LTE_WhitePaper2014

LTE 2014 Markets & Trends Facts & Figures

White Paper

This White Paper presents excerps of publications from two dedicated research categories: 1. Wireless which covers

- A half-yearly updated LTE dataset

- A half-yearly updated state-of-LTE report

- Bimonthly reports on highly topical LTE issues

- Privileged access to lead wireless analysts

2. Spectrum which covers

- A yearly updated Spectrum dataset

- A yearly updated state-of-Spectrum report

- Quarterly reports on highly topical Spectrum issues

- Privileged access to lead spectrum analysts

White Paper LTE 2014

www.idate.org © IDATE 2013 2

IDATE creates the DigiWorld Institute

Founded in 1977, IDATE has gained a reputation as a leader in tracking telecom, Internet and media markets, thanks to the skills of its teams of specialized analysts. Now, with the support of close to 40 member companies – which include many of the digital economy’s most influential players – the newly rebranded DigiWorld Institute has entered into a new stage of its development, structured around three main areas of activity:

IDATE Research, an independent observatory whose task is to keep a close and continual watch on digital world industries, collect relevant data and provide benchmark analyses on market developments and innovations in the telecom, Internet and media sectors – through its comprehensive collection of market reports and market watch services.

IDATE Consulting, time-tested analysis and consultancy solutions: Our multi-disciplinary teams of economists and engineers established their credibility and independence through the hundreds of research and consulting assignments they perform every year on behalf of top industry players and public authorities.

DigiWorld Institute, a European forum open on the world: The DigiWorld Institute will take existing IDATE initiatives, such as the DigiWorld Summit, the DigiWorld Yearbook and the monthly clubs in Paris, London and Brussels, to the next level. Members have the opportunity to participate in think tanks on the core issues that will shape the industry’s future, drawing on the knowledge of outside experts and our own teams.



Coverage of the 2014 IDATE Research Programme IDATE Research's market report programme constitutes a natural extension of the work performed by our teams of analysts, as well as our ongoing investments in information and monitoring systems for player strategies and markets in the digital economy – the DigiWorld.

Our research catalog is organized around four areas that cover 12 specific categories. Each of these provides insight into key markets through a comprehensive set of deliverables – datasets, reports and synoptic slide decks.

Focus on our Wireless category Our Wireless research solutions are specifically designed to provide operators, vendors, government bodies, and regulators with a comprehensive analysis of the issues affecting this promising market and to allow readers to keep track of LTE markets around the globe thanks to a unique database that draws on regular surveys with the world’s leading telcos and equipment makers. Its reliability is rooted in the proven expertise of a team of senior consultants who specialize in LTE markets, who carry out assignments on behalf of corporate leaders, public authorities and international organizations, advising them on sales and marketing policies and superfast broadband strategies

Prices above are in EUR excl. taxes and correspond to a single-department licence (1 to 5 users)

Contact: Isabel Jimenez, +33 467 144 404 or [email protected]

Telecom Strategies Media Strategies Digital Living

Wireless

Spectrum

Wireline

Personal Data & Ad

Connected Economy

Video Distribution &

Consumer Electronics

Television & Over-The-Top

Telecom & Over-The-Top

Telecom

Players & Markets

Future Networks

Satellite

Digital Entertainment

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Wireless package 2013includes 3-hour customized research & unmetered analyst support

12 000 M 13300_2

doc Report LTE - China 18/10/2012 18 300 M 12305_11

doc Report LTE Pricing Strategies 26/02/2013 25 500 M 13305IN1

doc Report LTE Chipset & Devices 29/03/2013 20 500 M 13305IN2

doc + ppt Report Video on LTE networks 28/06/2013 88 2 000 M 13312M R

doc Report TD-LTE 02/07/2013 36 500 M 13305IN3

doc Report LTE-Advanced 10/08/2013 29 800 M 13305IN4

doc Report Voice over LTE 14/10/2013 22 800 M 13305IN5

doc + ppt Report Smallcells & Carrier Wifi 31/10/2013 113 3 000 M 13313M R

doc Report LTE only 10/12/2013 20 1 000 M 13305IN6

xls Dataset World LTE Market data & forecasts up to 2017 17/12/2013 n.r. 4 000 M 13305DB

ppt Report LTE State-of-the-Art 17/12/2013 55 2 000 M 13305SR

Wireless package 2014includes 5-hour customized research & unmetered analyst support

