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7/30/2019 lldPE global
1/25
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7/30/2019 lldPE global
2/25
__________lldPE_________ ( )
1 , ( 2007-2011 .)
\
,
1 2 3 4 5
1
Consumption of shrink film primarily for the
packaging ,including flexible packaging
industry especially in China and India
-production and consumption ;
75% weight/75% inChina and 69% In
India
The strong development of the Asian,especially
Chinese and Indian packaging industry was adriving force for lldPE consumption in 2007-
2011,accounting for more than 75% of the total
global lldPE consumption in 2007-2011 ;lldPE
was an absolutely preferred material in NorthAmerica and certain parts of Europe,including
West Europe
The Asian lldPE consumption growth of5,3% is attributed mainly to the Chinese
and Indian production and consumption
growth ,first of all using C4based lldPE
as standalone material but also in blendswith other polyolefin types
2
LldPE application in certain areas of injection
moulding was especially preferred in NorthAmerica/USA and Canada/ as well as in West
Europe.In China the share of injectionmoulding application sof lldPE approached
cca. 7%,while that in India cca.8%
10% weight
In 2007-2011 the share of injection mouldingapplication of lldPE approached cca10% ;when
regional fluctuations were relatively high in thissegment of lldPE processing technology
In Asia there is expected a certain
stagnation of the lldPE application for
injection moulding end-uses
3
Global lldPE consumption for rotomouldingshowed a dynamic development netween 2007
and2011,when the main driving factor was the
West European and North European
applications of lldPE for rotomoulding
5 % weight
In terms of absolute volumes China and Indialed the way for this application,when in Chinathe relative share of rotomoulded lldPE was
about 3%as opposed to India,where this
segments lldPE consumption accounted for
about 11% of the total Indian lldPE consumption
Globally the share of rotomoulding grade
lldPE in between 2007 and 2011 was
about 5%
4
Wire and cable applications were a minor
driving segment for the total global lldPE
consumption between 2007 and 2011
3%
Special grades of wire and gable grade lldPE
polymers were applied in the wire and cablesector mainly in some regions of West
Europe,USD,Japan and Korea in low specific
quantities -this segment included mainly C6
type lldPE
In Asia the wire and cable sectorconsumed higher quantities but of lower
grade lldPE in comparison with West
Europe and North America.
5 LldPE consumption in other processingsegments
7%
LldPE found its application in relatively wide
range of end-uses,mainly as in the form of
polyolefin blends
This segment includes lldPE for specialapplications
Total 100%
2
7/30/2019 lldPE global
3/25
, 2007-2011 .
. ,
2012-2022 .,
, 2012-2022 .
2012-2022 . ( ).
3
7/30/2019 lldPE global
4/25
2 , ( 2007-2011 .)
\
,
1 2 3 4 5
1 European Naphtha pricingLldPE pricemovement,change /in% of value/ +16%
Especially in Europe the increasing
naphtha/ethylene prices resulted acca.16%increase in lldPE pricing between
2007 and 2011;naphtha is still the most widely
used raw material for lldPE production
Naphtha shortage in Europe impacted not
only the production of ethylene and itsderivatives but also the output propyleneand butadiene downstream based products
2 Asian ethane pricing
LldPE price
movement,change/in% of value / -10%
In Asia the naphtha price increase impact was
less important,since the continent relied alsoon ethane derived lldPE supplies from the
Middle East as well as coal deived ethylene/especially in China/as feedstock ,thus in Asia
there was recorded a cca. 10%
lldPE/especially C4 type/price drop%
In the second half of the period of 2007-2011 there were said some restrictions
imposed on especially the Saudi ethane
sources,so the future availability of this raw
material may be in jeopardy,similarly as in
Canada/Alberta province.
