Llad Phillips1 Jobs and Crime. Llad Phillips2 A theme for this course US and CA criminal justice systems will be case studies, but are there larger issues

Llad Phillips 1

Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime

Llad Phillips 2

A theme for this courseA theme for this course US and CA criminal justice systems will be US and CA criminal justice systems will be

case studies, but are there larger issues about case studies, but are there larger issues about the public sector?the public sector?

Llad Phillips 3

Llad Phillips 4

Llad Phillips 5

Public Sector

Health

Safety

Civics

Education

Llad Phillips 6

What determines the quality of life in a nation, a state or a locality? What determines the quality of life in a nation, a state or a locality?

The distribution of GDP between the public and private sectors?

Llad Phillips 7

Total Tax Burden As % of GDP, 2004Google Forbes overall tax burdenTotal Tax Burden As % of GDP, 2004Google Forbes overall tax burden

Country Total Tax burden

Sweden 50.7%

France 43.7

UK 36.1

Germany 34.8

Canada 33.0

Switzerland 29.4

USA 25.5

Mexico 18.5

Llad Phillips 8

Public Vs. Private GoodsPublic Vs. Private Goods

Labor for Public Goods

Labor for

Private Goods

Contraint

Labor, Private

Private

Goods

Production Function

Llad Phillips 9

L, public

Output, Public

L, Private

Output, PrivateProduction Possibility Frontier

Llad Phillips 10

L, public

Output, Public

L, Private

Output, PrivateProduction Possibility Frontier

Llad Phillips 11

Private

Public

Sweden

UK

USMexico

Canada

Llad Phillips 12

Production Possibility FrontierProduction Possibility FrontierPRIVATE

PUBLIC

Inefficient

Does the global economyCause a bias towards Private instead of publicGoods and services?

Llad Phillips 13

Production Possibility FrontierProduction Possibility Frontier

Public Goods:Defense

Public Goods: Health

Inefficient

Does being the world’sPoliceman cause a bias Away from other public Goods and services?

Llad Phillips 14

Expenditures Per PupilExpenditures Per PupilFiscalFiscal

YearYear

70-7170-71 80-8180-81 90-9190-91 00-0100-01 03-0403-04 05-0605-06

CACA

RankRank

1414 1919 2828 2525 2828 3535

NominalNominal

$, CA$, CA

902902 24382438 45954595 69866986 76737673 86078607

USUS 842842 23072307 49024902 73737373 83108310 95769576

Llad Phillips 15

Production Possibility FrontierProduction Possibility Frontier

Public Goods:Prison Operation

Public Goods: education

Inefficient

Which would you rather do (1) keep the 30% ofstate prisoners who are pot-heads locked up, or(2) educate your kids?

Llad Phillips 16

US PoliticsUS Politics ““It’s the economy stupid!”It’s the economy stupid!” Issues in 2008Issues in 2008

Human capital and educationHuman capital and education The family and social conservativesThe family and social conservatives

Huck & ChuckHuck & Chuck MittMitt

Llad Phillips 17

31.0%7.3%

31.0/33.8~8.6 decline

Llad Phillips 18

33.8%

5.8%

7.3/5.8 ~ 26% rise

Llad Phillips 19

The Economy and CrimeThe Economy and Crime

Is crime affected by the business cycle?Is crime affected by the business cycle? Do economic factors cause crime?Do economic factors cause crime?

Llad Phillips 20

Where is the economy headed?Survey of Professional Forecastershttp://www.phil.frb.org/files/spf/survq407.html

Where is the economy headed?Survey of Professional Forecastershttp://www.phil.frb.org/files/spf/survq407.html

Llad Phillips 21

Governor’s Budget Summary 2008-09

Jan 1990 Jan 2007

Llad Phillips 22

California Forecasts & Record: Umemployment rate: CA Dept. of FinanceCalifornia Forecasts & Record: Umemployment rate: CA Dept. of Finance

YearYear 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010

CACA 6.2%6.2% 5.4%5.4% 4.9%4.9% 5.3%5.3% 5.7%5.7% 5.6%5.6% 5.5%5.5%

USUS 5.5%5.5% 5.1%5.1% 4.6%4.6% 4.6%4.6% 5.0%5.0% 5.0%5.0% 4.8%4.8%

Llad Phillips 23

OutlineOutline Seriousness SurveySeriousness Survey

What can we learn from the survey?What can we learn from the survey? Crime FileCrime File

VictimsVictims Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime

Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime Why do some people get involved with crime?Why do some people get involved with crime?