10 000 M 14002

xls Dataset World LTE market - data & forecasts up to 2018 June/Dec. 2014 n.r. 6 000 M 14301B

ppt Report State of LTE worldwide June/Dec. 2014 40-60 3 000 M 14302B

doc+ppt Report TD-LTE (indicative title) 01/03/2014 20-40 1 250 M 14305IN1

doc+ppt Report VoLTE (indicative title) 01/05/2014 20-40 1 250 M 14305IN2

doc+ppt Report LTE in the USA (indicative title) 01/09/2014 20-40 1 250 M 14305IN3

doc+ppt Report LTE advanced & 5G 01/10/2014 40-80 3 000 M 14306M R



Foreword

Yves Gassot, CEO IDATE

The success of LTE is no doubt the most spectacular illustration of the inexorable rise of wireless. Plus the allocation of new frequency bands to mobile operators, the expected progress with LTE Advanced, and the interleaving with managed Wi-Fi are bound to further drive this momentum in the coming years.

Alongside these technological strides, are also seeing users and the services and applications industry moving over en masse to the mobile internet, which is naturally having a considerable impact on the internet giants, and consumer electronics, component and PC suppliers. Not to mention e-commerce vendors, and banking, gaming, TV and advertising companies.

Among the many effects on the telecoms sector, three of the most momentous are that:

LTE and its developments will likely provide the industry with the opportunity to make good on promises to consumers over the innovation potential of access, and this not only for smartphones and the latest social media service. It will mean managing services tiered by quality and speed in a way that is clear to consumers, and accepted by internet companies. The rollout of LTE is also a good time for operators to redefine their business models for the internet era;

the price wars that have broken out in some markets, not least across Europe, reduce competition to the single parameter of price, which makes it difficult to sell different levels of quality. This is weighing on both margins and capex. The LTE era is likely to also be the era of market consolidation in the form of M&A and broad infrastructure sharing agreements – albeit under terms set by competition authorities and sector-specific regulation;

this consolidation will not remain confined to the wireless sector, and is already encompassing mergers with cable companies and wireline telcos. Ultra high-speed mobile systems require small cells and have massive backhauling needs. In addition to the expected interleaving of fixed and mobile networks, the wisdom of bundles that include wireline and wireless services is becoming clear. All of which points to an entire industry that will need to be overhauled in the coming years.

Main LTE trends

119 million LTE subscriptions as of mid-2013 in the top 10 markets. Close to 130.5 million LTE subscriptions worldwide

Total LTE revenue in 2013 estimated at €57 billion

Rapid growth of LTE coverage in South Korea (100%) and the US (Verizon Wireless reporting 96% in Q2 2013)

We forecast more than 1,313 million LTE subscriptions worldwide, by the end of 2017

Close to 450 mobile operators have committed to launching LTE

Close to 1,000 LTE-ready device models as of mid-2013

Already 19 LTE frequency bands in use in Q2 2013

TD-LTE is still a nascent ecosystem with only 2 million subscriptions at mid-2013

LTE-Advanced was launched in the second half of 2013 in South Korea

Video represents close to 60% of LTE traffic



LTE subs and share in total mobile broadband in selected countries at mid-2013

Access all our available data on LTE via our multi-client dataset

Contact: Isabel Jimenez -

+33 467 144 404 – [email protected]



1. TD-LTE

At May 2013 17 TD-LTE commercial networks and 34 in-deployment and planned networks across the globe. All these deployments are limited, apart from Softbank’s network which comprises thousands of base stations but is concentrated over a small geographical area in the largest Japanese cities. The real take-off for the TD-LTE ecosystem will come from the Chinese market and to a lesser extent from Clearwire in the USA. Today, the TD-LTE ecosystem is very small compared to LTE FDD.

TD-LTE and LTE FDD ecosystems – May 2013

Number of commercial networks

Number of countries Subscribers (millions)

TD-LTE 17 13 <2

LTE-FDD 178 (Q1 2013) 72 >100

Source: IDATE, 4G Americas

The main TD-LTE operator today is Softbank in Japan with more than 700,000 subscribers. The most important new entrants in this field are going to be Clearwire (USA), China Mobile and probably Airtel (India).

Our estimates for TD-LTE subscriptions in May 2013, based on the data from our LTE Watch service, indicate fewer than 2 million subscriptions.

Handset availability is key to TD-LTE success but, in June 2013, the TD-LTE devices are lacking, according to many TD-LTE carriers. It is expected that when China Mobile starts buying millions of handsets, the whole ecosystem will take off. The two main chipset vendors in this field, Qualcomm and Hisilicon, Huawei’s subsidiary, will give a good indication as to how the device market will develop. It should be noted that all LTE chipsets support TDD and FDD modes today. Mass-market TD-LTE smartphones could be available by mid-2014 if a TD-LTE license is awarded to China Mobile at the end of this year.

