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Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, 75-83 (1986)
Mainframe Specific Purpose Forecasting Software: A Survey
ESSAM MAHMOUD" University of Michigan, U.S.A.
GlLLlAN RICE University of Michigan, U.S.A.
VICTOR E. McGEE Dartmouth College, U.S.A.
CHRIS BEAUMONT London Business School, U. K.
* Address for correspondence: Essam Mahmoud, School of Management, University of Michigan, Flint, Michigan 48502-2186, U.S.A. 0277-6693/86/0 I007549$05.00 Received December f 985 0 1986 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
AU
TO
MO
D
Gw
ilym
Jen
kins
& P
artn
ers
Ltd.
, Pa
rkfie
ld, G
reav
es R
d.,
Lanc
aste
r, LA
I 4T
Z,
U.K
. L
anca
ster
6 18
3 I
(ST
D 0
524)
3 3 !L
the
%
appl
icat
ion.
2 E
r:
Pack
age
Feat
ures
Nam
e Su
pplie
r Fu
nctio
ns
Mod
e La
ngua
ge
Har
dwar
e M
emor
y re
quire
d
Dep
ende
nt o
n
rn
B34S
CIF
S
Dr.
Hou
ston
H. S
toke
s,
Dep
artm
ent o
f Ec
onom
ics,
U
nive
rsity
of
Illin
ois,
B
ox 4
348,
C
hica
go, I
llino
is 6
0680
, U
.S.A
. (3
12) 9
9626
84
Kes
har
P. V
ishw
akar
ma,
Sc
hool
of
Econ
omic
s,
La T
robe
Uni
vers
ity,
Bun
door
a, V
icto
ria,
Aus
tralia
308
3.
478-
3 I2
2 (M
elbo
urne
, A
ustra
lia)
CO
MPO
SIT
E
How
ard Keen, J
r.,
PRE
DIC
TIO
N O
F
Man
ager
, N
EW C
AR
SA
LE
S Ec
onom
ic A
naly
sis,
C
onso
lidat
ed R
ail
Cor
pora
tion,
IS
34 S
ix P
enn
Ctr
. Pla
za,
Phila
delp
hia,
PA
191
04,
U.S
.A.
(21 5
) 977
4222
DR
P-8
Am
eric
an S
oftw
are,
44
3 E.
Pac
es F
erry
Rd.
, A
tlant
a, G
eorg
ia 3
0305
, U
.S.A
. (4
04) 2
6143
81
Incl
udes
Box
-Jen
kins
app
roac
h to
fo
reca
stin
g pr
oble
ms
invo
lvin
g la
rge
num
bers
of
time
serie
s. F
eatu
res
mod
el
adap
tatio
n, f
orec
astin
g an
d au
tom
atic
m
onito
ring
, and
rec
onci
liatio
n of
fo
reca
sts
prod
uced
at d
iffer
ent l
evel
s in
th
e fo
reca
stin
g hi
erar
chy.
Incl
udes
ord
inar
y le
ast s
quar
es, w
eigh
ted
leas
t sq
uare
s an
alys
is, B
ayes
ian
anal
ysis
, err
or c
ompo
nent
ana
lysi
s;
limite
d de
pend
ent
varia
ble
anal
ysis
, e.g
. PR
OB
IT, L
OG
IT, t
ime
serie
s tr
ansf
er
func
tion
and
inte
rven
tion
anal
ysis
and
ve
ctor
aut
oreg
ress
ive
and
mov
ing
aver
age
mod
els;
ext
ensi
ve O
LS s
peci
ficat
ion
test
s;
grap
hics
.
Ana
lysi
s an
d fo
reca
stin
g of
sin
gle
(uni
vari
ate)
dis
cret
e tim
e se
ries.
D
esig
ned
to d
etec
t th
e pr
esen
ce o
f a
cycl
ical
com
pone
nt. B
ased
on
stoc
hast
ic
cont
rol
theo
ry. E
mpl
oys
linea
r st
ate
spac
e (K
alm
an)
filte
ring
mod
els
whi
ch in
clud
e an
au
tore
gres
sive
com
pone
nt.
fore
cast
err
ors
for
rail
frei
ght t
raff
ic.
Con
sist
s of
a c
ombi
natio
n of
for
ecas
ts
from
Cha
se E
cono
met
rics
and
a un
ivar
iate
B
ox- J
enki
ns m
odel
.