3 CIS region naphtha pricingLldPE price
movement,/change in
% of value/
LldPE priceremained relatively flat in theinvestigated period in the regions of the CIS;
which may be attributed to the cheaper localnaphtha but also to the entrance of the Russian
federation to the WTO in the scrutinized
period of 2007 and 2011
As for the CIS region,generally in
petrochemicals egment of the industry therewere not experienced naphtha raw material
shortages for lldPE production
4South and Central America naphtha and ethane
pricing
lldPE price
movement,change in
%of value / +5%
The continent was exposed mainly to theincreasing naphtha derived ethylene price
increase,although to the lesser extent,than the
North American continent ;lldPE prices rose
by about 5% here
In Central and South America naphtha
retained its key importance as the main
lldPE production feedstock
5 North America naphtha pricing
LldPE price
movement,change in
% of value /+15%
The North American lldPE price development
was particularly exposed to the naphtha price
increase as well as to the loosely depleting
ethane reserves in the Prentiss/Joffre Alberta
Canada region ; plants are located on the
vulnerable Gulf Coast running mainly onnaphtha based ethylene as feedstock ;in
Canada as mentioned large capacities of lldPEare running on ever hardly available ethane p
The North American naphtha pricing was
and the slowly depleting ethane sources of
Alberta were in particular harmful to the
profitability of lldPE production in thiscontinent between 2007 and 2011
4
7/30/2019 lldPE global
5/25
, 2007-2011 .
. ,
2012-2022 ., ,
2012-2022 .
2012-2022 . ( ).
5
7/30/2019 lldPE global
6/25
3 ( 2012-2022
. ) base scenario
\
, %,
100% -
%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1
Consumption of lldPE C4 based
shrink films primarily forflexible packaging , especially in
China -production and
consumption ;in global terms
there is estimated cca. 70%of
lldPE consumed will be C4 type
material,about 20% C6 type andthe remaining 10% will be
provided by C8 octene typelldPE with metallocene types
production growing
exceptionally strongly in some
parts of the world
80% weight
The strong development of the
Asian,especially Chinese and
Indian flexible packaging
industry will be a drivingforce for lldPE consumption in
2012-2022,accounting for
more than 51% of the total
global lldPE consumption in
2012-2022 ;in India the
prevailing lldPE type willremain the C4 based polymer
similarly as in China,although
in some packagingapplications the C6 or
superhexene type lldPE
polymer will show a strong
growth
80%
The Asian lldPE consumption
growth of 4%-5%% is
attributed mainly to the
Chinese lldPE production and
consumption growth ,the
country will become more selfsustainable in lldPE
consumption too,but huge
quantities of lldPE importsespacilly from the Middle East
and potentially from North
America remain an important
factor,
As seen,the lldPE use for
extrusion as well as
special blown film
applications will be the
major driving segment ofthe global lldPE
consumption in 2012 and2022
SRIConsulting,Menl
o ParkCalifornia
2Consumption of lldPE by
injection moulding processing
technology
10% weight
In 2012-2022 the production
of injection moulded lldPE
parts accounts for about 10%
of the total global lldPE
consumption,especially Asia,in particular India ,
China,Korea,Thailandconsumption growth will the
driving force of lldPE
consumption in this segment
10%
In terms of volume
production and consumptiongrowth will also be attributed
to the Asian lldPEconsumption growth in this
segment in 2012-
2022,especially in
India,Thialand,Indonesia andChina
There is anticipated an
increasing quantity oflldPE consumption in
special injectionmoulding applications in
compounds withelastomers and/or
plastomers for high tech
applications
SRIConsulting,Menl
o Park
California
6
7/30/2019 lldPE global
7/25
3
Global lldPE consumption for
rotomoulding will show a
dynamic development between
2012 and 2022,when the main
driving factor will be the Asian
and South American continent
5 % weight
In terms of absolute volumes
China and India will led the
way for this application,whenin China the relative share of
rotomoulded lldPE will be
about 4% as opposed to
India,where this segments
lldPE consumption will
account for about 7% of thetotal Indian lldPE
consumption
Globally the share of
rotomoulding grade lldPE in
between 2012 and 2022 will
be about about 5%
High quality,specialgrades of lldPE for the
rotomoulding sector are
expected to be exported
especially by the
revamped North
American capacities
SRIConsulting,Menl
o Park
California
4
Wire and cable applications willremain a minor driving segment
for the total glopal lldPE
consumption between 2012 and
2022
5%
Special grades of wire and
gable grade lldPE polymers
are applied in the wire and
cable sector mainly in someregions of West
Europe,USD,Japan and Korea
as well as in other countries of
the Pacific Rims Asia
part,this segment includes
mainly C6 type lldPE
In Asia the wire and cable
sector will consume largerquantities but of lower grade
lldPE in comparison with
West Europe and North
America.
The consumption of
lldPE in the wire andcable industry will be
driven by the use of
metallocene type
material based on
proprietary technology
SRIConsulting,Menl
o Park
California
Total 100%
, 2007-2011 . ( 1).