Fewer bands are defined for TDD operations than for the FDD mode. All TDD bands are above 1900 MHz which is a significant hurdle for mobile operators wishing to build national coverage. These high frequency bands are well-suited to providing capacity.

Among the 17 operators that have already launched commercial services over their TD-LTE networks, 6 have started a converged FDD/TDD LTE rollout. We have identified three main strategies regarding the use of TD-LTE:

Limited TD-LTE rollouts, including operators migrating from Mobile WiMAX to TD-LTE (except Clearwire);

Large scale TD-LTE rollouts (eg. Clearwire, China Mobile, Softbank);

Converged TDD/FDD LTE rollouts or use of TD-LTE as a complement to LTE FDD.

For mobile operators, the preferred choice when moving to LTE is FDD and sub-1 GHz spectrum. TD-LTE is generally selected when FDD is not readily available.

The Asia/Pacific region appears to be crucial for the development of the TD-LTE standard as China and India represent the biggest potential markets for TD-LTE technology. TD-LTE can only be a success if China Mobile is authorized to start its commercial network quickly i.e. at the beginning of 2014. Otherwise, the TD-LTE chipset and device ecosystem will be delayed, endangering the development of the technology.

The TD-LTE ecosystem will however remain a limited one and, apart from China, TD-LTE will mainly be used as a capacity complement or an offloading option for mobile operators. The real TD-LTE take-off, apart from the Chinese market, will certainly be linked to the offloading needs of LTE FDD carriers.

At the end of 2017, we forecast that TD-LTE will represent 20-25% of total LTE subscriptions.

An update of our TD-LTE report will be available up from March 2014!



2. LTE Advanced

Higher data rates, with cost- efficiency

LTE networks in operation today mainly use LTE Release 8 of the 3GPP standard. LTE-Advanced (Release 10) brings many technological innovations which enable higher data rates on both the uplink and the downlink and deliver better performance at the cell edge.

The first LTE-Advanced networks were launched in early H2 2013 and the mass market for LTE-Advanced is expected to have taken shape by 2014-2015.

LTE-Advanced enables higher data rates: theoretically, 150 Mbps on the downlink and as high as 3 Gbps in the years ahead. An uplink maximum of 1.5 Gbps will be possible.

LTE-Advanced brings many enhancements to LTE networks. LTE operators can ‘pick and choose’ the functionalities such as carrier aggregation, enhanced Inter-Cell Interference Coordination (eICIC), HetNets and enhanced MIMO.

Carrier aggregation: a total up to 100 MHz bandwidth can be aggregated with a maximum of five component carriers. This will enable higher user peak throughput.

Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets): LTE-A enables operators to deploy low-power small-cells in addition to macrocells in the same channel.

Enhanced MIMO: up to eight multiplexed layers for downlink and up to four multiplexed layers for uplink.

Relay function

Spectrum efficiency: 1.4 to 1.6 times better than on LTE Release 8.

SK Telecom places much emphasis on carrier aggregation but many other players in the industry indicate that higher-order MIMO and HetNets are also key elements in LTE-Advanced.

It is assumed that 5G technologies will be commercial around 2020. As far as 3GPP work is concerned, Release 13 and beyond will pave the way for an eventual ‘5G’.

USA, South Korea and Japan are currently the front runners regarding LTE-Advanced implementation. The leaders in LTE-Advanced deployment are South Korean operators, headed by SKT and LG U+.

On 26 June 2013, SK Telecom, the pioneer in LTE-Advanced, launched its LTE-A services in parallel with the Samsung Galaxy S4 LTE-A enabled version. At the end of July 2013, SK Telecom reported 300,000 LTE-Advanced subscribers in South Korea, out of a total LTE base of 11 million.

The LTE-Advanced market will soon follow in opening in Japan and the USA. New markets will open in 2014 and mass adoption will start in 2015.

LTE-Advanced compatible smartphones were launched in Q2 2013 by Samsung and LG. Apple is expected to follow in H2 2013 or early 2014.

LTE-Advanced tariffing: SK Telecom, the leader in LTE-Advanced, is currently providing LTE-A at the same price as LTE.

We forecast that LTE-Advanced will represent 30-40% of the total LTE subscriber base at the end of 2017. This would represent between 425 and 567 million LTE-A subscriptions worldwide.

