Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011

8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011

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Using of GIS and RS Tools in Monitoring Climate

Change Impact on the Delta Coastal Zone

Mahmoud H Ahmed, Prof.Head Marine Sciences Department, NARSS

[email protected]

Monit

oring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater

and Agriculture in the Nile Delta

December 26, 2011, CLAC
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Why Egypt has to be involved?

The impact of Climate Change in Egypt is predicted to be severe,such as increasing drought, sea level rise and more frequent andsevere storms.

* Source vulnerability looks at access to fossil fuels and renewable energy, and the potential size of employment

and income shocks following the introduction of some form of carbon tax.Impact vulnerability or proneness toclimate-related hazards and sea-level riseor. Source:Country Stake in Climate Change Negotiations,The World Bank 2007


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Objectives I

to improve understanding of how global change, especially climate

change in its interaction with other drivers (land-use change, nutrient

loading, acid deposition, toxic pollution) has changed, is changing and will

change the structure and functioning of coastal ecosystems;

to encapsulate this understanding in the form of predictive, testablemodels;

to identify key taxa, structures or processes (indicators of aquatic

ecosystem health) that clearly indicate impending or realised globalchange through their loss, occurrence or behaviour;


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Objectives II

to identify better approaches for the re-naturalisation of ecosystems andhabitats in the context of global change that will lead to the successful

fulfilment of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in achieving good

ecological status in coastal water habitats;

to provide guidance, in the form of useable models, decision support

systems and other appropriate tools to respond to the interactions

between climate and other changes, in the best interests of conservation

of the goods and services provided to the community by its coastal water

systems;

to communicate this information and understanding to users,

stakeholders and the wider public.


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Aims and project structure

how will (Egyptian) freshwater

ecosystems respond to futureclimate change directly and

indirectly, through interactions

with hydro-mophodynamics,

eutrophication, acidification and

toxic substances?

how can delta coastal watersystems thereby be better

managed, e.g. with respect to the

Egyptian CZM guidelines?


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STDCC

Beach erosion/accretion

Sediment transport

Human activities

Seasonal changes of physical processes

Drainage systems & Water table

MTDCC

Shoreline changes

Lagoon r\eclamation

Siltation

Dunes movementsCoastal protection

Coastal water quality

Building (resevoir/ harbours/ etc.)

LTDCC

Climate variability

Lagoons shirinking

Pollution

Coastal ecology

Sedimentation problem

Beaches / shoreline disappearing

Population at risk

Eutrophication change

Coastal

Cells

Day/

Month

Decade

Year

Time

Scales

Century

VLTDCC

Delta morphodynamic change

Sea Level Rise Impact

Reshaping the dunes

Land (wet/dry) at loss

Population at loss

New natural resources

(funa & flora)

STDCC Short-term Delta Coastal Change

MTDCC Medium-term Delta Coastal Change

LTDCC Long-term Delta Coastal Change

VLTDCC Very Long-term Delta Coastal Change

LagoonsInletsLow land

Space Scale

Time/Space Scale of morphological and ecological coastal changes over the Nile delta.

Nile Delta


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Research Priorities

The future of coastal water ecosystems in Egypt is highly uncertain. An intensified

research effort is required:

(i) models need improving, especially to incorporate ecological processes adequately;

(ii) high quality, long-term monitoring programmes need to be maintained and extended

both to test models and to improve understanding of the key processes that control

system responses to climate change; and

(iii) key data-sets need to be archived and made available for analysis on a Egyptian

scale to assess continually the changing state of coastal water ecosystems in time

and space.


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In addition to these generic requirements, there is more specifically a need to:

Develop adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the ecological

status and biodiversity of Egyptian coastal water ecosystems at the catchment scale

Understand the migration, remobilisation, redeposition, eco-physiological and food-chain

impact of toxic substances (especially Hg and POPs) in remote regions of Egypt (and the

regional countries) in the face of climate change

Understand and model the generation, fate and impact of nitrogen and dissolved organic

carbon in Arab countries coastal water ecosystems as a result of changes in land-

use/management, climate change and acid deposition

Assess the impact of future climate change on the ecosystem goods and services

provided by coastal water ecosystems

Understand the impact of future climate change on the supply and management of water

needed to sustain aquatic ecosystems in dry areas, especially the south Mediterranean

region.


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Using Satellite Image 2010

forLand use map of Nile delta

Coastal Governorates


13/46MODIS simulated true-color image, 6 January

0.01 0.1 1. 10. 64.0.01 0.1 1. 10. 64.

Chl [mg m-3]

SeaWiFS-derived Chl,6 January 2003


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Climate Change Impact

on Nile delta CoastalGovernorates


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Regional Model of North Africa

And Mediterranean Sea

Regional Model of Nile Basin

Weather Modeling Activities

at NARSS

NARSS Modeling-Simulation and Visualization Lab

Regional Model of Africa

NWM of the Temperature Inversion

Over Cairo

High Performance Computing Activities

Use of Satellite Data In NWP at NARSS

Modeling of Egypt
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Modeling_Of_MedSea.ppt


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NOAA AVHRR Data Post Products

Normalized Difference

Vegetation Index (NDVI)

calculated from channels 1 (VIS)

and 5 (NIR) radiance using the

following formula:

NDVI= channel 5 / channel 4


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Heat and moisture fluxes

The southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea is

essentially arid with precipitation rate of average

value of 100 mm/year.

On the other hand, highly positive radiation balance

is observed (estimated as 70,000 cal/cm

2

/year). A relatively high water temperature and high

evaporation which exceeds 1200 mm/year.

The air temperature varies from a minimum around

10o C in winter to a maximum of about 31oC insummer.