Com
posi
te p
redi
ctor
for
red
uctio
n of
Inte
ract
ive
or
FOR
TR
AN
A
ny in
stal
latio
n ca
pabl
e of
su
ppor
ting
AN
SI
stan
dard
FO
RT
RA
N I
V.
batc
h
Bat
ch
Prim
arily
IB
M 3
60, 3
70; D
EC
FO
RT
RA
N
20 v
ersi
on a
t U
nive
rsity
of
Chi
cago
Dis
trib
utio
n re
sour
ce p
lann
ing
conv
erts
In
tera
ctiv
e or
N
/A
inde
pend
ent
time-
phas
ed s
ales
fore
cast
s ba
tch
at e
ach
ship
men
t lo
catio
n in
to d
epen
dent
, tim
e-ph
ased
req
uire
men
ts.
Incl
udes
sa
les
fore
cast
ing,
inv
ento
ry c
ontr
olle
r, an
d di
stri
butio
n re
quire
men
ts p
lann
ing.
IBM
, Bur
roug
hs,
N/A
H
ewle
tt-Pa
ckar
d,
Hon
eyw
ell,
Uni
vac,
Wan
g,
and
othe
rs.
2
?
4
EC
ON
OM
ET
RIC
SO
FTW
AR
E
PAC
KA
GE
(ESP
)
FLE
XIC
AST
FOR
SYS
GSA
(T
HE
G
EN
ER
AL
ST
OC
HA
STIC
A
NA
LY
SIS
SYST
EM
)
INT
ER
AC
TIV
E
SHO
RT
RA
NG
E
FOR
EC
AST
ING
SY
STE
M
MA
VIS
Syne
rgy,
Inc.
, 23
37 -
18th
St.,
N.W
., W
ashi
ngto
n. D
C 2
0009
, U
.S.A
. (2
02) 2
32-6
261
N/A
: See
Coo
pers
mith
(1
979)
Rud
olph
Lew
ando
wsk
i, M
arke
ting
Syst
ems
GM
BH
, Po
stfa
ch 2
3010
9,
Hun
sruc
kstr
asse
9a,
D
-430
0,
Esse
n 1
(Bre
dene
y),
Ger
man
y
Pred
ictio
n Sy
stem
s, I
nc.,
P.O
. Box
276
, M
anas
quan
, NJ
0873
6,
U.S
.A.
(201
) 223
4572
N/A
C
onta
ct M
. M. Et
schm
aier
an
d J.
A. A
bara
, a
pt.
of I
ndus
tria
l En
gine
erin
g,
Syst
ems
Man
agem
ent
Stat
istic
al a
naly
sis
of t
ime
serie
s da
ta w
ith
regr
essi
on a
naly
sis
capa
bilit
ies,
in
clud
ing
ordi
nary
leas
t squ
ares
, thr
ee
stag
e le
ast s
quar
es, r
estri
cted
and
gro
up
estim
atio
n, a
nd B
ox-J
enki
ns a
naly
sis.
Fore
cast
ing
syst
em w
ith a
n au
tom
atic
m
etho
d to
sel
ect m
odel
s an
d gi
ve
mea
ning
ful f
orec
asts
with
out h
uman
in
terv
entio
n. F
or s
hort
-to-
med
ium
term
fo
reca
sts
for
oper
atio
nal p
lann
ing.
Sale
s for
ecas
ting
syst
em b
ased
on
a m
ixed
tim
e se
ries e
xpla
nato
ry m
odel
. Sp
ecia
l ev
ents
can
be
inco
rpor
ated
into
the
syst
em
and
subs
eque
ntly
inte
grat
ed in
to th
e fo
reca
sts.
Bat
ch
N/A
N/A
On-
line
data
man
agem
ent o
f ve
ctor
tim
e se
ries;
stoc
hast
ic a
naly
sis;
plo
tting
and
re
port
ing.
Hig
h le
vel s
toch
astic
mod
ellin
g la
ngua
ge; u
nlim
ited
mod
el s
truc
ture
s in
clud
ing
stan
dard
mod
els
(e.g
. lea
st s
quar
es,
Box
-Jen
kins
aut
oreg
ress
ive)
and
sta
te s
pace
st
ruct
ures
; si
mul
atio
ns a
nd p
redi
ctio
ns.
Shor
t ran
ge p
rice
fore
cast
ing
syst
em f
or
dais
ion-
mak
ing.
Dat
a fil
ing
and
disp
lay
of in
form
atio
n in
tabu
lar
or
grap
hic
form
, for
per
sona
l an
alys
is.
Inte
ract
ive
Inte
ract
ive
Engi
neer
ing
and
Ope
ratio
ns
Res
earc
h,
Uni
vers
ity o
f Pi
ttsbu
rgh,
PA
152
60, U
.S.A
.