Detailed analyses and viewpoints available in the full report "LTE Advanced", publication date August 2013



3. VoLTE

An update on the technology and its adoption

Today, Voice-over-LTE is slowly emerging at a worldwide level:

Commercial implementation started in South Korea and in the USA in Q3 2012. We expect a massive commercial launch to take place in 2013 in North America and some countries in Asia and in 2014 in Western Europe. As LTE coverage improves, the number of VoLTE-capable networks should start growing in 2014 and 2015 as solutions in the network and in the chipset mature.

We expect that close to ten commercial LTE networks will support VoLTE at the end of 2013.

IMS is key to VoLTE development as VoLTE will be implemented by all LTE operators, but only at a later stage. It is necessary to implement an IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) in the core network in order to support VoIP. Once VoLTE is implemented and global coverage of the population is reached, operators will be able to provide LTE-only devices to their customers. IMS transition is slow mainly due to technical concerns such as integration with existing OSS/BSS.

VoLTE-capable devices have made progress too in power consumption but the ‘ecosystem’ still remains limited. As VoLTE is more differentiating for Mobile Network Operators than for device manufacturers, we believe the development of VoLTE device will be driven by operator launches.

The drivers to move to VoLTE for mobile operators are the following:

Network consolidation: it is very costly to operate 2G, 3G and LTE networks in parallel. In the long term, the objective is to switch off the 2G or 3G network.

Performance: VoLTE enables operators to provide shorter call-set-up and to provide HD voice services.

Services: VoLTE can enable the operators to offer rich services combining voice, messaging and video. The switch from CSFB to VoLTE is an opportunity for MNOs to better fight OTT services, thanks to their ability to provide secured Quality of Service and better interoperability.

Cost reductions: VoLTE is much more spectrum efficient than circuit-switched calls on 3G networks.

Even though early VoLTE services in South Korea have seen increasing ARPU, it still remains to be seen whether the consumer will be willing to pay more for these services.

Detailed analyses and viewpoints available in the full report "VoLTE", publication date October 2013



4. Video on LTE Networks

Are broadcast, caching and mobile CDNs the answers to the growth of mobile video traffic?

Video already represents more than 50% of total mobile data traffic

Mobile data traffic has been exploding since 2009 with 100% growth rates being observed until 2012 when this figure fell to 70-80%. Smartphone shipments will overtake feature phones in 2013. Indeed, this category of devices will be responsible for the major part of data traffic on mobile networks in the years to come. New devices such as tablets are also fuelling video traffic on mobile networks. In 2012, video represented more than 50% of total mobile data consumption.

Mobile video technical chain evolutions

The evolution of mobile networks is moving towards greater integration with technical solutions used on fixed networks. Initiated by mobile video on 3G networks, dedicated mobile technologies formats are being replaced by popular video formats from the fixed Web.

The High Efficiency Video Codec (HEVC) and H.265 are codecs offering more compression. HEVC allows 50% in theory compared to H264/MPEG-4. Its adoption is not expected in the very near future, and clearly not before 2015.

Video distribution on LTE networks

Several technologies are available for distributing mobile video. The main network technology is based on unicast, while multicast is not used, even though it could help alleviate traffic congestion on LTE networks. Distribution modes, however, have not yet converged with fixed systems since mobile CDN is still non-existent today. Current telco CDN deployments aim to deal with mobile delivery, by using their servers for both fixed and mobile deliveries. Nevertheless, they face numerous challenges.

Implementation of eMBMS, the broadcast mode of LTE, should be smooth as devices will not be specific and this could lead to new business models. eMBMS will be deployed in developed countries first, USA and South Korea being frontrunners. Some new business cases for eMBMS have already been identified.

Video services development on LTE networks

We have identified various types of video services on LTE networks which were first developed in most advanced LTE countries such as the USA, South Korea and Japan: video aggregation portal services, live and streaming services, download services, upload services and video conferencing services.

HD Video is promoted by South Korean mobile operators such as LG U+.

Video upload applications such as the Black Box service, developed by KT, can use a LTE smartphone’s camera to record what happens in front of the car.

Video calls are pushed by the carriers which support RCS development.

New business models might appear with the expected development of the broadcast mode and could generate new revenues for LTE carriers.

Traffic forecasts

Video is already representing close to 50% of total mobile traffic worldwide. We expect this share to surpass 60% in 2017 in Europe and in the Americas. Video traffic on LTE networks will represent more than 27 Exabytes per year in 2017 corresponding to 38% of total mobile traffic on 2G, 3G and LTE networks.

Detailed analyses and viewpoints available in the full report "Video on LTE networks", publication date June 2013



5. LTE only

How much potential?

