Lockups, slap downs and building trust in official statistics

Dr Siu-Ming TamAustralian Bureau of StatisticsUNECE Work Session, June 2010

Trust can …

Only be slowly built up over time but can be lost overnight– “Trust comes by foot and leaves on

horseback” – Slovic (1993)

Leaks

• Statistics Canada checking to ensure job numbers didn't leak amid rumours – the Canadian Press, 6:29, 9 May 2009

• Statistics Canada says no reason to believe jobs data leaked early – The Canadian Press, 7:57, 13 May 2009,

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• StatsCan to probe possible report leak; Dollar surges during agency's confidential 'lock-up' with press– The Toronto Star, 9 May 2009

Unfair political advantage?• Pre-release gives the PM a head start

….Gordon Brown will see the economic statistics showing whether we are pulling out of recession before tomorrow’s TV debate, while the other two party leaders won’t.

……In line with the rules, ministers get a 24-hour advance look at the data, so it’ll be on the Prime Minister’s desk at 9.30 am tomorrow morning. David Cameron and Nick Clegg won’t see it until Friday.

…Sue Cameron calls it “legalised cheating” and calls on the Cabinet Office to see to it that all party leaders have the same access. - Straight Statistics 21/4/2010

Will there be honest statistics? “Knowledge is power, as Sir Francis

Bacon said; and when you have access to it, as government ministers do, it is hard to resist the temptation to abuse such a privilege. This is particularly so with the statistics that enable us to hold them to account for the vast amounts of our money that they spend and the actions they take.”

- The Daily Telegraph, 10 September 2007

Integrity and trust

• Perception– Level of public trust in UK stats is

extremely low – David Marder, 2009• 2/3 thinks that there is political

interference.

• NSO needs to trust by addressing perception– How?

What is trust?

• A multidimensional construct including– integrity, professional competence,

consistency, loyalty, openness and transparency

• Operates within a context of– past actions– Consequences– wrt values and principles important to the

trustor

How to measure trust?

Trust in official statistics

Trust in statistical products

Trust in statisticalinstitution

Timeliness

Reliability

Credibility

Objectivity

Relevance

Accuracy

Coherence

Confidentiality protected

Integrity

Openness/ transparency

Impartiality

Effective stakeholder management

Awareness

Cultural norms

Past history/experience

ABS policy – prior to mid 2007• Access by Departmental and

Ministerial staff– Up to 3 hours before release– In their own premises– Subject to signed undertaking

• Pressure to get more released– Is there media interest in the stats?– Is the Minister expected to comment?

ABS policy – after mid 2007

• New policy introduced

• Minimise perception of political interference– Lock ups

• Minimise releases under embargo access– Cuts down access to non MEI

releases

What statistics can be accessed?• Statistics relate to issues of high

public interest• Minister is highly likely to provide

public commentary• Statistics are sufficiently complex to

require Ministerial briefing• In reality, MEI publications + Crime

and Safety and Criminal Court publications

Who can have access?

• Departmental staff • Ministerial staff • But not the public, nor members of the

opposition• Request for access must

– come from a very senior Departmental official

– Be supported by a very senior ABS staff (on the need to know)

– Be approved by the Australian Statistician

How to access?

• In a lockup room (as opposed to in the Minister’s office as before)– Treasury Department, – ABS offices in the regions

• Lockup attendees cannot leave the room until statistics are released at 11:30 am

Duration of access

• 30 minutes– Eg Australian National Accounts –

State Accounts

• 60 minutes– Eg retail trade

• 1.5 hours– Eg LF, CPI, BoP and National

Accounts

Security

• Lockup attendees req’d to sign undertaking– Not to convey information outside of lockup

room prior to official release– Sanctions include “ban” for life and

prosecutions under the Crimes Act• Names to be provided 3 days in advance

– Need to display Dept’al IDs with photos• Mobile devices req’d to be surrendered• WiFi scanning device• Room is patrolled by a Security Guard

ABS independence

• Undertakings require– Attendees not allowed to issue media

releases until 10 minutes after ABS release

Wire services

• Similar arrangement– Lock up room in NSW Office– Duration is restricted to 5 minutes

• Only MEI category II access– Ie no CPI. NA, or LF– Access by slapdowns

Key points

• Trust only comes by slowly• Perception of political interference

and bad press will destroy trust• Pre-release access is needed to

ensure Ministers are well briefed• Lockups will not to give them an

unfair political advantage, nor public perception of political interference

Transitional arrangements

• Some push back by Depts and Ministerial staff– Evaluation after one year

• Delegation to extend by 15 minutes• Access to some statistics extended

• Australian Statistician informed his Minister of his new policy after federal election was announced.