An OverviewSteven Lohrenz

Dean, School for Marine Science and Technology

We are a coastal society…

Boston

New York

Philadelphia

Washington, DC

Atlantic Ocean

Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/NOAA NGDC

And our coasts and oceans are changing…

Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

20141984

Outline• Some facts about climate change in general• Climate change impacts in the New England region• Brief overview of what we can expect today

Key questions: What might we expect in the future and how can we prepare for it?

Facts about climate change• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014:

– “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…”

Facts about climate change• IPCC 2014:

– The ocean has warmed…Cooler than

average temperatures

Warmer than average

temperatures

1979

Facts about climate change• IPCC 2014:

– “the amounts of snow and ice have diminished”

20141979

Arctic (July to September average) and Antarctic (February) sea ice extent – IPCC (2014)

Arctic sea ice extent in September from 1979 to 2014 derived from satellite observations – NASA Visualization Studio

Facts about climate change• IPCC 2014:

– “…recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history”

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Facts about climate change• IPCC 2014:

– “Human influence on the climate system is clear…”

http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/overview.html

Evidence for and Consequences of Climate Change in the Northeast

• Projected long-term trends in climate and sea level rise

• Increased risk to coastal communities• Potential impacts on marine and

coastal ecosystems

Projected increases in average summer

temperatures in the Northeast for three time periods - early, mid-,

and late century

Frumhoff, P.C., J.J. McCarthy, J.M. Melillo, S.C. Moser, and D.J. Wuebbles. 2007. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions. Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

Average summer temperatures could increase by as much as 13o under high emission scenario!

• Changes in average summer heat index—a measure of how hot it actually feels, given temperature and humidity

• Yellow arrows track what summers would feel like under a lower-emissions scenario

• Red arrows track what summers could feel like under the higher-emissions scenario

Frumhoff et al. 2007. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions. Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

Changing offshore ecosystems – red hake

Nye et al., Mar. Ecol. Progr. Ser., 2009

Spatial distributions shifting to north in cooler, deeper water

The Northeast is experiencing higher rates of sea level rise

National Climate Indicators System Report, National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee ,February 2014

And sea level is rising at an accelerating rate

Later today…climate impacts on marine ecosystems

Environmental Changes in Buzzards Bay

Jeff Turner

Chrissy Petitpas

Kevin Stokesbury

Climate Change and Fisheries

James Bisagni

Salinity Changes in Coastal Waters

Later today…adaption, mitigation, and risk perception

Understanding and Visualizing Disaster Risk Through Ocean Modeling

Changsheng Chen

Chad McGuire

Role of Ecosystems in Coastal Protection and Mitigation

Maintaining Critical Supply Chains During Extreme Events

Brian Howes

Perception of Risk in Promoting Social Policies for Resilience

Angappa Gunaskeran

Our purpose:• Raise awareness of the impacts of climate

change and rising sea levels

• Understand and educate how climate change is influencing our coasts and coastal communities

• Put science into action to identify strategies for resiliency and sustainability of our marine ecosystems, resources, and our economy and way of life

Schedule:• Day 1: Multi‐region dialogue and

educational campaign about the impacts of climate change with a focus on coastal areas in our region

• Day 2: Establish cross‐regional collaborations to share best practices, data, and expertise related to resiliency policy and planning

Keynote Speaker: Anthony Janetos• Professor of Earth and Environment at Boston University and Director of

the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future

• Prior executive leadership positions at institutions including the Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NASA, World Resources Institute, and the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment

• Co-chair of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Lead Author and Coordinating Lead Author

Keynote Speaker: Amy Schatz• Producer and Director of Saving My Tomorrow, a six-

part family series on climate change through the eyes of children, presented by HBO and The American Museum of Natural History

• Emmy Award winning producer and director, whose work includes: Goodnight Moon & Other SleepytimeTales (1999), A Child's Garden of Poetry (2011) and An Apology to Elephants (2013)

Credit: Bryan Eaton / Newburyport Daily News

What might we expect in the future and how can we prepare for it?