With LTE nationwide coverage a near-reality in some advanced markets such as South Korea, the USA and Japan, the question arises of the relevance of launching LTE-only devices. Indeed, LTE-only devices come with benefits for both operators and consumers, especially in terms of cost, energy consumption and space saved inside the device and available for additional components or larger capacity batteries.

For the operators, LTE-only devices may even become strategic since it will help them to transition their users more easily to their latest network while releasing new resources to cope with the data traffic explosion. Today, voice is no longer of any importance, but data is. With carrier aggregation, each chunk of spectrum available is valuable. Fewer 2G/3G users means more capacity for mobile broadband networks.

Few operators have already launched LTE-only devices. Verizon is one of the first to have done so with a digital camera and more recently a tablet. Other operators such as LG U+ in South Korea have also done so with ultrabooks and hybrid laptop/tablets devices.

However, some applications are more suitable than others for those kinds of devices. The first LTE-only handsets, for instance, should arrive on the market in 2014-2015 but they will require VoLTE to be supported on the network to have any meaning. Still, as long as LTE is not widely available worldwide with LTE roaming in place (which may take time), using its device abroad may be tricky.

In the data-centric segment of devices however, the potential is bigger but the question of the competition with other wireless technologies remains. Fixed LTE broadband in remote areas is an application of choice for LTE where fixed broadband technologies are not available. However, many objects or appliances will rather be connected with shorter range technologies than rely on cellular connectivity. Indeed, why connect your fridge to an LTE network with an associated plan when you already have a broadband connection in your household? Likewise, devices such as smartwatches or e-health devices with sensors embedded for measuring self-use will rather be connected to smartphones with some Bluetooth Smart (Bluetooth Low Energy) than directly to a cellular network

Even more specifically in the M2M segment, LTE is currently not adapted to traditional low energy / narrowband / cost-conscious applications such as security, metering, fleet management. For these applications, work is being carried out to bring some machine type communication (MTC) in the Release 12 of LTE but compliant devices are not expected in the immediate future. This work will lead to the emergence of some kind of narrowband / low energy LTE.

Detailed analyses and viewpoints available in the full report "LTE only", publication date December 2013



6. Small cells and carrier WiFi How HetNets can solve mobile traffic jams efficiently

Mobile network architecture must evolve to handle rapid traffic growth

Mobile traffic represented 2.4% of total Internet traffic in 2010; this share should have climbed to 15% during 2013. The higher data rates induced by LTE networks are tending to fuel higher consumption as in the USA and in South Korea where LTE subscribers consume more than twice the monthly data consumption of 3G subscribers. An increase in spectrum efficiency and availability of new spectrum is enabling mobile operators to raise the capacity of their networks but this is not enough to cope with the fast growth in traffic. Today, the two options for mobile operators to expand capacity are to add small cells and/or implement WiFi offloading.

At the same time, significant developments are taking place in the macro network architecture of Radio Access Networks (RAN):

Fibre To The antenna: in the FTTA, it is remote radio units (RRU) close to the antenna that generate the signal. With this new technique, the RRU and the antenna are linked by copper over a very short distance, leading to a minimal loss of signal.

Cloud RAN is a progression of conventional networks whereby the distribution of standalone base stations has made way for a distributed installation of both baseband units (RRU) and remote radio units (RRU).

The technology of the self-organising network (SON) is one standardised by the 3GPP in its Release 8. It is designed to improve and accelerate the management and the configuration of radio access networks. The use of SON functions is expected to facilitate the integration of small cells in the macro-layer of the mobile networks.

Heterogeneous networks, widely known as HetNets, provide the management and reduction of interference between small cells and macrocells. Small cells can be microcells, picocells, femtocells and there are plans for coordination with WiFi access points.

The software-defined network (SDN) allows abstracting all base stations in a given geographical area so that they form a virtual large-base station composed of a central controller and radio elements. All the remaining physical base stations are then considered as radio elements with minimal logical abilities. These radio elements are then managed by a centralised entity; this will permit to implement optimisation algorithms in a much easier way.

