Low-cost clean energy to spark economic growth and solve the climate/energy/poverty crises. Robert...
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Low-cost clean energy to spark economic growth and solve the climate/energy/poverty crises. Robert Hargraves OSU Sept 19, 2013 Liquid fuel nuclear reactors:
low-cost clean energy to spark economic growth and solve the
climate/energy/poverty crises. Robert Hargraves OSU Sept 19, 2013
Liquid fuel nuclear reactors:
Slide 2
Government debts are increasing. % debt / GDP
Slide 3
Risks Widespread default and deflation Runaway inflation Severe
GDP contraction Wealth destruction Collapse of welfare state The
debt crisis has severe risks.
Slide 4
Risks Widespread default and deflation Runaway inflation Severe
GDP contraction Wealth destruction Collapse of welfare state
Solutions Austerity? More deficit spending? Devaluation export
stimulus? (courtesy Simon Irish, SWH Capital) Several solutions are
unattractive.
Slide 5
Risks Widespread default and deflation Runaway inflation Severe
GDP contraction Wealth destruction Collapse of welfare state
Solutions Austerity? More deficit spending? Devaluation export
stimulus? Productivity growth! (courtesy Simon Irish, SWH Capital)
Increase productivity to grow out of debt crisis
Slide 6
Risks Widespread default and deflation Runaway inflation Severe
GDP contraction Wealth destruction Collapse of welfare state
Solutions Austerity? More deficit spending? Devaluation export
stimulus? Productivity growth! Leverage cheap energy! Increase
productivity to grow out of debt crisis, with cheap energy.
Slide 7
Global warming, overpopulation, and resources competition are
increasing.
Slide 8
Coal emissions cause 13,000 deaths per year in the US
alone.
Slide 9
Melted glaciers cut summer water.
Slide 10
Prosperity stabilizes population.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/rankorderguide.html
GDP per capita Children per woman 82 nations with populations over
10 million. Stable replacement rate
Slide 11
Prosperity stabilizes population.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/rankorderguide.html
GDP per capita Children per woman 82 nations with populations over
10 million. Stable replacement rate Prosperity
Slide 12
Prosperity depends on energy.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2042rank.html
GDP per capita Annual kWh per capita Nations with populations over
10 million.
Slide 13
Prosperity depends on cheap energy. $1 more energy creates $5
more GDP.
Slide 14
Coal burning is increasing sharply in developing nations.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html
Slide 15
http://pub1.chinadaily.com.cn/cdpdf/us/download.shtml?c=32073
China argues its cumulative greenhouse gas emissions are low.
1,125.6 tons per person 76.0 tons per person
Slide 16
Economics trumps politics.
Slide 17
We need clean energy cheaper than coal. Nations resist carbon
taxes. Kyoto failed; Copenhagen failed; Tianjin failed; Cancun
failed: Bangkok failed; Bonn failed; Panama failed; Durban
failed.
Slide 18
1758 GW 434 GW 5520 GW Rest of world US Scenario US cuts
electricity use in half. All nations achieve this use. 217 GW
Conservation wont stop growth.
Slide 19
We need clean energy cheaper than coal.
Slide 20
Coal electricity costs 5.6 cents/kWh. Advanced, efficient coal
plant capital cost: $2.8/watt Capital cost recovery @ 8% over 40
years, run at 90% capacity: 2.8 cents/kWh Integrated gasification
combined cycle (IGCC) capital cost, even without carbon capture:
$4.76/watt
Slide 21
Natural gas electricity: 4.8 cents/kWh. Comb Cycle Gas Turbine
60% efficient $1.00/watt Fuel Cost $ 5 / million BTU 3.7 cents/kWh
if NG @ $ 3 / million BTU 7.3 cents/kWh if NG Combustion Turbine
30% efficient
Slide 22
Wind electricity costs 18.4 cents/kWh. Capital cost examples
$2.44/watt EIA $7.00/watt Deepwater Wind $5.80/watt Cape Wind
Capacity factor: 30% Cape Wind cost to utility 16 to 24
cents/kWh
Biomass electricity costs 9.7 cents/kWh. Capital cost examples
Nacogdoches TX $5.00/watt Berlin NH $3.67/watt Wood fuel cost
examples Burlington VT, $15-30/ton Worchester MA, $22-34/ton
Springfield NH, $28/ton
Slide 25
Green energy is not cheaper than coal. Electricity costs,
cents/kWh
Slide 26
Carbon intensity continues unabated. Green doesnt work. Can
nuclear?
