International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

Designing Adaptation Plans

Local Experiences from the Hindu

Kush Himalayas

Dhrupad Choudhury

Adaptation to Change Regional Programme

Regional Training Workshop on adaptation for

Asian LDCs Siam Reap, Cambodia

20-24th August, 2013

Hindu Kush Himalayas: Diverse

resources, growing vulnerabilities

The Third pole :

largest repository of

freshwater outside the Poles

- Asia’s ‘Water Towers’

Ecological buffer between

the Tibetan Plateau and

South Asia; diverse

resources, exceptionally

high biological and cultural

diversity

Himalayan glaciers:

Source of freshwater reserves providing

headwaters for 10 major river systems

in Asia – a lifeline for almost one third

of humanity

Liu and Chen, 2000

Temperature increasing more at

higher elevations

Elevation-temperature trend relationship (Tibetan Plateau)

1973

(photo ICIMOD

archive)

2011

(photo Panday)

Mt. Machhapuchhare, Nepal, 6993 meters

Snow cover over parts of the Himalaya has

been decreasing…

Monsoon patterns are changing…

Changes in rainfall intensity, water availability;

Increasing frequency of disasters

How do we adapt to the changing

environment?

10 major rivers

210 million in HKH;

1.3 Billion People Downstream

Who (and where) are the

vulnerable? Effective targeting

• Mountain, coastal, island communities

• The poor and the marginalised..women, elderly, children…

Generalisations….

Governments require tangible and accurate information for action…..

Serving the eight countries of the

Hindu Kush Himalayas (5 LDCs)

Vision:

Men, women, and children of the Hindu Kush

Himalayas enjoy improved wellbeing in a

healthy mountain environment

Regional Inter-governmental Learning and Knowledge Centre

Regional Programme on Adaptation

to Change

Enhanced adaptive

capacities of women, men

and children of the

Himalayan region supported

through appropriate policies

and practices

GDP contribution (%age)

(Source: KPK Census data)

1990-91 1995-96 2002-3

Over all agro-ecosystem 23.6 21.8 20.6

major crops 8.4 6.6 4.7

minor crops 3.7 3.3 1.8

livestock 10.8 11.5 12.5

Anomalous climate trends

Quantitative Approaches: Agro-pastoral trends

in Upper Indus Basin

Decreasing agriculture area Increasing livestock

(Fowler & Archer 2005)

0

20

40

60

80

100

< 500 500-1000 1000-1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000 3000-3500 3500-4000 4000-4500 >4500

No. of

Pix

els

in

Per

cen

tag

e

Zone of Elevation (m)

Pixels with Significant Trend (p-value <0.10) Pixels indicating Greening Trend Pixels indicating Browning Trend

Greening / Browning of rangelands –

challenges...and opportunities?

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive capacity

Socio-demographic profile

Entitlement to resources

Livelihood strategies

Social networks

Accessibility

Coping strategies

Wellbeing

Health/sanitation

Food security

Water security

Environmental fragility

Natural shocks

Economic shocks

Perception of climate variability

Climate variability

Dependency ratio

Agricultural land per head

Per head consumption

Remittances per head

No. of institut. which helped

Time to next market centre

No. of adaptation strategies

Drinking water quality

No. of month food suffficient

No. of month water sufficient

Quality of wall material

No. of natural shocks

No. of economic shocks

Perc. change in temperature

Extreme temperature data

Quantitative approaches: PVA

Operationalization of Vulnerability

Vulnerability

8,822 HH of 23 districts

• 3,448 HH of 9 mountain districts

• 3,836 HH of 10 hill districts

• 1,538 HH of 4 plain districts

Nepal: Surveyed Districts & Sample

size (IFAD, MFA-Norway)

System to delineate pockets of poverty &

vulnerability : Improving targeting & shaping

adaptation & development interventions

Vulnerability

(within districts)

Food security

(within districts)

Vulnerability Districts

Nepal - 9 districts: 4 mtns; 3 hills; 2 terai;

3600 households

Multiple dimensions for determining pockets

of poverty and vulnerability

Mainstreaming Adaptation into

Development: Linking vulnerability to

Multi-dimensional Poverty Measures

Vulnerability Index MPM = poverty headcount x poverty intensity

Understanding Multi-dimensionality:

Characteristics & Attributes….. Towards

better targeting & effective mainstreaming

0.25

0.25

0.20

0.18

0.17

0.15

0.15

0.14

0.13

0.12

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.09

0.08

0.07

0.07

0.07

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.01

0.00

0.58

0.56

0.46

0.41

0.40

0.33

0.33

0.36

0.26

0.31

0.24

0.24

0.22

0.21

0.21

0.19

0.17

0.16

0.10

0.11

0.07

0.04

0.01

0.44

0.45

0.44

0.44

0.43

0.47

0.46

0.41

0.48

0.41

0.42

0.42

0.47

0.43

0.40

0.39

0.40

0.40

0.46

0.37

0.40

0.40

0.37

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

Humla

Bajhang

Jajarkot

Khotang

Bhojpur

Udayapur

Saptari

Mugu

Kailali

Siraha

Taplejung

Rukum

Sindhuli

Dailekh

Sankhuwashava

Darchula

Sindhupalchok

Sunsari

Terthum

Solukhumbu

Gorkha

Kavre

Dolakha

MPM

Headcount

Intensity

Reality Checks:

Assessing Community Needs and

Capacities (Qualitative)

• Participatory assessments of vulnerability and local adaptive capacities – PRA approach (with subsequent quantifications)

– Community perceptions on

change

– Impacts of change, community responses to overcome change

– Identify community concerns, areas for institutional support

Uttarakhand: 3

Nepal: 3+2

N E India: 5

Bhutan: 2

Participatory assessments….(where

and with whom)

Survey districts

Bhutan Pemagatshel

Trashi Yangste

India

Uttarakhand Almora

Bageshwar

Tehri

NE India W Garo Hills

E Garo Hills

Ri Bhoi

Karbi Anglong

Ukhrul

Nepal (Mid-west)

Humla

Bajhang

Dailekh

(West & East)

Tanahu

Terathum

Total: 15 districts; 90 villages

(criteria – elevation, accessibility, marginality)

Elevation range: 50-3,500 m

6 IFAD Projects:

Bhutan: AMEPP

India: Aajeevika, MRDS & NERCORMP

Nepal: WUPAP & LFLP

Participatory assessments:

Approach and methodology

Approach: Participatory Rural Appraisal

• Based on Community based Vulnerability and

Capacity Assessment Framework

Methodology: PRA Toolkit

o Weather perceptions (Seasonality, duration,

change)

o Hazard Ranking (Weather & weather induced)

o Seasonal Dependency (Support systems,

Resource diversity & availability)

o Seasonal Calendar (Seasonal activities)

o Venn diagram (Institutional dependency)

Participatory interpretation of PRA results :

Impacts, coping/adaptive mechanisms

Identifying vulnerable communities:

Sensitivity to exposures (% villages reporting high hazards)

Exposure

Uttarakhand Nepal Bhutan NE India

Tehri Bageshwor Almora Bajhang Humla Dailekh Tanahu Terhathum Pemagatshel Yangtse

West

Garo

Hills

East Garo

Hills Ri-Bhoi

Karbi

Anglong Ukhrul

Hot *** ** ** * * ** *** *** **

Rain * * ** ** ** ** ***

Dry *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** ** ** *** *** *** ***

Hail ** * * * ** * ***

Storm *** * * *** ** * ***

Pest *** ** * *** ** *** *** *** **

S/E 3/3 1/4 0/2 1/2 1/1 3/4 1/4 1/4 1/3 0/4 1/6 2/3 5/6 2/4 2/3

Notations: * <33%, ** 33-66%, ***>66% of surveyed villages (= indicates degree of sensitivity to the exposure)

Reality Check: Adaptive Capacities…

Support Systems for food & income

(dependencies)

Food resource availability (months)

Rainfed

Wet terrace

Homegarden

Forest

Animal husbandry

Fishery

Orchard

systems

0

2

4

6

8

mo

nths

8 2 5 3 5 0 1

Income resources availability (months)

Rainfed

Wet terrace

Homegarden

Forest

Animal husbandry

Fishery

Orchard

systems

0

2

4

6

mo

nth

s

6 0 5 6 6 0 1

Rainfed agriculture, homegardens, animal husbandry &

forests critical support systems for rural communities in the

mountains,

despite the strong policy focus on irrigated systems and

plantations.

