Innovation for the transition:

Managing complexity at provincial and city level–Adrian Stone, Windaba 2018

SEA What we do 1: Making Connections, Building Capacity

SEA What we do 2: Making Sense of Things - Visual Indicators for Lagos 2015 – Use of Gasoline and Diesel

3.4 billion litresPetrol (PMS)

1.5 billion litresDiesel (AGO)

“I betta pass my neighbour”

Contents

• Complexity and the contested policy realm – how the buck stops at the end of the wires

• Tracking the quicksands of change – misadventures in regional and city data collection in South Africa and the Region

• Case studies…ideas…

•Policy as the mediation of competing interests is always complex.•Local government is big in staff terms.

The Root of Complexity - Local Government is not

One Thing….

•Officials in the same department can be active advocates of SSEG and RE at the same time as colleagues are actively resisting inclusion through tariffs and ignore expensive consulting recommendations entirely.

When we have Devolved Agents (Utilities) & a lot of Pressure we see a Complex

Diversity of Embedded Gen Tariffs

Source: Municipal tariff documents and NERSA approved tariff schedule (all 2018/19)

Tariff Type CoJ Cape Town eThekwini NMBMM Tshwane George

Residential Standard

Fixed (R/month) R130.44

Upper IBT (c/kWh)

185.91

<600kWh: 161.15

>600kWh: 222.39

151.61 184.1 194.88 176.65

Residential SSEG

Fixed (R/month) R521.48 R375.95 R244.91 R60.00 R160.26 R379.61

Import (c/kWh)

HDPk: 330.78HDStd: 135.5

HDOffPk: 95.61LDPk: 143.78LDStd: 113.73LDOffPk: 89.48

<600kWh: 120.23

>600kWh: 222.39

151.61Pk: 205Std: 120OffPk: 95

194.88

HDPk: 324.55HDStd: 207.38

HDOffPk: 111.31LDPk: 134.75LDStd: 96.07

LDOffPk: 82.02

Export (c/kWh) 46.91 73.87 74.02Pk: 205Std: 120OffPk: 95

10

HDPk: 294.81HDStd: 89.31HDOffPk: 48.5

LDPk: 96.16LDStd: 66.91

LDOffPk: 42.45

Clearing Monthly Monthly Monthly 1 Bill Cycle Monthly Monthly

Commercial Tariff

Fixed (R/month) R726.26 R1,500.45 R224.02 R783.71 R2,786.38 R2,023.55

Indicated Tariff< 50 kVA

Small Power User

Small to Medium Business

Medium Business ToU

3-Phase <60A BulkCustomers

Commercial SSEG Export (c/kWh)

39.61 73.87 0 Net Metering 10 Same as Res.

Misadventures on The Dark Side of Data: “Don’t worry. The Data will get better…….”

• Government entities with constraints are frequently reassured that, “Start with a rough picture, the data will get better.”

• Is this true or a management trope?

• Partly true at best

• On a 20 year view of energy data in South Africa the quality of service (with notable exceptions) has got better but the quality has got worse as the system has become more complex

• The data only gets better if we make it better

Key message: Data access ≠ Data Quality

Misadventures in Commercial & Industrial Energy Data

Thousands of grant funded energy audits have been undertaken in the last 10 years in South Africa yet a commercial/industrial energy service level data set is not available in the public domain. Why?

• Audits were done by dozens of contracted ESCOs who are not data aware or data focussed. Inconsistent reporting formats. Often not electronic format (just an image based pdf report)

• The focus was on the measures (understandably) not repurposing data collected.

• Grant funders did not stipulate a data plan as a condition of funding

• Inappropriate data security – data should be anonymised high up the reporting chain

Key message: Data Measurement ≠ Data Access ≠ Data Quality

Misadventures in Local Municipality Liquid Fuel Allocation

Cape Town Based Wholesalers?

Mossel Bay Based Wholesalers?