Slide 27
Weinberg had proposed the PWR for naval propulsion to
Rickover's team.
Slide 28
Rickover's drive, Nautilus submarine, and Shippingport power
plant 100 US PWRs.
Slide 29
Can yesterdays solid fuel nuclear reactors compete with natural
gas? Kewaunee shut down May 2013. $4/MBTU natural gas can make 4.3
cent/kWh electricity.
Slide 30
Can yesterdays solid fuel nuclear reactors compete with natural
gas? Vermont Yankee shutting down 4 th quarter 2014.
Slide 31
Can the new Westinghouse AP1000 provide energy cheaper than
coal? Georgia Vogtle plant costs $16 billion for 2.2 GW ($6.4/watt)
capital cost recovery = 6.4 cents/kWh + fuel and ops 8.1
cents/kWh
Slide 32
AP1000 energy is not cheaper than coal. Electricity costs,
cents/kWh
Slide 33
Slide 34
SpaceX focused on cost innovation. Situation Shuttle
complexity. 1970s technology. SpaceX Falcon 1 $443 million NASA
estimate $1.4 to 4 billion. Innovation Entirely new rocket engine.
Small teams, low overhead. First flight after 6 years.
Slide 35
Can liquid fuel reactors provide energy cost innovation?
Slide 36
Fermi's 1944 liquid fuel reactor measured U-235 critical mass.
uranyl sulfate in water all the world's U-235 ! beryllium oxide
neutron reflector
http://www.fas.org/sgp/othergov/doe/lanl/pubs/00416628.pdf
Slide 37
The aqueous reactor at Oak Ridge generated 140 kW in 1953. At
Oak Ridge in 1953, Richard Engel adds 300 g of uranium in 500 ml of
heavy water to generate electric power for 2 months, doing the work
of 1,000 tons of coal.
Slide 38
Weinberg and Oak Ridge developed the first molten salt nuclear
reactor in 1954. 860 C Red hot! 100 hours 2.5 MW
Slide 39
The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment ran 1965-1969. Salt flowed
through channels in this graphite core.
Slide 40
Th-232, U-238, and U-235 can provide energy in a nuclear
reactor.
Slide 41
Waste separator Th-232 U-235 Th-232 n n Heat exchanger Salt
DMSR uses fertile Th-232, U-238, and fissile U-235 feeds. Fissile
U-235 denatured with U-238 is highly proliferation resistant. U-233
U-235 and U- 238 Xe+Kr+Nobles Salt changed after U-238 and soluble
FPs build up. Turbine and generator U-238 U-233 n n Pu-239
Slide 42
DMSRs can provide energy cheaper than coal. Electricity costs,
cents/kWh Why?
Slide 43
MSR cost estimates: ~ $2/watt. EstimateYear$/watt2012 $/watt
Sargent & Lundy19620.654.95 Sargent &.. ORNL
TM-106019650.151.09 Kasten, MOSEL reactor19650.211.53
ORNL-399619660.241.62 McNeese et al, ORNL-501819740.723.36 Engel et
al, ORNL TM720719780.662.33 Moir20001.582.11
Slide 44
Liquid fuel contributes to low cost. Molten fluoride salt eg
LiF BeF 2 Fissile UF 4 dissolved in the salt Excellent heat
transfer Atmospheric pressure liquid Key technology -- liquid fuel
form!
Slide 45
Walk-away-safe DMSR reduces defense-in-depth systems costs.
Freeze plug Stable reactivity. No propulsive pressure. Melting
freeze plug dumps salt to tank. Salt from rupture or leak will
solidify.
Slide 46
1.4 m diameter LOW MASS LOW COST. The small Fireball MSR was to
fly on an airplane.
Slide 47
DMSR needs no costly 160-atmosphere pressure vessel and
containment dome. Westinghouse announces successful setting of
AP1000 containment vessel top head at China's Haiyang Unit 1
Placement of the CVTH, which weighs approximately 659 tons, was
completed at 9:36 a.m., China Time, on March 29.
Slide 48
High-temp closed-cycle Brayton turbine raises power conversion
efficiency. Halving rejected heat halves water use
Slide 49
https://www.ornl.gov/fhr/presentations/Forsberg.pdf Open-air
Brayton-cycle needs no costly water cooling. (Charles Forsberg at
ORNL, 2010)
Slide 50
http://web.mit.edu/jessiek/MacData/afs.course.lockers/22/22.33/www/dostal.pdf
Compact supercritical CO 2 turbines may be even less costly.
