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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook November 2013 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. Macroeconomic Environment. U.S. Real GDP Growth. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast. Civilian Unemployment Rate. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook
November 2013
Prepared by:Economic Services
National Cotton Council
MacroeconomicEnvironment
U.S. Real GDP Growth
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9 Percent
U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price
2030405060708090
100110120130140150160 Dollars per Barrel
U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast
80110140170200230260290320350380410440 Cents per Gallon
Civilian Unemployment Rate
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 133.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5Percent
U.S. Federal Budget Surplus(CBO Projection)
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-1800
-1500
-1200
-900
-600
-300
0
300$ Billions
12-Aug 13-May
CBO Ag Baseline Spending
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18$ Billions
Upland Cotton Other Commodity Programs Conservation
Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries
World US India China-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Percent
2011 2012 2013 2014
Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)
Jan-97Mar May Jul Sep NovJan-04Mar May Jul Sep NovJan-11Mar May0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
Real Exchange Rate Index(Other Important Trade Partners)
Jan-
01 Jun
Nov Ap
rSe
pFe
b Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan-
06 Jun
Nov Ap
rSe
pFe
b Jul
Dec
May Oct
Mar
Aug
Jan-
11 Jun
Nov Ap
rSe
pFe
b Jul90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Federal Reserve
Ag Prices Received Index
Jan-95Apr Jul OctJan-00Apr Jul OctJan-05Apr Jul OctJan-10Apr Jul Oct80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Crops Livestock
U.S. Net Farm Income
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13f0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 $ BillionsMarket Government Emergency
U.S. Cotton Supply
December Cotton FuturesAu
g
Sep
Oct
Nov De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
c30405060708090
100110120130140150160
Cents/Pound
December Corn FuturesAu
g
Sep
Oct
Nov De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
c275325375425475525575625675725775825875
Cents/BushelDec-12
November Soybean FuturesAu
g
Sep
Oct
Nov De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
580680780880980
1,0801,1801,2801,3801,4801,5801,6801,7801,880
Cents/BushelNov-12
2013 U.S. Cotton AreaThousand Acres
2012 Actual*
2013 Estimated* % Change
Southeast 2,748 2,653 -3.5Mid-South 2,030 1,235 -39.2Southwest 6,911 5,962 -13.7West 387 286 -26.1ALL UPLAND 12,076 10,136 -16.1ALL ELS 238 201 -15.5ALL COTTON 12,314 10,337 -16.1
* USDA
2013 U.S. Cotton AreaThousand Hectares
2012 Actual*
2013 Estimated* % Change
Southeast 1,112 1,074 -3.5Mid-South 822 500 -39.2Southwest 2,797 2,413 -13.7West 157 116 -26.1ALL UPLAND 4,887 4,102 -16.1ALL ELS 96 81 -15.5ALL COTTON 4,983 4,183 -16.1
* USDA
U.S. Cotton Production
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
0.0
0.9
1.7
2.6
3.5
4.4
5.2
6.1
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Supply
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.0
1.1
2.2
3.3
4.4
5.4
6.5
7.6Beg Stocks Imports Production
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Demand
Net Domestic Fiber Consumption
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13f0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0.0
2.2
4.4
6.5
8.7
10.9
13.1Million Bale Equivalents
Cotton Other
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1235
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
Percent
U.S. Cotton Retail Consumption
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
2013
2012
Components of Retail Fiber Consumption
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13f0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
0.0
0.9
1.7
2.6
3.5
4.4
5.2
6.1Fiber Equivalents
Retail Imported
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Textile Imports
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13f0
5
10
15
20
25
0.0
1.1
2.2
3.3
4.4
5.4Fiber Equivalents
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
0.0
0.7
1.3
2.0
2.6
3.3
3.9
4.6
5.2Fiber EquivalentsNon-U.S. Cotton ROW NAFTA CBI
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Product Trade with Mexico
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.7Imports Exports
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Product Trade with CBI
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.9Imports Exports
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Product Imports from China
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year)
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13f0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.2
2.6
Met
ric B
ales
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Marketing Year)
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.2
2.6
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Production & Use
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.0
1.1
2.2
3.3
4.4
5.4
6.5Exports Mill Use Production
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
The World Market& U.S. Cotton Exports
China Cotton Supply & Use
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-2.2
0.0
2.2
4.4
6.5
8.7
10.9
13.1
15.3Net Imports Production Use Stocks
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
World Cotton Production
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
25
50
75
100
125
150
0.0
5.4
10.9
16.3
21.8
27.2
32.7
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
World Fiber Mill Use
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0.0
4.4
8.7
13.1
17.4
21.8
26.1
30.5
34.9
39.2
43.6
47.9Cotton Polyester
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
*PCI
Fiber Prices
30507090
110130150170190210230250 Cents per Pound
A FE Index Asian Polyester Staple
World Cotton Mill Use
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0.0
4.4
8.7
13.1
17.4
21.8
26.1
30.5
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Foreign Cotton Production & Use
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
6.5
8.7
10.9
13.1
15.3
17.4
19.6
21.8
24.0
26.1
28.3
30.5Stocks Production Use
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
U.S. Cotton Exports
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.2
2.6
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.4
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
World Cotton Ending Stocks
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.0
2.2
4.4
6.5
8.7
10.9
13.1
15.3
17.4
19.6
21.8U.S. ROW China
Mill
ion
Bale
s
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Cotton Stocks/Use(World less China)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13f0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
43
52
44 44
6055
57 5761
48
5864
53 51
Percent
U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.35 3.90Production 17.32 13.11Imports 0.01 0.01
Total Supply 20.68 17.02Mill Use 3.50 3.60Exports 13.03 10.40
Total Offtake 16.53 14.00Ending Stocks 3.90 3.00Stocks-to-Use Ratio 23.6% 21.4%
2012/13e 2013/14p
U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks 0.73 0.85Production 3.77 2.86Imports 0.00 0.00
Total Supply 4.51 3.71Mill Use 0.76 0.78Exports 2.84 2.27
Total Offtake 3.60 3.05Ending Stocks 0.85 0.65Stocks-to-Use Ratio 23.6% 21.4%
2012/13e 2013/14p
World Supply and DemandMillion Bales
Beginning Stocks 72.89 88.06Production 123.09 117.22Imports 46.10 38.95
Mill Use 107.12 109.63Exports 46.73 38.95
Ending Stocks 88.06 95.71Stocks-to-Use Ratio 82.2% 87.3%
2012/13e 2013/14p
World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks 15.88 19.19Production 26.82 25.54Imports 10.04 8.49
Mill Use 23.34 23.88Exports 10.18 8.49
Ending Stocks 19.19 20.85Stocks-to-Use Ratio 82.2% 87.3%
2012/13e 2013/14p
MerchantsGinners Cottonseed
Producers
Cooperatives
WarehousesManufacturers
