ pre-monsoon /winter season and compare it

with 2012’s monsoon rainfall pattern, so as to arrive at the overall sugarcane acreage/

production for 2014-15 season in comparison to 2013-14 sugar season

1. Maharashtra Rainfall Progression in 2013 in comparison to 2012 in order to

examine 2014-15 sugarcane crop acreage-

1.1 Comparison on monsoon rainfall (June – Sept) 2013 vs 2012

During this period, major Adsali seasonal plantation had been done in Maharashtra. Clear cut

monsoon progression of 2013 over 2012 indicates that, it was favorable for Adsali plantation for

2014-15 crop season and we are estimating about 25% area under total new plantation in

Adsali, which is higher than the last year Adsali acreage.

1.2 Comparison on post monsoon rainfall (Oct – Dec) 2013 vs 2012

During this period major, pre-seasonal plantation had been done. Clear cut monsoon

progression of 2013 over 2012 indicates that, it was favorable for pre-seasonal plantation for

2014-15 crop season and it is estimated that it is about 50-55% of the total new plantation of

2014-15. Moreover adsali & pre-seasonal crops are about 10% - 12% more than last year crop

acreage.

1.3 Comparison on winter rainfall (Jan – Feb) 2014 vs 2013

During this period, major SURU plantation was already done. Clear cut monsoon progression of

2014 over 2013 indicates that, it was favorable for SURU plantation for 2014-15 crop season.

Moreover, continuous good rain progression also helped in overall growth of Adsali and pre-

seasonal crop in the field, which will directly give more yield for 2014-15 crushing season.

1.4 Comparison on pre-monsoon rainfall (Mar – May) 2014 vs 2013

During this period, rains actually impacted the overall growth of the new plantation and ratoon

crop for 2014-15 crop season. We are expecting the yield to go up by 6-7% higher than last

year of 2013-14 season, as far as new plantation is concerned.

2. Karnataka Rainfall Progression in 2013 in comparison to 2012 to examine 2014-15

sugarcane crop

2.1 Comparison on monsoon rainfall (June – Sept) 2013 vs 2012

During this period, major Adsali plantation had been done. Clear cut monsoon progression of

2013 over 2012 indicates that, it was favorable for Adsali plantation of 2014-15, but Adsali in the

State only confines majorly to Belgum district of North West Karnataka.

2.2 Comparison on post monsoon rainfall (Oct – Dec) 2013 vs 2012

During this period, post monsoon rains were not as good in 2013 as compared to 2012. Pre-

seasonal / Seasonal plantation is the major plantation season where almost 70% plantation

happens, but reservoir level and Krishan river water helps on overall good acreage for 2014-15

season.

2.3 Comparison on winter rainfall (Jan – Feb) 2014 vs 2013

In Karnataka, winter rains were not good, as compared to 2013, which might impact the overall

yield in coming months, if such a situation prevails longer during monsoon rainfall too (July-

Sept).

3. Tamil Nadu Rainfall Progression in 2013 in comparison to 2012 to examine 2014-

15 sugarcane crop

3.1 Comparison on winter rainfall (Jan – Feb) 2014 vs 2013

Majority of plantation happens in Jan –Mar, 2014, which is actually hampered due to poor rains.

3.2 Retrieving monsoon in Tamil Nadu was bad in 2013, which actually impacted

the ratoon & new plantation for 2014-15.

However, all the above factors & incidences of rainfall pattern, across the season is one of the

major fundamental factors in deciding the overall acreage, but apart from it there are other non-

fundamental aspects which also impact crop acreage.

Ongoing rainfall pattern of monsoon in 2014 is a must for the overall growth of sugarcane, which

has been planted till date for the crushing season of 2014-15. Factors like crop yield and

recovery are prime factors, which might get altered, if any deviation happens in July-Sep,2014

rainfall progression.

ISMA has already released its preliminary estimates of sugar production for the season 2014-

15, based on sugarcane acreage (derived from satellite mapping), which has been further

substantiated with other anticipated fundamental factors like yield/ recovery (looking into current

crop situation) along with non-fundamental factors liked drawl etc to arrive at sugar production

of about 253 lakh tons for the season 2014-15, which is about 4% higher than the last year. This

is only ISMA preliminary estimates which will be revised in the month of August-September, by

that time clearer picture on monsoon rainfall and its impact on the yield will be there, to firm up

ISMA projections.