Manitoba and Climate Change: A Primer€¦ · response to this very real challenge is critical if we want to ensure an accept-able quality of life for future generations of Manitobans

The Climate isChanging

Impacts onManitoba,Canada andthe World

Opportunitiesand Challengesfor Manitobans

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Manitoba andClimate Change: A Primer

Manitoba andClimate Change: A Primer

Manitoba Clean Environment CommissionINTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DU

DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLEIISD

Climate Change and Manitobans: A Primer 3

Manitoba and Climate Change: A Primer

Table of Contents

The Climate is Changing 3

The Science and Impacts of Climate Change 4

The International and Canadian Responses to Climate Change 11

The Implications of Climate Change for Manitoba: 19Opportunities and Challenges

The Path Ahead 28

Photos top to bottom:Photo courtesy

Kraus Group Inc.Photo courtesy

Manitoba AgriculturePhoto courtesy

Manitoba HydroPhoto by Elaine Gauer, Manitoba Agriculture

Cover Photo: Flood of theCentury, Red River Valley, May 1997.Photo by Peggy Tyrchniewicz

Layout and Design – Don Berg

4 Manitoba and Climate Change: A Primer

The Manitoba Clean Environment Commission (CEC) was estab-lished to facilitate public participation in the management of theprovince’s natural environment. The Commission accomplishes thisthrough a variety of mechanisms including the public hearing process,through which advice is provided to government on specific environ-mental licensing matters, and by offering mediation services throughwhich environmental disputes can be addressed. In addition, theCommission’s mandate includes an obligation to encourage public education initiatives that raise awareness and understanding of environmental issues.

The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is anindependent, not-for-profit corporation headquartered in Winnipeg,Canada, established by the governments of Canada and Manitoba.IISD receives financial support from the governments of Canada andManitoba, other governments, UN agencies, foundations and the private sector. IISD’s vision is better living for all—sustainably; its mission is to champion innovation, enabling societies to live sustainably.

© The Manitoba Clean Environment Commission and theInternational Institute for Sustainable Development 2001.

Published by International Institute for Sustainable Development andthe Manitoba Clean Environment Commission.

All rights reserved

Printed in Canada

Copies are available from

The Manitoba Clean Environment Commission305-155 Carlton St.Winnipeg, MB R3C 3H8

Canadian Cataloguing in Publication Data

Main entry under title:

Manitoba and climate change: A primer

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN 1-895536-31-6

1. Climate changes—Manitoba. 2. Climate changes—Environmentalaspects—Manitoba. I. International Institute for SustainableDevelopment.

QC985.5.M35C54 2001 551.697127 C00-911596-X

This publication is printed on recycled paper.

International Institute for Sustainable Development161 Portage Avenue East, 6th FloorWinnipeg, Manitoba, CanadaR3B 0Y4

Telephone: (204) 958-7700Fax: (204) 958-7710E-mail: [email protected]: http://www.iisd.org

Manitoba and Climate Change: A Primer 5

The Climate isChangingBy the end of this century, Manitoba will be 4–6 degrees C

warmer, on average, than it is today. Sounds great? It isn’t.Manitoba is particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climatechange because of the important role that renewableresources—like forests and agriculture—play in our economy.Change of this magnitude would impact our economy, ecology, and health and well-being.

Climate change is the most significant global environmental threat facingManitobans. Understanding its impacts and developing a thoughtfulresponse to this very real challenge is critical if we want to ensure an accept-able quality of life for future generations of Manitobans. Climate changerepresents the concrete manifestation of sustainable development in manyways—an effective response calls for policy and action across the full rangeof human economic and development activities.

Taking action now to begin managing and adapting to the threat of climatechange will work to minimize costs for future generations. It is more effec-tive and less expensive to adapt to climate change over time rather thanbeing forced to adopt more extreme, emergency adaptation techniques inthe future when the best solutions are not necessarily available. And the chal-lenge is also an opportunity. By being proactive, Manitobans can develop newmarkets and become leaders in the development and distribution of climate-friendly technologies.

So, what exactly is climate change? The term, often used interchangeablywith global warming, refers to the overall warming of the earth’s atmospherecaused by human-generated emissions of greenhouse gases, mostly carbondioxide, nitrous oxide and methane. The two most critical variables in glob-al warming are the expected range and rate of temperature change. Forexample, the latest estimates predict a global average temperature rise of 1.4to 5.8 degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2100. Manitoba is expected toexperience warming at the higher end of that range. Recent conclusions ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirm whatmany have suspected—that the range and rate of climate change expectedover the next century is greater than what was previously predicted, withconsequent greater impacts on our ecology, economy and society.

And why should we worry aboutclimate change? It is difficult topredict what the specific regionalimpacts will be. It is certain, how-ever, that the overall impacts willbe harmful. This will be particularlytrue for those regions of the worldthat are the least responsible forproducing greenhouse gases, yetthe most directly affected—thesmall island states and impover-ished areas of the developingworld, for example. WhileManitobans, if adequately pre-pared, might be able to adapt toclimate change, we must not losesight of our moral responsibility tothose areas of the globe that wouldlikely be devastated. This calls forthe support of strong, sensibleaction to mitigate our greenhousegas emissions and help for morevulnerable regions to developappropriate policies in response toclimate change.

This primer is intended to be thefirst place Manitobans need lookfor an overview of the science andimpacts of climate change, theinternational and Canadianresponses, and the challenges andopportunities that Manitobansface in mitigating and adapting toclimate change.

The Science and Impacts ofClimate ChangeThe History of Climate on the Canadian Prairies

Climate change isn’t new. It’s as old as the atmosphereitself. Studies have documented the nature, magnitude

and impact of historical climate change. What’s expected tohappen on the prairies in the next century, has in fact happened in the more distant past, allowing researchers toidentify natural systems most sensitive to current andimpending climate change. For instance, a drought that started in the 1790s was severe enough to initiate extensivesand dune activity across the southern prairies, somethingthat did not occur as a result of the droughts in the 1930s or1980s. Historical studies have suggested that levels and qualityof water bodies, which are especially vulnerable to climatechange, have fluctuated in response to even short-term periods of warm, dry weather or very wet weather. Duringthe warmest interval of the last 10,000 years—5,000 to7,000 years ago—water tables across the prairies were 4–10 m below current levels.1

At that time, the prairies were considerably warmer and drier than they aretoday. Lake sediment records from northern Alberta and west-centralManitoba indicate that summer temperatures were about two degrees Chigher, compared to the projected 4–6 degree C increase by the end of thiscentury. Growing season precipitation was about 15 per cent lower than itis today. With the exception of a few deeper lakes, groundwater-fed lakes onthe southern prairies were completely dry. While the increased warming wasprimarily a result of greater solar radiation, this period is of particular inter-est as the magnitude of temperature change expected to occur by 2050 isroughly comparable to the climate of that time.

The Prairie Provinces had two distinct climate events during the last mil-lennium.2 The most recent of these, the “Little Ice Age,” occurred between1450 and 1850. It was the coldest period in the Northern Hemisphere inthe last 10,000 years. And despite a generally cooler climate, tree ringsdemonstrate that the most severe drought of the past 500 years occurredduring this period, from about 1790 to 1800.

The second major climate event on the prairies was the “Medieval WarmPeriod,” from approximately 900 to 1200 AD. This was a period of severedrought on the southern prairies, far exceeding the frequency and magni-tude of droughts experienced in the last 100 years. The magnitude of cli-matic changes associated with these events was particularly pronounced inthe southern half of the prairies.


1 Herrington, R. et al., PrairieAdaptation: Backgrounder, PrairieAdaptation Research Co-operative,March 1999.

2 ibid.

Today’s Climate in ManitobaManitoba’s climate is determined by our location in the middle of NorthAmerica. It includes cold temperate as well as sub-Arctic climatic regions,ranging from dry continental-type conditions in the southwest, to nearArctic conditions in the northeast along Hudson Bay. The RockyMountains prevent the moisture-bearing winds of the Pacific from reachingthe area, resulting in a continental climate, with sub-humid to semi-aridconditions with short, hot summers; long, cold winters; low levels of pre-cipitation; and high evaporation. Throughout the year, moist and warmerair from the U.S. Midwest affects southern Manitoba and sometimes leadsto large regional rain and snow events. During the winter, frigid Arctic airflows southward across Manitoba, frequently producing blowing snow andhigh wind chill conditions. While Manitobans enjoy mainly sunny skiesthroughout the year, considerable cloudiness in the fall and spring occursdue to the variation in storm patterns across the region.