Llad Phillips 24

Class Survey 2009 Vs. Sample 2008Class Survey 2009 Vs. Sample 2008

Scoring Ten BehaviorsScoring Ten Behaviors 103 responses in ’09, 97 responses in ‘08103 responses in ’09, 97 responses in ‘08

Llad Phillips 25

SERIOUSNESS SURVEY

RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS):

MEDIAN ‘08 ‘091. HOMICIDE _10 10__2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _ 9 10__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _ 10 10__4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _ 8 7__5. SELLING HEROIN _ 7 7__6. AUTO THEFT _ 6 6__7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _ 5 6__8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _ 4 4__9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 2 1__10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 1 1__

Llad Phillips 26

ConclusionsConclusions Consistency from year to year Triage is possible: we can separate the more

serious behaviors from the less serious behaviors

Llad Phillips 27

0

20

40

60

80

100

1.25 2.50 3.75 5.00 6.25 7.50 8.75 10.00

Series: HOMICIDESample 1 103Observations 103

Mean 9.650485Median 10.00000Maximum 10.00000Minimum 1.000000Std. Dev. 1.117672Skewness -5.249860Kurtosis 37.30991

Jarque-Bera 5525.152Probability 0.000000

Histogram Distribution of Homicide Scores, Econ 160 W 2009

Distribution of Homicide ScoresDistribution of Homicide Scores

One 1 One 6

One 7

Six 8’s

Four 9’s

Median: 52nd Person

90

Llad Phillips 28

Histogram of Homicide Sores, '08

0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 3 7

84

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness Score

Fre

qu

en

cy

Mode = 10, most likely numberMedian = 10, score of 49th or middle person

Llad Phillips 29

Average scores 2001 and 2002

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Score 2001

Sco

re 2

002

Llad Phillips 30



For serious behaviors, a clear majority view For example, for homicide 102 out of 103 score

it between 6 and 10, while 100 out of 103 score it between 8 and 10

Llad Phillips 31

Homicide Mean with 95% Confidence interval

8.4

8.6

8.8

9

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10

10.2

10.4

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Number of Students

Sc

ore

lower

mean

upper

Central Limit theorem in ActionCentral Limit theorem in Action

6 12 2550 103

Llad Phillips 32

Density Function for the Standardized Normal Variate

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Standard Deviations

Den

sity

2]1/)0[(2/1*]2/1[)( zezf

2.5%2.5%mean

Llad Phillips 33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Series: RAPESample 1 103Observations 103

Mean 9.242718Median 10.00000Maximum 10.00000Minimum 4.000000Std. Dev. 1.150158Skewness -1.960168Kurtosis 7.483749


Histogram of the distribution of Rape Scores, Econ 160 W 2009

59

25

Llad Phillips 34

Mode: 10Median: 10

Histogram: Forcible Rape Scores, '08

0 0 0 0 0 0 15

10

20

61

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness Scores

Fre

qu

en

cy

Llad Phillips 35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Series: POTSample 1 103Observations 103

Mean 1.980583Median 1.000000Maximum 8.000000Minimum 0.000000Std. Dev. 1.965290Skewness 1.327678Kurtosis 4.383029


Histogram of Distribution of Possession of Pot Scores, Econ 160 W 2009

3

1

54 3

The Vocal Minority: sixteen score Pot highThe Vocal Minority: sixteen score Pot high

Llad Phillips 36

Histogram: Possession of Pot, Scores

2123

14 15

7 6 7

2 1 0 10

5

10

15

20

25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness Scores

Fre

qu

ency

Mode: 1Median: 2

Llad Phillips 37

Center of the Scores DistributionCenter of the Scores Distribution

Mode: most likelyMode: most likely Median: middle personMedian: middle person Average: sum of scores divided by total Average: sum of scores divided by total

number of peoplenumber of people

Llad Phillips 38

John Tukey: Box Plot for Sniffing Glue Econ 160 W 2009John Tukey: Box Plot for Sniffing Glue Econ 160 W 2009

Smallest = 0

Q1 = 0

Median = 1

Q3 = 3

Largest = 10

IQR = 3

Outliers: 10, 10, 10, 9, 8, 8, 8,

Median16 folks score as 4 or above

73 folks score as 2 0r below Fight for 14 3’s

Llad Phillips 39



For serious behaviors, a clear majority view For example, for homicide 102 out of 103 score

it between 6 and 10, while 100 out of 103 score it between 8 and 10

The less serious behaviors are more controversial!

