Likely Today… Once in a Lifetime Opportunities Ahead · Once in a Lifetime Opportunities Ahead. “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.” Leonardo da Vinci . Radical Innovator

www.HSDent.com

The Great Global Crash Begins: Second and Final Stock Top

Likely Today… Once in a Lifetime Opportunities Ahead

www.HSDent.com

“Simplicity is the ultimate

sophistication.”

Leonardo da Vinci

www.HSDent.com

Radical Innovator Steve Jobs on Why He Doesn’t Do Market Research

"Did Alexander Graham Bell do any market

research before inventing the phone?"

"Henry Ford said: 'If I'd asked people what they

wanted, they would have said a faster horse!'"

"Customers don't know what they want until we

show them.

"I strive to give people what they would want if

they only knew it was possible."

www.HSDent.com

"You can see the key economic trends that will

impact your life, your business, your

investments and your family over the rest of

your lifetime... and your kids!

"This is especially critical in an unprecedented

economic explosion wherein more progress

has been made in the last 120 years than in all

of human history."

– Harry Dent

My Offering:

www.HSDent.com

2,000

7,000

12,000

17,000

22,000

27,000

2.4

3.4

4.4

5.4

6.4

7.4

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Mill

ions

Immigration-adjusted Births Lagged for Peak Spending, left Dow Adjusted for Inflation, right

My First Breakthrough in 1988: The Spending Wave Births Lagged for Peak Spending vs. The Real Dow

Source: Dent Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Bloomberg

www.HSDent.com

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Baby Boom Generation Peak Spending at Age 46Consumer Spending by Age

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dent Research

Age

Ave

rage

An

nu

al E

xp

en

ditu

res

4639 54201520072000

www.HSDent.com

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Australia Spending Wave Best in Developed World, Along with Israel45-to-49-Year-Olds

Mill

ions

Source: United Nations Population Division

2025

2045

2035

2065

2080

Next Global

Depression

www.HSDent.com

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Not Just Macro But Cradle to Grave: Consumer Life Cycle of Spending S

pe

ndin

g

Age

Starter Homes

2784

Prescription Drugs

& Vitamins

34

Trade-Up

Homes 42

60

47

Furniture &

Restaurants

51College Tuition

58

Appliances & Home Renovation

68

Vacation & Retirement Homes

80

74Cruise Ships

ApartmentsNursing

Homes

29

Infant’s Furniture

Child Care

3536

Toys

38Kid’s

Clothes

44

Peak

Spending

Hospitals & Doctors*

Source: Dent Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, *Out-of-Pocket, Not Including Government Insurance

63Net Worth & Autos64

57

Flowers &

Indoor Plants

Life Insurance & Financial Planning

www.HSDent.com

1. Nursing Homes / Assisted Living Facilities

2. Funerals and Cremation Services

3. Pharmaceuticals

4. Vitamins and Skin Care

5. Cruise Ships

6. Long-Term Care Insurance

7. Lawn and Garden Services

8. Cosmetic Dentistry and Implants

9. Home Security Systems

10. Housekeeping Services

10 Top “Aging” Demographic Growth Sectors For DCs in Next Boom

www.HSDent.com

1

2

3

4

5

6

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bill

ions,

Ag

es 1

5-6

4

Mill

ions,

Ag

es 4

5-4

9

Global Spending Wave: EMs Dominate Future Growth, not DCsDeveloped vs. Emerging Countries (Based on $25K GPD per Capita PPP Threshold)

Source: United Nations Population Division, Total Economy Database

Developed

Emerging

www.HSDent.com

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

China Spending Wave Already Peaked in 2011: Down ForeverWorkforce, Ages 15-64


Mill

ions

2011

www.HSDent.com

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

India Spending Wave Grows Strongly into 2050-55; SE Asia SimilarWorkforce, Ages 15-64


Mill

ions

2050-55

www.HSDent.com

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

China

Indonesia

India Appears to Have Stronger GDP per Capita Gains Than ChinaGDP per Capita (PPP) vs. Urbanization

