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MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1. Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries 20~24 March 2006 Jakarta, Indonesia. 1. What is it?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1A.1
MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1
Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE)
Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries
20~24 March 2006
Jakarta, Indonesia
1A.2
1. What is it?• A coupled gas-cycle/climate model (MAGICC) that drives a spatial
climate change scenario generator (SCENGEN);
• MAGICC: Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced
Climate Change; SCENGEN: SCENario GENerator;
• Enabling non-expert users to investigate the implications of
alternative emissions scenarios for future global and regional
climate change;
• Allowing the exploration of emissions scenarios and scientific
uncertainties in projecting future global and regional climate
change;
• An upgraded version of MAGICC/SCENGEN2.4;
• Model developed by Tom Wigley, GUI by Seth McGinnis, funded by
U.S. EPA through Stratus Consulting
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Library of Emissions Scenarios
Gas Cycle Models
User Choices of Model
Parameters
AtmosphericComposition
Changes
Global-meanTemperature
and Sea Level Output
Global-mean Temperature
And Sea LevelModel
User ChoicesOf Model
Parameters
SCENGEN
THE MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 : MAGICC
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THE MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 : SCENGEN
Global-mean Temperature
from MAGICC
Regionalization Algorithm
Library ofGCM Data Sets
Library ofBaseline
ClimatologyData (1961-90)
User Choices
GCMs to use,Future time slice,
Region,…
RegionalClimate or
Climate ChangeOutput
1A.5
Using MAGICC/SCENGEN
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MAGICC: Selecting emissions scenarios
1A.7
MAGICC: Selecting emissions scenarios (continued)
1A.8
MAGICC: Selecting Forcings
1A.9
MAGICC: Displaying Results
1A.10
MAGICC: Displaying Results (continued)
1A.11
Running SCENGEN
1A.12
Running SCENGEN (continued)
1A.13
SCENGEN: Analysis
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SCENGEN: Model Selection
1A.15
SCENGEN: Area of Analysis
1A.16
SCENGEN: Select Variable
1A.17
SCENGEN: Emissions scenario
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SCENGEN: Map Results
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SCENGEN: Numerical ResultsINTER-MOD S.D. : AREA AVERAGE = 5.186 % (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) INTER-MOD SNR : AREA AVERAGE = -.067 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) PROB OF INCREASE : AREA AVERAGE = .473 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) GHG ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = -.411 % (FOR SCALED DATA) AEROSOL ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = -.277 % (FOR SCALED DATA) GHG AND AEROSOL : AREA AVERAGE = -.687 % (FOR SCALED DATA) *** SCALED AREA AVERAGE RESULTS FOR INDIVIDUAL MODELS *** (AEROSOLS INCLUDED) MODEL = BMRCD2 : AREA AVE = 2.404 (%) MODEL = CCC1D2 : AREA AVE = -5.384 (%) MODEL = CCSRD2 : AREA AVE = 6.250 (%) MODEL = CERFD2 : AREA AVE = -2.094 (%) MODEL = CSI2D2 : AREA AVE = 6.058 (%) MODEL = CSM_D2 : AREA AVE = 1.245 (%) MODEL = ECH3D2 : AREA AVE = .151 (%) MODEL = ECH4D2 : AREA AVE = -1.133 (%) MODEL = GFDLD2 : AREA AVE = 1.298 (%) MODEL = GISSD2 : AREA AVE = -3.874 (%) MODEL = HAD2D2 : AREA AVE = -5.442 (%) MODEL = HAD3D2 : AREA AVE = -.459 (%) MODEL = IAP_D2 : AREA AVE = -.088 (%) MODEL = LMD_D2 : AREA AVE = -6.548 (%) MODEL = MRI_D2 : AREA AVE = .065 (%) MODEL = PCM_D2 : AREA AVE = -3.451 (%) MODEL = MODBAR : AREA AVE = -.687 (%)
1A.20
To obtain the MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 software, please contact
Dr Tom Wigley
National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Boulder, Colorado
U.S.A
E-mail: [email protected]
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/index.html