Rainfed systems: Food

& Income Availability

Duration of food resource availability:

Duration of food resource availability shows

inter-village variations

Trends suggest longer duration of resource

availability in eastern locations

Duration of income resources

availability:

Duration of income resource availability

significantly longer in eastern locations,

despite inter-village variations; very limited

duration in Uttarakhand

duration(months) of income- rainfed agri

village code

100806040200

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Observed

Linear

duration(months) of food- rainfed agri

village code

100806040200

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Observed

Linear

UK Nepal Bh NE

UK Nepal Bh NE

Understanding capacities: Adaptive

responses (anticipatory, preventive,

long-term measures)

Responses

% of villages in locations

Uttarakhand Nepal Bhutan NE India

Adaptive

Maturation (Duration) Early (short) 6 3

Late (long) 6

Varietal replacement

new 28 3 17 11

Resistant

(traditiional) 3 50 23

crop replacement food crop 22 27 22

cash crop 39 10 6

Shifts

system Livestock 8

agriculture 6

resource

forest resources 3 6

Livestock 6

Agriculture

diversification 17 13 17 6

Occupation

(migration) 17

Assessing adaptive capacities: Correlating responses with resource &

support system diversity y = -0.4349x + 4.6517

R² = 0.0166

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

resp

on

se

Resources/support system

Correlating response with resource base

total responses Linear (total responses)

y = -3.3358x + 5.3804 R² = 0.0288

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

resp

on

ses

SS index

Correlating SS index with responses

total responses

More diverse the

‘portfolios’ – more

effective the risk

management

High diversity

increases

resilience

Participatory Flexible Planning: Envisioning

Future Risks to enhance adaptive capacity and

resilience of rural communities

Envisioning the future: Close your

eyes.... and wake up in the year 2033

Preparing communities to

monitor rainfall and temperature

Community Risk Mapping

Preparing Flexible Flood Map

Disaster Risk Reduction: Preparedness and

capacity enhancement of communities

Building capacities to manage risks:

Flood Preparedness - Early Warning

Systems

• Participatory early

warning system

• WiFi link for relay

warning downstream

– communities, DRR

system

• Complimented with

Flexible Planning for

enhancing adaptation

to flood-related

hazard management

Institutional dependencies

Institutions Uttarakhand Nepal Bhutan NE India

Civic

Informal

Social groups

Individual W ** ** * ***

O * *

Kinship W ** ***

O

Peer group W *

O

Customary Traditional W * ***

O *

Formal

Affinity group W ** *** ***

O ** * *

NGO/Donors W ** ** *

O ** *** ***

Religious body W ** *

O * *

Public

Government W *** *** *

O *** *** *** ***

Statutory W *** *** **

O *** *

Private

Financial W *

O *** * *** *

Market W * ** * *

O * *

Notation : *<33% , ** 33-66% , *** >66% of villages , W-within village, O-Outside village

Community dependency on

institutions: purposes & accessibility

Purposes Locations

Institutions

Civic Public Private

Informal Formal

Social groups Customary

Basic needs

Uttarakhand ** ** *

Nepal * * * **

Bhutan *** *

NE India ** * * * *

Access to resources

Uttarakhand ** **

Nepal * ** *

Bhutan * * **

NE India * * ** *

Support services

Uttarakhand ** **

Nepal ** ** *

Bhutan * ***

NE India * ** ** *

Social capital/ support

Uttarakhand ** **

Nepal * ***

Bhutan * ** **

NE India * * ** *

Notations: * <33% , ** 33-66% , *** >66% of villages

Knowledge to Practice: Shaping

interventions (mainstreaming adaptation

into development)

Mountain

poverty

*Specificities

*Pockets

*Drivers

Community

*Adaptive capacities

*Required support

Required Action

*Improved NRM

*Income diversification

*Risk Management

*Responsive

local

governance

Poverty and

Vulnerability

Assessments

Towards a more inclusive adaptation plan

formulation process: The Adaptation

Learning Highway