Low Carbon Asia: Visions and Actions2050.nies.go.jp/cop/cop15/presentation/S1_KAINUMA_FUJINO... · 2015-02-02 · 1 Mikiko Kainuma (NIES, Japan), P.R. Shukla (IIM, India), Kejun Jiang

1

Mikiko Kainuma (NIES, Japan), P.R. Shukla (IIM, India),

Kejun Jiang (ERI, China) and Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)

Scenarios for China, India, Japan and other Asian Countries

Low Carbon Asia:Low Carbon Asia:Visions and ActionsVisions and Actions

10 December 2009COP15 and CMP5 Side Event

Bella Center, Copenhagen

Funded by Ministry of Environment, Japan and NIES

GHG emission

s pe

r capita

High CarbonLocked in Society

Low Carbon Locked in Society

Development of Asia LCS Scenarios

Policy Packages for Asia LCS

Low Carbon Society

Backcasting

Leapfrog‐Development

How to reach to Low Carbon Society in Asia ?

High Carbon Locked‐in type Development

Climate catastrophe:Significant Damage to Economy and Eco‐ System

Time

(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(2) Quantifying future LCS visions(3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting

3

Low-Carbon Scenarios forcountries and sub-countries in Asian

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS

Asian Modeling Meeting at Tsukuba on 17-18 September 2009

14th AIM International Workshop on 14-15 February 2009

AIM Training Workshop on 31 August - 11 September 2009

Asia Modeling Network

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Modeling Alternate Development Perspectives

Carbon Market

Technologies

Energy Resources

Universal Participation

Market Structure/ Rules

Allocation of Rights

Modify Preferences

Competition/ Trade

Energy-Mix Mandates

Tech Transfer

Cooperative R&D

Remove Market Barriers

TargetInterventionsDriversAim

Forecasting

Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss

Global Greenhouse Gas

Concentration Stabilization

Carbon Market

Technologies

Energy Resources

Universal Participation

Market Structure/ Rules

Allocation of Rights

Modify Preferences

Competition/ Trade

Energy-Mix Mandates

Tech Transfer

Cooperative R&D

Remove Market Barriers

TargetInterventionsDriversAim

Forecasting

Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss

Global Greenhouse Gas

Concentration Stabilization

Conventional Climate Centric Paradigm

Sustainable Development and Climate Paradigm

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability

National Socio-economic

Objectives and Targets

Global Climate Change


TargetsInterventionsDriversAim

Back-casting

Technological

Social/Institutional

Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co -benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co -benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision


Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

Stabilization Scenarios with Global Targets

Baseline Paradigm

StabilizationTargets

Scenarios

Geography Level

2.66.0 5.0 Radiative Forcing Target W/m2

Global Regional National

4.5 2.66.0 5.0 4.5

Global Global Regional NationalGlobalLocal Local

Conventional Sustainability

Δt 4 to 6OC Δt 3 to 5OC

Δt 3OC

Δt 2OC


National Analysis: MARKAL & End-Use Models

From 2005-2050:Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%Annual Population Growth: 0.9%

Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005Economy 23 timesPopulation 1.56 times

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mto

e

Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass

Energy

Base Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population

Carbon Emissions

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Global Stabilization Target: 2OC


Mitigation Technology OptionsConventional Approach: transition with conventional path and carbon price

• High Carbon Price• Climate Focused Technology Push• Top-down/Supply-side actions

Sustainability Approach: aligning climate and sustainable development actions

• Low Carbon Price• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions• Behavioural change• Diverse Technology portfolio

Technology Co-operation Areas• Energy Efficiency• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro• Nuclear/CCS

Technology Co-operation Areas• Transport Infrastructure Technologies• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy• Process Technologies• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Other

CCS

Device EfficiencyNuclear

Renewable

Fossil Switch

Emissions (for 2O Target)

Baseline Emissions

Carbon Price ($) 20 87 136 20052

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

CCSTransport Reduced ConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsDevice Efficiency

Renewable Energy

Building

Fossil Switch

Emissions (for 2O Target)

Carbon Price ($) 15 55 100 11728


AMC (Old

boundary)

AMC (New

boundary)