Rud
olf
Lew
ando
wsk
i, Sy
stem
of f
orec
astin
g in
form
atio
n, a
imed
at
N/A
M
arke
ting
Syst
ems
GM
BH
, Po
stfa
ch 2
3010
9,
Hun
sruc
kstra
sse
9a,
D-4
300,
Es
sen
1 (B
rede
ney)
, G
erm
any
cent
raliz
ing
info
rmat
ion
and
prov
idin
g m
anag
emen
t w
ith p
rinci
pal
fore
cast
s at
ea
ch le
vel o
f sa
les
by p
rodu
ct,
regi
on, e
tc.
Incl
udes
sel
ectiv
e pr
oduc
t m
anag
emen
t of
prod
ucts
for
whi
ch d
evel
opm
ents
in t
he
mar
ket p
lace
indi
cate
sig
nific
ant c
hang
es.
FOR
TR
AN
IB
M: 3
6013
70.
256K
D
EC
: Sys
tem
10/
20
FOR
TR
AN
IV
N
/A
NIA
N jA
IB
M V
S or
VM
N
/A
FOR
TR
AN
IV
NIA
NIA
N
IA
WA
NIA
-4
-4
4
Pack
age
Feat
ures
W
Nam
e Su
pplie
r Fu
nctio
ns
Mod
e La
ngua
ge
Har
dwar
e M
emor
y re
quire
d
MO
SAIC
MU
LT
IPL
E
RE
GR
ESS
ION
MU
LT
IPL
E
RE
GR
ESS
ION
MU
LT
IST
OC
AN
D
MU
LT
ITR
AN
Info
rmet
rica
Ltd
., P.
O. B
ox 8
28,
Stat
ion
B,
Otta
wa,
Ont
ario
, Can
ada,
K
IP 5
P9.
(613
) 238
4831
Ecos
oft,
P.O
. Box
686
02,
Indi
anap
olis
, IN
462
68,
U.S
.A.
(317
) 25
3482
8
Oliv
etti
Cor
pora
tion,
21
9 E.
42n
d St
reet
, N
ew Y
ork,
NY
100
17,
U.S
.A.
(212
) 599
-787
1
Gw
ilym
Jen
kins
& P
artn
ers
Park
field
, Gre
aves
Rd.
, La
ncas
ter,
LA1
4TZ,
U
.K.
Lanc
aste
r 6 I
83 I
(ST
D 0
524)
Ltd
.,
A f
orec
astin
g sy
stem
: inc
lude
s da
ta
tran
sfor
mat
ions
, dat
a m
anag
emen
t, pl
ottin
g, r
egre
ssio
n an
alys
is, X
I1 s
easo
nal
adju
stm
ent,
patte
rn-f
ittin
g an
d B
ox-
Jenk
ins
(AR
IMA
) mod
ellin
g.
Stat
istic
al a
naly
sis
com
pris
ing
mul
tiple
re
gres
sion
for
up t
o 10
diff
eren
t va
riabl
es a
nd s
uppo
rt s
tatis
tics
incl
udin
g m
ean,
sta
ndar
d de
viat
ion,
stan
dard
err
or,
and
F-ra
tio. I
t al
so p
rovi
des
resi
dual
s,
Dur
bin-
Wat
son
stat
istic
and
AN
OV
A
tabl
e.
Mul
tiple
line
ar r
egre
ssio
n, c
ompa
riso
n of
se
vera
l sim
ple
linea
r re
gres
sion
s,
poly
nom
ial
regr
essi
on, a
nd p
artia
l co
rrel
atio
n co
effic
ient
s.
Sim
ulta
neou
s ana
lysi
s an
d fo
reca
stin
g of
a
num
ber
of d
epen
dent
tim
e se
ries
(Box
- Je
nkin
s). M
UL
TIT
RA
N a
lso
allo
ws
the
effe
ct o
f in
depe
nden
t le
adin
g in
dica
tor
serie
s to
be e
xam
ined
.
Inte
ract
ive
or
N/A
ba
tch
Bat
ch
Bat
ch
Bat
ch
PAC
K S
YST
EM
Aut
omat
ic F
orec
astin
g C
ompr
ehen
sive
sta
tistic
al s
yste
m d
evel
oped
In
tera
ctiv
e A
ND
AU
TO
BJ/
Sy
stem
s, In
c.,
for
deriv
ing
from
tim
e se
ries d
ata,
A
UTO
BO
X
P.O
. Box
563
, m
odel
s fo
r pr
edic
tion,
sim
ulat
ion
and
cont
rol o
f pr
obab
ilist
ic o
r ra
ndom
pr
oces
s. I
nclu
des
Box
-Jen
kins
tim
e-se
ries,
un
ivar
iate
or
mul
tiple
inpu
t ana
lysi
s,
inte
rven
tion
mod
ellin
g, c
ompl
ete
mod
el
sim
ulat
ion,
and
bot
h au
tom
atic
mod
el
iden
tific
atio
n pl
us a
utom
atic
elim
inat
ion
of u
nnec
essa
ry v
aria
bles
. Opt
ions
in
clud
e pl
ottin
g, a
ggre
gatio
n, p
relim
inar
y es
timat
es r
outin
e, a
nd u
niva
riate
con
vers
ion.
Hat
boro
, Pe
nnsy
lvan
ia,
1904
0, U
.S.A
. (2
15) 6
7546
52
BA
SIC
IBM
Mai
nfra
mes
N
/A
DE
C V
AX
Nor
th S
tar:
all
8K
mod
els
Mac
hine
lan
guag
e O
livet
ti: P
652
N
iA
FOR
TR
AN
- A
ny i
nsta
llatio
n D
epen
dent
A
NSI
, 19
66 a
nd
capa
ble
of
on t
he
1977
sta
ndar
ds
supp
ortin
g A
NSI
ap
plic
atio
n st
anda
rd
FOR
TR
AN
IV
- 19
66 a
nd 1
977.
IB
M, I
CL
, DE
C,
Uni
vac,
H
oney
wel
l, B
urro
ughs
, and
Pr
ime.
FOR
TR
AN
IV
B
urro
ughs
837
00,
N!A
B3800; C
DC
6000
se
ries.
Cyb
er
serie
s; D
EC
sy
stem
10,
20,
D
EC
PD
PII,
Hon
eyw
ell
69/6
6/X
X, 6
000,
60
0; IB
M 3
60, 3
70;
Uni
vac
Serie
s 11
08.
2
F 2
?
PAR
ZE
N’S
TIM
E
RE
GR
ESS
ION
W
ang
Lab
orat
orie
s In
c.,
AN
AL
YSI
S O
ne I
ndus
tria
l A
venu
e,
N/A
: see
Par
zen
(197
6)
SER
IES
PRO
GR
AM
Low
ell,
MA
018
51, U
.S.A
. (6
17) 8
51
41
1 I
RE
SUL
T
Num
etri
x D
ecis
ion
Scie
nces
In
c.,
3 C
hurc
h St
reet
, 5t
h Fl
oor,
The
sys
tem
is a
lso
supp
orte
d by
fift
een
test
dat
a se
ts. I
mpr
ovem
ent o
f th
e pa
ckag
e IS
also
ava
ilabl
e.
Parz
en’s
met
hod
for
time
serie
s mod
ellin
g.
N/A
Sim
ple
linea
r re
gres
sion
ana
lysi
s, g
eom
etric
le
ast s
quar
es, e
xpon
entia
l lea
st s
quar
es,
curv
e fit
ting
and
poly
nom
ial
regr
essi
on
anal
ysis
.
A c
ompu
ter-
base
d de
cisi
on s
uppo
rt to
ol
desi
gned
to a
id i
n th
e pl
anni
ng a
nd
sche
dulin
g of
lim
ited
reso
urce
s ov
er ti
me.
H
andl
es bo
th d
iscr
ete
even
ts a
nd c
ontin
uous
Bat
ch
Inte
ract
ive
Tor
onto
, Ont
ario
, Can
ada
M5E
1M
2.
line
sche
dulin
g.
(416
) 868
4013
N/A
: see
Del
vin
ef a
/., (
1981
)
proc
ess.
Int
erac
tive
Can
t t
char
t for
on-
SAB
L Se
t of
oroc
edur
es fo
r se
ason
al a
nd c
alen
dar
SALE
S A
mer
ican
Sof
twar
e,
FOR
EC
AST
ING
44
3 E.
Pac
es F
erry
Rd.
, A
tlant
a, G
eorg
ia 3
0305
, U
.S.A
. (4
04) 2
6143
81
SAR
AS
SHA
ZA
M
Kes
har P
. Vis
hwak
arm
a,
Scho
ol o
f Ec
onom
ics,
La
Tro
be U
nive
rsity
, B
undo
ora,
Vic
toria
, A
ustra
lia 3
083.
47
8-31
22
(Mel
bour
ne, A
ustr
alia
)
Dr.
Ken
neth
J. W
hite
, D
epar
tmen
t of
Eco
nom
ics,
R
ice
Uni
vers
ity,
Hou
ston
, TX
770
01,
US
A.
adju
stm
ent.
Gra
phic
s.
Incl
udes
thr
ee s
tand
ard
syst
ems-
basi
c fo
reca
stin
g, i
tem
for
ecas
ting
and
prod
uct g
roup
& it
em f
orec
astin
g (a
m
ultip
le le
vel s
yste
m).