Small cells market

Small cells – now a broader term than the original ‘femtocells’ – were initially used as extensions of the cellular network to provide additional coverage in homes or business locations. Now they are used to provide capacity and are a full part of the mobile network. In this report, the term ‘small cells’ embraces femtocells, picocells and metrocells. The various categories of small cells offer different output power, coverage area and capacities:

Small cell characteristics

Femtocell Enterprise femtocell

Picocell Metrocell

Capacity 4-8 channels 16-32 channels 32-64 channels 32-64 channels

Configuration Automatic Automatic Automatic or manual

Automatic or manual

Power 20 mW 200 mW 200 mW- 2 W 200 mW-2 W

Coverage 10-20 m 10-50 m 50-100 m Up to 1 km

Location Indoors Indoors Indoors/outdoors Outdoors

Source: IDATE, market report "Small Cells & Carrier Wifi", November 2013

Despite significant delays in the small-cell deployments of mobile operators, major carriers such as AT&T, Verizon Wireless, Sprint and T-Mobile in the USA, SoftBank and NTT DOCOMO in Japan, KT in South Korea are all committed to deploying small cells in their mobile networks. According to the Small Cell Forum, 88% of all cells, i.e. macrocells plus small cells in mobile networks, will be small. cells by 2016.



88% of all cells will be small cells by 2016

Source: Small Cell Forum

While femtocells are deployed at a customer’s home and involve some form of payment, picocells and metrocells are deployed by the mobile operators and are fully integrated into the macro-network architecture.

More small-cell deployments are expected this year with outdoor small cells being added by mobile operators. On top of this, close to fourmillion indoor small-cell shipments are expected for 2013. LTE-Advanced should boost small-cell deployments as carriers need to add capacity to their LTE networks, given the rapid take-off of their LTE subscriber base.

The most advanced mobile operators in terms of small-cell development are Verizon Wireless and AT&T in the USA, SoftBank in Japan and KT in South Korea. AT&T plans to integrate WiFi in future small cells as a means of delivering capacity with reduced cost.

Today, the small-cell development drivers and hurdles are:

The main drivers for small cells are: capacity for mobile data traffic growth, potential cost savings, optimisation of spectrum use and development of multi-standard small cells with WiFi integration.

Backhauling is certainly the biggest hurdle: in many places where installing a small cell would be perfect from a coverage perspective, there simply is no backhauling and it would not be at all practical to bring in infrastructure. When optic fibre is not available, microwave links are the option. Other hurdles are uncontrolled interference, on-going standardisation, regulation which has to adapt, business model still to be proven and time-to-market.

Growing synergy between small cells and WiFi

Mobile operators have been progressively adopting WiFi for a few years. The first step for commercial mobile operators was to sign agreements with WiFi aggregators. The second step saw them building their own WiFi hotspot network. The next step will involve more interworking between WiFi and cellular systems. One can already see network manufacturers offering small cells supporting WiFi capability.

Current status of WiFi and small cells and upcoming developments

WiFi Small cells

Indoors Personal WiFi router Residential femtocell, enterprise femtocell

Outdoors Public WiFi access point Outdoor metro cell

Deployment status Already deployed in metropolitan areas and expanding

A few deployments from major operators; major deployments expected in 2014-2015

Main focus Residential offloading on fixed line Hotspot in urban areas

QoS Best effort Controlled by mobile operator

Upcoming developments

Implementation of Hotspot 2.0 (Passpoint): user experience increased with SIM-based authentication

Integration of WiFi access points and traffic management in the cellular network

HetNet management

Installation and backhauling of small cells are issues to be solved by the mobile operator.

Source: IDATE, market report "Small Cells & Carrier Wifi", November 2013

Detailed analyses and viewpoints available in the full report "Small Cells & Carrier WiFi", publication date November 2013

femtocells

macrocells



7. 700 Mhz

A new harmonised frequency band for LTE? The growth of mobile broadband traffic is putting pressure on mobile networks and is driving the need for more spectrum in sub-1 GHz frequency bands for LTE and LTE-Advanced networks. Harmonisation across many geographical areas is necessary as it would enable significant economies of scale for LTE devices and would facilitate international roaming. The first Digital Dividend has already provided new spectrum for the mobile sector. The 700 MHz band in the USA and the 800 MHz band in Europe are today used for commercial LTE services.

First and second Digital Dividends, worldwide

Geographical area UHF band First Digital Dividend Second Digital Dividend

Europe 470-790 MHz 800 MHz band (790-862 MHz)

700 MHz band (703-788 MHz)

Middle East & Africa 470-790 MHz 800 MHz band (790-862 MHz)

700 MHz band (703-788 MHz)

North America 470-698 MHz 700 MHz band (699-798 MHz)

600 MHz band

South America 470-698 MHz 700 MHz band (703-803 MHz)

None

Asia-Pacific 470-698 MHz 700 MHz band (698-806 MHz)

None

Source: IDATE, market report "700Mhz", publication date June 2013

Following the 2012 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-12), the 700 MHz now appears as the most promising option for a harmonised frequency band across Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Further discussions will take place at WRC-15 and technical conditions have to be defined in Europe before then.

