Making Sense of the Jewish Vote

Making Sense of the Jewish Vote

FigureGBA Strategies – The Jewish Vote

Historical Perspective:Jewish Vote in Presidential Elections

• Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972

• Average Democratic vote share: 70 percent

Year % of Jewish Vote

Democrat Republican Independent1972 65 351976 71 27 21980 45 39 141984 67 311988 64 351992 80 11 91996 78 16 32000 79 19 12004 74 252008 74 26

2

Source: Exit poll data


2010 Mid-Term Election Results

% Democrat / % RepublicanJewish 66 / 31 Unmarried women 61 / 38

Hispanics 60 / 38

Voters under 30 years-old 55 / 42 Catholics 44 / 54

Protestants 38 / 59

White Evangelicals 19 / 77

Other (religion) 74 / 24

None (religion) 68 / 30

Source: 2010 exit polls, Democracy Corps election night poll , J Street election night poll

3


Impact of the Jewish Vote

Jewish Population %

2008 Vote Results(Obama/McCain)

New Jersey 7 57 / 42

Florida 4 51 / 48

Pennsylvania 4 55 / 44

New York 3 63 / 36

Nevada 3 55 / 43

Ohio 2 52 / 47

4

Source: 2008 exit polls


Impact of the Jewish Vote:Florida Case Study

5

2008 Florida Election Results

Non-Jewish Voters(96% of FL voters)

Jewish Voters(4% of FL voters)

Total Vote Results

Obama 50 74 51McCain 49 26 48

How Jewish Vote Could Change Florida Result

Non-Jewish Voters(96% of FL voters)

Jewish Voters(4% of FL voters) “Result”

Obama 50 25 49Republican 49 74 50

Source: 2008 exit polls show Jews were 4 percent of FL vote; there was no Jewish result reported in FL , 74-26 result cited here is the national Jewish result in the 2008 exit polls

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Understanding Recent Data and Trends:Jewish Party Identification

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

6672

6663 65

2420

2631 29

% Democratic % Republican

6

Source: Pew Research Center


2012 Vote – Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney

Obama Romney Undecided0

20

40

60

80

100

64

29

7

June 2012

7

Obama Romney Undecided0

20

40

60

80

100

68

25

7

July 2012

+34 +43

Source: Gallup


What Drives the Jewish Vote:Shared Values

Gallup Poll: Ideology by Religion January 2010

% Liberal / % ConservativeJews 43 / 20Catholics 19 / 39Protestants/other Christians 16 / 46No religion/atheist/agnostic 39 / 19

Gallup Poll: American Jews Oppose WarFebruary 2007

% War a mistake / % War not a mistakeAll Americans 52 / 44Jews 77 / 21Catholics 53 / 46Protestants 48 / 49Mormons 27 / 72No religion 66 / 33

8


What Drives the Jewish Vote:Shared Values on Social / Economic Issues Driving the Debate

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Public Religion Research Institute PollMarch 2012

% of Jews who…

Believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases 93

Support gay and lesbian couples to marry legally 81

Support increasing the tax rate on Americans earning more than $1 million a year 81

Believe economic system in this country unfairly favors the wealthy 73

Believe government should do more to reduce the gap between the rich and poor 64


What Drives the Jewish Vote:Intense Jewish Opposition toward Republicans

We would like you to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a very warm, favorable feeling; zero meaning a very cold, unfavorable feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold

Bill Clin-ton

Barack Obama

Democratic Party

Mitt Romney

George W. Bush

Republican Party

Tea Party Movement

Glenn Beck

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8076

61 59

2923 21

12 10

22

37 38

6774 76 74

66

Favorable UnfavorableSource: PRRI March 2012 poll ; Tea Party and Beck Results from J Street National Survey of American Jews, July 2011

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What Drives the Jewish Vote:Vote Priorities

Below is a list of issues facing our country today. Please mark which two of these issues are the most important for you in deciding your vote for Congress in November.

Top 2 IssuesThe economy 62Health care 31The deficit and govt spending 18Social Security and Medicare 16Taxes 14Terrorism and national security 13Education 12Israel 7The environment 7Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan 6Illegal immigration 6Energy 4

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Source: J Street National Election Night Survey of American Jews November 2010


Broad Support for Active U.S. Involvement in the Arab-Israeli Conflict

Support Oppose0

20

40

60

80

100

31

83

4

17

Strongly Somewhat Strongly Somewhat

Do you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict?

12

Source: J Street National Survey of American Jews July 2011


Support Oppose0

20

40

60

80

100

31

83

4

17

Strongly Somewhat Strongly Somewhat

Support Oppose0

20

40

60

80

100

25

67

7

33

With Both the Israelis and the Arabs

Support Oppose0

20

40

60

80

100

15

44

15

56

With Israel

Public Disagreement Supported; Singling Out Israel Causes Major Decline

Would you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict if it meant the United States publicly stating its disagreements…

13

+34 -12


2010 IL9 Case Study:Criticism of Schakowsky Largely Unknown

34

60

0

20

40

60

80

Yes No

Have you read or heard about any criticism of Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky's positions on Israel?

Source: J Street Survey of Registered Jewish Voters in IL9, October 2010


2010 IL9 Case Study:Those who Hear Criticism Move Toward Schakowsky

21

21

14

4036

0

10

20

30

40

50

Somewhat more likely Schakowsky Much more likely SchakowskySomewhat more likely Pollak Much more likely PollakNo difference

(If they have heard criticism of Rep. Schakowsky’s positions on Israel) Did this criticism make you more likely to support Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky,

more likely to support her opponent Joel Pollak or make no difference?



Criticism Moves Small Numbers: Republicans Toward Pollak,Democrats and Independents Toward Schakowsky

15

3

74

137

75

3

21

71

0

20

40

60

80

Much more likelySchakowsky

Much more likelyPollak

Nodifference/Haven't

heard

Democrats Independents Republicans

(If they have heard criticism of Rep. Schakowsky’s positions on Israel) Did this criticism make you more likely to support Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky,

more likely to support her opponent Joel Pollak or make no difference?



Donors Contributed to Obama Over McCain 4-to-1

Did Not Contribute Contributed to Obama's Campaign

Contributed to McCain's Campaign

0

20

40

60

80 81

16

4

In the 2008 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of John McCain?

17

Source: J Street National Survey of American Jews July 2011


High and Comparable Level of Return Donors for Obama and Republicans

Definitely/Probably/Already Have Contributed to Obama's Campaign

Definitely/Probably/Already Have Contributed to a Republican's Campaign

0

20

40

60

80

100

82 80

Thinking about the 2012 Presidential election, will you make a financial contribution to… Barack Obama's campaign? (Among those who contributed to Obama’s campaign)a Republican candidate's campaign? (Among those who contributed to McCain’s campaign)

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Making Sense of the Jewish Vote