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Statistical Models Based on the Gutenberg-Richter a and b values for Estimating Probabilities of Moderate Earthquakes in Kanto, Japan. M. Imoto ( [email protected] ) NationalResearch Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Statistical Models Based onthe Gutenberg-Richter a and b values for Estimating Probabilities of Moderate Earthquakes in Kanto, Japan
M. Imoto ( [email protected] )
NationalResearch Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention
Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken 305-0006, Japan
Statsei410/Jan/2006 14:30-15:00
Utsu (1977)
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BA
: Validity
Aki (1981)
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Example 1
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(After L.M.Jones 1985)
Example 2
bMaMM 010)( 0
Gutenberg – Richter a, b values
bMa 01010
)h()h(1 baC
Data
• Target: M 5.0
• Study Volume: 100x100x90 km3 in Kanto
• Model Period: 1990-1999, 38 events
• Test Period: 2000-Sept.2005, 19 events
• Samples: 5.0 > M 2.0 within R=20km 10 years before time of assess.
Model Period
Test Period
A-Model & B-Model
cMMM 0 0M
cM
: M of Target
: Cutoff M
A-Model: variation of a-value
aa 10 C 1
B-Model: variation of a- and b- values
bMab
10 C 1
Information Gain
baselineproposed LLIG lnln
i poisson
proposed
ln
in Restrospective Analysis
Model PeriodA-Model & B-Model Performance Charts
“conditional distribution”
a(x)b(x)
a-value
b-value
b-value
AxB-Model
AxB-Model: variation of a- and b- values
C bCbCaba
2321010 1
Model PeriodA-Model & A×B-Model Performance
Test PeriodA-Model & A×B -Model Performance
Summary
Probability Gain