Feat
ures
incl
ude
fore
cast
ing
with
irr
egul
ar d
eman
d an
d a
grap
hica
l pl
otte
r.
(uni
vari
ate)
dis
cret
e tim
e se
ries
with
st
ate
spac
e m
odel
s an
d st
ocha
stic
cont
rol
theo
ry.
Incl
udes
a v
arie
ty o
f al
tern
ate
stat
e sp
ace
and
expo
nent
ial s
moo
thin
g m
odel
s. D
oubl
e pr
ecis
ion
is us
ed f
or
real
var
iabl
es.
Incl
udes
ord
inar
y le
ast s
quar
es, t
wo-
stag
e
Ana
lysi
s an
d fo
reca
stin
g of
sin
gle
leas
t squ
ares
, see
min
gly
unre
late
d re
gres
sion
s an
d in
tera
ctiv
e es
timat
ion
of
seem
ingl
y un
rela
ted
regr
essi
ons,
thre
e-
stag
e le
ast s
quar
es, m
odel
s w
ith f
irst a
nd
seco
nd o
rder
aut
ocor
rela
ted
dist
urba
nce,
est
imat
ion
of B
ox-C
ox t
ype
non-
linea
r fun
ctio
nal f
orm
s, f
orec
astin
g an
d pl
ottin
g.
N/A
Inte
ract
ive
Inte
ract
ive
NiA
N/A
N/A
Wan
g: 2
200
N/A
KK
IBM
, VA
X, h
ouse
20
0K
FOR
TR
AN
IV
co
mpu
ters
, plu
s tim
e-sh
arin
g se
rvic
e.
W/A
N
IA
IBM
, Bur
roug
hs.
N/A
H
ewle
tt-Pa
ckar
d,
Hon
eyw
ell,
Uni
vac,
Wan
g,
and
othe
rs.
FOR
TR
AN
IV
IB
M, V
AX
, D
EC
10,
20
200K
Bat
ch/in
tera
ctiv
e FO
RT
RA
N I
V
IBM
370
; N
/A
Hon
eyw
ell;
CD
C
b
F s f2 (D P g.
0
Pack
age
Feat
ures
Nam
e Su
pplie
r Fu
nctio
ns
Mod
e La
ngua
ge
Har
dwar
e M
emor
y re
quire
d
SIB
YL
-RU
NN
ER
A
pplie
d D
ecis
ion
Syst
ems,
33
Hay
den
Ave
nue,
Le
ton,
MA
021
73,
U.S
.A.
(617
) 861
-758
0
SIFT
STA
TE
SPA
CE
STA
TIS
TIC
S V
OL
UM
E 1
STA
TIS
TIC
S V
OL
UM
E 3
STA
TIS
TIC
S V
OL
UM
E 4
Uni
leve
r R
esea
rch:
(se
e G
regg
and
Hill
(19
78)
Stat
e Sp
ace
Syst
ems,
Inc
., Ir
vine
, CA
, U.S
.A.
(714
) 552
4683
Tek
tron
ix In
c.,
P.O
. Box
500
, B
eave
rton,
OR
970
70,
U.S
.A.
(503
) 682
-341
1
Tek
tron
ix I
nc.,
P.O
. Bo
x 50
0.
Bea
verto
n, O
R 9
7070
, U
.S.A
. (5
03) 6
82-3
41 I
Tek
tron
ix In
c.,
P.O
. Box
500
, B
eave
rton.
OR
970
70,
U.S
.A.
(503
) 68
2-34
1 I
Tim
e-se
ries a
naly
sis
and
fore
cast
ing;
co
ntai
ns 2
0 tim
e-se
ries
tech
niqu
es a
nd
prov
ides
4 e
ssen
tial f
orec
astin
g fu
nctio
ns:
scre
enin
g of
alte
rnat
ive
fore
cast
ing
tech
niqu
es a
nd id
entif
icat
ion
of
met
hodo
logi
es m
ost a
ppro
pria
te fo
r a g
iven
si
tuat
ion;
app
licat
ion
of in
divi
dual
m
etho
dolo
gies
to
a sp
ecifi
c for
ecas
ting
prob
lem
; com
pari
son
and
com
bina
tion
of
the
resu
lts o
btai
ned
from
the
appl
icat
ion
of
diff
eren
t for
ecas
ting
met
hods
; dat
a m
anag
emen
t in
clud
ing
grap
hics
.