7
7/30/2019 lldPE global
8/25
4a ( 2012-2022
. ) positive scenario
\
, %,
100% -
%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1
Consumption of lldPE C4 based
shrink films primarily for
flexible packaging , especially inChina -production and
consumption ;in global termsthere is estimated cca. 60%of
lldPE consumed will be C4 type
material,about 25% C6 type and
the remaining 15% will be
provided by C8 octene typelldPE with metallocene types
production growing
exceptionally strongly in some
parts of the world
77% weight
The strong development of the
Asian,especially Chinese and
Indian flexible packaging
industry will be a drivingforce for lldPE consumption in
2012-2022,accounting for
more than 58% of the total
global lldPE consumption in
2012-2022 ;in India the
prevailing lldPE type will
remain the C4 based polymer
similarly as in China,althoughin some packaging
applications the C6 or
superhexene type lldPE
polymer will show a strong
growth
77%
The Asian lldPE consumptiongrowth of 6,2% is attributed
mainly to the Chinese andIndian lldPE production and
consumption growth ,the
country will become more self
sustainable in lldPE
consumption too,but hugequantities of lldPE imports
espacilly from the Middle East
and from North
America/mainly metallocene
type lldPE/ will be an
important factor,
As seen,the lldPE use for
extrusion as well asspecial blown film
applications will be the
major driving segment of
the global lldPE
consumption in 2012 and
2022 ,when in this
positive scenario the
share of metallocenetype lldPE in the total
global consumption of
lldPE will be about 22%
SRI
Consulting,Menl
o Park
California
2
Consumption of lldPE by
injection moulding processingtechnology
11% weight
In 2012-2022 the production
of injection moulded lldPE
parts accounts for about 11%
of the total global lldPE
consumption,especially Asia,
in particular India ,China,Korea,Thailand
consumption growth will the
driving force of lldPE
consumption in this segment
11%
In terms of volume
production and consumption
growth will also be attributed
to the Asian lldPEconsumption growth in this
segment in 2012-
2022,especially in
India,Thailand,Indonesia and
China
There is anticipated an
increasing quantity of
lldPE consumption in
special injection
moulding applications in
compounds withelastomers and/or
plastomers for high tech
applications ,including
metallocene blends
SRI
Consulting,Menl
o Park
California
8
7/30/2019 lldPE global
9/25
3
Global lldPE consumption for
rotomoulding will show a
dynamic development between
2012 and 2022,when the main
driving factor will be the Asian
and South American continent
5 % weight
In terms of absolute volumes
China and India will lead the
way for this application,whenin China the relative share of
rotomoulded lldPE will be
about 3% as opposed to
India,where this segments
lldPE consumption will
account for about 6% of thetotal Indian lldPE
consumption
Globally the share of
rotomoulding grade lldPE in
between 2012 and 2022 will
be about about 5%
High quality,including
special grades of lldPEfor the flexible
packaging and some
sectors of rotomoulding
processing are expected
to be exported especially
by the revamped NorthAmerican capacities
SRI
Consulting,Menl
o Park
California
4
Wire and cable applications willremain a minor driving segment
for the total glopal lldPE
consumption between 2012 and
2022
5%
Special grades of wire and
gable grade lldPE polymers
will applied in the wire and
cable sector mainly in someregions of West
Europe,USD,Japan and Korea
as well as in other countries of
the Pacific Rims Asia
part,this segment includes
mainly C6 type lldPE
In Asia the wire and cablesector will consume larger
quantities of lower grade as
well as increasing quantities of
high-end type lldPE
The consumption of
lldPE in the wire andcable industry will be
driven by the use of
metallocene type
material based on
proprietary technology
SRI
Consulting,Menl
o Park
California
5 Other applications 2% This segment will shrunk toabout 2% in global terms
5 Total 100%
9
7/30/2019 lldPE global
10/25
5b ( 2012-
2022 . ) negative scenario
\
, %,
100% -
%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1
Consumption of lldPE C4 based
shrink films primarily for
flexible packaging , especially inChina -production andconsumption ;in global terms
there is estimated cca. 75%of
lldPE consumed will be C4 type
material,about 15% C6 type and
the remaining 10% will be
provided by C8 octene typelldPE with metallocene types
production growing less thananticipated ;
77% weight
The slower development of
the Asian,especially Chinese
and Indian flexible packaging
industry will be the main
factors of Asias lldPEconsumption slowdown to3,7% in 2012-
2022,accounting for about
50% of the total global lldPE
consumption in 2012-2022 ;in
India the prevailing lldPE type
will remain the C4 basedpolymer similarly as in
China,wher the predictedgrowth rate of C6 type lldPE
consumption will not
materialize.
