Looking Into the Crystal BallCCS- Where are we in 2020?

Nils A. Røkke, SINTEF

British-Norwegian CCS workshop April 23, 2008, London

Outline

Technology Potentials Market drivers and boundary conditions 2020 case Transport and storage Summary and conclusions

Schematic diagram of possible CCS systems

SRCCS Figure TS-1

No option

CO2 capture, transport and storage – main routes

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

No Cap

ture

132

8

Amine

132

8

Oxyfu

el 13

28

ATR 132

8

CC-CLC

, 90

0°C

No ca

ptur

e 14

28

Amine

142

8

Oxyfu

el 14

28

ATR 142

8

Single

rehe

at C

C-CLC

, 100

0°C

No ca

ptur

e 15

28

Amine

152

8

Oxyfu

el 15

28

ATR 152

8

Double

rehe

at C

C-CLC

, 120

0°C

5

Net plant efficiencies of the natural gas-fired cycles

TCCS4:Jordal

BIGCO2 project

Net plant efficiencies of coal fired cycles

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Lignite PC LigniteOxy-Fuel

LigniteZEIGCC

Bit.Coal-PC

Bit.CoalPost-C

Bit.CoalOxy-Fu

Bit. Coal-ZEIGCC

Bit.Coal-CLC

Net

eff

icie

ncy

(%

LH

V)

Status for capture technologies- potential

HighTechnology Coal Gas Coal Gas Medium-HighPost-C Medium-LowZEIGCC N/A N/A LowZEIRCC N/A N/AOxy-fuelCLC

Ready for deployment Development Potential

HighTechnology Coal Gas Coal Gas Medium-HighPost-C Medium-LowZEIGCC N/A N/A LowZEIRCC N/A N/AOxy-fuelCLC

We need to do both efficiency improvements and smarter plants, natural gas case

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7

Eff.:48.9%

Eff.:55%

Quota:25€/ton

Quota: 50€/ton

c€/kWh

Investment € Billion

So where will we be in 2020?

Project mapping, capture technology vs storage

Project Timeline – R&D, Demo and Full Scale

CCS development so far All full scale plants before 2012 are gas separation/LNG

Pilot/demo ramp-up 2005-2010

Full scale ramp-up from 2013-2015

R&D projects have paved the ground

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

R&D projects

Pilot/Demo

Full scale

Accumulated full scale

Accumulated pilots

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

R&D projects

Pilot/Demo

Full scale

Accumulated full scale

Expon. (Accumulated full scale)

CCS by 2020 and beyond

Likely to see 10’s of plants by 2020 in operation

Likely to see 50-150 plants by 2030

Extrapolated

High

Low

CCS as mitigation tool, how much do we need to manage by 2100?

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

Year

Acc

umul

ated

cap

ture

d C

O2

[Gto

n]

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Cap

ture

d C

O2

per

year

(G

ton/

yr)

Accumulated capture of CO2

Captured CO2/yr

CCS deployment – How many plants in the future?

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

Year

CC

S pl

ants

Accumulated # plants

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Year

CC

S pl

ants

Accumulated # plants

Coal: 1000 MW

Based on IPCC- 1000 Gton by 2100

IEA-ETP 2005: 12Gt by 2030

More optimistic: 100 by 2020, 260 by 2030

Order of Magnitude Investments in CCS by 2100

Based on IEA og IPCC we will need:– ~5000 CCS plants for CO2 capture and storage

Order of magnitude investment estimate (CCS only – not power plant) :

– 2300 Billion £ (+100%, -40%)

Imagine having a 1% share?

81,8 %

15,8 %

2,3 %0,1 %

Conventional Thermal

Hydroelectric

Nuclear

Other

By 2004:

Development pace - Chinese el power

Electricity Generation in China by Type, 1994-2004

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

TW

h

Conventional Thermal Hydroelectric Nuclear

Source: EIA International Energy Annual

1000.6 TWh pa over 10 years (1994-2004)

• 2000-2004: 127 GWe *• 2005: 63 GWe **• 2006: 102 GWe ***• 2007: 95 GWe (UBS prognosis)

*** • Up to 2020: Another 400-450 GW *Source: * Guodon Sun: “Advanced Coal Technolgies in a Sustainable Energy System. Preparing and Preserving the Appropriate Technological

Options in China”, Workshop Report from Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 19-20 Sep 2005.** Li Zheng, Tsinghua University, Beijing*** The Wall Street Journal, June 15-17, 2007

Capacity growth:

3.000

Ref. ***

Infrastructure – transport of CO2

Up to now limited experience except from US CO2 onshore flooding networks (Permian Basin)

– Network in the Netherlands for greenhouse

CO2 fertilisation (OCAP network)

– 5600 km CO2 EOR pipeines in the US– Snøhvit (150 km pipeline to offshore storage)

By 2020– Some large scale developments have taken

place but mostly 1-1 or 2-1 solutions (source-sink)– Infrastructure has so far been provided in

governmental led initiatives/funding (less EOR)

– CO2 transport has become a more widespread commercial buisness

– Widely acknowledged that CO2 transport has more to it than rules of thumb for humidity and hydrate formation, trace species influence on thermodynamic properties and heat transfer in well head/pipeline knowledge has been gained

Storage – the ultimate quest

New EU directives proposal 2008 : positive for future developments; inclusion in quota system, access, etc.

North Sea likely to have storage from power plant operations in place

On-shore, critical issue acceptance, pilots in operation, some large scale experiences gained

EOR operations will take place given the oil price interval we now have seen

Overarching: Storage capacity worldwide and source-sink matching

– Crucial to find, evaluate and qualify secure storage possibilities in for instance Asia and India

Summary

CCS is crucial for achieving reduction targets of greenhouse gases

By 2020 we will see some 10’s of plants and likely to see 100’s by 2030

Early movers within the area are all gas separation projects or EOR

Pilots are ramping up now Full scale ramps-up from 2012 The framework is underway and will be in place by 2010-

12 to allow more robust investment decisions Huge market- drivers are different than other products R&DD instrumental in achieving lower costs and

widespread deployment