Slide 51
Thorium fuel is plentiful and inexpensive.
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/thorium/690798.pdf
500 tons, entire US, 1 year Millions of tons worldwide $300,000 per
ton 1 ton, 1 city, 1 GW-year dense, silvery, m, 1 ton thorium
sphere
Slide 52
Boeing factories can produce a $200 million aircraft every
day.
Slide 53
The learning curve reduces costs. 10% learning ratio
Slide 54
One-a-day production of 100 MW DMSRs is a $70 billion per year
industry. 201320182023 DevelopScale upProduce Commercialize
Export
Slide 55
Check global warming.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table63.xls Install
one 100 MW DMSR each day, worldwide, to replace all coal power.
20232061 10 billion tons CO 2 Annual emissions from world coal
power plants 1400 GWY
Slide 56
Produce hydrogen with DMSR. Dissociate water with sulfur-iodine
or copper-chlorine cycle.
Slide 57
The Honda Clarity uses a hydrogen fuel cell to power an
electric motor.
Slide 58
MethanolDimethyl etherAmmoniaHydrogen 1017 1821 Energy density
(mega joules per liter) H2H2 NH 3 CH 3 OH H 3 COCH 3 Combining H 2
with N or C makes energy-dense liquid vehicle fuels.
Slide 59
Internal combustion engines can run with ammonia fuel.
Marangoni Toyota G86 Eco Explorer 180 km on 30 litres NH3 @ $0.20
~19 miles/$
Slide 60
Methanol Dimethyl ether CH 3 OH H 3 COCH 3 Gasoline Whither the
C for synthetic petrofuels?
Slide 61
Capturing CO 2 from air is feasible with cheap energy.
http://www.lanl.gov/news/newsbulletin/pdf/Green_Freedom_Overview.pdfhttp://data.tour-solaire.fr/Optimized-Carbon-Capture%20RKR%20final.pps
Slide 62
http://ecen.com/eee57/eee57e/carbon_content_in_biomass_fuel.htm
Farming produces 3 tons of dry biomass per acre-yr. Dont burn!
Hydrogenate it!1.7 T biomass 1 T fuel. Hydrocarbon fuels can be
synthesized from bio-carbon sources. World cattle dung of 2.5 GT
could make 1.5 GT fuel. Sewers collect 100 g hydrocarbons
/person/day.
Slide 63
$1 more energy creates $5 more GDP.
Slide 64
Low cost is crucial to success. Electricity costs,
cents/kWh
Slide 65
Opponents will strive to increase costs. Electricity costs,
cents/kWh
Slide 66
Defer nice-to-have features until DMSR technology is
economically successful. Less transuranic waste Burn LWR waste No
uranium enrichment Energy independence He power conversion
Slide 67
Defer nice-to-have features until DMSR technology is
economically successful. Load following Heat co-generation
Desalination Waterless cooling Continuous fission product removal
Less transuranic waste Burn LWR waste No uranium enrichment Energy
independence He power conversion
China is undertaking thorium MSR engineering and development.
Jiang Mianheng (CAS), Xu Hongjie (SINAP), Robert Hargraves $350
million 5 years initial phase 400 people, half under age 30 Molten
salt cooled PBR 2017 Molten salt fueled reactor 2020
Slide 70
US rules prohibit DMSR economics. Prescriptive, specific to
LWRs No risk-informed, performance-based, technology-neutral
regulation No cost/benefit analysis NQA-1 broad TerraPower left for
China 3 of 4 MSR ventures outside US NRC
Slide 71
US rules prohibit DMSR economics. Prescriptive, specific to
LWRs No risk-informed, performance-based, technology-neutral
regulation No cost/benefit analysis NQA-1 broad TerraPower left for
China 3 of 4 MSR ventures outside US Linear No-threshold Theory
pervades all regs. Evidence contradicts LNT. ALARA (as low as
reasonably achievable) python Collective dose assumes incorrect
LNT. Occupational limit: 50 mSv EPA public limit: well under 1
mSv/year IAEA evacuation limit: 200 mSv/year NRC EPA
Slide 72
low-cost clean energy to spark economic growth and solve the
climate/energy/poverty crises. Robert Hargraves OSU Sept 19, 2013
Liquid fuel nuclear reactors:
