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Making Estimation Easier and Better
Keith RichardsKRC
www.agilekrc.com
Presentation Structure• Introductions
• The basics
• Estimating early on
• A few well known techniques
• Relativity
• Getting good
• Further information / Next steps
• Close and questions.
Introductions
• KRC is a pioneering training and consultancy company
• Specialising in all things Agile
• Focusing on improving Agile capability at scale
• Keith Richards
o 15 years experience in agile methods
o Closely analysed many of today’s estimation
techniques
o Author of ‘Agile Project Management’ (TSO)
o Voted ‘Most Valuable Agile Player’ UK Agile Awards
2011.
Estimation – two facts that we all need to know
Fact One: Estimation is difficult!
Fact Two: Estimation is difficult because
what you are doing is difficult!
What is an estimate?
• An educated guess, a prediction
• Surprisingly contains only a few variables
size
complexity
skill level
quality
...but not much more really.
When to estimate?
• First things first – is this a project or a product
environment?
• Projects evolve and have high levels of uncertainty
early on
• Products evolve with low levels of uncertainty
throughout.
The Shard
how high do you think it is in metres?
Early project estimation
• Instinct is good
• ...but back it up
• Base it on evidence
• Use a simple algorithm
• Document the assumptions.
Honest estimates or hostage culture?
• How does your organisation REALLY go about
estimation?
• Is it a game? e.g. ‘Think of a number and double it!’
• If so, this is very damaging
• Use a confidence factor and get everyone signed up to
it
use a range
try the 50% / 90% rule
justify things and don’t get emotional.
How long does it take to do a jigsaw?
Estimates in seconds:
453660204038904890
Some techniques – some good, some not so good!
• Function Points / Use Case Points
• Wideband Delphi
• (Story) Points, T-shirt sizing and Planning Poker
• Top-down, Bottom-up
• Team estimation (‘wisdom of crowds’)
• Estimation ‘en masse’.
Relativity – a big help
• People are good at this
• Do this before you start thinking about how long or how
much
• T-shirt sizing is good but go carefully: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16
• Fibonacci – very popular but it’s not quite right!
• ...and hardly anyone realises this!
• Could this be costing billions?
Fibonacci – useful but flawed
1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 2330
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Fibonacci Percentage Change
61.8The
Golden Ratio!
Get nerdy; be an Anorak!
• Go for it – you will look cool eventually
• Build your algorithm, keep metrics, save the
assumptions
• Have your own little book of wisdom
• Calibrate and Validate
• Be ‘empirical’
Try and build lifecycle ratios
Try timestamping
– very simple, very effective.
In summary
Don’t forget an estimate is only an estimate.
The better you are at it, the better you will be at
hitting deadlines and protecting quality.
Further Information / Next Steps• To download your copy of the ‘krcbonacci’ guidelines please visit:
http://agilekrc.com then click on “resources” then “downloads”
• To download a course information sheet on our one day training
course in Estimation please visit:
• http://agilekrc.com then click on “services” then “in-house training”
• KRC offers accredited public courses, in-house training and
coaching
• Would you like an agile assessment to map out your agile journey?
