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LOICZ II
The next Generation of Global Coastal Change Science
Land-Ocean interactions across multiple interfaces
2003 2012
A core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and the
International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change
G. Flöser, LOICZ European Node,
GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany
What is / was LOICZ?
• LOICZ: Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone
• Core Project of IGBP• Phase I 1993-2002 concluded, Springer book
available June ‘05. More than 20 scientific Reports.
• Aim: “to determine … the dynamic nature of interaction between land, ocean and atmosphere and how changes in various components of the Earth system are affecting coastal zones …”.
• key biogeochemical features of global coastal seas
• 2300 scientists in 130 countries• International Project Office in Texel, The
Netherlands (hosted by NIOZ), 2 officers
Structure of International Global Change Research
IGBPDIVERSITAS WCRPIHDP
LOICZ
Earth System Science Partnership
LOICZ wants to initiate, coordinate and summarize coastal research worldwide
GEWEX
BALTEX
The Coastal Zone: Society’s Edge as defined by elevation (+200 to +100 to -100 to –200 m)
A spatial and temporal edge:• high gradients/variability (e.g. climatic) / Biodiversity• major biogeochemical processes• Catchment - Shelf as a unit• > 50% of human population
A resource sustainability edge: • 25 % biological Productivity; • 90 % global Fishery,• Ecosyst. services: ~$17.5 trillion (Global ES ~$33.3 trillion)
< of land surface
Wilson et al in prep.
Coastal Change in the “Anthropocene”
• Climatic & Environmental Change (sea level, ocean currents, climate patterns, CO2, atmospheric deposition and cycles)
• Human pressure & use(multiple effects on quality & quantity of resource, products & amenities, across scales and regions)
ZONE 8 (SE Atlantic Coast, Argentina/Patagonia)
Driver Major CoastalPressure
PresentPressure Status
TrendExpectation
Damming/Diversion
Erosion/Sedimentation Major
Agriculture Eutrophication/Pollution
Medium
Deforestation Erosion/Sedimentation Medium Mining Erosion/Pollution Low
ZONE 7 (Wider La Plata Atlantic Coast, SE Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina)
Driver Major CoastalPressure
PresentPressure Status
TrendExpectation
Urbanization Eutrophication Major Damming/Diversion
Erosion/Sedimentation Major
Industrialization Pollution Medium Agriculture Eutrophication/
PollutionMedium
Deforestation Erosion/Sedimentation Medium Navigation Erosion/Sedimentation Low Fisheries Loss of Biodiversity Low
ZONE 6 (Central Brazilian Atlantic Coast, Guanabara & Sepetiba Bay)
Driver Major CoastalPresssure
PresentPressure Status
TrendExpectation
Urbanization Erosion/Sedimentation Major Industrialization Pollution Medium
Deforestation Erosion/Sedimentation Medium Tourism Erosion/
EutrophicationLow
Fisheries Loss of Biodiversity Low
ZONE 2 (Central Pacific Coast, Ecuador/Peru/N. Chile)
Driver Major CoastalPressure
PresentPressure Status
TrendExpectation
Urbanization Eutrophication Major Damming/Diversion
Erosion/Sedimentation Major
Industrialization Pollution Medium Agriculture Eutrophication/
PollutionMedium
Deforestation Erosion/Sedimentation Medium Aquaculture Eutrophication Low Navigation Erosion/Sedimentation Low
Giving informationin a useful way
The river-coast continuum:
LOICZ Basins 1999-2002:
biogeochemical budgeting and classification of > 200 catchment areas in 7 major studies
COASTAL EROSION/ SEDIMENTATION AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN SOUTH AMERICAOVERVIEW AND QUALITATIVE RANKING OF IMPACTS (from LOICZ R&S No 21, 2002);
Impact scale: 10 = maximum; 9-7 = critical, 6-4 = medium, 3-1 = low, 0 = none.
Coastal issue Local site/ region(contributing riverbasins)
Critical threshold(for systemfunctioning)
Distance to critical threshold(qualitative or quantitative)
Ranking References/ datasource
Erosion/Sedimentation
(coastal geo-morphology)
a. Rivers of NorthPatagonia: Negro,Chubut, Colorado;including estuariesand adjacentbeaches.
b. NE Brazil:Jaguaribe River,Pacoti River, SãoFrancisco River
c. Uruguayan coastof the la PlataRiver estuary
d. Chile: Chañaral,Bio Bio andAconcagua Rivers
a. Several damsaffect river basins.Critical bedload isabout 105 t yr -1.
b. 0.02-0.1 106 t yr-1(5%).
c. Not known
d. Areas of lowsedimentdynamics
a. Critical threshold alreadypassed. Present delivery ofsediments estimated as 70-80%only of the critical load ofmaterial transport for sustainedcoastal stability.
b. Present delivery of sediments isabout 10% to 50% of the criticalload. Erosion of adjacentbeaches already evident.
c. Dune and beach loss observed.
d. Sedimentation occurring inestuaries.
