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Lithium & Natural Graphite
Trends, Drivers and Geology impac;ng Markets
15 November 2016 www.csaglobal.com
Andrew Scogings
PhD Geology, MAusIMM, MAIG, RP Geo (Industrial Minerals)
Principal Consultant, CSA Global Pty Ltd
CSA Global office locaKons
www.csaglobal.com
• EXPLORATION
• RESOURCES
• MINING
• DATA
• CORPORATE
We have broad technical exper;se and experience which covers most mineral
commodi;es, geological terranes, deposit types and mining methods. Our team of
specialists are leaders in their respec;ve fields and experienced in all stages of the
mining cycle from project genera;on to produc;on and mine closure.
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Lithium producKon trends-‐
historical
www.csaglobal.com
• Global lithium mineral produc;on has risen from about 0.1 Mt
in the 1950s to an es;mated 0.6 Mt in 2013
• Includes carbonate, hydroxide, spodumene and other minerals
Global lithium producKon
www.csaglobal.com Source: USGS
• Lithium carbonate: 91,458 t
• Lithium chloride: 8,291 t
• Lithium hydroxide: 4,197 t
• Aussie spodumene: 421,000 t (~12kt Li / ~ 25kt Li2O / ~62kt Li2CO3)
• Other Li Minerals and mineral concentrates: 96,000
• TOTAL: 620,946 t
Global lithium producKon
www.csaglobal.com Source: USGS
Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e
Argen;na, subsurface brine:
Lithium carbonate 8,574 11,178 10,000 9,700 9,500
Lithium chloride 4,279 6,644 4,480 4,350 4,200
Australia, spodumene 197,482 295,000 421,391 456,921 421,000
Brazil, concentrates 15,929 15,733 7,820 7,084 8,000
Canada, spodumene 10,000 -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐
Chile, subsurface brine:
Lithium carbonate 25,154 44,025 59,933 62,002 52,358
Lithium chloride 2,397 3,725 3,864 4,145 4,091
Lithium hydroxide 2,987 5,101 5,800 5,447 4,197
China, carbonate 20,000 21,000 22,000 24,000 25,000
Portugal, lepidolite 37,359 40,109 37,534 20,698 38,000
United States, carbonate W W W W 4,600
Zimbabwe, amblygonite, eucryp;te, lepidolite, petalite, spodumene 50,000 47,000 48,000 53,000 50,000
Ceramics, glass and ba`eries account for at least two
thirds of consump;on
Global lithium markets
www.csaglobal.com Source: Roskill 2014
• Ba`ery consump;on as % of total LCE has risen from 17% in 2008 to 35% in 2014
• Ba`ery consump;on has grown from 20kt in 2008 to 64kt LCE in 2014 (CAGR 21.5%)
• Total LCE produc;on has grown 50% from 2008 to 2014 (CAGR 7.1%)
Global lithium market trends
www.csaglobal.com Source: Roskill 2014; Stormcrow 2015
• Total LCE predicted to grow from 166 kt in 2014 to 410 kt in 2025 (CAGR 7.8%)
• Rechargeable ba`eries predicted to grow at CAGR ~13%
• Glass & Ceramics predicted to grow at CAGR 6%
Global lithium market trends
www.csaglobal.com Source: Stormcrow 2015
Market 2013 market share 2025 market share CAGR
Rechargeable Ba`eries
48,169 29%
200,341 49% 12.6%
Glass & Ceramics 58,135 35% 117,512 29% 6.0%
Greases 13,288 8% 18,964 5% 3.0%
Metallurgical Powders 9,966 6% 22,195 5% 6.9%
Polymer 8,305 5% 12,561 3% 3.5%
Air Treatment 8,305 5% 12,561 3% 3.5%
Non-‐rechargeable BaYeries 3,322 2% 4,472 1% 2.5%
Aluminium 1,661 1% 114 0% -‐20.0%
Other 14,949 9% 21,334 5% 3.0%
Total LCE
166,100
410,054 7.8%
Where is lithium produced?
