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www.lupis.eu
LUPIS - Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Floor Brouwer, Irina Bezlepkina, Le Chen (LEI)
with contributions from LUPIS partners
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Improve knowledge of the impact
that different land use policies will have on the
sustainable development of developing
countries
Develop integrated assessment tools
for application by scientists in a selected
number of developing countries
Building blocks
Tools developed in European context
Test applicability in developing countries
Key objectives
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
EU FP6 Project “LUPIS”
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing
Countries
15 partners, 11 Countries
Feb 2007 – March 2011
Co-ordination
Floor Brouwer
(LEI, part of Wageningen UR)
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Research Questions in impact assessments
What is the impact on sustainable development of implementing...
(Tunisia)... water conservation measures
(Kenya)......group ranch subdivision policy
(India)... organic farming policies
(Brazil)... land and forest conservation policies
(Indonesia) ... land conversion control policies
(China)... water pollution control measures (policies)
(Mali)... plans towards expanding land under irrigation
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Methodological framework (iterative process) Pre-modelling:
(problem analysis)
Modelling:
(quantify indicators)
Post-modelling:
(evaluate contribution of policy to sustainable
development)
Users
/sta
keh
old
ers
Data
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Involvement of Stakeholders at various stages
National policy forums, workshops – informing and
interviewing
Institutional assessment (pre- and post-modelling)
regarding policy governance
Weighing indicators, Land Use Functions, Sustainability
dimensions (post-modelling)
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Information System
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Tunisia: impacts of water pricing policies
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
National level Regional level Local level Farm level
Medenine Governorate
Tunisia
Oum Zessar watershed
Study area
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Farm type characteristics
FARM_1 FARM_2 FARM_3 FARM_4
Production system State State Private Private
Total area/farm (ha) 3.5 2.5 6.4 3.0
Irrigated land (%) 56 56 56 56
Share (%)
Cereals
Vegetables
Olives
15
21
51
9
30
45
12
55
24
6
38
38
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Scenarios
Baseline: Maintained existing water pricing
system and water allocation. Existing prices
covers the running costs of the institution
responsible for water management
Policy: Increase of irrigation water price by 13%
per year
LUPIS contract number GOCE-036955
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
IA Results: Farm level, 2015 Farm Income (DT/ha)
-6%-8%
-21% -25%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
FARM_1 FARM_2 FARM_3 FARM_4
(DT/ ha)
baseline_2015
Scenario_1&2_2015
WATER USE (m3/ha)
-11%-5%
-18%
-15%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
FARM_1 FARM_2 FARM_3 FARM_4
wa
ter
us
e
(m3
/ha
)
baseline_2015
Scenario_1&2_2015SOIL EROSION (T/ha)
- 7%
- 6%~-1%
- 3%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
FARM_1 FARM_2 FARM_3 FARM_4
So
il e
rosio
n (
T/h
a)
baseline_2015
Scenario_1&2_2015
LABOUR USE (Hours/ha)
-7%
-5%
-3% -4%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
FARM_1 FARM_2 FARM_3 FARM_4
(Hours/ ha)
baseline_2015
Scenario_1&2_2015
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Kenya: impacts of land subdivision policy
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Study Area
Narok district
Highlands:
• 10% of region, with rich
volcanic soils
• rain-fed large-scale
agricultural farms
Lowlands:
• 90% of region, with poor
quality soils
• group ranches for
livestock rearing
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Scenarios
Assumptions Baseline
BAU
Optimistic
S1
Pessimistic
S2
Equitable
S3
Population growth 2.8% 2.0% 5.0% 4.0%
Free movement of livestock
and wildlife Partly Yes No
Partly, more than BAU but
less than S1
Livestock population -30% 5% -50% No change
Wildlife population -30% 5% -50% No change
Equitable distribution of
tourism revenue No Yes No Partly improved
Cropping areas 10% 3% 15% 5%
Land use planning 20% 80% 5% 10%
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Results of impact assessment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
BAU Optimistic Pessimistic Equitable
Total contribution of each scenario to each sustainability dimension
Environmental
Economic
Social
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
India: impacts of organic policies
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Study area: Karnataka
Northern Dry Zone
Central Dry Zone
Eastern Dry Zone
Southern Transition Zone
Coastal Zone
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
IA Results for Bijapur: Farm level, 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25Fertiliser Use ('00
kg/ha)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Labour req. (days/ha)
0
60
120
180Net income ('000 Rup/ha) Jw-Wt Jowar-Wheat
Jw-Sf Jowar-Sunflower
Jw-Ps Jowar-Pulse
Sf-Wt Sunflower-Wheat
Wt-Mz Wheat-Maize
Grp Grapes
Sgc Sugarcane
Jw-Mz Jowar-Maize
Wt-Ps Wheat-Pulse
Jw-Ps Jowar-Pulse
Mz-Ps Maize-Pulse
Conventional
Organic
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Impact Assessment in LUPIS: Conclusions Need for ex-ante policy assessments: to understand
intended and unintended impacts of policies
Rich tool-boxes are not sufficient: integrated way of research is emerging for developing countries
Challenges in the collaboration: diversity of cultures, lack of ex-ante in-house approaches, limited experience in multi-disciplinary research, data constraints, hardly existing science-policy platforms
Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries
Impact Assessment in LUPIS: Conclusions LUPIS IA: re-use tools and knowledge, integrate data,
models, stakeholders; balanced qualitative & quantitative methods; common language
Governance is critically important in understanding sustainable development in developing countries (implementation and enforcement of policies)
LUPIS has contributed to more frequent and systematic interactions with stakeholders than is usual approaches (National and Intl Policy Forums and workshops)