LOCAL HOUSING MARKET ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT ADA …...Jan 15, 2020 · Introduction & Welcome Topics: 1. 2019 Local Housing Report & 2020 Forecast 2. Economic Impact of Local Home

Presented by:

Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC

Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho

January 15, 2020

Boise, ID

LOCAL HOUSING MARKET

&

ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT

ADA COUNTY

Introduction & Welcome

Topics:

1. 2019 Local Housing Report & 2020 Forecast

2. Economic Impact of Local Home Building

3. Local Government Issues Addressed by BCA

and Savings

Local Housing Report

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Idah

o

Nevada

Arizona

Utah

Texa

s

South

Caro

lina

Was

hingto

n

Colorado

Florid

a

North C

arol in

a

2.1%

1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%

Top 10 States in Percent Growth 2019

Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS

5892 6098

6761 6726

7565

8991

12208

10370

6839

5154

5683

6172 6498

7115

8124 7963

9553

11048 11263

11559 11549

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

A1 - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY

Total Single Family Home Sales

BOOM 2004-2007 BUST 2008-2011 RECOVERY BOOM 2015-


2210 2609

3125

4900

3815

1877

1366 1190

986 878

1433 1674 1552

1778

2596 2774

3279

3700

4678

5265

5998

7349

6538

5131

3873

4493

5186

5620 5682

6450 6411

7775

8452 8489 8280

7849

5892 6098

6761 6726

7565

8991

12208

10370

6839

5154

5683

6172 6498

7115

8124 7963

9553

11048 11263

11559 11549

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

A1A - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY

New Construction Sales Existing Sales Total Single Family Home Sales


$27

9,9

00

$29

8,4

50

$30

6,5

46

$2

97

,00

0

$30

5,0

00

$3

24

,29

5

$31

6,5

00

$33

3,9

00

$31

8,6

00

$3

21

,39

8

$32

4,2

50

$3

24,9

00

$3

14

,53

9

$3

25

,00

0

$3

36

,56

6

$33

0,5

00

$3

44

,545

$35

3,6

00

$34

9,0

00

$35

4,9

00

$3

49,9

99

$3

50,0

00

$35

9,9

00

$3

50,0

00

12%

9% 10%

11%

13%

9% 10%

6%

9% 8%

12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11%

10% 10% 11% 11% 10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% C

han

ge

Me

dia

n S

ale

s $

A10 - Ada County Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price

2018 Median Sales $ 2019 Median Sales $

Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY


$36

5,7

52

$3

62,0

00

$3

44,5

35

$3

75

,546

$34

9,7

13

$39

2,5

26

$37

9,9

00

$3

88

,23

5

$3

57,5

00

$3

76

,00

0

$3

87,7

80

$4

03

,27

2

$3

67,0

00

$37

3,3

90

$37

9,9

90

$3

70,3

92

$3

89

,90

0

$4

09

,90

0

$3

89

,99

0

$3

98,6

41

$3

93,2

45

$4

01,7

02

$43

9,9

00

$3

99

,91

2

0%

3%

10%

-1%

11%

4%

3% 6%

10%

7%

13%

-1%

5%

7%

5%

7% 7%

6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000


% C

han

ge

Me

dia

n S

ale

s $

A11 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price

2018 Median Sales $ 2019 Median Sales $

Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ada County Permits

Single Family Permits

Mulit-Family Permits

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Single Family Permits

Boise

Meridian

Eagle

Star

Kuna

Ada County

Garden City

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Multi-Family Permits

Boise

Meridian

Eagle

Star

Kuna

Ada County

Garden City


4270

4424

4648

4882 4995

5077 5049

4878 4772

4573

4409

3948

1371 1406 1504

1705 1808

1967 1952 1937 2013

1897

1645

1422

1185 1178 1209 1279 1287

1463 1530

1659

1884 1817

1677

1506

1362 1333 1423 1445

1510

1717 1726 1680 1790

1686

1476

1233 1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500


A16 - Ada County Residential INVENTORY

2008 2017 2018 2019


3005

3206

3405

3581

3770

3910 3920

3795 3706

3555

3430

3029

555 640

737

920

1052

1270 1228 1226 1199

1068

797

582

424

489 562

679 704 816

862 885

1005

889

700

503

488 516

669 727 737 879 919 898 913

774

620

417

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

A60 - Ada County RESALE INVENTORY

2008 2017 2018 2019


1265

1218 1243

1301

1225

1167

1129

1083 1066

1018

979

919

816

766 767 785

756

697

724 711

814 829

848 840

761

689

647

600 583

647 668

774

879

930

977 1003

874

817

754

718

773

838 807

782

877 912

856

816

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

A59- Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION INVENTORY

2008 2017 2018 2019


3.8

4.2

3.5

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.9

2.8 2.8

2.5

2.7

3.3

2.5

2.2

2.1

1.9 2.0

2.1 2.1 2.1

2.0

1.8

2.0

2.6

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.8 1.7 1.7

1.8 1.9

1.8

1.6 1.5

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.2 1.2 1.3

1.5

1.8 1.9

1.8

1.9

2.1 2.1

1.9

1.6

1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5

1.8 1.7

1.6

1.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2015 J

an

Jul

2016 J

an

Jul

2017 J

an

Jul

2018 J

an

Jul

2019 J

an

Jul

Mo

nth

s t

o S

ell P

resen

t In

ven

tory

A28 - Ada Odds Progression w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.

Ada Odds


1

2

3

3

3

8

1.7

0

0

1

2

2

2

6

1.3

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

$200-249,999

$250-299,999

$300-399,999

$400-499,999

$500-699,999

$700-999,999

$1,000,000 +

Total

Months to Sell Present Inventory

AC23 DECEMBER 2019 YTD SELLING ODDS

Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds


7.0 7.1

6.1 6.2

6.0

5.0

4.5

5.1

5.7

5.3

5.6

5.0

5.3

6.0

4.4

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.7

3.5 3.6

3.9 4.1

4.7

5.3

3.8 3.7

3.9

2.9 2.9

3.1

3.4 3.5

3.8 3.9 3.8

3.5

2.7 2.6

2.2 2.1

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.1

3.8

3.5

2.6

2.2 2.2

2.6

2.8

2.6

3.0 3.1

2.9

2.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2015 J

an

Ju

l

2016 J

an

Ju

l

2017 J

an

Ju

l

2018 J

an

Ju

l

2019 J

an

Ju

l

Mo

nth

s t

o S

ell

Pre

sen

t In

ve

nto

ry

A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.