The Asia-Pacific region is leading developments in this field and has already defined the ‘APT band plan’ which is likely to be adopted in Latin America, Africa, Middle East and Europe. This plan is not compatible with the US plan, which was defined before the 2008 auction and does not allow any compatibility or roaming for future LTE handsets. The 700 MHz band with the APT band plan could become an harmonised frequency band for LTE worldwide

The 700 MHz band corresponds to the first Digital Dividend in the USA and in Asia-Pacific, whereas it could become the second Digital Dividend in the EMEA region. At WRC-12, African and Middle Eastern countries requested that the 694-790 MHz spectrum be allocated for mobile broadband services.

The APT band plans include two duplexers associated with two separate 30 MHz duplex plans. The first one is compatible with Europe (lower duplexer plan: 703-733 and 758-788 MHz) and the second one (718–748 and 773–803 MHz) has already been selected by some Asian countries such as Japan.

Many observers insist that Europe should not make the same mistake as with the 800 MHz band where the auctions took place without coordination leading to early starts in some countries with a limited range of compatible devices. The harmonisation process in Europe should be clear with precise technical parameters and a realistic roadmap taking into account the timetable of existing broadcasting services. 2020 seems to be a realistic target for the launch of LTE services in the 700 MHz band in Europe but some countries, such as France and perhaps Germany, are already planning to organise auctions as soon as 2015 even though the spectrum will only be available at a later date.

Public safety networks, which want to support mobile broadband services, are also starting to use parts of the 700 MHz band in the USA and the UAE have already allocated spectrum for their use earlier this year. Discussions are under way in Europe on this question.

In the USA, the FCC has suggested an innovative auction format, called ‘incentive auctions’. The objective is to change the use of UHF band (470-700 MHz) starting with the 600 MHz band and to enable new services on a licensed basis. The process would start with a reorganisation of the UHF band and a re-allocation for licensed mobile services, such as 3G and LTE.

Detailed analyses and viewpoints available in the full report "700 Mhz", publication date June 2013



8. Spectrum for mobile broadband

Across the world, regulators are currently establishing plans for the assignment of spectrum for the years ahead in order to meet increasing consumer demand. New frequency bands will be used, together with ‘refarmed’ 2G and 3G bands such as the 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 900 MHz bands.

Potential new frequency bands for mobile broadband in Europe are the following: 700 MHz (703-733 and 758-788 MHz), 1.4 GHz (1452-1492 MHz), 2 GHz MSS (1980-2010 and 2170-2200 MHz), 2.7-2.9 GHz, 3.6-3.8 GHz and 3.8-4.2 GHz.

700 MHz band: the APT plan likely to be adopted in Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa and Latin America. At present, it is considered that the APT 700 MHz plan provides the best solution for harmonising spectrum worldwide for mobile broadband use. Already adopted in Asia-Pacific, this segmentation plan has also been taken up in Central and Latin America (TDD band 44). It provides 2 x 45 MHz in paired spectrum (3GPP band 28) and 100 MHz in unpaired spectrum (3GPP band 44).

Unlicensed bands: although unlicensed spectrum may not enable the primary deployment of LTE technologies in the spectrum, it may provide additional capacity through data offload.

5 GHz: the 5 GHz band is commonly used throughout the world and has the advantage of proposing wide channels up to 160 MHz. Extension of the 5 GHz band is to be discussed at the WRC-15 under item 1.1.

60 GHz spectrum is particularly well suited for very high-speed short-range connections within a single room. Although different technologies have been developed in that frequency band, IEE 802.11ad is poised to become the mainstream technology in the 60 GHz band.

In most countries, mobile broadband spectrum will reach 500-700 MHz in two to three years.

USA, Sweden and the United Kingdom are the most advanced countries in the identification of new spectrum for mobile broadband.

The METIS project was launched in October 2012 to focus on 5G research. It focuses on frequency bands between 9 and 37 GHz.

Detailed analyses and viewpoints available in the full report "Spectrum for mobile broadband", publication date June 2013



IDATE Research Focus on Spectrum

Frédéric PUJOL, Head of Wireless & Spectrum Business Unit, IDATE

The continuous explosion of mobile data traffic is fuelling demand for more mobile spectrum, the world over. With an overview of major trends in radio spectrum management in Europe, the USA and Asia-Pacific, this report reviews the main issues raised in WRC-12, the regulatory environment, spectrum refarming and new bands, and spectrum valuation. It features the spectrum database with details of the regulatory situation and updates on spectrum auctions.