Low Carbon Scenario: AhmedabadAhmedabad (2009) Pop 5.5 Mil

Passenger Transport Sector

024

68

10

121416

Inde

x 20

05 =

1

Passenger Demand

Energy Demand

GHG Emissions

2005 2035 BAU 2035 SS

Industry Sector

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Inde

x 20

05 =

1

Output (Bn INR) Energy Demand GHG Emissions

2005 2035 BAU 2035 SS

10.2

61.1

20.4

8.6

15.4

6.32.44.33.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS

GH

G E

mis

sion

s/re

duct

ions

(mt-

C02

)

Transport EfficiencyIndustry EfficiencyBuilding EfficiencyFuel Switch

Energy Service demand

Coal + CCS

Emissions

Mitigation Contributions

67%


2OC Sustainibility Scenario

Base Scenario0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pric

e (U

S $/

tCO

2)

2OC Conventional Mitigation Scenario

Carbon Price

Primary Energy and Carbon Price

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

Dem

and

(Mto

e)

Base

LCS_CT

LCS_SS

Total Energy Demand

(Mtoe )

Base 2825

LCS_CT 2945 LCS_SS 2207

Energy Mix in 2050

Technology learning curve

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2005 2020 2030 2050Year

Inde

x, 2

005=

1

HydrateBiomass-EthanolIGCCIGCC-Fuel CellHydrogen VehiclePoly-GenerationSolar Thermal PowerPV4th Generation NuclearOff Shore WindOn Shore WindBiomass PowerAdvanced NGCC

28 key technologies in the enhanced low carbon scenario in China

No. Sector Technology Description Note1 High energy

efficiencyequipment

High efficiency furnace,kiln, waste heat recoverysystem, high efficiencyprocess technologies,advanced electric motor

Nearly inmarket

2 New manufactureprocess technologyfor cement and steel

3 CCS In cement, steel making,refinery, ethylenemanufacture

4 Super high efficiencydiesel vehicle

Advanced diesel hybridengine

5 Electric car6 Fuel cell car7 High efficiency

aircraft30% higher energyefficiency

8 Bio‐fuel aircraft9 Super high efficiency

air‐conditionerWith COP>7

10 LED lighting11 In house renewable

energy systemSolar PV/Wind/Solar hotwater and space heating

12 Heat pumps Mature13 High isolation

buildingMature

14 High efficiencyelectric appliance

Maturebefore 2030

15 IGCC/Poly‐Generation

With efficiency above 55%

16 IGCC/Fuel cell With efficiency above 60%17 On shore Wind Mature18 Off shore wind Mature

before 202019 Solar PV20 Solar Thermal21 4th Generation

Nuclear22 Advanced NGCC With efficiency above 65%23 Biomass IGCC24 CCS in power

generation25 Second generation

bio‐ethanol26 Bio‐diesel Vehicles, ships, vessels27 Grid Smart grid28 Circulating

tecnologiesRecycle, reuse,reducing materialuse

Alternative fuels

Powergeneration

Building

Transport

Industrytechnology

Technology Roadmap

Ultra performance air-conditioning

Popularization Rate: 100%

Advanced Solar Water heater/ heating

Popularization Rate: 45%, of all the suitable construction

Investment Demand of Energy Industry

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

Year

A hundred million

Base scenario

Policy scenario

15

Technology roadmap and perspective

• Technology in sight could lead us to low carbon future(2℃ target )

• If there is new technology coming out, there will be more promising future, such as bio-technologies, geothermal technologies, and space technologies etc.

Seconday Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

Industrial ResidentialCommercial

Trans. Prv.Trans. Frg.

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2000(Actual)

2050(Scenario A)

2050(Scenario B)

Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.