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Land surface temperature (LST)calculated from channels 4 and 5

(Thermal infra red) brightness

temperature using the following

formula:


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19.000000

19.000000

24.000000

24.000000

29.000000

29.000000

34.000000

34.000000

39.000000

39.000000 1

7.0

00000

22

.000000

22

.000000

27.0

00000

27.0

00000

32

.000000

32

.000000

37.

000000

37.

000000

42

.000000

MCSST= B1 (T11) + B2(T11-T12) +

B3(T11-T12)(Secq -1) - B4

Sea surface temperature (LST)

calculated from channels 4 and 5(Thermal infra red) brightness

temperature using the following

formula:


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Regional Model of Egypt

Regional Model of North Africa and

Mediterranean Sea

Weather Modeling Activities

at NARSS

NARSS Modeling-Simulation and Visualization Lab

Regional Model of Nile Basin

Regional Model of Africa

NWM of the Temperature Inversion

Over Cairo

High Performance Computing Activities

Use of Satellite Data In NWP at NARSS

Toshkan

Model
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Toshka_Presentation.ppthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Toshka_Presentation.ppthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Modeling_Of_Egypt.ppthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Sainai.ppthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Delta_Presentation.ppthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Toshka_Presentation.ppt


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Grid : 804x384x32 10Km

Grid Pts : 9.8 M Cell


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Grid : 420x540x32 10Km

Grid Pts : 8.6 M Cell

T t Di t ib ti


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Temperature Distribution

V l it Fi ld t 10 El ti


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Velocity Field at 10m Elevation

Velocit Vector At Elevation 2.7Km


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Coast and Breakwaters

Coastline close to Den Haag700m*700m

0m-24m pseudo-coloured

Coastline close to Den Haag

700m*700m

0m-10m pseudo-coloured.

enhanced breakwaters.


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Conclusions


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Conclusions

The techniques and methodologies for vulnerability assessment of Egypt'scoastal zones are reasonably well identified ( e.g. IPCC methodology based onremote sensing and GIS ).

The coastal zone of Egypt is seriously vulnerable to the effects of sea level riseand changes in weather patterns from both the physical and the socio-economic points of view .

Large areas of the governorates of Alexandria, Behaira, Kafr El-Shiekh, PortSaid, Damietta and Suez, are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise.

The coastal zones as a whole are also particularly vulnerable to changes inprecipitation, excessive frequency of storm surges and changes in the heatpattern through the impacts of floods .

The impacts of accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) through direct inundation, salt

water intrusion, deterioration of ecological systems and associated socio-economic consequences, have been addressed .

Impacts resulting from changes in the precipitation pattern, shortages of freshwater resources, loss of already scarce vegetation cover, increaseddesertification and associated socio-economic impacts, have yet to be studied

in depth .


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Mediterranean Sea

WESTERN

DESERT

EASTERN

DESERT

OIL FIELDS

GAS FIELDS

EGYPTS OIL & GAS FIELDS

SINAI

SETTIHAPY

EL TEMSAHWAKAR&KERSH

PORT FOUAD

TAO

THEKAHKAMOSE

MANGO

SETH

QANTARRAE. DELTA

KHILALA

SIMIANSAFFRON

SCARABROSETTA N. BALTIM

BALTIM

ABU MADIEL WASTANI

NW. QARA

W. ABU MADI

DISUQ

N. ABU QIR

W. ABU QIRABU QIR

KANAYES

RAS KANAYES

TAREK

HOURS

N. ALAMEIN

ALAMEINE. RAZZAK

AGHAR

RAZZAK

YADMA

OBAYIEDEMRY

FALAK

TUTW. TUT

UM BARKA

Salam

S. UMBARKA KHALDA

HAYAT

DORR

AMAN

M. NEMELEIHA

LOUTS

M. SE

KARNA

BARDYZAHRA

YASSERSAFIR

S. DABAA

SITRA 1&3

SITRA 5

BED-2

BED-3

BED-15 NE. ABU GHARADIG

ABU GHARADIG

N. ABU GHARADIG

WD-33

WD-33/1

GPCABU SENNAN

BED-1

BED-4 WD-19

QARUN

W. QARUN

BENI SUEF

DARAG

SUDR

MATARMA

ASL

WARDA

RAHMI

AMER

BAKR

W. GHARIB

RAS GHARIB

EL AYUN

UM EL YUSRKAREEM

KHEIRSHUKHEIR

GS 365-373-327 AMALSIDKIE. ZEIT

GAZWARINAZEIT BAY

RAS EL ESHRAS EL BAHAR

GEMSAGEMSA-SE

GEISUM

E. MALLAHA

RABEH

WADI SAHL

HURGHADA

FELEFEL

HAREED

TAWILA

ASHRAFI

BAHAR-NE

HILAL

SHOAB ALIGH 376

GARA M.WALI YOUNS

NESSIEM

MORGANBADRIRAMADAN

JULY

GS-300BELAYIM L.

BELAYIM M.FEIRAN

SIDRI

ABU RUDEISOCTOBER

RAS

BADRAN

N. OCTOBER

CAIRO

ISMAILIA

TANTA

ALEX.

MATRUH.

EL HAMRA.

BURG EL ARAB

N. BAHARIA

QASR

SIDI RAHMAN

DARFEEL

SAQARRA

EDFU

DENISE

TAMAD TAMAY/TORBAY

EL HAMDBED-11

kalabsha Amoun

Bokis


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Project Example 2:

Wind Program in Gulf of Suez Area

Proposed Area

Kharga

Proposed Area

east Nile

Proposed Area

west Nile

Proposed Area

at Gulf of Suez

Documents

Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011