The extreme northeast of Manitoba is affected by its proximity to HudsonBay. During the summer months, Churchill and other coastal communitiesfrequently experience sea breezes off the cold water and/or ice-coveredHudson Bay. Elsewhere, large lakes can have strong local effects, includingincreased cloudiness; a longer but cooler growing season; lake-induced snowsqualls in the fall; and complex local winds.

Mean winter temperatures range from –12.5 to –8 degrees C and meansummer temperatures from 14 to 16 degrees C. Mean annual precipitationhas extreme variability, ranging from 300 mm in the west to almost 700mm in the east.

The Impacts of Climate Change for ManitobaThanks to its location in the middle of a continent at relatively high lati-tudes, Manitoba is likely to face earlier and more severe climate change thanmany parts of the world. Climate models agree that all regions in Canada,including Manitoba, will experience higher temperatures by the middle ofthis century.


The Canadian model, produced bythe Canadian Centre for ClimateModelling and Analysis, predictsabove-normal spring temperatureincreases across Canada, most sig-nificantly affecting the prairies andthe north. This increase is predictedto lead to earlier seeding times formost crops. Springtime precipita-tion across Canada is expected torise, with an increase on theprairies ranging from five to 20 percent. This could work to increasegroundwater recharge and soilmoisture. With higher tempera-tures and more precipitation in thespring, some areas of the prairiescould experience more flooding.

According to the model, summertemperatures will increase by threeto four degrees C. This has thepotential to increase evaporationacross the country, reducing theamount of available water and per-haps causing crises in water man-agement in all parts of Canada.With much higher evaporationand temperatures and little changein precipitation, increased droughtconditions are projected. In allregions in Canada, the higher tem-peratures should lengthen thegrowing season by increasing the

Figure 1. Earth’s averagetemperature variance overthe last 1,000,000 years.

Source: Environment Canada

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What Are Greenhouse Gases?Much like what occurs in greenhouses where heat isheld inside, greenhouse gases are those in the atmos-phere that act like a blanket to keep the earth warm.This is known as the greenhouse effect, a naturalphenomenon vital to life on earth. The sun irradiatesthe earth and about 70 per cent of the incoming radi-ation is absorbed by gases in the atmosphere and bythe planet’s surface. The average temperature of theearth’s atmosphere is raised by the energy trapped bythese gases, maintaining the planet’s temperaturewithin a habitable range. The natural greenhouseeffect causes the earth’s surface to be about 33 degreesC higher than it would be without. However, increas-ing levels of GHG emissions as a result of humanactivities in, for example, transportation, energy, agri-culture and forestry, are leading to rapidly increasingGHG concentrations which would destabilize ourglobal climate. Current concentrations in the atmos-phere have risen rapidly since the mid- 1800s and arenow at the highest values in over 400,000 years.

Carbon dioxide is the most common greenhouse gasreleased by human activities. CO2 is produced fromdecaying materials, respiration of plant and animallife, and combustion of organic materials and fossilfuels such as natural gas, oil and coal. Once emitted,carbon remains in the climate system for a century ormore.

Another significant GHG produced as result a ofhuman activity is methane, which is produced whenmatter decays in the absence of oxygen. Primarysources of methane include land management, wet-lands, animal waste and digestive processes, fossil fuelextraction, and decaying garbage in landfills.

To effectively compare the impacts of greenhousegases in the atmosphere, their lifespans have beenconverted into global warming potential over 100years. Compared with carbon dioxide, methane is 21times more potent per molecule as a greenhouse gas,but it is much less abundant and has a shorter resi-dence time of about 12 years. Humans contribute toemissions of nitrous oxide through soil cultivation,the production and use of nitrogen fertilizers, pro-duction of nylon, and the burning of organic materialand fossil fuels. This gas is roughly 310 times permolecule more capable of trapping heat than carbondioxide with a lifetime of 120 years in the atmos-phere. Other GHGs produced as the result of humanactivity include fluorocarbons (CFCs, HCFCs andPFCs) and sulfur hexafloride (SF6). While their con-centration is very small (less than one per cent), theyhave considerably higher heat-trapping potential,with some as high as 10,000 times per molecule morepowerful than CO2 with some exceeding a millenni-um in residence time.

Incoming Energy

Reflected Energy Outgoing Energy

Absorbed

ENERGY IMBALANCE

Figure 2. Greenhouse gas effecton the earth.



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Table 1. Greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol.

Source: A Guide to Kyoto: Climate Change and What It Means to Canadians, IISD, 1998.

number of frost-free days and therange of crops available to produc-ers. That said, most of Canada’sagricultural regions should expect areduction in summer precipitation,with extreme declines of 10 to 20per cent occurring in Manitoba.There is also a potential forincreased animal and plant heatstress because of climate change.

The models predicted less significant increases in fall temperatures acrossCanada, ranging from two to three degrees C, perhaps leading to more frost-free days. Fall precipitation will be varied across the country, with increasesin the northern regions and decreases in the south. Southern BritishColumbia has a potential increase of 20 per cent. The decreasing precipita-tion in southern Ontario could prove to be harmful because the rechargingof soil moisture is needed for plant growth.

Winter will see the most significant temperature increases across Canada,according to the model. With a predicted increase between five and eightdegrees C in Manitoba, there could be significant consequences for agricul-ture, transportation and energy demands.


Figure 3. Projected globaltemperature changes.

Source: Canadian Centre forClimate Modelling and Analysis,Atmospheric EnvironmentServices

3 Tyrchniewicz, A. and Choitti, Q. Agriculture and Change: A Prairie Perspective, IISD Working Paper, 1997.

Modelling Climate Change through General Circulation Models

Determining the regional impacts of climate change is an imprecise science. Although past and ongoing climatetrends are useful to understand, developing future climate scenarios can help predict some of the regional con-sequences of climate change. The only means of looking to the future is the use of General Circulation Models(GCMs) as tools in generating climate change scenarios. Where GCM projections are similar to recently observedtrends, greater confidence can be attached to the future outlooks.

General Circulation Models are powerful, computer-based, three-dimensional representations of the global cli-mate system that project responses of climate to changing conditions, such as the concentration of greenhousegases.3 They are based on fundamental laws of physics and conservation of mass, momentum and energy, sim-plifying the complex climate system to a series of mathematical expressions. The three commonly used modelsagree on the direction of change in temperature and are usually fairly close to each other on the magnitude ofchange. Most of the GCMs do not provide consistent predictions on precipitation, but all suggest changing pre-cipitation patterns for most regions. The models also suggest conditions that could foster an increase in thun-derstorms and hailstorms in most regions.

The most common scenariomodeled is for an equivalentof doubling the pre-industrialatmospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide, a conditionexpected to occur by 2030.Under this scenario, the aver-age global temperature willincrease 2–6 degrees C overthe next century.

Temperature Change, oC

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Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisAtmospheric Environment Service

Annual Mean Temperature Change: 2040-2060 minus 1970-1990

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It is also likely that climate change will affect the frequency, severity andduration of extreme weather events.4 Examples of possible increases, exclud-ing nasty surprises, are:

• The frequency, duration and severity of extreme heat spells couldincrease significantly as the climate warms, while extreme cold spellsmight become less frequent.

• Thunderstorms and related hailstorms and tornadoes are expected tobecome more frequent and severe as the warmer surface temperaturescause the air to become more buoyant and rise into the atmospheremore rapidly (convection).

• The intensity of summer rainfall is expected to increase, also because ofthe increased convective activity.

• With a larger percentage of rain falling as intense events, the duration ofdry periods between such events is likely to increase. Coupled withwarmer temperatures, this suggests an increase in drought frequency andseverity, particularly as defined by soil moisture.

• The number of intense winter storms might significantly increase.

• Major changes in the way water moves through the landscape, air andlakes and rivers could occur, as warmer temperatures will causeincreased evaporation, more moisture in the air and, on average, morerain.

• Major changes in atmospheric circulation could take place, affectingstorm tracks and rainfall distribution.

Manitoba is particularly sensitiveand vulnerable to climate changebecause of the important role thatrenewable resources—like forestsand agriculture—play in our econ-omy. Manitoba is also home tovulnerable northern environmentsthat are predicted to experiencegreater than average temperaturechanges. Manitoba will likely expe-rience warmer and wetter wintersand springs, and longer, warmerand drier summers. These changescould have massive impacts onManitoba’s ecozones. Figure 4shows the expected shift mid-cen-tury in ecozones in Canada,assuming a doubling of greenhousegases in the atmosphere, which isexpected to take place by 2030.