77%
The Asian lldPE consumption
slowdown of 3,7% isattributed mainly to theChinese and Indian lldPE
production and consumption
slowdown despite these
negative numbers, China as
well as India will become
more and more selfsustainable in lldPE
production,although in termsof volumes still large
quantities of lldPE will be
imported from the Middle East
and North America
As seen,the lldPE use for
extrusion as well as
special blown filmapplications will be themajor driving segment of
the global lldPE
consumption in 2012 and
2022 ,when in this
negative scenario the
share of metallocenetype lldPE in the total
global consumption oflldPE will be about 17%
SRIConsulting,Menl
o Park
California
2 Consumption of lldPE by
injection moulding processing
technology
11% weight In 2012-2022 the production
of injection moulded lldPE
parts accounts for about 11%
of the total global lldPE
consumption,especially Asia,
11%
In terms of volume
production and consumption
There is anticipated an
increasing quantity of
lldPE consumption in
special injection
moulding applications in
SRIConsulting,Menl
o Park
California
10
7/30/2019 lldPE global
11/25
in particular India ,
China,Korea,Thailand
consumption growth will thedriving force of lldPE
consumption in this segment
drop will also be attributed to
the Asian lldPE consumptiongrowth of just 3,7%
compounds with
elastomers and/or
plastomers for high techapplications ,including
metallocene blends
3
Global lldPE consumption for
rotomoulding will show a
slowing down developmentbetween 2012 and
2022,especially because of the
accumulated macroeconomic
problems of the US and Europe
pulling along to a certain extentAsia,too
5 % weight
In terms of absolute volumesChina and India will lead the
way for this application,when
in China the relative share ofrotomoulded lldPE will be
about 4% as opposed to
India,where this segments
lldPE consumption will
account for about 5% of thetotal Indian lldPE
consumption
Globally the share of
rotomoulding grade lldPE in
between 2012 and 2022 will
be about about 5%
High quality,including
special grades of lldPEfor the flexible
packaging and somesectors of rotomoulding
processing are expected
to be exported especially
by the established
Middle East ;largely
speaking East ofSuez,including Iran
regional capacities
SRIConsulting,Menl
o Park
California
4
Wire and cable applications willremain a minor driving segment
for the total glopal lldPEconsumption between 2012 and
2022
5%
Special grades of wire and
gable grade lldPE polymerswill applied in the wire and
cable sector mainly in some
regions of WestEurope,USD,Japan and Korea
as well as in other countries of
the Pacific Rims Asia
part,this segment includes
mainly C6 type lldPE
In Asia the wire and cablesector will consume larger
quantities of lower grade aswell as increasing quantities of
high-end type lldPE
The consumption of
lldPE in the wire andcable industry will be
driven by the use ofmetallocene type
material based on
proprietary technology
SRIConsulting,Menl
o Park
California
5 Other applications 2%This segment will shrunk to
about 2% in global terms
SRIConsulting,Menl
o Park
California
Total 100%
11
7/30/2019 lldPE global
12/25
6 ( 2012-2022 .
