Luxembourg, 9 Juin 2010

CENTRAL COMMISSION FOR THE NAVIGATION

OF THE RHINE

CENTRAL COMMISSION FOR THE NAVIGATION OF THE RHINE

Norbert Kriedel

Economist

COMMISSION CENTRALE POUR LA NAVIGATION DU RHINZENTRALKOMMISSION FÜR DIE RHEINSCHIFFFAHRT

CENTRALE COMMISSIE VOOR DE RIJNVAART

Norbert Kriedel, Economist, CCNR

Market Observation European Inland NavigationCentral Commission for Navigation on the Rhine

Inland Shipping Data in Market Monitoring

2

ETISplus Waterborne Transport Data Workshop Neth-ER (The Netherlands House for Education and Research Aarlenstraat (Rue d’Arlon) 22, Brussels12.05.2011

Overview Main Areas of Market Observation

3

Overview Sources of Market Observation1) Transport Demand

4

Data for transport demand…

• National Statistical Offices

• National Shipping Authorities (also regional data) Austria: Via Donau

France: Voies Navigables de France Germany: Wasserschifffahrtsdirektionen

• International organizations Eurostat ITF/OECD

Goods Transport in Inland Navigation – Danube Countries

5Sources: National Statistical Offices

Data for Transport Demand – Problems and Limitations

6

1) No actual transport statistics for certain countries (e.g. Belgium, Netherlands)

2) Transit Traffic sometimes not included in official data.

Alternative: Estimations based on …

• Inland Port Statistics

• Sea Port Statistics (overall traffic / hinterland share / modal split share of IWT)

Data for Transport Demand – Problems and Limitations (II)

7

3) Eurostat Change from NST/R goods classification to NST 2007

Loss of information New goods categories are often not well specified for market observation

Example:

Old Classification: (NST/R)Code 11: Iron Ore, Metal Wastes …. Steel segmentCode 15: Sand & Gravel …. Construction segment

New Classification: (NST 2007)GT 03: Ores, Sand & Gravel, other mining materials …. Both segments

Data for Transport Demand – Problems and Limitations (II)

8

Eurostat Change from NST/R goods classification to NST 2007

Possible solution of the Problem:

Harmonisation of NST 2007 on 3 digits at a European level

all countries shall be obliged to produce statistics at this degree of detail

Transport Ores and Metal Wastes(Rhine)

9Sources: German Statistical Office; Eurofer. German Steel Production

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Jan 2008

May 2008

Sep 2008

Jan 2009

May 2009

Sep 2009

Jan 2010

May 2010

Sep 2010

Jan 2011

1.00

0 t Steel Production

Transport Ores and Metal Wastes

Steel Production = Reference Series

Overview Sources of Market Observation2) Transport Supply

10

Data for fleet statistics…

•National Statistical Offices•International Ship Registers (IVR)•Ministries of Transport

Problems/Limitations:

• Sometimes two different sources for one country

• Problems of actuality in some countries

• Active / Inactive fleet: Some sources contain inactive ships

Tanker Shipping in Western Europe – Comparison of Supply and Demand over time

11Source: Calculation CCNR based on data for tanker fleets in Belgium France, Germany, Netherlands, Luxemburg (source: IVR)

020406080

100120140160

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Index

2003

= 100

Fleet Capacity

Transport Volume

2003 until 2010

TransportVolume + 4 %

Fleet Capacity + 35 %

Overview Sources of Market Observation3) Microeconomic Indicators

12

• Cost Structure and Evolution of Costs sources: shipping industry associations

• Freight Rates sources: surveys of shippers

• Turnover calculations CCNR for dry cargo market / tanker shipping based on freight rates and transport volumes of the whole industry

Freight Rates in Tanker Shipping on the Rhine (Gasoil freight rates)

13Source: PJK International

Freight Rates in Tanker Shipping and Water level

14Source: PJK International; Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde

Freight Rates, Transport Demand and Turnover (Tanker shipping)

15Source: CCNR

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

2009-1

2009-2

2009-3

2009-4

2010-1

2010-2

2010-3

2010-4

year-on-year % change

Turnover

Freight Rates

Transport Volume

Overview Sources of Market Observation4) Labour Market Issues

16

Data sources for employment studies in inland shipping …

• National Statistical Offices (for overall employment and employment in sub-markets, wages, etc. )

• National Social Security Organizations (for employment according to age groups, number of foreign personnel, number of female and male employees, etc.)

• Social Security Organizations for self-employed (for number of self-employed inland shippers)

Employment in Dutch Inland Navigation (fte = full time equivalents)

17Source: CBS

Age Structure in Belgian Inland Shipping

18Source: ONSS / INASTI

11,3

45,2 43,5

18,8

49,9

31,2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

15 till 29 30 till 49 over 50

% sh

are

self-employed

employed

Employment in German Inland Shipping

19Source: German Statistical Office

Thank you very much for your attention.

Merci beaucoup pour votre attention. Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit.

Dank u voor uw aandacht.

Norbert Kriedel, CCRMarket observation –

Central Commission for Navigation of the Rhine (CCNR)

20