Decrease ofenergy demand

Trans. Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans. Frg.: Transportation (Freight)

40% demand reductions

Coal Oil Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Solar and Wind

100 200 300 400 500 600

2000(Actural)

2050(Scenario A)

2050(Scenario B)

Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind

low-carbon energy

70% CO2 cutby 2050

JapanJapan

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2em

ission

s [M

tC]

-70% to 1990

1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment

2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances

3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food

4. Sustainable Building Materials5. Environmentally Enlightened

Business and Industry6. Swift and Smooth Logistics7. Pedestrian Friendly City

Design8. Low-Carbon Electricity9. Local Renewable Resources

for Local Demand10. Next Generation Fuels11. Labeling to Encourage Smart

and Rational Choices12. Low-Carbon Society

Leadership

A Dozen Actions

Residential/commercial

Industrial

Transportation

Energysupply

Cross-sector

A dozen actions make it possibleto reduce 70% CO2 emissions by 2050

Japan

JapanJapan

18

‐8

‐6

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Add

itiona

l investm

ent [Tril. JP

Y]

Ene: Fuel savingEne: Additional fixed investmentTrp: Fuel savingTrp: Additional fixed investmentInd: Fuel savingInd: Additional fixed investmentRes: Fuel savingRes: Additional fixed investmentTotal

Scenario AEarly Investmentcan reduce cost and enhance energy efficiencyof countermeasures

and gain multi-benefits e.g. energy securitybusiness powercomfortable live spacewalkable city, happy life!

Backcasting model can show optimized pathways towards LCS

JapanJapan

Asian LCS Study (2009) 19

Environmental targets for 2030Reduction of GHG emissions by halfReduction of pollutant load flows into the lake by half for the conservation of water qualityReduction of landfill waste by 75%

Shiga prefecture shows visions and roadmaps for 50% CO2 reductions by 2030

ShigaShiga

Japan LCS research project and Japanese CC policy

1. Feb 13th 2007, Interim Report “Japan Scenarios torwards Low-Carbon Society (LCS) -Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level-”May 24th 2007 Former Prime Minister Abe launched “Cool Earth 50”to reduce 50% GHG emissions by 2050June 9th 2008 Former Prime Minister Fukuda set the target of Japanese CO2 emissions reduction by 60-80% in 2050

2. May 22nd 2008, Interim Report “Dozen Actions towards LCSs”July 29th 2008 Japanese government set “Action Plan for Achieving a Low-carbon Society”

3. April 2009, The Mid-term Target Committee, “six options for 2020”(including 7%, 15%, 25% reduction compared as 1990 level)September 22nd 2009, New Prime Minister Hatoyama set the year of 2020 target as 25%.

JapanJapan

New Japan’s Mid-term Target

Japan’s mid-term target was announced by New Prime Minister Hatoyama on September 22nd, 2009. The target is

25 percent reduction from the 1990 level by 2020

*Japan’s Kyoto target (6% reduction) includes carbon sinks and credits through the Kyoto mechanisms.

New Prime MinisterHatoyama 鳩山由紀夫

New Mid-term target

Old Mid-term target Kyoto target

Target Year 2020 2020 2008 - 2012

Base Year 1990 2005(1990) 1990

Domestic reductionTotally

25%

15(8)% 0.6%

Carbon sinks - 3.8%

Credits - 1.6%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2em

ission

s [M

tC]

2050, 80% in 2050

Japanese Emissions Targets towards 2050

Jump

Step25% in 2020(incl. credit?）

Hop Kyoto Protocolduring 2008-2012 (Sink 3.8%, credit 1.6 %)

Japan

JapanJapan

Japanese Lessons

Low-CarbonAsia

NIES

Low-Carbon Asia: Scenarios and Insights

Japan, India, Ahmedabad, Jilin, Iskandar, Shiga, Kyoto

AIM, IIM, ERI, UTM, LBERI, MHIR, KU, NIES

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/

Supplement

25

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt‐C

CO2 Emission in China

Baseline

Policy

ELC

27

Power Capacity by technologies in China, low energy scenario

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

10M

WHydroNuclearWind off shoreWind on shoreBiomass IGCCBiomass DirectSolar ThermalSolar PVOilNGCCN.GasPFBCIGCC-Fuel CellIGCC-68%IGCC-20%US-CriticalSuper CriticalLarge Coal UnitSamll Coal

Documents

Low Carbon Asia: Visions and Actions2050.nies.go.jp/cop/cop15/presentation/S1_KAINUMA_FUJINO... · 2015-02-02 · 1 Mikiko Kainuma (NIES, Japan), P.R. Shukla (IIM, India), Kejun Jiang