Manitoba could face positive aswell as negative impacts from cli-mate change. With the warmertemperatures and longer growingseason, a wider range of croppingoptions might be available for agri-culture. However, the agriculturesector will also need to addressrisks related to a lack of water dur-ing the growing season and the


tundraborealtemperategrasslandsemi-aridunclassified

Today Year 2050

Figure 4. Predicted changes in Canada’s ecozones.


4 Herrington, R. et al.

permitted to flow rapidly through to Hudson Bay, groundwater rechargemight not occur enough to fully recharge the aquifers.

The increased summer temperatures, together with reduced precipitationand higher evaporation, might reduce the amount of water available forManitoba’s hydroelectric production. Manitoba’s hydro resources could alsobe stretched as the result of greater electricity demand for air-conditioningduring summers.

Northern communities could experience warmer temperatures throughoutthe year, which could increase their opportunities for economic develop-ment through potential increases in tourism and reduced operating costsdue to warmer conditions. However, challenges could be in store for com-munities dependent on their natural surroundings, ice roads and other infra-structure over permafrost.

Economic development in many northern communities is associated withhunting and forestry, as well as other single-resource based activities. Theseactivities are vulnerable to climate change. The changing conditions can leadto a shift in wildlife habitat which, when tied to potential unpredictablewinter ice conditions, makes it more difficult for the residents to know whatis safe. Municipal planning in the northern communities could also becomemore difficult with short seasons of ice roads, and melting permafrost inareas that were once stable. Runways built on permafrost will require greatermaintenance as the permafrost melts.

There is a growing scientific concern that the long-term impacts of climatechange might represent the greatest environmental health risk to humanity.While Manitobans are not likely to be threatened by malaria and other dis-eases, there are many significant public health issues. While making an accu-rate assessment is complex and unlikely, a consensus is emerging on thepotential direct and indirect implications of climate change for humanhealth. Direct impacts involve sickness and the loss of life from the increasedfrequency, severity and geographic extent of extreme climate events such asheat waves and floods. Indirect impacts include the spread of infectious dis-eases and the climate-influenced mass migration of people.

Researchers have long appreciated the role climate plays in disease distribu-tion. The combined effects of the projected increases in temperature andrainfall suggest an expansion of favourable habitats for many diseases;regional changes from seasonal to perennial transmission; and the spread ofvector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease into areas currently disease-free.Water quality could become a great concern for Manitobans because ofpotential increases in water borne transmission of diseases and bacteria. Airquality is another health issue because higher concentrations of airborneallergens like pollen and molds could lead to increased incidences of asthmaand allergies.


likelihood of more pests and pest species. The increased temper-atures in the winter could reducethe amount of winterkill of fall-seeded crops, but might alsoreduce the winterkill of someweeds and insects. Livestock willbenefit from the warmer wintertemperatures, but will be morevulnerable to heat stress during thesummer months. More frequentwinter thaws could trigger waterand soil erosion.

Manitoba forests will be more sus-ceptible to wildfires and pests dur-ing the summers and the forests’ideal habitat will be pushed furthernorth. The concern is that thenorthern soils will not be able tosupport southern forest types untilthe soil develops further, whichcould take up to 10,000 years. Asseen in Figure 4, climate changemodels predict an overall decreasein forest area because of moisturedeficits in the south and lack ofsuitable soil in the north.Combined, these changes wouldcause the proportion of har-vestable trees to immature trees tobecome increasingly skewed.There will be fewer mature trees tocut down and as the climatechanges, it will take longer for treesin the boreal forest to reach a har-vestable age. Eventually, theforestry industry will end up inserious danger as forest productiv-ity drops.

Water quality in Manitoba mightbe in jeopardy because of thewarmer temperatures and lowervolumes in the summer. As thevolume in surface water decreases,pollution levels increase. Theincreased spring volumes couldalso lead to higher levels of pollu-tion, as land is flooded andmanure and other storage facili-ties—like municipal lagoons—arebreached. If the spring water is

The International andCanadian Responses toClimate ChangeA Brief International History

Fifteen years ago, climate change was a little-known issuediscussed by meteorologists and scientists at specialized

conferences. Today, it is the focus of unprecedented effortsby governments, businesses, organizations, communities andindividuals to arrange and coordinate their policies, economicactivities and lifestyles to ensure a sustainable future. Apartfrom a string of hot years and wild weather, what broughtclimate change to the public consciousness?

In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization and the United NationsEnvironment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC), a body of several hundred of the world’s top cli-mate change scientists and experts. Its mandate is to review the science ofclimate change, study the environmental impacts and the socio-economiceffects, and develop response strategies to address the problem and adapt tothe changing environment. Through its three working groups, the IPCCproduced reports on these issues and is now considered the leading scientificauthority on climate change. In particular, the IPCC has produced three


Assessment Reports—in 1990,1995 and 2001—which containpredictions and scenarios for theextent of climate change over the21st century, detailed assessmentsof climate change vulnerability,impacts and adaptation needs atthe regional level, and analyses ofmitigation options.5

Meanwhile, governments gottogether through the UnitedNations to give shape to an inter-national set of rules to combat cli-mate change. At the 1992 EarthSummit in Rio de Janeiro, 150countries agreed to the UnitedNations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC).In doing so, they acknowledgedthe need for preventative, precau-tionary action to slow climatechange by limiting emissions ofhuman-made greenhouse gases.

0

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USA China Russia Japan India Germany UK Canada Italy Mexico

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1990 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Figure 5. Emissions ofcarbon dioxide by country – 1990–1998.

5 All IPCC reports can be found onthe IPCC’s web site:http://www.ipcc.ch

The ultimate goal of the UNFC-CC is to achieve stabilization ofgreenhouse gas concentrations inthe atmosphere “at a level thatwould prevent dangerous anthro-pogenic [human-caused] interfer-ence with the climate system.6” Toachieve this, the treaty outlined aframework for action to control orcut greenhouse gas emissions. Itdivided the world into developingand industrialized countries andrequired the latter group of coun-tries, including Canada, to imple-ment actions with the aim of stabi-lizing emissions at 1990 levels by2000.

The UNFCCC came into force in1994. It was immediately appar-ent, for a number of reasons, thatthe commitments under theUNFCCC would not be sufficientin addressing climate change: thetreaty did not cover major devel-oping country emitters, such asChina, Brazil or India; the stabi-lization goal among industrializedcountries, even if met, would notsolve the problem; and a signifi-cant number of countries, includ-ing Canada and the United States,were not able to achieve even thosemodest emissions reduction goals.In 1995, the IPCC released itsSecond Assessment Report con-taining a strong message on theexpected level of global warmingand extent to which it is caused byhuman activity. Countries thenbegan to negotiate towards a pro-tocol to the Convention thatwould contain tougher, legally-binding emissions reduction tar-gets.

In December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, those negotiations culminated in theKyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC. Under the Protocol, developed countriesagreed to reduce their overall emissions of six major greenhouse gases to 5.2per cent below 1990 levels by 2008–2012. This overall target was translat-ed into individual targets for each industrialized country. Canada, for exam-ple, committed to reduce its emissions by six per cent below 1990 levels.The U.S. and the European Union committed to reductions of seven andeight per cent respectively.

On the surface these do not seem like onerous targets. They are only a firststep in achieving the UNFCCC’s goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concen-trations in the atmosphere at a level that would minimize human-inducedclimate change. But the Protocol is extraordinarily significant in that it aims,in effect, to de-link economic growth and fossil fuel use, thereby reversing thetrend followed by industrialized countries since the Industrial Revolution.This is no easy task. In nearly all developed countries, greenhouse gas emis-sions have been increasing sharply since 1990 and most “business-as-usual”scenarios predict continued strong growth. As a result, most countries willneed to achieve a complete reversal of emissions rates—and reductions inthe order of 20 to 30 per cent from business-as-usual—if they want to meettheir targets. The extent of change mandated by the Kyoto Protocol makesit not only an important environmental agreement, but also arguably themost far-reaching economic treaty ever negotiated by the global communi-ty. As such, the devil is in the details, and those details have been the sub-ject of protracted and often acrimonious negotiations since 1997.

Resolving the political issues in the Kyoto Protocol will not be straightfor-ward. The most recent negotiations, held in The Netherlands in November2000, collapsed after governments failed to agree on any of the issues out-lined above. Since most countries will not ratify the Protocol until theseissues are well on their way to resolution, the prospects for the new regimeare tenuous.


6 United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change,1992, Article 2.


Outstanding Issues in the International Climate NegotiationsThere are four major political issues in the climate change negotiations on which coun-tries cannot agree. One point of contention is the three market-based mechanisms thatdeveloped countries negotiated to help them to meet their targets at the lowest possiblecost. These “Kyoto mechanisms” provide various ways for entities in developed coun-tries to purchase credits for emissions reductions effected in other parts of the world.The principle behind these mechanisms is that the atmosphere does not care where inthe world the emissions are reduced; the effect is the same. So countries—and busi-nesses—that have targets might as well make the emissions cuts where the cheapestopportunities exist. Many businesses, for example, will find it cheaper to invest in mod-ernizing crumbling infrastructure in Russia or improving energy efficiency in Chinathan making more expensive cuts at home. These three mechanisms are intended,under the Protocol, to supplement a range of domestic policies and measures thatwould stimulate emissions reductions in each industrialized country. The extent towhich countries can trade their way to their emissions target remains controversial, withsome countries pushing for a concrete limit to emissions trading in order to ensure actu-al cuts in emissions in each industrialized country.

The Kyoto Protocol allows countries to meet part of their target by increasing theamount of carbon that is absorbed from the atmosphere by carbon “sinks,” such asforests, on their territory. It also provides for future inclusion of other types of sinks,such as agricultural soils. Sequestering, or storing, carbon can be a very cost-efficientmeans to reduce net emissions. Several technical difficulties are associated with sinks,however, such as measuring the amount of carbon sequestered and ensuring it is not re-released through fires and other events. And there is concern that some countries, inparticular the United States, might have such a large carbon sink that they can avoidreducing emissions at all in energy, transportation and industry.

Another issue bogging down the Kyoto Protocol is deciding what kind of penalties orconsequences countries will face if they do not meet their targets. There are severaloptions on the negotiating table, ranging from policy assistance to help a country meetits target, to “restoring” emissions from future commitment periods at a penalty rate, totrade sanctions and direct financial penalties. Ideally, the Protocol’s compliance systemwould increase the likelihood that countries will try to meet their targets, thus levellingthe economic playing field and maintaining the environmental integrity of the KyotoProtocol. If the consequences of non-compliance are too harsh, countries that find ittoo difficult or expensive to comply might simply drop out of the treaty. If they are tooweak, countries will have no incentive to reduce their emissions.

An even bigger political albatross around the neck of the climate change treaty is theparticipation of developing countries, who do not have emissions reduction targets.With 80 per cent of the world’s population, developing countries are responsible foronly 40 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Industrialized countries, on theother hand, are responsible for 60 per cent of the annual emissions and 80 per cent ofthe historical build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. For these reasons, devel-oping countries argue that leadership in tackling climate change should lie with indus-trialized countries. Many developed countries, particularly the U.S., counter that allcountries except the very poorest must do their part, and that exempting major emit-ters like China from assuming an emissions reduction target will give developing coun-try industries an unfair competitive advantage in international markets.

One thing is clear: even without an agreement to implement the KyotoProtocol, the issue of climate change will not go away for one very

simple reason—the international process has successfully catapulted theproblem of climate change onto virtually every other agenda. In fact, gov-ernments’ participation in this issue has often been overtaken by businesses,non-governmental organizations, communities and individuals who haverecognized the need to prepare for a carbon-constrained future and havealready begun to act.

Prior to the negotiations in Kyoto in 1997, few businesses or industry asso-ciations paid much attention to climate change. A handful watched devel-opments cautiously while others lobbied their governments against any kindof treaty on the grounds that the science was unsound and the economiccosts would be unacceptable.

But competing signals began to emerge as early as May 1997. BritishPetroleum CEO Sir John Browne, in a speech at Stanford University, brokeranks with the oil industry by acknowledging the role of fossil fuels in thebuildup of greenhouse gases and the need to address the problem of globalwarming. Then the French oil group Elf Aquitaine pledged to cut its emis-sions by 15 per cent of 1990 levels by 2010. In 1998, executives from majoroil companies such as Royal Dutch/Shell Group, Texaco and Sun Oil Co.publicly acknowledged that fossil fuels might be changing the climate andsuggested that companies begin focusing on how to reduce greenhouse gasemissions.

The World Business Council for Sustainable Development created itsClimate and Energy program to explore ways for businesses to manage riskand mitigate their emissions. In May, 1998, the Pew Center on ClimateChange was established with a number of major corporate participants,including Boeing; Lockheed-Martin; Toyota; Maytag and Whirlpool;United Technologies and 3M; British Petroleum; Sun Oil; AmericanElectric Power; U.S. Generating Co.; Enron, Ontario Power Generation;and Trans-Alta Utilities. They are all committed to seek ways to reduce theirown emissions and to invest in more efficient products and technologies.

Companies also began to initiate forestry projects to offset their emissions,set voluntary reduction targets, and undertake work on cleaner technologies,such as solar energy, wind energy and hydrogen fuel cells to power automo-biles. Companies also began to engage in external carbon trades and pilotprojects in anticipation of the introduction of emissions trading systems.


Some were faced with stockholderresolutions that would requirethem to examine the impacts oftheir policies on global warming.Battered by a suite of extremeweather events in the 1990s, theinsurance industry stepped up itslobbying efforts calling for actionon climate change.

At the same time, the concept ofemissions trading took root withthe establishment of many publicand private “carbon” funds. Theseare similar to mutual funds, exceptthat the pool of funds from variousinvestors is put into projects thatreduce greenhouse gas emissions.Investors can use the emissionsreduction credits that are generat-ed from the projects to complywith their target or to sell to some-one else who needs them. Notableamong these carbon funds is theWorld Bank’s Prototype CarbonFund, capitalized by private com-panies and governments.Meanwhile, governments consid-ered or established pilot emissionstrading projects in cooperationwith firms, while companies suchas BP and Shell implementedinternal emissions tradingschemes. Major brokerages, banksand consulting firms launchedsophisticated web sites to helpcompanies manage carbon risks,reduce emissions and participatein trading.

Many large corporations haveformed coalitions with environ-mental groups to enhance thecredibility of their efforts to tackleclimate change. Early in 2001,seven large energy and manufac-turing corporations announced avoluntary partnership to reduceemissions of greenhouse gases,with the results to be monitored byEnvironmental Defense, a U.S.-based environmental organization.Polaroid Corporation agreed to

Businesses andEnvironmental Groups onthe International Climate

Change Scene


cut carbon dioxide emissions by 25per cent in the next 10 years andswitch to cleaner fuels and technol-ogy as part of the “Climate SaversProgram,” of the World WildlifeFund. The U.S.-based WorldResources Institute has undertakena program with a number of busi-ness associations and corporationsto develop an international proto-col for measuring and reportingcorporate greenhouse gas emis-sions.

Non-governmental organizationsalso have stepped up their effortsto promote awareness of and solu-tions to climate change. A hugeproportion of the body of knowl-edge on climate change impacts,adaptation and mitigation strate-gies has been produced by thinktanks, policy research organiza-tions and university research cen-tres. The Climate ChangeKnowledge Network, whichinvolves 14 research organizationsfrom developing and developedcountries, is one example of howsuch organizations are workingtogether to develop policies andprojects that bridge internationalpolitical and economic divides.The International Institute forSustainable Development, head-quartered in Winnipeg, is thecoordinator of this network.

Environmental advocacy groups have also been extremely active at everylevel promoting action on climate change. Several hundred such organiza-tions have united under the umbrella of the Climate Action Network,which, through offices throughout the world, works to raise public aware-ness and influence the outcome of negotiations over the Kyoto Protocol.

Canada’s Role

Canada contributes approximately two per cent of global greenhouse gasemissions—a contribution that appears modest but, given our small

population, actually represents a significant part of the problem. WhileCanada has taken big steps in improving the energy efficiency of its pro-duction and industrial processes, it remains the second highest per capitaproducer of greenhouse gas emissions among major industrialized countries.

What is “Emissions Trading?” Emissions trading is a policy tool that caps emissions at a reduced level to ensure environmental results anduses market-based incentives to lower the cost of environmental control. It works like this: each emitter (orcompany) is assigned an emissions allowance, usually calculated in tonnes of CO2. A company that can reduceits emissions quite cheaply has a cash incentive to do better than its allowance, because it can sell the excessemissions allowance to a company whose costs are higher. Thus, where the cost of controlling emissions dif-fers from source to source, emissions trading lowers the cost of meeting emissions targets. Emissions tradingis not limited to companies, though. Under the Kyoto Protocol, countries with targets will also be able to tradetheir allowances. Since greenhouse gases are global pollutants, the environmental impact of reducing them isthe same no matter where the reductions take place. The same overall reduction is achieved, total costs arereduced and buyers and sellers gain from the savings allowed by trading.

01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Meg

aton

nes

of G

HG

Em

issi

ons

531

669

21%

628Business as usual

Kyoto Target500

600

700

800

Preliminary update

25%

704

AAGR (average annual growth rate) 2000–2010

Business as usual (BAU) 0.6%Preliminary update 1.3%

Kyoto Target -1.6%

Figure 6. Canada’s Kyoto Protocol challenge.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

sultations with stakeholders and provinces referred to as the NationalClimate Change Process. In total, 16 Climate Change Issue Tables wereestablished, covering all relevant sectors and issues.

Each Table was required to produce a state of the sector report, referred toas a Foundation Paper, as well as an Options Report, outlining potentialstrategies to reduce GHG emissions in each sector. Membership of eachTable included the private sector, governments, universities and non-gov-ernment organizations. The Table reports were synthesized into a compre-hensive document outlining the sources of emissions and opportunities toreduce emissions from each sector.

These reports, along with extensive consultations between federal, provincial,territorial and municipal governments, fed into a comprehensive federal strat-egy to reduce GHG emissions called “Action Plan 2000,” which is available atthe National Climate Change Process web site (http://www.nccp.ca). Eachprovince is currently developing its own strategies to address climate changeand complement the federal plan. The provincial action plans that are com-pleted are also included on the web site. Manitoba is in the process of devel-oping a strategy and has recently committed to finish a first draft of the Planby the end of 2001.

Action Plan 2000 targets key sectors that account for over 90 per cent ofCanada’s greenhouse gas emissions. Those sectors are transportation, energy(oil and gas production and electricity), industry, buildings, forestry andagriculture. The Plan also includes support for technology development, sci-ence and adaptation, and emissions-reducing projects in other countries.The initiatives outlined in the Plan will take Canada one third of the waytowards meeting its Kyoto target. It will also provide other benefits toCanadians, such as cost economic savings from improvements in energyefficiency and health benefits from cleaner air.7


While this can partially be attrib-uted to unique circumstances, par-ticularly around Canada’s climate,geography, population and eco-nomic structure, Canada has right-fully committed to do its part byagreeing, in the Kyoto Protocol, toreduce its emissions by six per centfrom 1990 levels by 2008–2012.Like all other industrialized coun-tries, the Canadian governmenthas yet to ratify the Protocol.Ratification will likely only occurwhen the government, in consulta-tion with provinces and stakehold-ers, has developed a national planthat will specifically lay out thepolicies and measures Canada willadopt in order to reach its target.Due in no small part to close andactive trade relations with theUnited States, the actions ourneighbour to the south takes tomeet its own Kyoto target will alsoundoubtedly play a critical role indetermining prospects for Canadaratifying the Protocol.

In response to the Kyoto Protocol,the federal government establisheda National Climate ChangeSecretariat. The Secretariatlaunched a series of intensive con-

Transportation11.4%

Energy17.1%

Pulp and paper4.7%

Agriculture10%

Mining3.8%

Institutional12.3%

Other2.9%

Electric utility18.9%

Manufacturing18.9%Figure 7. Canadian

greenhouse gas emissions by sector.

Source: Natural ResourcesCanada: Canada’s EnergyOutlook 1996-2020

7 Government of Canada. Government of Canada Action Plan 2000 on Climate Change.Government of Canada: 2000.

Figure 8 outlines the emissionsfrom most provinces and demon-strates the challenge Canada willface in reducing its greenhouse gasemissions by more than 25 percent from “Business as Usual” pro-jections.

Industry, EnvironmentalGroups and Municipalities onthe Canadian Climate ChangeScene

Over the past five to 10 years, Canadian businesses, communities andenvironmental groups have become increasingly engaged in addressing

climate change. Businesses have focused largely on developing voluntary andmarket-based approaches to reducing their emissions. Individual corporationstypically count on a range of measures to curb their overall emissions, includ-ing improving their energy efficiency, installing new technology and reducingtheir customers’ emissions by making more energy-efficient products.

In addition, many companies are exploring the possibility of buying andselling emissions units in Canada and overseas. The idea is that companiescan reduce emissions outside their main operations and that these effortscan be translated into tradable paper emission credits or “offsets.” Offsetscan be generated in several ways: doing much better than one’s GHG targetand selling the unused emissions allowances through emissions trading,


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia

Megatonnes of CO Equivalent

1990 2000 2010 2020

2

Figure 8. Provincial greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: Natural Resources Canada


British Columbia. These programs aim to provide their participants withpractical experience in emissions trading and to evaluate trading as a tool toassist in the reduction of GHG emissions. Over 50 corporations, environ-mental organizations and government departments are members of PERT;GERT’s roughly two dozen members include industry associations, envi-ronmental groups, and federal and provincial government departments.

A number of Canadian corporations have developed and implemented cli-mate change action plans, which have been set out in their public reportingof environmental or sustainable development performance. Early leadersinclude TransAlta, Suncor, Ontario Power Generation and Shell Canada. Anumber of other corporations, such as BP and DuPont, are pursuing the cli-mate change targets of their international parent companies. These actionplans have been a cornerstone of the voluntary approach to GHG emissionsmanagement pioneered by Canada’s Climate Change Voluntary Challengeand Registry (VCR).

Environmental and public-interest groups have been remarkably active inresearching and analyzing policy options, promoting government action onclimate change, educating Canadians about the issue and collaborating withindustry to find ways to reduce GHG emissions. Organizations such as thePembina Institute for Appropriate Development, West CoastEnvironmental Law, the Sierra Club of Canada and the Winnipeg-basedInternational Institute for Sustainable Development have participated in thenational Issues Table process, in consultation committees to advise the fed-eral government and even, alongside their industry counterparts, on theCanadian delegation to the international climate change negotiations.

implementing projects abroad thatreduce emissions against a set base-line, or planting or preserving aforest that absorbs carbon dioxide.Thus, an organization couldreduce its “net” GHG emissions—emissions from its own operationsminus offsets purchased—by mak-ing the reductions where it ischeapest to make them.

Industry has played a key role inestablishing several Canadianorganizations and programs whosegoals are to create a better under-standing about how these market-based approaches might work. In1996, 10 companies formed thenot-for-profit Greenhouse GasEmission Management Consortium(GEMCo). The Pilot EmissionsReduction Trading Project(PERT) was established the sameyear, and the Greenhouse GasEmissions Reduction Trading Pilot(GERT) was established in 1998at the initiative of the province of

Canada’s Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and RegistryVoluntary Challenge and Registry Inc. (VCR Inc.) is a stand-alone corporation dedicated to encouraging—or challenging—private and public sector organizations in Canada to voluntarily limit their greenhouse gasemissions. After a period of incubation as a government program, VCR was incorporated as an independententity in 1997 and became a public-private partnership drawing funds from corporations as well as federaland provincial governments.

The Registry component of VCR Inc.’s operations records the actions planned and executed by its regis-trants, providing them with the opportunity to exchange information and to share best practices with theirpeers. Registrants currently represent over 75 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions from business and indus-trial sources in Canada. As of March 2001, 760 organizations from all sectors of the economy had regis-tered action plans with VCR Inc., including the federal government and all provincial governments. VCRInc. provides guidelines and a reporting template to organizations wishing to develop and register theirGHG action plans.

In October 2000, VCR Inc. introduced the Champions in Action Initiative. Under this plan, participatingcompanies, associations, municipalities, governments and other entities will enter into voluntary agreementswith performance targets for Canadian entity-wide, “net” GHG emission reductions. VCR Inc. will thenreview, approve, track and report over time, the achievement of these agreements. The aim of the Championsin Action Initiative is to provide Canadian organizations and governments with the ability to test the designand implementation of the voluntary target approach.

A few examples illustrate the diverse range of activitiesundertaken by non-governmental organizations totackle climate change. The Clean Air RenewableEnergy (CARE) coalition, an alliance of several majorCanadian environmental groups and energy compa-nies, formed in 2000. It has called on the federal gov-ernment to introduce tax credits for individual con-sumers who purchase renewable energy and broadenthe incentives to industry to research and develop“green” power technologies. In 1999–2000, theInternational Institute for Sustainable Developmentpartnered with the Inuit community of SachsHarbour on Banks Island, in a project that highlight-ed the disastrous effects of climate change in Canada’sArctic. The Pembina Institute for AppropriateDevelopment has held workshops for journalists andis developing curricula on climate change for use inschools. And in February 2001, the David SuzukiFoundation released a report outlining concrete, sec-tor-specific ideas for reducing GHG emissions inBritish Columbia.