Our Spectrum research accurately tracks spectrum allocations in more than 40 countries, and provides analysis of the key issues that have the power to affect the market environment: technologies, regulation, competition between operators, and other pertinent data & analyses.

Contact us for more information:

Isabel Jimenez

+33 467 144 404 or [email protected]

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Spectrum package 2013includes 3-hour customized research & unmetered analyst support

6 500 M 13300_5

doc Report The 700Mhz band 05/06/2013 34 750 M 13303IN1

xls Dataset World Mobile Spectrum market 30/09/2013 n.r 3 000 M 13303DB

doc Report State of Spectrum worldwide 10/10/2013 57 3 000 M 13303SR

doc Report Spectrum for mobile broadband 21/11/2013 33 1 500 M 13303IN2

doc Report New radio technologies & impacts on spectrum 31/12/2013 24 1 500 M 13303IN3

Spectrum package 2014includes 5-hour customized research & unmetered analyst support

7 500 M 14003

doc+ppt Report Public safety spectrum (indicative title) 01/03/2014 20-40 1 250 M 14313IN1

doc+ppt Report Spectrum for mobile broadband (indicative title) 01/06/2014 20-40 1 250 M 14313IN2

doc+ppt Report Broadcast and mobile spectrum 01/08/2014 40-80 3 000 M 14315M R

xls Dataset World Spectrum 2014 15/09/2014 n.r. 2 500 M 14313DB

ppt Report State of spectrum worldwide 2014 15/09/2014 40-60 2 000 M 14313SR

doc+ppt Report WRC 15: what is at stake? (indicative title) 01/12/2014 20-40 1 250 M 14313IN3

◊World LTE Market

A dedicated team of consultants specialised in analysis of the LTE sector, devoted to meetingthe needs of the broadcasting industry, operators, equipment manufacturers, service providersand content providers.

Our LTE Team◊

Our clients include:NRAs, Public Authorities, vendors and telcos: Arcep • Belgacom • Cisco • CMT • Czech Authority • DeutscheTelekom • French Government • Hungarian Authority • Hitachi • Maroc Telecom • Mitsui • Mobilkom • NEC • NTTDoCoMo • Orange • Sequans • SFR • Spanish Government • Swisscom • TDF • TRA • ...

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Founded in 1977, IDATE has gained a reputation as a leader in tracking telecom, Internetand media markets, thanks to the skills of its teams of specialized analysts. Now, with thesupport of close to 40 member companies – who include many of the digital economy’s mostinfluential players – the newly rebranded DigiWorld Institute has entered into a new stage of itsdevelopment, structured around three main areas of activity:• A European forum open on the world: The DigiWorld Institute will take existing IDATEinitiatives, such as DigiWorld Summit, and the monthly clubs in Paris, London and Brussels,to the next level.• An independent observatory: The DigiWorld Institute will keep a close and continual watch on digital world industries, collect relevant data and provide benchmark analyses on market developments and innovations in the telecom, Internet andmedia sectors – through its DigiWorld Yearbook and the DigiWorld Economic Journal, along with its comprehensive collection of market reports and market watch services that are published and made available online throughout the year.• Time-tested analysis and consultancy solutions: The DigiWorld Institute established its credibility and independence bybuilding multi-disciplinary teams of economists and engineers who regularly perform bespoke research and analysis on behalf of top-flight industry players and public authorities. We have also built a solid reputation in managing think tanks on the outstanding deve-lopments that are shaping the industry’s future, drawing on the skills and knowledge of our members, our teams and outside experts.

◊ IDATE becomes the DigiWorld Institute

Jeremy [email protected]: +33 (0)467 144 488

Sales contact:

Frédéric Pujol joined the DigiWorld Institute by IDATE in November 1992. As head of the MobileBroadband Practice, he is responsible for coordinating mobile industry forecasting and technical-economic analysis reports. Previously, Frédéric acquired solid experience in mobile network architecture while working for the France Telecom Group (Sofrecom, Telesystems). He holds a post-graduate degree in engineering from ISEN (Institut Supérieur d'Electronique du Nord, Lille, 1986),where he majored in Telecommunications, and from CITCOM (Centre d'Ingénierie des Technologiesde la Communication, Paris, 1987), where he majored in Network Architecture.

Frédéric PUJOL Radio Technologies & SpectrumPractice [email protected]+33(0)467 144 450

Basile CARLEMobile Devices

Christoph PENNINGSRegulatoryaspects

Carole MANEROServices, Cost & Business Models

Soichi NAKAJIMAAsia coverage

Tiana RAMAHANDRYTelecomEquipment

Documents

LTE_WhitePaper2014