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Where do we find Lithium ?
www.csaglobal.com Source: Kesler, et al. 2014, modified by Scogings
Three main deposit types
Con;nental Brines. Pegma;tes. *Li rich clay & Sediments
Brine PegmaKte
Volcanic
ash*
Sediments*
* Not in produc;on
Mt Marion
Pilgangoora
Whabouchi
Highbury
Arcadia
San Jose
Seymore
Root Lake
Bougouni
• Global lithium produc;on es;mated at 36kt Li in 2014
• 13kt each from Australia and Chile (72% combined)
Global lithium producKon
www.csaglobal.com Source: USGS; Albemarle
Li (kt): annual producKon by country
What do lithium minerals look like?
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Repor;ng of lithium pegma;tes
To download the ar;cle visit
h`p://aigjournal.aig.org.au/wp-‐content/uploads/2016/11/N2016-‐001-‐Scoggings-‐et-‐al.-‐Repor;ng-‐Explora;on-‐Results-‐
and-‐Mineral-‐Resources-‐for-‐lithium-‐mineralised-‐pegma;tes_v2.pdf
Lithium occurs in numerous minerals
What minerals contain Lithium?
Source: AusIMM Field Geologists’ Manual, Industrial Minerals Handybook , www.webmineral.com
Principal Li-‐minerals in pegma;tes Formula Density g/cm3 Li2O%
Spodumene LiAl(Si2O6) 3.2 8.0
Petalite Li(AlSi4O10) 2.4 4.5
Eucryp;te LiAl(SiO4) 2.7 11.8
Amblygonite LiAl(PO4)(OH) 3.0 10.2
Lepidolite K(Li,Al)3(SiAl)4O10(OH,F)2 2.8 7.6
Lithiophilite Li(Mn2)PO4 3.5 7.1
Zinnwaldite K(Al,Fe,Li)3(Si,Al)4O10(OH)F 3 6.2
Minerals in altered ash and sediments
Hectorite (Li smec;te)* Na0.3(Mg,Li)3SiO4O10(OH)2 ~1.8 ~1.0
Jadarite* LiNaB3SiO7(OH) 2.45 ~6.0
*from resource reports and Handybook
Lithium pegmaKtes
www.csaglobal.com Source: Pioneer Resources Ltd
Spodumene – a range of colours & composiKons
Lithium pegmaKtes
www.csaglobal.com Source: Prospect Resources Ltd
Petalite – pink due to minor alteraKon
Lithium minerals under the microscope
www.csaglobal.com Photo: A Scogings
Not all created equal – discrete spodumene
Lithium minerals under the microscope
www.csaglobal.com Photo: A Scogings
Not all created equal – fine-‐grained SQI
Lithium minerals under the microscope
www.csaglobal.com Photo: A Scogings
Not all created equal – Petalite & SQI
• Numerous lithium-‐bearing minerals, e.g. spodumene, petalite and lepidolite
• Range of composi;ons, varying between and within deposits
• Some markets, e.g. glass may require very low iron content
• Petalite concentrates contain ~4% Li2O
• Spodumene concentrate contain ~5% to 6.5% Li2O
• Petalite concentrate will yield less lithium carbonate / lithium chemicals
than spodumene – logis;cs disadvantage for the ba`ery market
• Petalite is olen altered to spodumene + quartz (SQI) during pegma;te
deposi;on. This may require fine grinding to liberate spodumene.
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Mineralogy and markets
Graphite producKon trends -‐
historical
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This 500-‐page report reviews every major graphite producing and exploring
company around the world, as well as detailing global explora;on ac;vity. It also
contains an in-‐depth focus on graphene, including its producKon, supply and
demand.
Key topics include:
• Unique country supply reviews including: China, Brazil, India, North Korea, and
Canada
• Major demand drivers – Li-‐ion baYeries, refractories, & emerging markets
• How will prices react? Historical analysis, supply and demand
• CriKque of the graphene revoluKon
The data for the report was collected from mul;ple loca;ons using primary
research including methods such as thin-‐sec;on petrography, mine and plant
visits.
Natural Graphite Report: Strategic Outlook to 2020
To download a sample of the report visit www.indmin.com/graphite-‐report
• Global graphite produc;on has risen from about 100,000
tpa in the early 1900s to an es;mated 1.2 Mt in 2014
• Compound annual growth from about 1950 >3%.
Global graphite producKon
www.csaglobal.com Source: USGS
Markets -‐
where is graphite used?