Llad Phillips 40

Dispersion of Scores DistributionDispersion of Scores Distribution

Measures of dispersionMeasures of dispersion Standard deviationStandard deviation Inter-quartile rangeInter-quartile range Range: Maximum - MinimumRange: Maximum - Minimum

Llad Phillips 41

SERIOUSNESS SURVEY


Minimum, Maximum1. HOMICIDE _2, 102. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _0, 1010 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _6, 104. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _2, 105. SELLING HEROIN _0, 106. AUTO THEFT _3, 107. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _0, 98. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _0, 109. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _0, 1010. SNIFFING GLUE _0, 8

Llad Phillips 42

Dispersion (Disagreement) Versus Seriousness, 2008

Sniffing Glue

ProstitutePossess Pot

Arson

Forcible Rape

Homicide

y = -0.095x + 2.4217

R2 = 0.3905

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Seriousness Score

Sta

nd

ard

Dev

iati

on

The more serious the behavior, the less disagreement about policy

The more serious the behavior, the less disagreement about policy

Llad Phillips 43

Dispersion Versus Seriousness, W 06

Possession of Pot

Sniffi ng Glue

Prostitution

Embezzlement

Auto Theft

Heroin

Arson

Rape

Poisoning

Homicide

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Median

P

Policy is easier

Policy is more difficult

Llad Phillips 44

Bureau of Justice Statistics,Report to the Nation

The Alternativep.170

One more step: converting seriousness scores to a metric (years of sentence or Loss rate of $)

The Economics of Crime Control, Ch. 4

Llad Phillips 45

Mapping Seriousness Scores Into Dollars, 2008

Sniffing Glue

Embezzlement of $ 1000

Homicide

$0.10

$1.00

$10.00

$100.00

$1,000.00

$10,000.00

$100,000.00

$1,000,000.00

$10,000,000.00

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Seriousness Scores

Lo

ss R

ate

Source: $ 1.54 Million (1990), Orley Ashenfelter, Princeton,Based on highway safety

Llad Phillips 46

Types of CrimeTypes of Crime

Motivation: self-interest, greedMotivation: self-interest, greed Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft, Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft,

larcenylarceny White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion, White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion,

check fraud, telephone fraudcheck fraud, telephone fraud Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant, Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant,

beyond control of parentsbeyond control of parents Black Market: gambling, prostitution,drugsBlack Market: gambling, prostitution,drugs

Llad Phillips 47

Types of CrimeTypes of Crime Motivation: Hate, RageMotivation: Hate, Rage

Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, raperape

Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, terrorismterrorism

Hate CrimesHate Crimes Columbine HighColumbine High James Byrd: dragging death in TexasJames Byrd: dragging death in Texas Jewish Community Center in Granada HillsJewish Community Center in Granada Hills

Llad Phillips 48

Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime

Llad Phillips 49

Llad Phillips 50

Questions About CrimeQuestions About Crime

Does the Business Cycle Affect Crime Does the Business Cycle Affect Crime Rates?Rates?

Does an Individual’s Life Cycle Affect Does an Individual’s Life Cycle Affect Crime Rates?Crime Rates?

Why do some people live socially Why do some people live socially unproductive lives?unproductive lives?