Municipalities, too, have become increasingly engagedon the climate change issue over the past decade. Intheir own operations, municipal governments consumefuel and electricity for waste treatment, building opera-tion, water distribution, fleet operation and wastewatertreatment. Landfill sites emit methane, a powerfulgreenhouse gas. The Partners for Climate Protection(PCP) program is one way municipal governments cansystematically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. PCP, apartnership between the Federation of CanadianMunicipalities and the International Council for LocalEnvironmental Initiatives, now has over 80 membermunicipal governments including Winnipeg, SwanRiver, The Pas and Virden in Manitoba. The goal of theprogram is to encourage municipalities to reduce theirgreenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent in relation to1990 levels within 10 years of joining the PCP pro-gram. Members are encouraged to take a sort of five-step program involving taking stock of greenhouse gasemissions in municipal operations and community-wide; setting a realistic target for reducing emissions;developing a local action plan together with communi-ty stakeholders, and then implementing it.

The Implications ofClimate Change forManitoba:Opportunities andChallenges

With the recent conclusions of theIPCC that the rate of climate

change is going to be more severe thanexpected, it is crucial for Manitoba, as partof the national and global response, todevelop a framework for action that showsserious intent in addressing the risk of climate change.

By being proactive in helping Canada meet its Kyototarget, Manitoba industries have an opportunity todevelop new markets by becoming leaders in thedevelopment and diffusion of climate change friendlytechnologies. There are many excellent examples oflarge and small businesses in the province successfullycapitalizing on the opportunities created in an envi-ronment that is placing greater emphasis on reducinggreenhouse gas emissions. Business and industry canincrease market share, gain competitive advantage andincrease shareholder value by developing managementplans that consider climate change. For example,approaching the challenge of emissions reductionsthrough efficiencies across the entire manufacturingprocess, instead of seeking end-of-pipe solutions, hasbeen shown time and time again to positively affectthe bottom line. Manitoba has a number of criticalcompetitive niches—in the energy and transportationsectors, for example—in addressing climate changethat would work to enhance economic developmentopportunities in the province. Additionally, innova-tion should continue to be nurtured and promoted.There are a great many existing Manitoban businessand industry networks perfect for highlighting suc-cess, communicating new government programs,exchanging information and creating new partner-ships.

From a policy perspective, Manitoba needs to thinkabout how it could reduce its current greenhouse gas


Manitoba’s Economic Sectors AgricultureLand use for agriculture in 1996 totaled over 7.7 million hectares inManitoba, or over 50 per cent of total lands with agricultural potential. In1998, 4.8 million hectares were seeded to crops; 0.18 million hectares hadbeen summer-fallowed; and two million hectares were pasture lands.8

Although southern Manitoba has the climate and soil to grow a wide rangeof crops, the traditional grain crops of wheat and barley occupied the largestarea. Manitoba produces other crops, including canola, oats, rye, flaxseed,sunflower and mixed grains. Manitoba is not only an important source ofgrains and oilseeds, but is also a major area for the production of specialtycrops in Canada. The production of specialty crops like buckwheat, canaryseed, dry beans, dry peas and lentils has increased over the past years due tothe larger areas being devoted to these crops and higher yields. In addition,Manitoba’s livestock and vegetable (particularly potato) industries representimportant players in the agriculture sectors.

Agriculture can play an important role in Manitoba’s response to the climatechange challenge by adopting sustainable agricultural practices that wouldwork to sequester and reduce GHG emissions. Examples include increasedzero tillage, reduced summer fallow, improved grazing strategies, and con-version of croplands to wetlands and wildlife habitats. These proceduresstore and absorb carbon, instead of releasing it into the atmosphere where itwould contribute to climate change. Other areas with promise include crop


emissions, as well as adapt to thenew climate conditions. Manitoba’sGHG emissions are among the low-est in Canada, mainly because of itsvast hydro-electricity resources andthe fact that there are few large car-bon-based manufacturing facilitiesin the province. By promotingincreased eco-efficiency (reducingthe number of resource inputs andwaste outputs), business and indus-try can make significant economicand competitive gains over theirpeers in other provinces. This is anopportunity to see the provincedevelop a stronger economy byreacting early and strategically to cli-mate change. Manitoba also needsto identify which private and publicinstitutions are best suited to delivercost-effective GHG reduction andsequestration opportunities.

Manitoba greenhouse gas emis-sions are different from otherprovinces’ because of lower energyemissions and a higher ratio ofemissions from agriculture. Toillustrate: emissions can be brokendown into four major areas: agri-culture, transportation, residentialand industrial activity. The agricul-ture emissions are made up from65 per cent nitrous oxide, mainlyfrom fertilizer and soil tillage, 30per cent methane, mainly fromlivestock, and four per cent carbondioxide. This is very different fromthe other three sectors, where thevast majority of GHG emissionsare in the form of carbon dioxide.

Taking action now to begin adapt-ing to the threat of climate changewill work to minimize costs forfuture generations. It is more effec-tive and less expensive to adapt toclimate change over time ratherthan being forced to adopt moreextreme, emergency adaptationtechniques in the future when thebest solutions are not necessarilyavailable.

Agriculture34%

(7,200)

Residential and Commercial

Buildings13%

(2,800)

Other5%

(900)

Energy7%

(1,400)

Manufacturing and Industrial Activity

6%(1,300)

Transportation35%

(7,500)

Total: 21,100 kilotonnes of CO2 equivalent

Figure 9. Manitoba emissions by sector in 1998.


8 Manitoba Agriculture, http://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture

nutrient management, livestock nutrient management, manure manage-ment and the development of fuels from the processing of grains, garbageand trees. However, keep in mind that the sheer number of farmers and thecomplexity of the systems make the monitoring and verification of individ-ual actions very difficult and expensive. In general, the Canadian agricultureindustry, including Manitoba’s, operates in global markets with a con-


strained capacity to pass additionalcosts on to consumers.

The research directed towardGHG reduction in agriculture isstill at a preliminary stage. Moreknowledge about the effects of cur-rent technologies and their role intoday’s farming systems is needed.Research into these areas will resultin the development of more sus-tainable technologies in the future.

ForestryManitoba forests make up about26.3 million hectares of theprovince’s 54.8 million hectareland base.9 There are two maintypes of forests in Manitoba: theNorthern Coniferous and theBroadleaf/Mixedwood forests. TheNorthern Coniferous, or borealforest, is Manitoba’s largest forestzone. It covers a broad area acrossthe north-central and central partof the province, extending acrossthe eastern border into Ontario.This forest contains black sprucein the lowland bogs and fens; andjack pine, poplar and white spruceon the uplands.

Manitoba’s boreal forests supportthe majority of the province’s forestindustry, providing resources forcraft paper, lumber and newsprint.First Nations communities arelocated throughout the boreal for-est and the area is an importanttourist destination. TheBroadleaf/Mixedwood forest, orAspen Parkland, dominates thesouth-central portion of theprovince.

In 1997, forestry contributed $418million in gross domestic product(GDP) to Manitoba’s economy.Approximately 9,000 people areemployed directly by the forest

A Manitoba fall harvest. Climate issues could spellmajor changes for agriculture.Photo courtesy Manitoba Agriculture

Manure Management12%

EntericFermentation

22%

Agricultural Soils66%

Figure 10. Emissions from the agricultural sector.

9 Manitoba Conservation,http://www.gov.mb.ca/natres/forestry/

industry. Of Manitoba’s forested lands, about 94 percent are owned by the province. The federal govern-ment owns one per cent and the remaining five per centis privately owned. The annual allowable harvest limitfor timber on Manitoba’s Open Crown Lands is justunder 9.7 million cubic metres, while the actual harvestin 1996 was 2.1 million cubic metres on 15,342hectares of land. While the forestry industry has beenexport-oriented, the industry is becoming more global-ized. Yields from equatorial regions of the world areconsiderably higher than that of Manitoba, and withnew technologies, it is easier to substitute Manitoba’ssoftwood with this hardwood from the south.