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Graphite producKon & markets
www.csaglobal.com Source: USGS, industry sources, Scogings et al (2015)
Each market has individual product specifica;ons
Graphite producKon & markets
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China
74%
Brazil
9%
North Korea
6%
India
2%
Canada
2% Turkey
1%
Russia
1% Sri Lanka
0%
Others
5%
Es;mated global natural graphite produc;on 2014 ~1.2 Mt
• Amorphous 0.3 Mt
• Flake 0.8 Mt
• Vein 0.004 Mt
Source: USGS, industry sources, Scogings et al (2015)
Markets – what is driving growth?
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Global graphite market trends
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Approximately 430 kt flake graphite by 2025 (at 40% yield) to make approximately 180,000 tonnes spehrical
Ba`ery – es;mated consump;on of spherical natural graphite for Li-‐ion ba`eries
Source: ProGraphite; Kibaran Resources Ltd
What does natural graphite look
like?
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Amorphous graphite
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Metamorphosed coal
Source: ProGraphite
Flake graphite
Germany
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Source: AMG Graphit Kropfm
ühl GmbH
Photos: A. Scogings
Flake graphite under the microscope
Triton (Ancuabe, Mozambique) Huanyu (China, Heilongjiang)
www.csaglobal.com Photos: A. Scogings
Source: Triton Minerals; Huanyu.
Flake graphite under the microscope
Graphex Mining Ltd, Tanzania
‘Low Grade Zone’ >2% cut-‐off ‘High Grade Zone’ >5% cut-‐off
www.csaglobal.com Photos: A. Scogings
Source: Graphex Mining Ltd
Vein graphite
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Sri Lanka
Photo: A. Scogings
Source: M
argosa Graphite
Source: Kahatagaha Lanka
Vein graphite
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Sri Lanka
Photo: A. Scogings
Source: Kahatagaha Lanka
• Low price
• Fuel: during desulfuriza;on of steel, the iron cools and may need re-‐hea;ng.
Amorphous graphite brique`es are placed on the surface of iron to warm up
the iron
• Amorphous graphite less reflec;ve and darker colour than other natural
graphite (silver-‐grey). Useful in coa;ngs when lower reflectance is desirable,
or in pencils to get darker colour.
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Why use amorphous graphite?
• High purity flake graphite (>97% Carbon) can be produced by flota;on,
without chemical purifica;on (e.g. acids)
• Flakes are flexible and can be spheronised (rolled) into very small ‘potato’
shapes for use in ba`ery anodes
• Flakes can have other molecules inserted between the layers of carbon
atoms. When heated, the graphite layers are forced apart at between 200 and
300oC.
Source: spherical graphite photo: Kibaran Resources Ltd
Spherical graphite Expandable graphite Spherical graphite plant
Why use flake graphite?
• Shape advantage (not flakes) easier to mix into formula;ons
• Natural high purity, no chemical residues from flota;on or chemical
processing
• More isotropic electrical and thermal behaviour than anisotropic flake
graphite
• Soler and smoother (noise reduc;on)
• Small amounts of fine quartz (abrasive) cleans electric motor commutators.
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Why use vein graphite?
Conclusions
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Conclusions-‐ lithium
www.csaglobal.com
• Markets and drivers
Ø Two dominant markets -‐ ba`eries and glass / ceramics (>65%)
Ø Ba`ery and glass markets growing
Ø ~160 kt LCE (2014) growing to >400 kt LCE (2025)?
• Not all lithium deposits are created equal
Ø Dominated by two sources -‐ Brines and Pegma;tes
Ø Each pegma;te is individual -‐ can be complex mineralogy
Ø Li-‐minerals vary in size and purity
Ø Markets may demand different Li-‐minerals, purity and / or sizing
Conclusions – natural graphite
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• Markets and drivers
Ø One dominant market -‐ refractories & steel, (>60%)
Ø Refractories and steel declining
Ø Ba`ery and expandable graphite market growth
• Not all graphite deposits are created equal
Ø Grade / shape / flake size / purity vary between deposits
Ø Markets may demand different graphite shape, purity and / or sizing
Thank you
• CSA Global Pty Ltd
• Graphex Mining Ltd
• Industrial Minerals Magazine
• Kibaran Resources Ltd
• Pioneer Resources Ltd
• ProGraphite
• Prospect Resources Ltd
• Triton Minerals Ltd
15 August 2016 www.csaglobal.com