Ada Odds


7.0 7.1

6.1 6.2

6.0

5.0

4.5

5.1

5.7

5.3

5.6

5.0

5.3

6.0

4.4

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.7

3.5 3.6

3.9 4.1

4.7

5.3

3.8 3.7

3.9

2.9 2.9

3.1

3.4 3.5

3.8 3.9 3.8

3.5

2.7 2.6

2.2 2.1

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0 2015 J

an

Mar

May

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

2016 J

an

Mar

May

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

2017 J

an

Mar

May

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

2018 J

an

Mar

May

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

Mo

nth

s t

o S

ell

Pre

sen

t In

ve

nto

ry


Ada Odds


7.0 7.1

6.1 6.2

6.0

5.0

4.5

5.1

5.7

5.3

5.6

5.0

5.3

6.0

4.4

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.7

3.5 3.6

3.9 4.1

4.7

5.3

3.8 3.7

3.9

2.9 2.9

3.1

3.4 3.5

3.8 3.9 3.8

3.5

2.7 2.6

2.2 2.1

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.1

3.8

3.5

2.6

2.2 2.2

2.6

2.8

2.6

3.0 3.1

2.9

2.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2015 J

an

Ju

l

2016 J

an

Ju

l

2017 J

an

Ju

l

2018 J

an

Ju

l

2019 J

an

Ju

l

Mo

nth

s t

o S

ell

Pre

sen

t In

ve

nto

ry


Ada Odds


719

759

862

942

891

857

793

683 670

647 641

598

700

766

815

878

837

806

838

796

741 718

759 756

-3%

1%

-5%

-7% -6% -6%

6%

17%

11% 11%

18%

26%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000


% C

han

ge

A48 - Ada County PENDING NEW CONSTRUCTION Sales

2018 Pending Sales Units 2019 Pending Sales Units % Change


1

5

6

4

5

0

0

4

0

1

3

3

3

4

6

3

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

$200-249,999

$250-299,999

$300-399,999

$400-499,999

$500-699,999

$700-999,999

$1,000,000 +

Total

Months to Sell Present Inventory

AC24 DECEMBER 2019 YTD SELLING ODDS New Construction

Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds


$31

3,7

48

$30

5,1

82

$28

2,5

00

$27

8,1

06

$29

7,1

50

$31

5,4

00

$28

5,9

27

$34

9,6

42

$32

8,3

08

$30

9,0

00

$33

4,1

64

$32

0,0

00

$28

6,1

25

$29

9,9

85

$29

6,0

00

$31

8,7

60

$31

6,4

50

$30

4,6

29

$31

4,9

00

$32

6,6

62

$31

7,3

25

$33

3,4

50

$31

1,8

37

$30

7,8

62

$31

1,1

90

$34

0,0

00

$31

1,7

51

$32

0,7

68

$31

7,9

90

$34

5,0

00

$33

4,9

00

$35

3,8

25

$35

0,0

00

$32

9,9

00

$33

9,5

00

$35

6,2

99

$36

5,7

52

$36

2,0

00

$34

4,5

35

$37

5,5

46

$34

9,7

13

$39

2,5

26

$37

9,9

00

$38

8,2

35

$35

7,5

00

$37

6,0

00

$38

7,7

80

$40

3,2

72

$36

7,0

00

$37

3,3

90

$37

9,9

90

$37

0,3

92

$38

9,9

00

$40

9,9

00

$38

4,9

90

$39

8,6

41

$39

3,2

45

$40

1,7

02

$43

9,9

00

$39

9,9

12

25%

33%

30%

28%

30%

29% 28%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

% o

f M

ed

ian

In

c t

o b

uy M

ed

ian

pri

ce

d h

om

e

Sin

gle

Mo

nth

Me

dia

n S

ale

s $

A40 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION AFFORDABILITY Index

Single Month Median Sales $ Affordability Index


$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000

$230,000

$240,000

$250,000

$260,000

$270,000

$280,000

$290,000

$300,000

$310,000

$320,000

$330,000

A57 - Ada County Market Correction - DECEMBER 2019

Yearly Existing Median Sales Price Equity Existing Median Sales Price 3.7% Appreciation Line - 2000 Base Year

➢ Sales: UP (12+%)

➢ Price: UP

➢ Permits: UP (7.5%)

➢ Inventory: DOWN (Balanced)

➢ Distressed Inventory: VERY LOW

➢ Months Supply: DOWN

➢ Affordability: UP

Local Housing Report2019 New Construction Summary

New Construction Forecast


✓ 2019 Prediction: Strong Sales and Price Resistance✓ Price gains not the same % increase as last year

✓ “Later innings”

✓ 2019 Wild Cards:✓ Inventories (Homes and Lots) … continue as a disciplined recovery?

✓ Interest Rates will rise …… how much?

✓ Inflation: Building Costs, Land & Lot Prices

✓ Labor shortages …. impacts inventory production and costs

✓ Government Regulations - Local and National

✓ Trump Effect ??? – Trade Wars, Government Shutdowns, Trump vs. all


✓ 2020 Prediction: Growth at a slower Pace

✓ Sales Still Strong, especially first ½ of year

and….More Price Resistance (Be Smart)

✓ Price gains similar to, or less than, last

year’s % increase



✓ 2020 Prediction: Growth at a slower Pace

✓ Sales Still Strong, especially first ½ of year and….More Price Resistance

✓ Price gains similar to, or less than, last year’s % increase


✓ 2020 Wild Cards: Interest Rates

✓ 2020 Wild Cards (other):✓ Inventories (Homes and Lots) … continue as a disciplined recovery?