Inte
ract
ive
An
auto
mat
ic B
ox-J
enki
ns p
rogr
am b
ased
N
/A
on a
com
bina
tion
of a
pat
tern
re
cogn
ition
pro
cedu
re to
exa
min
e th
e au
to
and
part
ial a
utoc
orre
latio
ns a
nd a
n ob
ject
ive
mod
el o
rder
test
ing
crite
rion
in
orde
r to
iden
tify
the
appr
opri
ate
AR
IMA
m
odel
.
Sing
le a
nd m
ultip
le t
ime
serie
s. C
ombi
nes
N/A
st
eps
of id
entif
icat
ion,
est
imat
ion,
m
odel
ord
er d
eter
min
atio
n an
d fo
reca
stin
g by
usi
ng a
Kal
man
filt
er
mod
el a
nd id
entif
ying
it d
irect
ly f
rom
the
da
ta, t
he c
anon
ical
cor
rela
tion
met
hod
and
the
info
rmat
ion
crite
rion
due
to A
kaik
e.
Stat
istic
al a
naly
sis
incl
udes
var
ious
In
tera
ctiv
e di
strib
utio
n pr
obab
ilitie
s. h
isto
gram
s,
two
cont
inge
ncy
test
s (R
XC
test
and
2 x
2
test
), si
mpl
e re
gres
sion
.
Mul
tiple
line
ar a
nd p
olyn
omia
l in
tera
ctiv
e re
gres
sion
ana
lysi
s te
chni
ques
. G
ener
ates
tab
ular
and
gra
phic
s ou
tput
. D
urbi
n-W
atso
n st
atis
tic.
Var
iabl
e tra
nsfo
rmat
ions
.
regr
essi
ons,
non
-lin
ear s
yste
m
solu
tions
, fun
ctio
n m
inim
izat
ion
and
linea
r reg
ress
ion.
Var
iabl
e tr
ansf
orm
atio
ns.
Gra
phic
s, in
clud
ing
data
and
fun
ctio
n pl
ots.
Inte
ract
ive
Non
-line
ar a
naly
sis
incl
udes
non
-lin
ear
Bat
ch
Var
ious
ver
sion
s of
D
EC
10,
20;
VA
X
N/A
FO
RT
RA
N, a
nd
1 I; I
BM
, 370
,430
0,
BA
SIC
30
33; C
yber
ser
ies
6000
, ser
ies
3600
; PR
IME
50
serie
s;
SIG
MA
9;
Hon
eyw
ell 6
000
serie
s; H
-P 2
000
serie
s; B
urro
ughs
67
00/7
800;
Dat
a G
ener
al
EC
LIP
SE.
NIA
N
IA
NIA
BA
SIC
BA
SIC
BA
SIC
N/A
Tekt
roni
x: 4
05 I,
16
K
4052
, 405
4
Tek
tron
ix: 4
051.
16
K
4052
, 405
4
Tek
tron
ix: 4
05 I.
16
K
4052
, 405
4
STA
TPA
K
Con
cord
ia U
nive
rsity
C
ompu
ter
Cen
tre,
1455 d
e M
aiso
nneu
ve B
lvd.
w.,
Mon
trea
l, Q
uebe
c H3C
IM8
Can
ada
TFS
IFT
N
/A:
See
Gre
gg (1980)
TR
EN
D A
NA
LY
SIS
Oliv
etti
Cor
pora
tion,
A
ND
TIM
E
500
Park
Ave
nue,
SE
RIE
S N
ew Y
ork,
NY
10022,
U.S
.A.
(212) 371-5500
TSP
TSP
IDA
TA
TR
AN
TSP
VER
SIO
N 3.5
TIM
E S
ER
IES
PRO
CE
SSO
R
UN
ISA
D &
T
RA
NSA
D
Bro
nwyn
H.
Hal
l, 204
Juni
per0
Ser
ra B
lvd.
, St
anfo
rd, C
A 94305, U
.S.A
.
Con
sist
ent S
yste
m
Ren
aiss
ance
Com
putin
g,
Inc.
, P.
O.
Box
699,
Cam
brid
ge, M
A 02139,
U.S
.A.
Con
cord
ia U
nive
rsity
, Jo
n A
. Bre
slaw
, 1455 d
e M
aiso
nneu
ve B
lvd.
W
., M
ontr
eal,
Que
bec H3G
IM8
Can
ada.
Gw
ilym
Jen
kins
& P
artn
ers
Ltd.
, Pa
rkfie
ld, G
reav
es R
d.,
Lan
cast
er, L
A1 4T2,
U.K
. L
anca
ster
6183 1
(S
TD
0524)
Incl
udes
line
plo
ts, m
ultip
le r
egre
ssio
n,
Inte
ract
ive
poly
nom
ial
regr
essi
on, s
tepw
ise
regr
essi
on, e
xpon
entia
l sm
ooth
ing
(sim
ple
and
tripl
e) a
nd s
ome
stat
istic
al te
sts
(e.g
. ana
lysi
s of
var
ianc
e, c
orre
latio
n, I
te
st).
