Luiz Cheim, Lan Lin - IEEE Fall Meeting - Milwaukee 10/23/2012
IEEE C57.104 Revision (Nov 2011)
TF Database Analysis Luiz Cheim and Lan LinABB Inc.
Building the Database
+ HQ= 521,700 records
Transformers Age Groups
Transformers Power Ratings
Transformers Voltage Classes
Transformers Oil Preservation Type
Percentiles of Hydrocarbons (all data)
%
ppm
Percentiles of CO,CO2 and TDCG (all data)
%
ppm
Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Age Groups
%
ppm
Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Voltage Class
%
ppm
Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Power Ratings
%
ppm
Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Source of Data
%
ppm
Percentiles of All Gases (Suspicious Units)
%
ppm
Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Power Ratings(Suspicious Units)
%
ppm
Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Voltage Class(Suspicious Units)
%
ppm
Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Oil Preservation
%
ppm
Annual Rate of Gas Formation (ppm/year)Percentiles of All Gases
%
ppm
After that…
1. HQ Data incorporated2. Discussed unknown oil preservation system3. Question of Rate of Gas Formation vs Levels
Montreal Meeting (May 2o12)
Revisited Percentiles with Following Condition:
O2/ (N2 + O2) < 5% and N2 > 70,000 => N2 Blanket5 – 15% Membrane/Rubber Bag> 15% Open Breather
Legend (next slides)
IEEE Condition 1 LimitCigre Typical Value (Brochure SCD1.32, 2010)AFMo Arc Furnace, 90th Percentile (mineral oil)AFSi Arc Furnace, 90th Percentile (Silicon oil)
H2 – All Data
IEEE
AFMo
AFSi
Cigre
CH4 – All Data
IEEE
AFMo
AFSi Cigre
C2H2 – All Data
IEEE
AFMo
AFSi
Cigre
C2H4 – All Data
IEEE
AFMo
AFSi
Cigre
C2H6 – All Data
IEEE
AFMo AFSi
Cigre
CO – All Data
IEEE
AFMo
AFSi = 1936
Cigre
CO2 – All Data
IEEE
AFMo
AFSi = 25,387
Cigre
TDCG – All Data
IEEE
AFMo
AFSi = 2,160
Cigre
Further Breakdown…
Given a type of oil preservation (say, N2 Blanket)
What happens to Gas Levels vs Voltage Class, MVA, Age?
H2, 90th Percentile – Per Voltage Class
IEEE
AFMo
AFSi
Cigre
H2, 90th Percentile – Per MVA Rating
IEEE
AFMo
AFSi
Cigre
H2, 90th Percentile – Per Age Group
IEEE
AFMo
AFSi
Cigre
C2H6, 90th Percentile – Per Voltage Class
Cigre
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rate Subject
1. Should we calculate rates percentiles for all gases?
2. Should we associate rates to levels? How?3. Cigre recent experience
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisCigre Levels vs Sampling Intervals
Cigre SCD1.32 Brochure, December 2010
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisCigre Rates vs Sampling Intervals
Cigre SCD1.32 Brochure, December 2010
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisCigre SCD1.32 Brochure December 2010
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisProposal Under Discussion – Level vs Rate
Frequency of DGA
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisProposal Under Discussion – Level vs Rate
Severity of Fault (?)
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rates (IEEE Database)
t
ppm
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rates (IEEE Database)
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rate Issues
72
115
133 days
dayppmt
ppm/323.0
133
72115
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rate Issues
72
115
133 days
yearppmt
ppm/118
133
72115
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rate Issues ± 15% Cigre Typical Lab Accuracy
133 days
yearppmt
ppm/41
133
8398
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rate Issues
72
115
343 days
yearppmt
ppm/50
343
11568
68
?
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rate Issues
yearppmt
ppm/5.13
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisAnother Example
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisAnother Example
27 ppm/year
500 ppm/year
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisInherent Uncertainty in Trend Calculation
1. Multiple Laboratories2. Lab Variations (repeatability, reproducibility, accuracy)
3. Seasonal variations (temperature, etc)
4. Sampling errors (humans, sample contamination, etc)
5. Type of Transformer (N2, etc…)
6. Sampling interval??
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisDistribution of DGA Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisDistribution of DGA Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisDistribution of DGA Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisGas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval
38%
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisRates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis
53
204
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisFood for Thought!
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisProposal for Discussion – Level vs Rate
Severity of Fault (N2 Blanket, etc)
90th | t 95th | t …
Table conditioned to t = Sampling Interval
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisRate of Gas Increase vs Sampling Interval???
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisRate of Gas Increase vs Sampling Interval???
Revision C57.104 – TF on Data AnalysisRate of Gas Increase vs Sampling Interval???
Food for Thought…