Making it Through High School: A Life Table

Analysis Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej, Charles

HirschmanUniversity of Washington

and Joseph Willhoft,

OSPI, State of WashingtonUW-BHS Project Workshop

October 19, 2007

National estimates from the Census Bureau

Cohorts from the early-1960s

2,387

3,006

2,316

1,733

1,452

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

8th Grade

9th Grade

10thGrade

11thGrade

12thGrade

Av

era

ge

Gra

de

Siz

eFigure 2. Students enrolled, by Grade Level: Averages

for Academic Years from 1997-98 to 2004-05.

Research Questions

What is the high school completion rate?

If exiting is a problem, when are students leaving school?

What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?

Administrative School Records Enrolled students: (courses & grades) Typically tabulated in aggregate data

Collaborative with school district research office Possible to match students across years

Unique student ID and birthday Major limitation

Can not distinguish dropouts and out of district transfers Defined universe

First time 9th graders in school district Track for 6 years and measure “net exits” 4 cohorts (entered 9th grade in 96, 97, 98, & 99)

Research Questions—Part OneResearch Questions—Part One

What is the high school completion rate?

When are students most likely to drop out of school?

What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?

Initial Cohort :1,000 studentsenrolled in 9th

on-track

not enrolled

on-track

retained

not enrolled

on-track

retained

not enrolled

on-track

retained

not enrolled

457on-time

Graduates

109Late/Possible

Graduatesb

The Process of School Progression and Attrition

434Net Exits

Drop Outs/Transfersaa

GRADUATION STATUSEND OF 2ND YR END OF 3RD YR END OF 4TH YREND OF 1ST YR

a) Net Exits include students that left high school with too few credits (does include some transfers).

b) Students who graduate late, are still enrolled after 6 years, or exited with sufficient credits to graduate.

Initial Cohort :1,000 studentsenrolled in 9th

189 not enrolled

The Process of School Progression and Attrition For an Entering Cohort of 1,000 Ninth Graders: Averages from 4

9th Grade Cohorts (1996 to 99) .

END OF 2ND YREND OF 1ST YR

140 retained

671 on-track

70 not enrolled

930 on-track

.07

.93 .72

.14

.14

.84

.14

.02

Initial Cohort:1,000 studentsenrolled in 9th

930 on-track

.93

70 not enrolled

671 on-track

.07

.72

140retained

189not enrolled

.14

.14

534on-track

303not enrolled

.77

.54

.11

.35.12

.11

493on-track

.86

100 retained

407not enrolled

457on-time

Graduates

.92

.40

109Late/Possible

Graduatesb

.09

.05

.41

.19.07

.64

.02

The Process of School Progression and Attrition For an Entering Cohort of 1,000 Ninth Graders: Averages from 4

9th Grade Cohorts (1996 to 99).

.84 .92 .96434

Net ExitsDrop Outs/Transfersaa

.98

.14

.02

.07

.01

.04

.01

GRADUATION STATUSEND OF 2ND YR END OF 3RD YR END OF 4TH YREND OF 1ST YR

a) Net Exits include students that left high school with too few credits (does include some transfers).

b) Students who graduate late, are still enrolled after 6 years, or exited with sufficient credits to graduate.

.01

.34

.02

163retained

Who are the ‘exiters’? Two types:

Dropouts Out of district out-transfers

Unable to differentiate at individual level Use multiple aggregate level indirect estimation

techniques We estimate ~3/5th of the ‘exiters’ either:

1) dropout or 2) transfer and eventually dropout.

For 4 Cohorts of 9For 4 Cohorts of 9thth graders (1996-98), Percentage of graders (1996-98), Percentage of Students that Graduated at end of 4 years (N=6,553)Students that Graduated at end of 4 years (N=6,553)

46%

23%

31%

Graduate in 4 Years (non-transfer)

Potential Graduates(late/out-transfer)

Potential Dropouts

Per

cen

t o

f C

oh

ort

Non-Graduates: 31%Graduates: ~69%

16% Dropout

16% Transfer-Dropout

Research Questions—Part Two

What is the high school completion rate?

If drop-out is a problem, when are students leaving school?

What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?