Llad Phillips 51

Two Points About Economic Conditions and CrimeTwo Points About Economic Conditions and Crime Relationship of Crime to the Business CycleRelationship of Crime to the Business Cycle

Short RunShort Run: Business Cycle: Business Cycle Is Phil Cook wrong?Is Phil Cook wrong? California: the misery index and crimeCalifornia: the misery index and crime

misery index = unemployment rate + inflation ratemisery index = unemployment rate + inflation rate

Relationship of Crime to the Life CycleRelationship of Crime to the Life Cycle Long RunLong Run Investment in EducationInvestment in Education Role of the FamilyRole of the Family

Llad Phillips 52

California Unemployment Rate and Inflation Rate, 1952-2004

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Pe

r C

en

t

unemployment rate

inflation rate

misery rate

Llad Phillips 53

CA Crime Index Per 1000 and Misery Index (Percent), 1952-2004

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ra

te

Misery index

CA Crime Index

Llad Phillips 54

CA Crime Index(t) = a +b*Misery Index(t)CA Crime Index(t) = a +b*Misery Index(t)

-0.015

-0.010

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00

Residual Actual Fitted

CA Crime Index Per Capita Versus Misery Index

Llad Phillips 55

CA Crime Index Per 1000 Vs. Misery Index

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Misery Index

Cri

me

Ind

ex

2002

1952

1980

1954

California: Crime Index Versus Misery Index .

y = -0.1702x 2 + 6.0493x - 16.491

R2 = 0.7761

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Misery Index

Cri

me I

nd

ex

Observed Data

Quadratic Fit

US Unemployment Rates, Males, Seasonally Adjusted .

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Ja

n-8

9

Jul-

89

Jan

-90

Jul-

90

Jan

-91

Jul-

91

Jan

-92

Jul-

92

Jan

-93

Jul-

93

Jan

-94

Jul-

94

Jan

-95

Jul-

95

Jan

-96

Jul-

96

Jan

-97

Jul-

97

Jan

-98

Jul-

98

Jan

-99

Jul-

99

Date

Rate

White, 20 plus

Black, 20 plus

Unemployment Rates, Seasonally Adjusted, Males 16-19 .

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Feb

-89

Au

g-8

9

Feb

-90

Au

g-9

0

Feb

-91

Au

g-9

1

Feb

-92

Au

g-9

2

Feb

-93

Au

g-9

3

Feb

-94

Au

g-9

4

Feb

-95

Au

g-9

5

Feb

-96

Au

g-9

6

Feb

-97

Au

g-9

7

Feb

-98

Au

g-9

8

Feb

-99

Au

g-9

9

Date

Rate

White Male 16-19

Black Male 16-19

Llad Phillips 59

Why do people work in labor market?Why do people work in labor market?

Tastes? Assume everybody has the same tastes! Human capital: earning power

Education Work experience Health

Llad Phillips 60

An Individual’s Life Cycle for a Socially Productive LifeAn Individual’s Life Cycle for a Socially Productive Life Learning over the life cycleLearning over the life cycle Accumulating earning power or human Accumulating earning power or human

capitalcapital Earnings depend uponEarnings depend upon

abilityability knowledgeknowledge work experiencework experience

Llad Phillips 61

Productive Life Cycle

Social Institution

Family - PreSchool - School - College - Job - Retirement

Function

Learning: Accumulating Human Capital - Earning - Spending

Age Line

0 4 6 18 23 65

Llad Phillips 62

Accumulating Human Capital

Inflow OutflowStock

Llad Phillips 63


StockInflow +

-

OutflowNet Inflow

Llad Phillips 64


HumanCapital

Learning +

-

DepreciationInvestment

Llad Phillips 65

Allocation of Your Time

Human Capital

Build Capitalby Learning

Use Capitalfor Earning

Llad Phillips 66

Time Endowment

24 hours

Llad Phillips 67

24 hours0 hoursLeisure(learning)

Llad Phillips 68

Allocation of Your Time

Human Capital

Build Capitalby Learning

Use Capitalfor Earning

Llad Phillips 69


Earnings

$480 Opportunities for trading leisurefor earnings (income) at a rate,$20 per hour, determined by yourstock of human capital

$ 0

Llad Phillips 70

Salaries by Education Level, CAFull Time* WorkersSalaries by Education Level, CAFull Time* WorkersEducation Salary WageNo HS Dipl. $26,115 $13.06 HS Dipl. $27,326 $13.69Bachelor’s $44,426 $26.39Master’s $52,787 $26.97Doctorate $59,348 $29.67Professional $77,877 $38.94