The forestry sector in Manitoba has the opportunityto reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by improvingits energy efficiencies as well as activities that captureand store more carbon through photosynthesis ofCO2 from the atmosphere into the wood of the tree.By reducing its dependence on fossil fuels and switch-ing to other power sources in the processing of theproducts, the forestry sector can reduce some of itsgreenhouse emissions. Through efforts in the ethanolindustry, the forestry sector might have the opportu-nity to produce material for the development of effi-cient ethanol production using hybrid poplars andother fast growing trees. The other potential for theforestry sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions isthrough the photosynthesis of carbon dioxide fromthe atmosphere into the wood of the trees.

There is a need to conduct more research and focus onsocial, economic and policy impacts. There is poten-

tial for an increase in Aspen Parkland forests, whichcould supply the industry with other materials. Aswith most sectors, forestry has the ability to developnew technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsand also adapt to climate change through the use ofnew tree varieties that enhance growth potential aswell as have lower water requirements.

There are a number of adaptation options for theforestry sector to address. Emphasis on diversity-resilience, such as mixed wood management, is seen asa critical step forward. Increased levels of managementfor seedling survival and firebreaks to prevent firespread are also adaptive strategies. The key opportunityfor the forestry sector is to start pilot programs on for-est management with a focus on adapting to climatechange and pursuing activities that would work toincrease forestry’s sequestration capacity.

Energy In 1997, Manitoba’s energy requirements cost con-sumers $2.8 billion. Manitoba produced about half asmuch energy as it consumed in 1997. The rest waspurchased from outside the province, mainly in the


Aspen Parkland. About 9,000 Manitobans are employeddirectly by the forestry industry.Photo by Elaine Gauer, Manitoba Agriculture

Forests cover about 26.3 million hectares of the province.Photo by Elaine Gauer, Manitoba Agriculture

form of natural gas, which cost Manitobans $2 billion that year.Hydroelectricity supplies close to 25 per cent of the energy or 99 per centof the electricity consumed in Manitoba. In fact, Manitoba currently pro-duces a surplus of hydro-sourced energy and exports about half of its elec-tricity. Producing and distributing hydroelectricity from existing infrastruc-ture does not result in significant levels of greenhouse gas emissions and thuscould be considered a “climate-friendly” power source. Other forms ofrenewable energy in Manitoba include wood, ethanol and electricity from thewind and sun. To date, Manitoba has not placed a great deal of emphasis onalternate forms of renewable energy, because of the relatively low cost ofhydroelectricity production.

A future carbon-constrained world represents a real economic opportunityfor Manitoba’s hydro industry. As fossil-fuel burning power plants in otherparts of North America are phased out, the demand for hydroelectricity is


expected to rise. Moreover, if anemissions trading system is intro-duced in North America, hydroproducers might be able to beattheir emissions target and sellexcess emissions allowances to util-ities who cannot meet their targets.

In addition, Manitoba has a num-ber of options to reduce its green-house gas emissions from its use ofenergy, as well as build up its expert-ise on renewable energy options.Green technologies, such as mini-hydro turbines that minimize envi-ronmental disruptions, photovolta-ic cells (solar cells) and windmills,can all contribute to reducinggreenhouse gas emissions. Byincluding potential greenhouse gasemissions into the approval processof projects, Manitoba could reducenew GHGs before they are emitted.

TransportationTransportation is an integral part ofManitoba’s economy. Because ofManitoba’s large area and sparselydistributed population, the trans-portation system is very extensive.The vast majority of passengertransportation is based on automo-biles, with considerably fewer peo-ple using public transit, cycling andwalking in urban centres. Longerpassenger travel also includes inter-city buses, trains and air, with someminor uses of marine. Freight trans-portation is supported by trucks,railways, air, marine and pipelines.Trucking is the most significantform of moving freight within theprovince and between the provinceand other locations. Manitoba’strucking industry consists of 33major carriers, a third of which arebased in Winnipeg.10

An older hydroelectric power generating station. New technologies will reduce theamount of water needed to operate these stations.Photo courtesy Manitoba Hydro

The Limestone Generating Station on the Nelson River. Renewable ener-gy sources supply close to 25 per cent of energy consumed in Manitoba.

Photo courtesy Manitoba Hydro.

10 Manitoba Industry, Trade andTourism,http://www.gov.mb.ca/itt/trade/invest/bus_facts/trans_infractructure/

support the weight of trucks hauling materials to the remote communities.When trucks cannot make the journey north, people must rely on airplanes,thereby increasing the cost of goods in these communities. Marine trans-portation could benefit from climate change due to the warmer conditionsthat will extend the season for Manitoba’s only seaport at Churchill.Movement of grain from the port of Churchill has increased dramatically in2000, almost doubling 1999 movements due to an increasing ice-free seasonon the Hudson Bay.

Transportation represents one of the most significant sources of greenhousegas emissions in Manitoba, contributing approximately one third. Thisplaces increased pressure on the transportation sector in Manitoba to devel-op systems to reduce emissions.

A number of options have been suggested to reduce transportation-relatedgreenhouse gases, with the majority of them focusing on urban movement.The transit system needs to improve speed, information about routes andlocation of vehicles. Most people do not enjoy waiting for the bus in thewinter months. Telecommuting—working from home and communicatingwith the main office electronically—has also been suggested as a way toreduce emissions.

The trucking industry also has options to reduce its greenhouse gases,including training of operators to be more efficient, the use of longer trucksand load matching. Load matching ensures the truck travels with a full load.Empty trucks use similar amounts of fuel as loaded trucks. Opportunitiesfor inter-modal shifts in transporting freight—from trucking to rail, forexample—also need to be explored.

Manitoba is also home to many new technology industries in the transporta-tion sector. Whether in the field of alternative fuels or developing alternativesto the internal combustion engine, these industries provide another uniqueopportunity for Manitoba to use climate change to its economic advantage.For these industries to succeed, the development of a supportive infrastructurewill be critical, inside Manitoba and throughout North America.


A number of key challenges facetransportation in Manitoba. Onthe passenger side, nearly 80 percent of Manitobans rely on auto-mobiles to get to work.11 Urbanbus transport has been decreasing,even though the numbers of busesand routes are increasing. Time-wise, it is still more efficient formost people travelling from thesuburbs to offices downtown to usetheir own vehicles instead of relyingon public transit. On the freightside, the demand for transportationis based on the products movingeither in or out of the province,including movements within theprovince. This derived demand isnot something the transport systemcan control, which limits some ofits options to adapt. Also, manyindustries operate on a “just intime” basis which puts moreemphasis on rapid delivery onproducts, again limiting someoptions for reductions in green-house gas emissions.

Travel to northern communities isvery dependent on the weatherproducing solid winter roads that

11 IISD, Sustainable Transportation inthe Prairies, unpublished researchreport, 1997.

Off-roadGasoline Vehicles

5%

Light-dutyGasoline Trucks

16%

Motorcycles< 1%

Heavy-dutyGasoline Trucks

3%

GasolineAutomobiles

19%

Propane and NaturalGas Vehicles

2% Light-dutyDiesel Trucks

< 1%

Heavy-dutyDiesel Trucks

17%

DieselAutomobiles

< 1%

Off-roadDiesel Vehicles

9%

Domestic Air8%

Domestic Marine< 1%

Rail6%

Pipelines15%

Figure 11. Emissionsfrom the transportationsector.


A Manitoba Success Story– Kraus Group Inc.Kraus Group Inc. is a Manitoba-based company that designs andmanufactures refueling equipmentfor petroleum and alternative fuelsfor the transportation sector. Thecompany constructs fuel-dispensingoutlets in countries all around theworld. It has found that demand forclean alternative transportationfuels—like propane, natural gas andcompressed hydrogen—continuesto grow, especially as countries workto lower urban air pollution andreduce their greenhouse gas emis-sions.

The Kraus Group has translatedthat demand into recent successes,like building the two largest com-pressed natural gas refueling outletson the planet in Mexico City. Eachoutlet has the capacity to service1,600 vehicles a day. Currently, theoutlets are fuelling a fleet of policecars and natural gas converted buses.Future plans in Mexico City call forthe construction of another 100outlets over five years. The KrausGroup is the principal partner inthis project and its participation willhelp Mexico City address its stagger-ing air pollution problem.

http://www.iisd.org/business/kraus.htm

Hydrogen dispenser. Manitoba iswell-positioned to be on the

leading edge of emerging energy technologies.

Photo courtesy Kraus Group Inc.

