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Markus Beck
Manufacturing challenges facing CdTe and CIGS
NSF Workshop – Catalyzing Innovation in PV Manufacturing, May 6-7, 2010, Golden, CO
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 2First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Our MissionTo create enduring value by enabling a world powered by clean, affordable solar electricity.
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 3First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Outline
• Brief market overview
• Current status
• Opportunities in TF PV manufacturing– Technological Improvements– Labor force characteristics
• Conclusions
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 4First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Global Cumulative Installed Capacity of PVSelected IEA countries
2.8 3.8
5.3 1.4
1.7
1.9 0.7
3.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.8
2.8
3.9
5.3
7.7
13.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Cum
ulat
ive
Inst
alle
d Ca
paci
ty (G
W)
Rest of World
Korea
Italy
USA
Spain
Japan
Germany
Source: “Trends in photovoltaic applications”. IEA PVPS. September 2009.
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 5First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Long-term View of the Solar PV Industry
Source: “Solar Photovoltaic Industry”, Deutsche Bank, May 2008
A complex marketplace
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 6First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
PV Technologies2008 Technology mix
Source: “Clean Technology Primer”, Jeffries Research, March 2
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 7First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
99 132 143 160 214 214 214176 191 214 214 214 214
382
854 854
1282 1282
107
"Copy Smart" Production Capacity Growth
25 MW100 MW
308 MW
716 MW
1,228 MW
2005 2006 2007 2008 20092005 & 2006 based on Q406 run rate; 2007 based on Q407 run rate; 2008 based on Q408 run rate; 2009 – 2012 based on Q409 run rate
Driven by increasing efficiency, run rate, and yields
2010 2011 2012
Ohio
Germany
Malaysia
France
Capacity
1,282 MW
1,709 MW1,816 MW
Plant 5 & 6
15%
First Solar 2009 Market Share*
* - based on Analyst estimated 7.3 GW global installs in 2009
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 8First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Products & PerformanceProven Record of Increasing Module Conversion Efficiencies
Modules Produced
Conversion Efficiency
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Q1'
02Q
2'02
Q3'
02Q
4'02
Q1'
03Q
2'03
Q3'
03Q
4'03
Q1'
04Q
2'04
Q3'
04Q
4'04
Q1'
05Q
2'05
Q3'
05Q
4'05
Q1'
06Q
2'06
Q3'
06Q
4'06
Q1'
07Q
2'07
Q3'
07Q
4'07
Q1'
08Q
2'08
Q3'
08Q
4'08
Q1'
09Q
2'09
Q3'
09Q
4'09
Q1'
10
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 9First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Conversion Efficiency Potential
Practical Potential
Research
Development
Process Integration
Current Production
18%
15.3%
13.5%12.5%
11.1%
~2014
~2012
Q410
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 10First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
High-Confidence Roadmap to >12.5%
• 12.5% requires closing the gap between CdTe product and lab record performance– NREL “hero” CdTe Cell is 16.5%– Best module is 80% of "hero" cell– Production average is 90% of best module– 16.5% hero-cell corresponds to ~13% production
• Pathway is mostly improved light transmission into existing device– NREL Jsc demonstrates upside of 1.3% absolute– Many opportunities for improvements in current – Technology challenge is to make these improvements manufacturable
– Reducing thickness of CdS – Proprietary improvements to TCO – Proprietary improvements to glass transmission
• FSLR Leveraging current leadership for sustained competitive differentiation
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 11First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
1,000 Pathways to >16% and Beyond
• Multiple approaches to driving performance
• Renewed excitement in the technical field
• Fundamental device physics and materials science
• TF-CdTe still has enormous headroom
Dopant Engineering
Band-Engineering
Contact Engineering
Optical Engineering
Grain-boundary Engineering
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 12First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Opportunities in TF PV Manufacturing
1. Technological Improvements
2. Labor Force Characteristics
Key Criteriai. R&D needs to be compatible to HVM – i.e. takt times, CapEx, OpEx,
environmental impact (toxicity, CO2 footprint)ii. No need to fix what isn’t broken/reinvent the wheel
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 13First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Technological Improvements
• Increased fundamental understanding of semiconductor system and interfaces
• Novel in-situ, on-line, and off-line metrology– compositional control– key opto-electronic properties– module scale solar simulators and QE
• Equipment engineering – P1 through P3 laser scribing for CIGS– thermal processing
• Reliability– fundamental understanding of device & material degradation mechanisms– new packaging materials– energy rating standards, methods and algorithms– accelerated stress test protocols representative of multiple climatic regions
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 14First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Technological Improvements cont.
• Novel materials for encapsulation and device stack– ohmic back contact– TCO
• Recycling methods for CIGS
• BOS optimization – inverters optimized for TF PV– NEC revision enabling > 600V system voltage
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 15First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Labor Force Characteristics
• Solid state and theoretical physicists trained in polycrystalline compound semiconductor systems
• Analytical and physical chemists as well as process engineers understanding TF deposition technologies
• Materials Scientists skilled in materials characterization and failure analysis
• Electrical engineers and physicists trained in device characterization and instrumentation
• Mechanical engineers with focus on large area, HVM deposition and automation equipment
• Computer scientists
• Sound understanding of basic principles in physics, chemistry, and engineering
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 16First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Conclusions
• PV historically too expensive; conventional electricity rising in price; PV reducing cost
• Grid parity leading to inflection in price elastic demand; exponential demand leading to continued growth of PV
• CdTe clear leader in LCOE from PV; c-Si will continue to play a major role; CIGS, if commercial scale will prove viable, can emerge as competitive on cost to c-Si
• Better understanding of fundamentals for CdTe and CIGS required• Technology/engineering challenge is to make R&D improvements
manufacturable• Need for a wide array of experts – mechanical as well as electrical engineering,
physics, chemistry, materials science, and computer science
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 17First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
Career Opportunities at First Solarhttp://www.firstsolar.com/en/careers.php
© Copyright 2010, First Solar, Inc. 18First Solar Confidential & Proprietary
First Solar Locations
Global Headquarters Tempe, Arizona, USA
Europe Amsterdam, Netherlands Berlin, Germany Brussels, Belgium Madrid, Spain Mainz, GermanyParis, France
Manufacturing Frankfurt (Oder), Germany Kulim, MalaysiaPerrysburg, Ohio, USA
North America Bridgewater, New Jersey, USAOakland, California, USANew York, New York, USASarnia, Ontario, Canada
Asia/Pacific Sydney, Australia