)-base scenario
\
, %,
100% -
%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 European Naphtha pricing LldPE price
movement,change/in % of value/
-13%
The-13% lldPE price
drop Europeanticipating a
stagnating lldPEconsumption,while
the production willbe based partly on
captive
naphtha,imported
naphtha and
70%
Dependence on naphthaderived ethylene price ,in
other words lldPE price willbe dependent as much as 70%
on naphtha price,the rerst of30% is provided by imported
ethane price
As mentioned, there is
anticipated that lldPEprice to a certain extent
decouples from thenaphtha price due to
prognosticated ethaneimports ,in other words
there is anticipated
Europe faces further raw
material difficulties to a
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park Calif SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
ornia
12
7/30/2019 lldPE global
13/25
foremost on
imported
ethane/NorthAmerica/ /or
ethylene
certain extent alleviated
by North Americanethane imports
2
Asian plus Middle East ethane
pricing plus Middle Eastimported ethane based lldPE
pricing and
lldPE pricemovement,change/in
% of value / -8%
For the Asian
continentlldPEprices are projected
to drop by -8%-10%because of some
decoupling from
naphtha prices and
moving toward
ethane /including
major new Thailandethane based
ethylene
capacities/
,coal,methanol and
unconventional
renewable as lldPE
production
productionfeedstock,especially
in China
50% price dependence on
naphtha prices,the rest of 40%is provided by dependences
on ethane as well as mainly
cola and methanol prices
It is expected in the total
Asian lldPE production
/including Middle East/
about 40% of lldPE totalproduced would come
from ethane,cca 50%
from naphtha and 10%
from unconventional raw
material
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
3 CIS region naphtha pricing
lldPE price
movement,/change
in % of value/ -1%
For the CIS region
there is projected a-1% lldPE price
drop attributed to thefull upstream raw
material integration
of the local lldPE
producer
Approximately70%
For this period there isanticipated that 70% of
lldPE produced would bebased on naphtha derived
ethylene ,the rest of
30%on ethane
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
4 South and Central America
naphtha and ethane pricing
lldPE price
movement,change in%of value / -6%
The Central and
South AmericanlldPE price will drop
by 6% mainly
because of raw
materialdiversification
70% In Central and South
America about 70 % oftotal lldPE produced
will come from
naphtha,25% from
ethane and the rest 5%from renewable raw
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
13
7/30/2019 lldPE global
14/25
efforts/especially
ethane and sugar
cane derivedethanol/
materials
5North America naphtha pricing,
North America ethane pricing
lldPE price
movement,change in
% of value /-30%
The North American
lldPE price will be a
mix of prices basedpartly on naphtha
but foremost and
primarily on ethanederived ethylene,this
this price will be
composed of cca.
80% ethane and
20% naphthaprices;therefore
there is expected a
lldPE price drop by
probably more than
5%,projected in this
base scenario
80% deepndance on ethane
pricing
In North America about80% of lldPE produced
would come from the so
intensely and
vehemently advertised
new shale gas ethane ifeverything goes
well.. ???
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
14
7/30/2019 lldPE global
15/25
7a ( 2012-2022 .
) positive scenario
\
, %,
100% -
%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 European Naphtha pricing
lldPE pricemovement,change
/in % of value/
-13%
The-13% lldPE pricedrop Europe
anticipating a
stagnating lldPE
consumption,while
the production will
be based partly oncaptive
naphtha,importednaphtha and
foremost onimported
ethane/North
America/ /or
ethylene
70%
Dependence on naphtha
derived ethylene price ,in
other words lldPE price willbe dependent as much as 70%
on naphtrha price,the rerst of
30% is provided by imported
ethane price
As mentioned, there is
anticipated that lldPE
price to a certain extent
decouples from the
naphtha price due to
prognosticated ethaneimports ,in other words
there is anticipatedEurope faces further raw
material difficulties to acertain extent alleviated
by North American
ethane imports
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
2 Asian plus Middle East ethane
pricing plus Middle East
imported ethane based lldPE
pricing and
lldPE price
movement,change/in
% of value / -8%
For the Asian
continentlldPE
prices are projected
to drop by -8%-10%because of some
decoupling fromnaphtha prices and
moving toward
ethane /includingmajor new Thailand
ethane based
ethylenecapacities/
50% price dependence on
naphtha prices,the rest of 40%
is provided by dependences
on ethane as well as mainlycola and methanol prices
It is expected in the total
Asian lldPE production
/including Middle East/
about 40% of lldPE totalproduced would come
from ethane,cca 50%from naphtha and 10%
from unconventional raw
material
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
15
7/30/2019 lldPE global
16/25
,coal,methanol and
unconventional
renewable as lldPEproduction
production
feedstock,especially
in China
3 CIS region naphtha pricing
lldPE price
movement,/change
in % of value/ -1%
For the CIS region
there is projected a
-1% lldPE pricedrop attributed to the
full upstream raw
material integration
of the local lldPE
producer
Approximately
70%
For this period there is
anticipated that 70% oflldPE produced would be
based on naphtha derived
ethylene ,the rest of
30%on ethane
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
4South and Central Americanaphtha and ethane pricing
lldPE price
movement,change in%of value / -6%
The Central and
South American
lldPE price will drop
by 6% mainlybecause of raw
materialdiversification
efforts/especially
ethane and sugar
cane derived
ethanol/
70%
In Central and South
America about 70 % oftotal lldPE produced
will come fromnaphtha,25% from
ethane and the rest 5%from renewable raw
materials
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
5 North America naphtha pricing,
North America ethane pricing
lldPE price
movement,change in
% of value /-4%-
5%
The North American
lldPE price will be a
mix of prices based
partly on naphtha
but foremost and
primarily on ethane
derived ethylene,thisthis price will be
composed of cca.80% ethane and
20% naphtha
prices;therefore
there is expected alldPE price drop by
80% dependance on ethane
pricing
In North America about
80% of lldPE produced
would come from the so
intensely and vehemently
advertised new shale gas
ethane if everything
goes well.. ???