*Full Time: >35 hrs/wk, >48 wks/yr.; Source: LA Times, 1-10-93


Earnings

$480

$ 0

$240

dropout

college grad

Llad Phillips 72

Economists Assume You Can make ComparisonsEconomists Assume You Can make Comparisons For example: you can compare a high level For example: you can compare a high level

of your income and a low level of your of your income and a low level of your leisure leisure withwith a low level of your income and a low level of your income and a high level of your leisurea high level of your leisure


Earnings

$480

$ 0

Iso-Preference Curves:You value all points on a curve equally

high

low value

high value


Earnings

$480

$ 0

high

low value

high value

Optimum

15 hoursof leisure

$180for 9 hrsof work


Earnings

$480

$ 0

high

low value

slope of the iso-preference curve through the 24 hour endowment is the lowest wage at which you are willing to work


Earnings

$480

$ 0

high

low value


$96

dropout is unwilling to work for $4/hr

Llad Phillips 77

Participation in the Labor Force:Willing to look for workParticipation in the Labor Force:Willing to look for work If your market wage exceeds your If your market wage exceeds your

reservation wagereservation wage college grad, @$20/hr, participatescollege grad, @$20/hr, participates the junior high dropout, @ $4/hr, does notthe junior high dropout, @ $4/hr, does not

We assumed the college grad and the We assumed the college grad and the dropout both have the same values for dropout both have the same values for income and leisureincome and leisure

Only their learning histories differ Only their learning histories differ


Earnings

$480

$ 0

high

low value


$96

dropout is unwilling to work for $4/hr

Llad Phillips 79

Hazards to Personal SuccessHazards to Personal Success

Dropping outDropping out Joining gangsJoining gangs Anti-social behavior Anti-social behavior

Llad Phillips 81

Productive Life Cycle

Social Institution

Family - PreSchool - School - College - Job - Retirement

Function

Learning: Accumulating Human Capital - Earning - Spending

Age Line

0 4 6 18 23 65

Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes

Choice

Legal work

Illegal work


Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)

Not Apprehended(succeed)


Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)


0.1

0.9

$0

$12,000/yr

0.2

0.8

$0

$14,000

Expected legal Income = 0.9*$12,000 = $10,800


Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)


0.1

0.9

$0

$12,000/yr

0.2

0.8

$0

$14,000/yr

Expected illegal income = 0.8*$14,000 = $11,200



Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)


0.1

0.9

$0

$12,000/yr

0.2

0.8

$0

$14,000/yr


0.05

0.95

Llad Phillips 87

Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain a full-employment economyMaintain a full-employment economy



Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)


0.1

0.9

$0

$12,000/yr

0.2

0.8

$0

$14,000/yr


0.3

0.7

Llad Phillips 89

Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice

SystemSystem keep the probability of apprehension highkeep the probability of apprehension high



Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)


0.1

0.9

$0

$12,000/yr

0.2

0.8

-$3,000 (fine)

$14,000/yrExpected illegal income = 0.8*$14,000 - 0.2*$3,000 = $10,600

$0

Llad Phillips 91

Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Punish the criminalPunish the criminal

make crime less attractivemake crime less attractive

Llad Phillips 92

Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain a full-employment economyMaintain a full-employment economy Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice

SystemSystem keep the probability of apprehension highkeep the probability of apprehension high

Punish the criminalPunish the criminal make crime less attractivemake crime less attractive

Llad Phillips 93

SummarySummary

Your economic status affects your probable Your economic status affects your probable behavior: work or crimebehavior: work or crime

Earning power affects your probable Earning power affects your probable behaviorbehavior

When you are are a young teen you need a When you are are a young teen you need a parent or role model to motivate you to stay parent or role model to motivate you to stay in school and keep learningin school and keep learning

Llad Phillips 94

Llad Phillips 95

Number of Responses Versus Score for Homicide

1 30 0 0 0 1 2 1

15

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Score

Nu

mb

er2003

Llad Phillips 96

Class Survey 2003Class Survey 2003

Scoring Ten BehaviorsScoring Ten Behaviors 113 Responses113 Responses No two are the sameNo two are the same Two most similar responsesTwo most similar responses Two most different responsesTwo most different responses

Llad Phillips 97

Similar ScoringsSimilar ScoringsHomicide 10 10Poisoning 10 10Rape 10 10Arson 7 8Sell Heroin 7 5Auto Theft 4 7Embezzle 4 4Prostitute 5 2Possess Pot 3 1Sniff Glue 0 0