% Urban

Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, The Conference Board

$13,040

55%

$18,369

59%

$20,000

$30,000

India

$7,435

34%

$25,000

GD

P P

er

Ca

pita

, P

PP

Me

asu

re

www.HSDent.com

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

U.S. Immigration-Adjusted Births Moved Forward for Peak Spending, left U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates, right

My Most Important Concept: 80-Year Four Season Economic CycleU.S. Immigration-Adjusted Births Moved Forward for Peak Spending

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Center for Health Statistics, Dent Research

Mill

ions

Pe

rce

nt Y

ield

Spring Boom

Summer

Inflation/

Recession

Winter Deflation/

Depression

Fall

Bubble

Boom

www.HSDent.com

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Hierarchy of Macroeconomic Cycles: Progression of Major TopsDeveloped Countries

10-Year

Boom/Bust

Cycle

35-Year

Geopolitical

Cycle

39-Year

Generation

Cycle45-Year

Innovation

Cycle

= All Four

Cycles Point Down

1930-33 1973-76 2020-22

Source: Dent Research

www.HSDent.com

2,000

7,000

12,000

17,000

22,000

27,000

2.4

3.4

4.4

5.4

6.4

7.4

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Mill

ions

Immigration-adjusted Births Lagged for Peak Spending, left Dow Adjusted for Inflation, right

QE Creates “Markets on Crack:” 120% Overvalued At 2/19/20 PeakBirths Lagged for Peak Spending vs. The Real Dow

Source: Dent Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Bloomberg

2007

2023

2036/37

2055/56

www.HSDent.com

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Corporate Profits (Indexed to Q4 '08) EPS, GAAP (Indexed Q1 '09)

S&P 500 EPS Grows 119% More Than Profits Since 2009 QE

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg

175%

384%

Ind

ex o

f 1

00

Fro

m R

esp

ective

Bo

tto

ms

www.HSDent.com

$167 $164 $164 $157

$234

$376

$488

$627

$359

$206

$303

$446

$400

$500

$566$581

$555

$506

$800 $800

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

QE/Free Money Fuels Stock Buybacks by S&P 500 Companies: Then Tax Cuts!Billions, annual

Source: Bloomberg, Howard Silverblatt, Investors.com

$1.8 Trillion

From 2003 to 2007

$5.6 Trillion

From 2009 to 2019

www.HSDent.com

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Non-financial Corporations Rest of the World Households Institutions

Corporations: Only Net Buyers of Stocks Since 2009… What the #@*?Cumulative Net Buying of U.S. Equities, % Market Cap

Source: Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse

www.HSDent.com

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Unprecedented QE Mostly Created Final Massive Stock Bubble

Source: Federal Reserve

Inde

x 1

00

= R

espe

ctive

20

08

-09 B

ott

om

s

Monetary Base

M2 Money Supply

GDP

S&P 500

www.HSDent.com

2.75

3.25

3.75

4.25

4.75

5.25

5.75

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Massive US Bubble in Private Financial Assets: 50% Reset to Reality U.S. Financial Assets Excluding Financial Sector as Ratio to GDP


Ra

tio

5.9$123 Tr

-50%

-$61.5 Tr

www.HSDent.com

$280.6

$168.4

$105.3

$73.7

$83.3

$25.0

$8.1

$4.9

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2017 2022

In T

rilli

ons U

SD

Global Real Estate Debt Securities Equities Gold/Crypto

$477.3T

$272.0T

-30%

-40%

-40%

-70%

$205T+ Disappears

$206T of $477T Global Financial Assets Disappears! 2.4 X Global GDP

Source: Savills World Research

www.HSDent.com

Debt/Asset Bubbles Like Magic: Now You See Them, Now You Don’t!

www.HSDent.com

20%

19%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Years

1929-1940 2007-2018

Winter Season from 2008: Worse Real GDP Than Great DepressionCumulative Real GDP Growth From Peak, 11-Year Periods

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

6%?

www.HSDent.com

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

1875:

Steamship

Reaper

Super Bubbles Every 90 Years: Or Two 45-Year Innovation CyclesKey Technologies Emerge on S-Curves Every 45 Years

1830:

Steam Engine

Canals

2055:

Biotech

Nanotech

Source: Dent Research

= Great Bubble Crashes/Resets Every 90 Years

1920:

Rail Road

Telegraph

1965:

Automobile

Electricity

2010:

Internet

Portable Computing

1837-42

1929-32

2019-22e

www.HSDent.com

1700 1730 1760 1790 1820 1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030

90-Year Great Resets Since Industrial Revolution & Stock ExchangesStock Prices Since 1700

Source: Conquer the Crash by Robert Prechter, pg. 33, Dent Research

1

1,000

10

100

10,000

100,000

British

Stock

Prices

U.S.

