Local labor markets and rural youth aspirations

in forest-dependent communities

Mindy S. Crandall, Ph.D. and Jessica E. Leahy, Ph.D. School of Forest Resources

University of Maine In partnership with Appalachian Mountain Club

WESTERN FOREST ECONOMISTS ANNUAL MEETING

MAY 3-4, SEATTLE, WASHINGTON

Overview of Maine

• Similar population density as Oregon

• Very few towns over 10,000 in population

• Very sparsely populated northern forest region

• Large increase in land in conservation status in last 25 years

• Much of that is working forest easements

• 1 in every 20 jobs related to forest products industry

Overview

The recent rise of easements

Data and graph courtesy of Lloyd Irland Overview

Overview

Conceptual model

Youth aspirations & expectations

Parent expectations,

opinions

College

Move away

Perceived labor market

conditions

Actual labor market

conditions Media, school

influences

Desirability of community

Technical

Job

Stay

Return

Community condition and

trajectory

Overview

Why? -> (Research) Knowledge to Action

Stakeholders Needs

Identification

Researchers

Problem Identification,

Research agenda

Research Projects

Students

Results & Model

Development

Workforce Development

Economic Development

Publications

KNOWLEDGE TO ACTION

Overview

Study overview In regions of changing industry and variable reliance on traditional forest products vs tourism/amenity uses…

• Do youth perceptions of labor markets (forestry and tourism) match reality?

• What roles for the future do they see for both traditional forestry and tourism/amenity uses?

• Is there a difference in youth goals and aspirations between communities with more traditional uses vs amenity uses?

• Is there a difference in youth perceptions between communities with recent transitions vs more stable industries?

Preliminary data collection this year: 3 of 5 target communities in northern Maine

Study goal: expand to 5+ rural communities in Maine, compare to communities in Oregon, and repeat survey over time to look for change over time

Overview

Piscataquis & Somerset Counties

• Five high schools in Piscataquis & Northern Somerset Counties

• The top two counties in the state in terms of proportion of land in conservation: • 39% of Piscataquis

• 31% of Somerset

• Area of significant conservation investment and forest industry activity

Milo

Greenville

Jackman

Overview

Overview

Overview

Overview

Population over time

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 2000 2010 2014

Greenville Milo Jackman

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Greenville Jackman Milo

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment rate, %

Secondary Data

Bachelor’s degree attainment

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2000 2010 2014

Greenville Milo Jackman

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Secondary Data

% of housing stock by value, 2010

0 20 40

<$50

50 - 99.9

100 - 149.9

150 - 199.9

200 - 299.9

300 - 499.9

500 - 999.9

>$1 million Greenville

0 20 40

Milo

0 20 40

Jackman

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Secondary Data

% of housing, vacant and for seasonal, recreational, or

occasional use

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2010

Greenville Milo Jackman

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

1990 2000 2010

Greenville Milo Jackman

Median household

income

Secondary Data

Industry Class of Worker

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing

Manufacturing Retail Trade Arts,

Entertainment, Rec Services

Government Self-Employed

2000

2010

2014

2.11

1.35

2.59

0.44

1.88

1.22

1.27

0.84

0.84

1.78

0.47

1.18

1.16

1.28

1.44

0.93

0.51

0.44

1.48

1.47

5.59

0.19

1.34

0.94

1.91

0.92

0.52

1.52

0.58

2.66

0.95

0.93

1.54

1.61

1.44

0.54

2.74

0.00

4.94

0.26

2.16

1.78

0.96

0.99

0.92

2.04

0.59

0.55

0.81

1.0

1.66

1.84

1.0

0.89

Greenville

Milo

Jackman

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Secondary Data

Describe your community…

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

This is a close-knit communitiy

This is a happy place to participate in community events

People can be trusted

This community is safe

People are willing to help their neighbors

People are friendly, caring and helpful

People get along with each other

This community listens to young people

Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat Agree Strongly Agree

Number of respondents

Survey Results

What have you participated in?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Trapping