Llad Phillips 98

Different ScoringsDifferent ScoringsHomicide 10 1Poisoning 10 5Rape 10 2Arson 10 4Sell Heroin 8 3Auto Theft 9 6Embezzle 7 7Prostitute 7 8Possess Pot 5 9Sniff Glue 8 10

Llad Phillips 99

Number of Responses Versus Score for Homicide

1 30 0 0 0 1 2 1

15

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Score

Nu

mb

er2003

Llad Phillips 100

Dispersion Versus Median Score, 2003

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Median Score

Dis

per

sio

n

Llad Phillips 101

Econ 160 Fall 99 Class Ratings .

Sniff Glue

MarijuanaProstitute

Embezzlement

Sell HeroinAuto Theft

ArsonPoisoning

RapeHomicide

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

Standard Deviation: Dispersion

Mea

n R

atin

g

Llad Phillips 102

SERIOUSNESS SURVEY


MEDIAN ‘03 ‘051. HOMICIDE _10 10__2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _ 9 8__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _ 9 9__4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _ 7 7__5. SELLING HEROIN _ 6 6__6. AUTO THEFT _ 5.5 6__7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _ 4 4__8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _ 3 3__9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 2 2__10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 1 1__

Llad Phillips 103

Misery Index, California 1952-2003

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

year

Rat

e

unemployment rate

inflation rate

misery index

Llad Phillips 104

California Misery Index and Crime Index, 1952-2002

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ra

te

CA Misery Index

CA Crime Index Per 1000

California: Crime Index Versus Misery Index .

1970

1992

1975

1998

1980

1952

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Misery Index

Cri

me I

nd

ex

Llad Phillips 106

How best to Learn in a Lecture classThat does notHave a Section?

We RecommendGoing to class.The questionsOn the examsAre from topicsDiscussed inClass.

How much math does 160 require?

1.Descriptive Graphs2. AnalyticalGraphs (exams)3. Notation e.gOF=f(CR,SE,SV)

Llad Phillips 107

Homicide, W 06, 61 Respondents

0 0 0 0 1 0 0 07

53

0102030405060

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness

Fre

qu

ency

Mode = 10, largest number of responsesMedian = 10, score of 31st person

Llad Phillips 108

Homicide, W 05, 98 Respondents

1 2 0 1 0 0 1 3

16

74

0

20

40

60

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness

Fre

qu

ency

Mode = 10, largest number of responsesMedian = 10, score of 49th person

Llad Phillips 109

Number of Responses Versus Score for Homicide 2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Score

Res

po

nse

s

1 1 3

14

73

Llad Phillips 110

Rape, W 05, 98 Respondents

0 0 1 0 1 4 7

19

39

27

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness

Fre

qu

en

cy

Mode = 9Median = 9

Llad Phillips 111

Possession of Marijuana, W 06, 61 Respondents

33

96

25

2 2 1 0 10

10

20

30

40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness

Fre

qu

en

cy

Mode = 1Median = 1

Llad Phillips 112

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

23

31

27

10

7

4 4 5

2

0 00

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Fre

qu

enc

y

Score

Number of Responses Vs. Possession of Pot Score ‘02

Llad Phillips 113

Disagreement Versus Seriousness, 02

Arson

Selling Heroin

Auto Theft

Embezzle

Mass Poisoning

Rape

Homicide

Prostitute

Possess Pot

Sniff Glue

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Score

Dis

per

sio

n (

Sta

nd

ard

Dev

iati

on

)

Homicide2004

Seriousness Scores, Spring 2001 .

Auto Theft

Arson

Selling Heroin

PoisoningMarijuana

Prostitute

Sniffing Glue

Rape

Homicide

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Average

Embezzlement

Sta

ndar

d D

evia

tion

or

Dis

pers

ion

Llad Phillips 115

John Tukey: Box Plot for Pot ‘09John Tukey: Box Plot for Pot ‘09

Smallest = 0

Q1 = 1

Median = 1

Q3 = 3

Largest = 8

IQR = 2

Outliers: 8, 8, 8, 7,

Llad Phillips 116

Documents

Llad Phillips1 Jobs and Crime. Llad Phillips2 A theme for this course US and CA criminal justice systems will be case studies, but are there larger issues