CD
C
FOR
TR
AN
IV
60
K-IO
OK
Aut
omat
ic tr
ansf
er fu
nctio
n-no
ise
mod
ellin
g N
/A
Incl
uded
are
the
von
Neu
man
n st
atis
tic,
leas
t squ
ares
pol
ynom
ial
smoo
thin
g,
leas
t squ
ares
fit
to q
uadr
atic
and
par
abol
ic
func
tions
, fitt
ing
Gom
pert
z or
mod
ified
ex
pone
ntia
l cur
ves
and
info
rmat
ion
stat
istic
s, a
nd S
hann
on’s
for
mul
a.
leas
t squ
ares
, tw
o an
d th
ree
stag
e le
ast
squa
res,
mul
ti-eq
uatio
n le
ast s
quar
es; f
ull
info
rmat
ion
max
imum
lik
elih
ood
estim
atio
n o
f a n
on-li
near
sim
ulta
neou
s eq
uatio
n m
odel
and
sol
utio
n or
si
mul
atio
n of
the
sam
e ty
pe o
f mod
el is
av
aila
ble;
tim
e se
ries p
lotti
ng f
acili
ty
Bat
ch
Eco
nom
etri
c es
timat
ion.
Incl
udes
: ord
inar
y B
atch
Incl
udes
reg
ress
ion:
e.g
. ord
inar
y, B
ayes
ian,
po
lyno
mia
l, A
RIM
A (
Box
-Jen
kins
), au
tore
gres
sive
, lo
git,
ridge
, non
-line
ar;
resi
dual
ana
lysi
s, f
requ
ency
dom
ain
anal
ysis
, an
alys
is o
f va
rianc
e, m
odel
bu
ildin
g m
atrix
ope
ratio
ns; g
raph
ics.
A c
ompu
ter
prog
ram
for
the
econ
omet
ric
anal
ysis
of
time
serie
s dat
a. I
nclu
des
ordi
nary
leas
t squ
ares
, tw
o st
age
leas
t sq
uare
s, re
gres
sion
, max
imum
lik
elih
ood,
plo
ts a
nd m
atrix
ope
ratio
ns.
Feat
ures
sea
sona
l adj
ustm
ent o
f tim
e se
ries,
B
ox-J
enki
ns,
and
a de
com
posi
tion
proc
ess
whi
ch r
elie
s on
mod
els.
Gra
phic
al
disp
lay
faci
litie
s.
N/A
N
/A
N/A
M
achi
ne la
ngua
ge
Oliv
etti:
P 652
N/A
FOR
TR
AN
IB
M 360/370/3033;
N/A
A
mda
hl; l
tel
AS
Serie
s; U
niva
c 11
00 s
erie
s; C
DC
6500/6600/67OO;
Bur
roug
hs
6700/7700/7800;
DEC 10120; V
AX
11/70 (V3.4);
Siem
ens,
Tes
bac
etc.
, Hon
eyw
ell 66
serie
s.
Bat
ch/in
tera
ctiv
e FO
RT
RA
N I
V
Hon
eyw
ell 6180,
N/A
IB
M 370/165/0S
Inte
ract
ive
FOR
TR
AN
IV
C
DC
: Cyb
er
60K-100K
Inte
ract
ive
or
FOR
TRA
N-A
NSI
A
ny i
nsta
llatio
n U
p to
500K
capa
ble
of
stan
dard
s.
supp
ortin
g A
NSI
st
anda
rd
FOR
TR
AN
IV-
1966 o
r 1977
stan
dard
.
Bat
ch
1966 a
nd 1977
(con
tinu
ed)
%
Pack
age
Feat
ures
c, : s
Nam
e Su
pplie
r Fu
nctio
ns
Mod
e L
angu
age
Har
dwar
e M
emor
y re
quir
ed
s.
09
UN
IST
OC
&
Gw
ilym
Jen
kins
& P
artn
ers
The
ana
lysi
s of
the
beh
avio
ur o
f si
ngle
tim
e In
tera
ctiv
e o
r FO
RT
RA
N--
AN
SI
Any
ins
talla
tion
Dep
ende
nt o
n
Park
fiel
d, G
reav
es R
d.,
UN
IST
OC
is d
esig
ned
to d
eal
with
the
stan
dard
s.
supp
ortin
g A
NSI
ap
plic
atio
n.