Horseback riding

Cross-country skiing

Downhill skiing/snowboarding

Bird or wildlife watching

Snowshoeing

ATV riding

Mountain biking

Canoeing/kayaking

Camping

Hunting

Hiking

Snowmobiling

Fishing/ice fishing

% of respondents

Survey Results

Are these important problems facing your community?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Nu

mb

er

of

resp

on

den

ts

Yes

No

Not Sure/Don't Know

Survey Results

How important is it to you to…

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Finish high school

Go to a CC/tech program

Finish CC/tech program

Finish a college degree

Finish graduate school

Do an apprentice/internship

Join the military

Not at all important Slightly important Moderately important Very important Extrememly important

Number of respondents

Survey Results

Do you plan to leave this community when you are an adult? I plan to leave and

never return 9%

I plan to leave and return as soon as

possible 7%

I plan to leave and return someday

55%

Other 29%

Survey Results

In the future, do you think your community…

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

I believe we will have more jobs and an improving economy

I believe we will have the same number of jobs and the same economy

I believe we will have less jobs and a declining economy

% of respondents

Survey Results

What do you feel is the right balance?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Tourism/recreation 100%

Mostly tourism/recreation

75%

Mixed 50% Mostly forestry 75% Forestry 100%

% o

f re

spo

nd

ents

Survey Results

What do you like best about your community?

“It’s very quiet and there isn’t a lot of

things that can disturb people.”

“where it is, its right in the

middle of all the activities that I enjoy.”

“When something tragic happens, everyone gets together like a big family! We are always there for each other in times of need and people are so caring and giving.”

“I don’t like much of

anything about the

community.”

“That it is small/close-knit.” (17)

“the remoteness

of the town.”

“I love to go into the woods and

hunt and fish with my family.”

“I like that it is in the woods.”

Survey Results

What do you like least about your community?

“We are so far away from everything

(Walmart, grocery stores).” (4)

“I don’t really like that there are not many job

options in Jackman. Many jobs are taken due to older people needing jobs so when it comes to first time employees its

hard to find one.”

“If your not born and raised in the town, you’re an outsider.

Some people will be polite, others will not.”

“I dislike that there is no personal privacy.”

“There is not that

many jobs to choose

from.”

“Just about everything.”

“Rumors/drama spread quickly.”

“It’s small, the economy of this

town is lower than other places.”

Survey Results

“Jackman has a lot to offer for tourism and forestry.” “The idea of being a guide has been shot down in the past years in Jackman, alone

because there is [sic] so many guides in such a small area.”

“My dad is a logger and all I hear is that the logging business is going downhill, there’s no wood, there hasn’t been good logging weather for a couple years, everyone is trying to get out of logging, businesses like Plum Creek and others aren’t hiring, and anyone

who gets into logging now is crazy because there’s no future in it.”

“Unless you are entering a career in forestry, tourism, or something our local lumber mill, then it is unlikely that you will get to live in Jackman. I do wish to live in Jackman

because of the wonderful community and scenery, but my career choice prevents me from doing so.”

Survey Results

Future steps This is an introduction to current data collection efforts

Next two towns this year will be added in the next few weeks…

Expanded data gathering will allow for comparison between communities (spatially & temporally)

Stakeholders keenly interested in: ◦ Perceptions of conservation activity, forest industry activity

◦ Potential to design training/education programs to meet youth needs, especially in trail, forestry careers

◦ Potential to “sell” communities, or otherwise retain or attract families and youth

Exploring funding opportunities to expand survey to Oregon in partnership with the Ecosystem Workforce Program:

◦ Area of similar forest products dependence & some struggling rural communities

◦ Adds public lands influence

◦ Potential parallel in decline of harvest from public lands in Oregon and rise of easements in Maine

Thank You! mindy.crandall@maine.edu jessica.leahy@maine.edu

Mindy S. Crandall, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Forest Economics and Management

Jessica E. Leahy, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Human Dimensions

% of households by income range, 2010

0 10 20 30

< $10K

$10-14.9K

$15-24.9K

$25-34.9K

$35-49.9K

$50-74.9K

$75-99.9K

$100-149.9K

$150-199.9K

> $200K Greenville

0 10 20 30

Milo

0 10 20 30

Jackman

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Secondary Data