Stock Prices

Grand Supercyle Bear Market and Bull MarketAnnual average Prices, semi log scale

(B)

(A) (C)

(I)

(II)

(III)

(IV)

(V)

V

4

2

3 1

2

4

5

3

Great Resets

1

5

IV

III

www.HSDent.com

• 90-Year Super Bubble/Great Reset Bottom, aka

1932, 1842

• 80-Year End of Winter Season, aka 1942

• 40-Year Generation/Spending Wave Bottom, aka

1982, 1942

• 20-Year Half-Generation Cycle aka 1922, 1942, 1962,

1982, 2002

• 10-Year Boom/Bust Cycle; First 3 Years Each

Decade, aka 2000–02, 1990-02, 1980-82, 1970-72,

1960-62… 2008-09 Only Exception (2010-12 Europe)

Rare Convergence of Long-Term Cycles Bottoming in Late 2022

www.HSDent.com

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

2,800,000

1953 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 2023 2030 2037 2044 2051 2058

Japan Taiwan South Korea

Rise of East Asia: Spending Wave Peaks in Japan, S. Korea & Taiwan47-Year Birth Lag

Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan, National Statistics, Republic of China (Taiwan), Statistics Korea

Ja

pa

n

Ta

iwa

n a

nd

So

uth

Ko

rea

www.HSDent.com

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

China Spending Wave Already Peaked in 2011: Down ForeverWorkforce, Ages 15-64


Mill

ions

2011

www.HSDent.com

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018

China

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Successive Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China Accelerations Since 1965GDP Per Capita by Year


$29.4k

$8.3k

$8.4k

$41.8k

$53.8k

$11.9k

$19.8k

$3.9k

GD

P P

er

Ca

pita

, P

PP

Me

asu

re

$45.2k

www.HSDent.com

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

China GDP per Capita (PPP) vs. Urbanization

% Urban

$19,800 at

59% in 2018

$25,000 at

85% by 2043

GD

P P

er

Ca

pita

, P

PP

Me

asu

re


From 1950 From 1980

Urbanization Growth/yr 0.70% 1.05%

$ Gain per 1% Gain in Urban $ 414 $ 478

Implied GDP/Capita at 85% $ 30,483 $ 32,129

www.HSDent.com

Country

Date Range

of

Acceleration

(# of years)

Total

GDP per

Capita Gain

GDP per

Capita Gain

per Year

Change in

Urbanization

% Points

GDP per

Capita vs.