a. 8
b. 9
c. 6
d. 3-5
a. Violante et al. (2001);Isla (1997); Lopez andMarcomini (1998);Cionchi et al. (1993);Pasquine et al. (1997)
b. Jimenez et al. (1999);Freire (1989); Valentini(1996); Bezerra (1996)
c. ECOPLATA (1999)
d. Hajek et al. (1990)
Provide improved critical load/threshold information
What did we learn: sources of nutrient production versus coastal loads
• People per catchment and runoff are reasonable proxies for coastal system metabolism
• DIN and DIP load are ~8% and 2-4% of the production
• DIN, DIP load may have tripled over the past 3 decades and look like ~5 times the pristine load
TOTAL ESTIMATED PRODUCTION,comparison with loading
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
YEAR
NIT
RO
GE
N (
10
9 mo
les
/yr)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
PH
OS
PH
OR
US
(1
09 m
ole
s/y
r)
Meybeck loadingLOICZ loading
NITROGEN
PHOSPHORUS
• Load still seems relatively low; but there is potential of continued increase with growing population and land use.
Smith et al. 2003, BioScience 53
12
3
45
Global typology (½° database) showing estimated regions of highly “disturbed”
coastal systems
typology filter: population density >60/km2 and cropland use >10%
• Most of the world coastline still has low yield – top blue (68% of
coastal cells).
• High yield is locally restricted– top red, yellow (1 -
2% of coastal cells).
• Most of the load comes from regions with low to intermediate yield
• Load will grow with population and land use change.
DEFINITIONS:
•“Yield” is material delivery per unit of catchment (mass km-2 yr-1).
•“Load” is total delivery ( mass km-2 yr-1 x km2 = mass yr-1).
Applying Typology approaches for the “big picture”
here: estimates for DIP yield and load to the world ocean
after Smith et al 2003
The New LOICZ
• Connection to the International Human Dimensions Programme, another Core Project of ESSP
• Science plan is finished and available on the web: www.loicz.org
• Example: Cooperative Research Center (Australia) brings together decision makers – tourism – economy – nature conservation
Cooperative Research Center, Australia:
Bringing together stakeholders interested in the Great Barrier Reef
• Association of Marine Park Tourism Operators• Australian Institute of Marine Science• Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority• Great Barrier Reef Research Foundation• James Cook University• Queensland Department of Primary
Industries and Fisheries• Queensland Seafood Industry Association
Inc.• SUNFISH Queensland Inc.
Theme 1:Theme 2:
Implications of global change and land and sea use on coastal development
Theme 3:
Anthropogenic influences on the river basin and coastal zone interactions
Scaling &
Modeling
Variability
Acquisi
tion
Dissem
ination
LOICZ 2003 - 2012
Vulnerability of coastal systems and hazards to human societies
Theme 4:
Fate and transformation of materials in coastal and shelf waters
Theme 1: Vulnerability of coastal systems and hazards to human societies (exchange with, e.g., GECHS, GECAFS, GWSP, WCRP) Sea level rise - Hard vs. soft coastal defences Natural hazards and life quality Impacts of global atmospheric / ocean climate change on coastal systems (downscaling) Variability of coastal vulnerability to environmental changes (Estuaries) Adaptation strategies to environmental changes and impact on health safety
Theme 2: Implications of global change and land and sea use on coastal development (exchange with, e.g., Urbanization, Land (LUCC), IDGEC) Coastal urbanisation Changing dynamics (e.g. mangroves, salt marshes, dredging) Changing sea use [sand and gravel mining, windmills, reclamation (including offshore), large scale engineering, oil and gas extraction, aquaculture]
New LOICZ: A process-based rolling synthesis approach
Theme 3: Anthropogenic influences on the river basin and coastal zone interactions (exchange with, e.g., GWSP, IDGEC, Land (LUCC)) Damming Catchment modelling on nutrients and pollution; scenarios Local governance and resource management Land Use and Cover Change and critical thresholds of mass transport
Theme 4: Fate and transformation of materials in coastal and shelf waters (exchange with, e.g., IMBER, SOLAS, GLOBEC) Local burial versus long distant export of matter Use of global (satellite) coastal monitoring data Coastal & Estuarine software (freeware/shareware) Interaction between coastal habitats/ecosystems and C/N/P sources/sinks Refining techniques for coastal biogeochemical budgets including error analysis Trace gasses in the coastal zone Geochemical cycling of Hg in the coastal zone
New LOICZ: A process-based rolling synthesis approach
BALTEX II Objectives:…Gradual extension of BALTEX methodologies to air and water quality studies
Overarching -Theme 5 :
Towards coastal system sustainability by managing land-ocean interactions (exchange with, e.g., IHDP, DIVERSITAS)
Changing economic valuation of coastal ecosystems (also under 2) Criteria of coastal sustainability (resources, ecological) Different governance strategies for coastal zone management and Indicators of management efficiency Contents and tools of adaptive management
New LOICZ: A process-based rolling synthesis approach
The Baltic Sea
• was part of LOICZ in the biogeochemical budgeting procedure (Vistula, Gulf of Finland, Odra projects)
• is part in the SINCOS EU project
Applying the typology to the Baltic Sea Region
River basins covered in global typology dataset
The Odra Project (IOW)www.ikzm-oder.de
• is a regional project of the New LOICZ
• immediately feeds into the themes 2, 3 and 5
• is transboundary• includes stakeholders
on river basin management
• LOICZ wants comparison to other river basins
Thank you!