✓ Inflation: Building Costs, Land & Lot Prices

✓ Labor shortages …. impacts inventory production and costs

✓ Government Regulations - Local and National. Election Year

✓ Trump Effect ??? – Trade Wars, Impeachment, Trump vs. all

✓ Recession ?

More Trends & Impacts

✓ Millennials and Boomers will dominate market

✓ Price spread between New and Existing Homes

✓ Over 21% is better, but still concerning

✓ Fewer homes on the market is the new normal

✓ Opposition to new housing will continue

✓ Interest Rate sensitivity

Recent quotes in the news….






1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review

Page 1 of 2ht tps://idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/

Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot

North Architecture.

Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019

! By: Steve Sinovic " January 28, 2019 # 0

The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.

Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets

poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.

The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed

housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new

construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and

which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.

Boise landed No. 8 on the list.

According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is

due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other

markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-

earned cash.”

The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com

data.

The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and

attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.

“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the

prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.

One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since

last year.

“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.

According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,

Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.

“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”

said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be

first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”

While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.

It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,

prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks

to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax

changes pricing more buyers out of the market.

Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019


Page 1 of 2ht tps:// idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/


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2020

1

NAHB Local Housing

Economic Impact Study

for Ada County

December 2018

Economic Direct Impact2019 SF Residential Construction

Ada County 2019

# of SF Building Permits: 4,890

Median house price: $400,000

Permit/Impact fees: $14,000

Annual property taxes: $3,570

Economic Direct Impact2019 SF Residential Construction

Total Taxes & Fees paid to local governments:

Total Permit & Impact Fees: $68,460,000

Property Taxes & Other Fees: $8,728,000

TOTAL $77,188,000

Note: Total Fees Paid = total permits x permit fees

Property Taxes = ½ of total permits x value (less owner exemption) x avg. levy

Top Regulatory Issues

Addressed by BCA in 2019

Top BCA issues in 2019

1. State Building Codes

(Residential, Energy, etc.)

2. Meridian Planning Code &

Comp Plan

3. Meridian Building Dept.

(Plan Reviews, inspections)

Est. Savings / home

$6,000

$1,500

$600

Current Local Regulatory Issues

1. State Building Codes: 2018 Residential, Energy, etc.

➢ Bring all Idaho Cities/Counties onto the same code

2. Legislative Issues:

➢ Contractor Registration vs. Licensing

3. Positive Public Relations Outreach

4. Meridian Open Space Ordinance, etc.

5. DEQ: IPDES (Permit for Storm Water Erosion Control)

Top Regulatory Issues

Estimated Savings in 2018 - 2019

$19,500 per home

... 10 homes = $195,000

... 100 homes = $1,950,000

✓ For every $1,000 increase in home = 482 people priced

out of the local housing market

Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC

Call: 208-850-1070

Email: [email protected]

QUESTIONS?

DATA SOURCES

LOCAL HOUSING REPORT – YEAR END 2018

• Intermountain MLS, Webb Charts, National Association of Relators

NAHB LOCAL HOUSING ECONOMIC IMPACT – DEC. 2018

• Building Costs & Sales Price: Local Builders, Developers & IMLS

• Permits: Ada County and Cities

• Local Gov’t Revenue (building permit, impact & connection fees,

prop. taxes, etc.): Ada County and City Building Depts & Ada

County Assessor

• Local Government Costs (spending): U.S. Census Bureaus’ Census

of Governments (based on inputs from local agencies)

• Economic Impacts: NAHB, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & U.S. Census Bureaus’ Census of

Governments (based on inputs from local agencies)

• Jobs: Idaho Dept. of Labor & Idaho Dept. of Commerce

Documents

LOCAL HOUSING MARKET ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT ADA …...Jan 15, 2020 · Introduction & Welcome Topics: 1. 2019 Local Housing Report & 2020 Forecast 2. Economic Impact of Local Home