NB: Adjusted for Ankerlig and Gourikwa

Diesel Vehicles

Mode Metro Mileage (km)Rural & Secondary

Mileage (km)

HCV 105,527 28,331

MCV 37,340 10,025

LCV 31,965 6,633

Passenger Car 18,933 5,083

Motorcycles 10,119 2,717

Minibus 41,436 10,980

Bus 38,476 9,499

Diesel Vehicles

Mode Metro Mileage (km)Rural & Secondary

Mileage (km)

HCV 98,203 66,291

MCV 34,749 23,457

LCV 29,746 15,520

Passenger Car 17,619 11,893

Motorcycles 9,417 6,357

Minibus 38,560 25,693

Bus 35,806 22,226

Redistribute 15% of CT diesel and 65% of MosselBay’s Diesel

Calibration for Data as Reported

Key Message: The increased complexity of the value chain means we no longer know how much liquid fuel is consumed locally

Registered Vehicles & Fuel Demand should balance right?

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GRAPH SHOWING THE TREND OF WASTE COLLECTED AND DEPOSITED AT VARIOUS LANDFILL BETWEEN

THE YEAR 1980 - 2016 IN METRIC TONNES

(METRIC TONNES)

Lagos – Where the really crazy numbers get locked up……

2.1 million tonnes of Solid Waste just not collected -Really bru?

This is also navigating complexity:We need money: Report LowWe need to look good: Report High

Energy Master

Plan

As-is Cost of Supply

Study

Network Development

Plan

Geospatial Asset Register with online interface

Spatial Development Framework (SDF)combines Erfs earmarked for development into Future Development Areas (FDAs):• Development window of 0-3 years • Development window of 3-5 years • Development window of 5-10 years

Scenarios (SSEG,

EVs etc)

Load Forecast

Electricity Flow

Model

TAR

IFFS

Innovation Case Study: Proposed Planning and Tariff Setting Framework for George

George Case Study: The Geospatial Asset Register

George Case Study: The Geospatial Asset Register

The usual reduced network diagram (RND) developed enables analysis at the level of ADMD (after diversity maximum demand) at a bus level (given that there is metering there). The detail afforded by what GLS Consulting have developed for George creates the potential for:

• Potential for enhanced load research

• Managing electricity sales

• Isolating losses

• Define subsidies by area

• Responding to outages more effectively because now the control room can see which erfs are connected to which mini-subs very quickly.

Image Source: eSmart Systems

• IoT will grow to over 20 billion connected things by 2020 (Forbes)

• There will be more than 50 billion things connected to the internet by 2020. (go.frontier.com)

• i.e. – a lot….• A distributed energy supply

system and a connected vehicles will be major generators of data

New Technologies – The Internet of Things (IoT)

• The challenge lies in integrating all this data and leveraging it for monitoring and decision making

Think

Sharing

Source: Developed with EU funding as part of the Covenant of Mayors Africa ProjectCredits: Adapted from a presentation by Adi Eyalfrom OpenUp at the City of Cape Town’s Open Data WorkshopArtwork: Dotted Line Design

Managing Complexity – Integrate the Needs of the Data Cycle into Institutional Design and Functions

Think Budget,

Process & Team

Think

Repurposing

Think Quality

(Validation, Metadata)

Key Message: Data is a culture and therefore not somebody else’s problem

Thank You

Slides for Questions

How can we leverage energy audits for data going forward?1. Relationship with ESCOs2. Work with ESCOS and training/certification institutions to develop a standardised

electronic data model for energy audits and automatic (anonymised) integration into database.

3. When we train people teach them to be data aware think about the data lifecycle4. This should look ahead to smart meter data consolidation by back end systems

General measures:➢Including a data plan as requirement in tenders wherever useful data may be generated➢Actually measuring instead of complaining about sparse data➢Metadata, metadata, metadata➢Establishing standards and protocols➢Relational databases instead of flat tables➢Open data➢An evolving culture of data as a public good

What can we do to have better Data?

Products – Tools and Integration with Tools

• Economic Areas Management Programme (‘ECAMP’)

• Business Data portal to drive evidence based investment in the city rather tham “Follow my leader” type investments

• Great achievement but could probably be made easier to use and interpret (worked examples).

• Potentially rooftop solar potential could be included.

• Also CBA Tools – SSEG payback, Cost of EV with different tariff options

New Technologies – 3rd Party Satellite/Drone Image Processing