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LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
November 14, 2011
NOAA: Storms and Drought: Climate Change Impacts on the West
Presented by Eric Boldt
DROUGHTDROUGHT
S T O R M S T O R M SSAND
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE WEST
My story
You were thinking this?
The diverse climate and terrain in the Western U.S. results in annual rainfall of less than 5 inches in the deserts to more than 200 inches per year in the mountains.
√ True or
X False?
Poll Question
Diverse Climate & Terrain in the West
Wettest in the mountains
Driest in the deserts
PRECIP
DISTRIBUTION
IN THE WEST
Los Angeles County in Southern CA
LALA
Coast-Valleys 0-1500 ft
Mountains 6000-10000 ftDeserts 2000-3000 ft
Winter Winter StormsStormsfloods
Heavy Precipitation
Strong Winds
Small Tornadoes and waterspouts
High Surf and rip currents
Large WavesDecember 21, 2010
Western Storm Impacts
“Atmospheric Rivers” are known as…
a. A little known rock band from the Midwestb. Rivers that flood when it rainsc. Plumes of tropical moisture in the atmosphered. Jet streams
Poll Question
Amount of water vapor in the atmosphere to generate precipitation
Atmospheric Rivers associated with heavy precipitation events
Wetter
December 17-22, 2010
Atmospheric River brings 15-25 inches of rain to southern
CA in 5 days.
ARkStorm is a USGS led project to model the impacts of a catastrophic flood event in California.The term “Atmospheric River” is used to explain the moist conveyor belt associated with Pacific storms. Also known as the “pineapple express.”
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/
NASA/NOAA project to measure Atmospheric Rivers
Aircraft drone
NASA’s Global Hawk launched from Edward’s AFB in February 2011
WISPAR – Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers project measured water vapor content from approaching storms during February 2011.
Flight path of NASA’s Global Hawk for a mission in February 2011
What severe weather phenomenon results in the most annual fatalities in the U.S.?
a. Tornadoesb. Lightningc. Flash floodsd. Hurricanes
Poll Question
Heavy precipitation days have increased (measurable trend)
Increase in the amount of daily precipitation over North America that falls in heavy events
Increase in precipitation intensity is consistent with the observed increases in atmospheric water vapor
Precipitation intensityintensity is a key component of severe weather.
Flash floods, debris flows, and snowfall intensity can be very destructive and life-threatening.
Winter storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely
to become stronger and more frequent, with
greater wind speeds and more extreme wave
heights.Source – www.globalchange.gov
More powerful storms will increase threats to life…
…and property
Time For QuestionsTime For Questions
??????
DroughtDroughtheat
waves wildfires
How important is mountain snowpack for water supply in the Western U.S.?
a. Not that importantb. Somewhat importantc. Importantd. Very important
Poll Question
Nearly 75%75% of the water supply in the Western U.S. comes
from mountain snowpack
65%65% in California – source Dept. Water Resources
WOW!
Departure from normal snow depth for February 27, 2011
Lake Oroville, CA – Feb. 2008
Drought seriously depletes water resources
Winter Summer Winter
When the West would normally get precipitation it was abnormally dry.
January 2011
Drier
Drier
Annual Precipitation - % Change
Heat waves impact health mainly due to..... [place clip art on a box below]
High humidity Warm nights Existing health issue
• warm overnight temperatures• prolonged temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal• combination heat and humidity makes it feel hotter• poor air quality and smoke compounds health impacts
Heat Waves
Increase in the percentage of very warm nights over North AmericaIncrease in the percentage of very warm nights over North America
Warm night temperatures will increase
...On average excessive heat claims more lives each year than floods,
lightning, tornadoes and hurricanes combined...
Source – NWS
Temperature Change
Wildfires
Are fires becoming more frequent?
Are they more severe?
What do you think? Are wildfires more severe than in the past?
[place clip art on a box below]
Yes
No
Don’t know
Poll Question
More acres burned per fire
National Interagency Fire Center – wildland fire statistics
More total acres burned annually
Other factors are involved like disease, forest age, politics, causes, or is it climate change?
Time For QuestionsTime For Questions
??????
MonsoonMonsoonflash floods
Most areas of Northwest Mexico and the Southwest U.S. receive over half their annual precipitation from
the monsoon
Source – NWS Tucson, AZ
Winter Summer Winter
Monsoon depends on winds and heat to transport moisture from the Gulf of California
Monsoon moisture brings summer thunderstorms to much of the Rockies. Flash floods, and in some cases, wildfires, are caused by these storms.
Average monsoon start dates by decade
1950s July 1 1960s July 2 1970s July 2 1980s July 6 Latest on record (7/25/1987) 1990s July 3 2000s July 7 Earliest on record (6/17/2000)
Will climate change impact the monsoon? ...possibly
Other Severe Other Severe WeatherWeather
tornadoes hurricanes
Do tornadoes occur in California?
a. Yesb. No c. Don’t know
Poll Question
Riverside, CA 2008
Pt. Mugu, CA 2008
Sacramento, CA 2005
Long Beach, CA 2009
In southern California – this 1200 sq. mile area has the highest frequency of tornadoes west of the Continental Divide
J. Hales study 1997-1998 El Niño (32 events in 21 days)
Tornado history across the United States – since 1950
There is no clear trend in the frequency or strength of
tornadoes since the 1950s for the United States as a
whole...
...however, the frequency of favorable conditions for severe thunderstorms is
likely to increase. Source – www.globalchange.gov
Have tropical cyclones occurred in California?
a. Yesb. No c. Don’t know
Poll Question
1858 Hurricane – San Diego1939 Tropical Storm – Long Beach
3 other known tropical cyclones have impacted the SW – California, Arizona
Hurricane Linda 1997
Tropical Cyclone Storm Tracks
As ocean temperatures rise,
the strongest hurricanes are likely to increase in both the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic.
Source – www.globalchange.gov
Time For QuestionsTime For Questions
??????
ClimateClimateobservationsresources
More than 11,000 volunteers take observations on farms, in urban and suburban areas, National Parks, seashores, and mountaintops.
COOP – Cooperative Observer Program
CoCoRaHS is a grassroots volunteer network of backyard weather observers of all ages and backgrounds working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail, and snow) in their local communities.
NOAA Global Monitoring ExhibitNWS Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
RECAP Winter storms bring many types of severe weather to the
West
Drought severely impacts water resources
Heat waves and wildfires may get worse
The monsoon is critical for desert Southwest precip
Tornadoes and hurricanes do occur in California
Opportunities for climate observing and NWS resources
Thank Thank youyouEric Boldt
Warning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard
FOR LISTENIN
G!
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