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
16
7/30/2019 lldPE global
17/25
probably more than
5%,projected in this
base scenario
8b ( 2012-2022 .
) negative scenario
\
, %,
100% -
%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 European Naphtha pricing lldPE price
movement,change/in % of value/
There will be a
-11% lldPE pricedrop in Europe
85 In Europe,according to
this scenario there isanticipated about 5% of
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
17
7/30/2019 lldPE global
18/25
-11%,but in absolute
terms and values the
price of lldPE willbe higher by aboutcca. 4%-5% in
comparison with the
base scenario
anticipating a
dereasing lldPE
production based onimported ethane
and/or ethylene/see
Ineos ethane
investments at
Bamble and in
particular
Antwerpen to importethane and ethyleneto Europe from the
US,Middle East/
,thus in comparison
with the base
scenario there will
be more lldPEproduced based on
naphtha derivedethylene
lldPE might be produced
from imported
ethane/ethylene based
raw material ,the restfrom naphtha so a sligheasing on price pressure
but still not enough/this
is why this is a negative
scenario for Europe
2 Asian ethane pricing
lldPE price
movement,change/in
% of value -8%/
For the Asian
continent lldPEprices are projected
to drop by 8% first
of all because the
increased amounts
of lldPE produced
from ethylene basedethane,by
unconventionalprocesses of CTM
ans well as CTO in
particular in China
80
It is expected in the total
Asian lldPE production
/including Middle East/about 40% of lldPE total
produced would come
from ethane,cca 50%
from naphtha and 10%
from unconventional raw
material,thus naphthapressure on lldPE prices
will not be so muchdominant ,but
stillremains the primary
raw material for lldPE
production
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
3 CIS region naphtha pricing LldPE price
movement,/change
in % of value/ 1%
For the CIS region
there is projected a
1% price rise
attributed to the full
upstream raw
90 For this period there is
anticipated that 90% of
lldPE produced would
be based on naphtha
derived ethylene
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
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material integration
of the local MEG
producer
4South and Central Americanaphtha and ethane pricing
lldPE pricemovement,change in
%of value / -1%
The Central and
South American
lldPE price will
drop by 1% mainlybecause of the
dominant character
of naphtha asprincipal feedstock
90
In Central and South
America about 90 % of
total lldPE producedwill come from
naphtha,10% from
ethane and renewableraw materials
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
5North America naphtha pricing,North America ethane pricing
lldPE price
movement,change in% of value /-2%
The North American
lldPE price will be amix of prices based
on naphtha and
ethane derived
ethylene,which will
be composed of cca.
35% ethane derivedprices;therefore
there is expected amedium drop of
-2% drop/some
ethane projected
lldPE plants will not
be built at all or
suffer delay,orethane will be
primarily exported
55% dependence on naphthapricing
In North America about45% of lldPE produced
would come from the sointensely advertised new
shale gas ethane and therest from naphtha ;
SRIConsulting,Menlo
Park California
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, 2007-2011 . ( 2).
20
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21/25
9 2012-2022
\
*1
*1
*1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
. ,
, .
: .
, 2007-2011 . ( 1).
(, ) ,
. , , .!!! .
*1 , 2012-2022 ., , 3% .
, , . .
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
.
21
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22/25
10 2012-2022
\
*1
*1
*1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
. ,
, .
: .
, 2007-2011 . ( 2).
(, ) ,
. , ,
.!!! .
*1 , 2012-2022 ., , 3% .
, , . .
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
.
22
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23/25
.
, . , .
, 2012 .
bn=(bn-1)*Kbn ,
bn (2012 ) ;
(bn-1) , ;
Kbn , (
, . ).
, 2012 .
on=(bn-1)*Kbn*Won ,
23
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24/25
on (2012 ) ;
(bn-1) ,
Kbn , (
, . ));
Won - , (
5%, 1% ( 4%). ,
, 1% 5%, , Won 1,05.
rbn= bn*R
rbn (2012 ) ;
24
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25/25
bn (2012 ) ;
R ( 2011).
25