Every 1%

Urbanization

Gain

Japan1965-1990

25 years$21.1K $0.8K 9% pts $2.3K

South

Korea

1985-2018

33 years$33.4K $1.0K 16% pts $2.1K

Taiwan1985-2018

33 years$41.9K $1.3K 21% pts $2.0K

Australia1985-2015

30 Years$21.0K $0.7K 1% pts N/A

China2000-2018

18 years

$15.9K

$26.5 adj $0.9K

23% pts

38% adj$0.7K

The Accelerations in E. Asia Are Off-the-Charts in GDP/Cap PPP Gains


www.HSDent.com

4/01/1983 4/01/1988 4/01/1993 4/01/1998 4/01/2003 4/01/2008

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

Real Estate Index, right

Nikkei, left

-66%

-82%

Japan’s Boomer Bubble Bursts: Stocks Late 1989, Real Estate 1991

Source: Yahoo! Finance, : Land Institute of Japan, 6-City Real Estate Index

Index 1

00=

2000

www.HSDent.com

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

19

65

19

66

19

67

19

68

19

69

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

% o

f G

DP

Households & NPISHs Non-Financial Corporations Government

No Deleveraging in Japan: Massive Public Debt & QE to Offset Decline

418%

255%

104%

59%71%

147%

86%

304%

130%

98%

24%

8%

Source: https://www.bis.org/statistics/totcredit.htm

218%

163%

https://www.bis.org/statistics/totcredit.htm

www.HSDent.com

0

100

200

300

400

500

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037

Shanghai: Mother of Real Estate Bubbles with 78% Downside… What!!In

de

x=

200

3

Source: China Real Estate Index Systems, Bloomberg, Dent Research

9.1 Times Gain

Bubble Intensity = 0.50

9.1 Times Gain / 18.25 Duration

18.25 Years 18.25 Years

Bubble

Origin

-78%

Forecast

www.HSDent.com

• 78% Net Worth in Real Estate vs. 30% U.S., 67% Australia

• 89% Owned vs. 62% U.S.

• 50 Million Homes or 22% Urban, Vacant… WHAT???

• 49% of Sales Second Home, 24% Third or More Home… High Speculation

• Consumer Mortgage Debt Up 8.4 Times Since 2008

• Who to Buy When People Panic and Sell Vacant Extra Homes?

China’s Real Estate Disaster Ahead

www.HSDent.com

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

A

D

E

B

C

Shanghai Composite Keeps Spiking Less Intensely: Weakening Sign

1,000

334

www.HSDent.com

7%24%

65%45%23%

42%

55%

51%83%

72%

125%160%

8%

20%

38%

45%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

2000 2007 2014 2018

Household

Corporate

Government

Financial

China’s Debt Has Grown 19.1 Times Since 2000.. What???…And 5.4 Times Since 2007

$2.1T or

121% of

GDP

Source: “Debt and (Not Much) Deleveraging,” McKinsey Global Institute, February 2015, Financial Times, Dent Research

Trilli

ons

$7.4T or

158% of

GDP

$28.2T or

282% of

GDP

$40.3T or

301% of

GDP

www.HSDent.com

Debt/Asset Bubbles Like Magic: Now You See Them, Now You Don’t!

www.HSDent.com

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Minor

Bubble #1:

111%

Major

Bubble #1:

223%

Minor

Bubble #2:

97%

This Is Not a Bubble? Greatest Crash Since 1929 – 1932 AheadDow Jones Industrial Average

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Major

Bubble #2

6,500

5,000 -83%

357%

-40%

-39%-54%

www.HSDent.com

400

800

1,600

3,200

6,400

12,800

25,600

1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

5,000

Megaphone Topping Patterns in Dow: 1965–1972 and 2000–20

Source: Bloomberg

Log

Sca

le

A

A

B

BD

C E

D

C

Ea

bd

ec

www.HSDent.com

1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932

Dow Masters & Johnson

Orgasm Cycle

Bubbles & Crashes Fits Perfectly with Male Orgasm Model: Dow 1929

Source: Bloomberg, Masters and Johnson

Orgasm

Excitement

&Plateau

(Arousal)

Desire

(Appetitive)

www.HSDent.com

$2.7

$3.2

$3.7

$4.2

$4.7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tri

llions

Fed Balance Peaks Late 2014 at $4.52T, Tapers Down $754B to $3.76T

$4.516T

$3.762

$4.463

(+$702B From

Bottom)


www.HSDent.com

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Trilli

ons

Excess Reserves Required Reserves

Bank Reserves at Fed Peak at $2.72T and Fall to $1.26T: Stress Point


$1.58T

$225B

$1.26T

9/18

$2.72T

9/10/2014

www.HSDent.com

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

9/8/19 9/18/19 9/28/19 10/8/1910/18/1910/28/1911/7/1911/17/1911/27/1912/7/1912/17/1912/27/19 1/6/20 1/16/20 1/26/20 2/5/20 2/15/20 2/25/20 3/6/20 3/16/20

Bill

ions

Treasury Bills Purchased by the Fed Total Repurchase Agreements by the Fed

Fed Repo Injections Explode to $763B and Exploding: No Big Deal?


