Lopez MA 276 MA 276: Sports and statistics Lecture 1: What is sports and statistics? 0 Lopez MA 276 What is statistics? i)Bad definition: ii) Better definition: Science of learning from data Marie Davidian 1 Lopez MA 276 What is statistics in sports? Science of learning from data in sports 1) Wrangle & visualize data 2) Statistical tool - Ex: Regression, t-test, etc 3) Measure uncertainty - Practical vs. statistical significance 4) Communicate results - Appropriate generalizability What am I missing? 2 Lopez MA 276 Wrangle data 3 Start with: Lopez MA 276 Wrangle data 4 End with: Lopez MA 276 Visualizing data 5 Lopez MA 276 Visualizing data 6forwards-firing-away-corners/ Lopez MA 276 Visualizing data 7quarterbacks/ Lopez MA 276 Statistical tool 8 Lopez MA 276 Statistical tool 9 Lopez MA 276 Statistical tool 10football/ /patriots-have-no-need-for-probability- win-coin-flip-at-impossible-clip Lopez MA 276 Statistical tool, account for uncertainty 11 Lopez MA Statistical tool, account for uncertaintythe-war-on-nfl-kickers/ Lopez MA Statistical tool, account for uncertainty Lopez MA 276 Significance: statistical? practical? 14 Lopez MA 276 Recall: Whats a p-value? 15 Lopez MA 276 Generalizability? Who? Where? When? 16 Lopez MA 276 Recall: Population vs. sample 17 Lopez MA 276 Rough history of statistics in sports 18 Jamesian era (1970s 2004ish) - Hey, you can apply statistics to sports! Modern era (2004ish current) - Get more data, do cool stuff - Get more data, do really cool stuff, get hired - Nomenclature change to a more sexier sports analytics Future (Current - ????) - Holy shit, we have too much data Lopez MA 276 Jamesian era 19 -Bill James Baseball Abstract, Steins Paradox in Statistics 1977, Efron and Morris -On the optimal time to pull the goalie 1976, Morrisonn -Operations research in football Carter & Machol, 1971 Lopez MA 276 Jamesian era 20 Lopez MA 276 Modern era 21 Get more data, do cool stuff Lopez MA 276 Modern era 22 Sports and statistics becomes sports analytics Lopez MA 276 Modern era 23 Where do we stand? One mans opinion (mine) Lopez MA 276 Future era 24 Holy shit, we have too much data Lopez MA 276 Future era 25 Holy shit, we have too much data Lopez MA 276 Where do we fit in? 26 Course Goals (from syllabus): -Gain an understanding of how statistical tools have been applied in the sports world -Learn advanced methods for analysis, visualization, and implementation -Gain familiarity with nonparametric and parametric statistical tools -Contrast in-sample versus out-of-sample statistics with respect to sports