Lan
cast
er, L
A1
4TZ
, st
anda
rd
U.K
. on
pas
t his
tory
. U
NIT
RA
N e
xten
ds th
is
FOR
TR
AN
IV-
19
66 a
nd 1
977
Lan
cast
er 6
1 831
(S
TD
052
4)
(lea
ding
indi
cato
rs) t
o he
inc
lude
d.
stan
dard
s. I
EM
, IC
L. D
EC
, U
niva
c, C
ontr
ol
Dat
a, H
oney
wel
l, B
urro
ughs
, Pri
me.
H
ewle
tt Pa
ckar
d.
TR
AN
SAD
L
td.
seri
es u
sing
Box
-Jen
kins
tec
hniq
ues.
ba
tch
1966
and
197
7 ca
pabl
e of
th
e
anal
ysis
and
fore
cast
ing
of ti
me
seri
es b
ased
to e
nabl
e th
e ef
fect
s of
oth
er ti
me
seri
es
NIA
N
IA
XSI
M
XSI
M
Cha
se E
cono
met
rics
/ A
utom
atic
sta
te s
pace
for
ecas
ting,
off
erin
g N
/A
Inte
ract
ive
Dat
a C
orpo
rati
on,
Dyn
amic
s A
ssoc
iate
s D
ivis
ion,
st
atis
tical
fun
ctio
ns, e
.g. r
atio
s,
1033
Mas
sach
uset
ts A
ve.,
Cam
brid
ge, M
A 0
2 138
, U
.S.A
. tr
ansf
er f
unct
ions
. (6
17) 4
92-7
500
anal
ytic
, gra
phic
and
rep
ortin
g ca
pabi
litie
s. U
ses
fina
ncia
l, ec
onom
ic a
nd
indu
stry
dat
abas
es. C
onta
ins
over
200
seas
onal
ity t
ax a
nd d
epre
ciat
ion,
re
gres
sion
, Box
-Jen
kins
, st
ate-
spac
e an
d
Software Reviews 83
REFERENCES
Coopersmith, L. W., ‘Automatic forecasting using “FLEXICAST” system’, in Makridakis, S. and Wheelwright, S. C. (eds.), TIMS, Studies in the Management Science 12, North-Holland, 1979, pp. 265- 278.
Delvin, S. J . , Terpenning, I . J. and Cleveland, W. S., ‘The SABL seasonal and calendar adjustment procedures’, Paper presented at the 4th International Time Series Meeting (ITMS), Spain, June, 1978.
Gregg, D. P., ‘Business forecasting: the good news and the bad’, OMEGA, 8 (1980), (3), 361-374. Gregg, D. P. and Hill, G., ‘The SIFT package; a summary of its major characteristics and their practical
Parzen, E., ‘An approach to time series modelling and forecasting illustrated by hourly-electricity demands’, implications’, Working paper, Unilever Research, Merseyside, U.K., 1978.
Technical Report, Statistical Science Department, SUNY at Buffalo, 1976.
Authors ’ biographies: Essam Mahmoud is currently Associate Professor of Quantitative Analysis and Systems at the School of Management, University of Michigan-Flint. His interests are in the areas of forecasting applications, the accuracy of forecasting methods, forecasting and decision support systems and the evaluation and selection of software in general and in particular for forecasting applications and databases for businesses. He has published several articles in the Journal of Forecasting, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, The American Statistician, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis and Management International Review.
Gillian Rice is Associate Professor of Marketing at the University of Michigan-Flint. She has research interests in computer software marketing, the availability and accuracy of databases, and the marketing of computer technology in developing countries. She has published in Journal of Forecasting, the Journal of Business Forecasting Methods and Systems, Management International and Management Decision.
Victor E. McGee is currently a professor of applied statistics a t the Amos Tuck School of Business Administration at Dartmouth College. His current teaching assignments in both the M.B.A. and executive programmes are in the areas of information systems, forecasting and statistical analysis management problems. His research interests include the application of statistical techniques to a variety of organization problems and the application of computers in information system management. His articles have appeared in such publications as the Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of the American Statistical Association and Journal of Accounting and Public Policy.
Chris Beaumont lectures on statistics, decision-modelling and forecasting at the London Business School. He has acted as consultant to a number of organizations on forecasting and computerization and is currently interested in the effects of software on the decision-making process.
Authors ’ addresses: Essam Mahmoud, School of Management, University of Michigan, Flint, Michigan 48502-2186, U.S.A. G i a n Rice, School of Management, University of Michigan, Flint, Michigan 48502-2186, U.S.A. Victor E. McGee, Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, Dartmouth College, Hanover, N H 03755, U.S.A. Chris Beaumont, London Business School, Sussex Place, Regent’s Park, London NWI 4SA, U.K.