Percent Distribution of the Dependent VariablesPercent Distribution of the Dependent Variables

40%46% 49% 51%

Continously on-time on-track 4year graduates

Graduated in 4years-confirmed

Graduated in 5years or less-

confirmed

Graduated in 6years or less-

confirmed

Per

cen

t o

f C

oh

ort

Independent Variables Background: “Risk Factors”Background: “Risk Factors”

Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity GenderGender Neighborhoods (38 primary school areas)Neighborhoods (38 primary school areas) Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level)Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level) Transferred into district for 9Transferred into district for 9 thth grade grade

Educational Experiences:Educational Experiences: Over-age (indicator of prior retention)Over-age (indicator of prior retention) 99thth grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular First semester 9First semester 9thth grade GPA grade GPA

Four Year High School Graduation by9th Grade 1st Semester GPA

5

26

54

73

10

GPA LT 1 GPA 1 - 1.99 GPA 2 - 2.99 GPA 3 - 4 Took only P/Fclasses

21% 30% 32% 2%16%a

a Percent of Overall Population

9th Grade Failure Strongest predictor of high school completion

9th grade failure has an effect net of GPA in 8th

35% of all student fail at least one class during their 1st semester of high school 37% of all students have a GPA lt 2.0

High levels of failure are pervasive Not limited to select sub-populations

Failure occurs across all class types (i.e. not limited to ‘hard’ classes)

Multivariate Analysis Results

Background and Educational Factors operate in fashion consistent with prior research e.g. Poverty, Bad Neighborhoods, and Transferring

increase risk of not completing high school Most risk factors, but not all are mediated by school

experiences, especially freshman marks E.g. Hispanics have net disadvantage E.g. SES “explains” most of African American disadvantage

Early failure (9th grade) is key predictor, mostly independent of risk factors

Heuristic Model of High School Completion

Background Risk Factors-Demographic -Family of Origin SES-Transferring Schools 9th Grade

GPA/ Experience

Prior Educational Experiences-Prior Retention-Course Tracking-8th Grade GPA

High School Graduation

Concluding Thoughts ~7 of 10 of students graduate from HS in 4 yrs

46% graduate from this district (confirmed) Another ~23% transfer and graduate (estimate)

High school attrition is a process Begins before entering school

families, neighborhoods, & poverty

In the first few years many students fall behind and, subsequently, exit school.

Some dropout—others transfer, then dropout

Transition to High School (9th Grade) is a major challenge Placement and 9th Grade GPA are key factors

Thank you!

Paper available upon request:

Contact Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej

nickpc@u.washington.edu

Or visit our project website:

http://depts.washington.edu/uwbhs/

On-time high school graduation. On-time high school graduation.

Delayed Graduation: 5 or 6 yearsDelayed Graduation: 5 or 6 years

Still Enrolled (lStill Enrolled (l0 0 – life table survival)– life table survival) 1, 2, 3, or 4 years after entering 91, 2, 3, or 4 years after entering 9thth grade grade

Possible Dependent Variables of High Possible Dependent Variables of High School GraduationSchool Graduation

How many student graduate?

~46% of incoming 9~46% of incoming 9thth graders graduate from graders graduate from same district in 4 years.same district in 4 years.

Estimates of out-transfers graduation rates Estimates of out-transfers graduation rates increases the 4 year graduation rate to ~69%increases the 4 year graduation rate to ~69%

Most of the exiting occurs within first 2 yearsMost of the exiting occurs within first 2 years Students tend to fall behind and then exit. Students tend to fall behind and then exit.

It is a process—not an eventIt is a process—not an event

Four Year High School Graduation by GenderFour Year High School Graduation by Gender

4250

Male Female

52%a 49%

a Percent of Overall Population

Four Year High School Graduation byFour Year High School Graduation by Family Income Family Income

51

38

Above 185% Poverty Level Below 185% Poverty Level

58%a 42%

a Percent of Overall Population

4841

53

31 30

White AfricanAmerican

Asian Hispanic Nat Amer/Pac Isl

Four Year High School Graduation by Four Year High School Graduation by Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity

58%a

a Percent of Overall Population

20% 15% 5% 2%

Four Year High School Graduation By Four Year High School Graduation By Previous Grade RetentionPrevious Grade Retention

37

49

Never Retained Retained

76%a 24%

a Percent of Overall Population

Four Year High School Graduation By Transferred into District for 9th Grade

27

49

Did Not Transfer Transferred

85%a 15%

a Percent of Overall Population

4841

53

31 30

White AfricanAmerican

Asian Hispanic Nat Amer/Pac Isl

Four Year High School Graduation by Four Year High School Graduation by Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity

58%a

a Percent of Overall Population

20% 15% 5% 2%

Four Year High School Graduation By Four Year High School Graduation By Previous Grade RetentionPrevious Grade Retention

37

49

Never Retained Retained

76%a 24%

a Percent of Overall Population

Four Year High School Graduation by Four Year High School Graduation by 99thth Grade English Class Grade English Class

78

2920

4441

Traditional Adv/ CollegeBound

Special Ed:PT

Special Ed:FT

ESL

18% 8% 3% 3%69%a

a Percent of Overall Population