Manufacturing and Industrial ProcessesThe manufacturing sector in Manitoba includes industries such as aero-space, agribusiness, apparel and textiles, commercial printing, componentmanufacturing, environmental industries, information and communica-tions, and transport equipment—a diversity representing approximately 11per cent of Manitoba’s GDP in 1998. The industrial processing sector isquite small in Manitoba with some non-metallic mineral production andammonia and acid production, among others activities.

Although it is not predicted that manufacturing in Manitoba will be direct-ly impacted by climate change, one indirect effect could be the availabilityof inputs. Industries relying on natural resources, like agriculture andforestry, might experience problems due to the potential changing nature ofthose industries. Water is another example of an input in short supply asmany sectors compete for a smaller amount in the summer months.

The manufacturing sector is only responsible for 5.5 per cent of Manitoba’semissions primarily because of the types of production used in the province.Opportunities for reduction might come from improving energy use withina production process.

Residential and Commercial BuildingsBuildings in Manitoba are also sources of greenhouse gas emissions, repre-senting 15 per cent of the provincial total. The emissions are shared equallybetween residential and commercial buildings. The majority of the build-ings are heated with natural gas, followed by electricity and then wood.

The potentially increasing winter temperatures would reduce the amount ofenergy required to heat the buildings, while the warmer summers couldincrease cooling costs. The net effect should be a decrease in greenhouse gasemissions due to the reduction in natural gas in the winter and increases inelectricity for air conditioning in the summer.

Opportunities to reduce emissions, and potentially operating costs, couldcome from increasing insulation efficiencies as well as building designs thattake advantage of passive heating and cooling. Programs also exist toimprove building efficiencies with Manitoba hydro and other institutions.


Individuals andCommunities Individual Manitobans can make adifference. Each of us has a numberof options for reducing GHG emis-sions. Many of these, such as invest-ing in better home insulation ortaking public transportation, alsosave money in the long run.Natural Resources Canada hasdeveloped a web site athttp://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/ that givessuggestions on what householdscan do to reduce their GHG emis-sions. These include vehicle pur-chases and maintenance, homeinsulation, home appliances andmore. The Pembina Institute’s cli-mate change solutions web site athttp://climatechangesolutions.comoffers suggestions, tips and successstories for how individuals, familiesand even schools (as well as munic-ipalities and businesses) can reducetheir emissions and save money.The Government of Canada’s cli-mate change web site athttp://www.climatechange.gc.cahas an entire section highlightingactions individuals can take thatmake a difference to the global cli-mate.

Municipalities can influence,directly and indirectly, greenhousegas emissions from landfills, trans-portation, heating buildings, andother sources. Effective greenhousegas emissions management bycommunities and municipalitiescalls for careful short-term andlong-term planning. In the shortrun they can monitor emissions,look at reducing barriers to action,and work to increase efficiency.Water conservation and improvedtreatment, along with beneficiallandscaping, are good short-termactivities to adapt to climatechange.

Residential47%

Commercial53%

Figure 12. Emissions from buildings.

In the longer term, municipalities can have a real impact on greenhouse gasemissions through ingenious design of transportation systems, forward-thinking urban planning to minimize urban sprawl, and changes to build-ing codes to improve efficiency. Communities can also help families andindustries adapt and participate in strategies to build up economicresilience. This would require improved access to the best information pos-sible.

Some communities across Canada have experimented with projects toreduce emissions and save costs. For example, Winnipeg has tested captur-ing methane from its wastewater treatment.


You Can Make a Difference By ...

• Leaving the car at home and walking or biking for short trips. For longer trips, take the bus. Onebusload of passengers takes 40 vehicles off the road during rush hour, saves 70,000 litres of fueland avoids over 175 tonnes of emissions a year.

• Avoiding idling your vehicle—ten seconds of idling uses more fuel than restarting your engine.

• Turning off lights, appliances, televisions and computer when they’re not needed.

• Sealing all leaks around doors, windows and cracks where heat escapes from your home (and saveup to 20 per cent on your heating bill!)

• Insulating when you renovate. Over the years, a small up-front cost can pay for itself several timesover in energy savings.

• Checking the EnerGuide label. When buying new household appliances, room air conditioner orvehicle, the EnerGuide label can help you select the most energy-efficient model that meets yourneeds.

• Installing a programmable thermostat to automatically change the temperature of your house atdifferent times of the day. For every degree you lower the heating level, you’ll save two per centon your heating bill.

• Cleaning your furnace filter regularly and keeping your furnace properly tuned. A well-main-tained unit uses 10-15 per cent less energy.

• Reducing consumption of paper and other resource-intensive products, and reusing and recy-cling where possible.

• Selecting food and products that are grown or manufactured locally rather than trucked or flownfrom elsewhere.

Tips courtesy of the Government of Canada’s climate change web site athttp://www.climatechange.gc.ca

The Path Ahead

Climate change is a reality. Manitobans, like all citizens ofthe world, need to recognize this, find ways to reduce

emissions and seek ways to adapt to its impacts. Changingbehaviours and learning to adapt require hard work andinnovation. Some sectors have already undertaken activitiesto take advantage of opportunities and protect themselves,but more work is still required. Reducing GHG emissionsand implementing appropriate adaptation strategies requiresaction from government, industry and individuals.

Manitoba could consider developing an action plan, with the leadership ofthe provincial government, that outlines no-regrets activities, seeks a positionfor the province as a world leader in renewable resources and environmentaltechnologies, promotes adaptation strategies, invests in climate science andencourages individual Manitobans to reduce their emissions.

The government has a responsibility to Manitobans to ensure they arereceiving the most up-to-date information to allow for better decision-makingand to supply research in areas that need it. For example, a better under-standing of the links between climate change, land use, water use and energyuse is required. This is particularly important in policy design, as changes inone sector might have significant effects on others. Methods are requiredthat can estimate some of these effects. Some research and developmentresources provided by the government can create the potential for industryto benefit from adopting better technologies. An informed industry will alsorecognize that, given the importance of the environment in internationalmarkets, and the potential to trade emissions reductions, developing anindustry with low GHG emissions might be good business.

Industries also have a role in reducing GHG emissions and adapting to cli-mate change. Industries can start making significant efforts in reducingGHG emissions by adopting new technologies when aging equipment isreplaced. This reduction can also come from analyzing production process-es to identify efficiencies that will not only reduce emissions, but produceeconomic benefits as well. The International Institute for SustainableDevelopment’s business web site, http://www.iisd.org/business/, offersexamples of methods for analyzing production and seeking efficiencies. Thesite also lists other resources.

Although climate models are becoming more accurate and reliable, theytend to be better at providing global predictions than local ones. Moreover,they do not attempt to address other aspects of climate change, such aseffects on the economy and society. More work is needed to develop com-prehensive models that incorporate all three systems (social, economic andphysical) to address all aspects of adaptation.


The impacts of climate change onManitobans could be significant ifwe do not develop our own robuststrategies to address these potentialchanges. But the changes start athome. Each Manitoban has anobligation to reduce their ownemissions of greenhouse gases notonly for themselves but also theirchildren and their children’s chil-dren.

Climate Change Internet Resources

www.unfccc.int – United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange. This site includes the complete text of the Kyoto Protocol plus sta-tistics and background on climate change.

www.nccp.ca – The National Climate Change Process. This site includesinformation about Canada’s actions on climate change with links to a vari-ety of other web sites.

www.ipcc.ch – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This siteincludes the publications of the IPCC as well as links to other climate websites.

www.climatechange.gc.ca – Government of Canada Climate Change. Thissite has links to federal departments’ material on climate change, describingadaptations and impacts.

www.ec.gov.ca/climate/ccs/ – Canada Country Study. This site highlights theimpacts of climate change throughout Canada.

www.iisd.org/climatechange.htm – International Institute for SustainableDevelopment. IISD’s web site on climate change highlights regional,national and international material on climate change.

www.weathervane.rrf.org – Weathervane. This web site is a digital forum onglobal climate policy published by Resources for the Future.

www.taiga.net/nce – The Northern Climate Exchange. This web site fea-tures climate information on northern regions.

www.pewclimate.org – The Pew Foundation. The Pew Foundation’s climatechange web site focuses on credible information and innovative solutions.

www.pembina.org/climate – The Pembina Institute. This climate changeweb site highlights solutions.

www.vcr-mvr.ca – The Voluntary Challenge Registry. This web site recordssome of the public action taken by Canadian organizations to reduce theirgreenhouse gas emissions.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DU

DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLEIISD

Manitoba Clean Environment Commission

Documents

Manitoba and Climate Change: A Primer€¦ · response to this very real challenge is critical if we want to ensure an accept-able quality of life for future generations of Manitobans