$442B

(+$200B)

$321B

(+0.0B)

$763B

Total

(+$200B)

www.HSDent.com

$3.76

$3.86

$3.96

$4.06

$4.16

$4.26

7,650

8,150

8,650

9,150

9,650

10/1/19 10/15/19 10/29/19 11/12/19 11/26/19 12/10/19 12/24/19 1/7/20 1/21/20 2/4/20 2/18/20 3/3/20 3/17/20

Tri

llions

Final Orgasm Stage: Stocks Surge with Repo QE Then Crash w/ VirusNasdaq vs. Fed Balance Sheet

Fed Balance

Sheet (Trillions)

Moved Forward

2.5 Weeks

Nasdaq

Source: Yahoo! Finance, Federal Reserve, Dent Research

www.HSDent.com

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$5.5

$6.0

$6.5

$7.0

$7.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tri

llions

Fed Prints as Much in 8 Months as It Did in 80 Months: Exponential!

$4.52T

$3.76T

$7.16T


$0.88T

+$3.4T

+$3.6T

8 months

80 months

www.HSDent.com

Zombie Companies Explode Especially from 2008 Recession Forward

Source: Axios Markets newsletter written by Dion Rabouin

www.HSDent.com

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

S&P 500 Clearly Broke Bottom Trendline from 2009: Bubble Over!


2,192

3,394

www.HSDent.com

1,200

2,400

4,800

9,600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Nasdaq Finally Breaks Above Top Trendline with Major Throw Over Log Scale


8,133

9,838

12,074

www.HSDent.com

Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03

700

1200

1700

2200

2700

3200

3700

4200

4700

5200

30

80

130

180

230

280

330

380

430

Jul-29 Nov-29 Mar-30 Jul-30 Nov-30 Mar-31 Jul-31 Nov-31 Mar-32 Jul-32 Nov-32

Dow, left

Nasdaq, right

1929 Dow vs 2000 Nasdaq Bubble Bursts: There’s a Pattern


-78%

-89%

www.HSDent.com

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

31000

170

220

270

320

370

Jul-29 Aug-29 Sep-29 Oct-29 Nov-29 Dec-29 Jan-30 Feb-30 Mar-30 Apr-30 May-30 Jun-30 Jul-30

9/3/192929,569

4/16/1930

5 Month Bounce

27,572

11/23/1929

Down 49%

29,199

Classic Scenario Like 1929: First Sharp Crash and 5.5-Month Bounce


www.HSDent.com

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20

2941

2347

3394

2192

3588

S&P 500 Hits Megaphone Top at 3,588: Next Target 2,100, -41%

-20%

-35% 2100-41%

www.HSDent.com

6500

7500

8500

9500

10500

11500

12500

3/19/20 4/2/20 4/16/20 4/30/20 5/14/20 5/28/20 6/11/20 6/25/20 7/9/20 7/23/20 8/6/20 8/20/20 9/3/20 9/17/20

Nasdaq 100 Final Channel Final Blow-Off With Sept 2 Top at 12,439?


12,439 12,400+

11,18011,265

www.HSDent.com

The Really Dumb Money Driving This Rally: Small Traders on Options

1.4

4.2

9.7

7.6

3.3

4.2

+5.5m

+4.3m

+2.8m

Source: Tao of Trading

www.HSDent.com

250

750

1,250

1,750

2,250

2,750

3,250

3,750

11,500

13,500

15,500

17,500

19,500

21,500

23,500

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Smart Money Flow Index, left S&P 500, right

Smart Money Selling into this Top Just as into 2000 Tech Bubble TopBloomberg Smart Money Flow Index vs. S&P 500

Source: Bloomberg

www.HSDent.com

Nasdaq Volatility Index Rose Into This Top, Like The One in February


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

6500

7500

8500

9500

10500

11500

12500

13500

Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20

NDX, left

VXN, right

www.HSDent.com

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

6,500

7,500

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22

4,403

7,197

3,120

1,500

6,199

ASX 200 Bubble and Burst Scenario: Best Case 3,120, Worst 1,500


www.HSDent.com

40%

122%

76%

65%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Australia

Government

Consumer

Corporate

Financial

Australia Debt Lower Than Most DCs, Except ConsumerP

erc

en

t o

f S

ele

cte

d D

ebt to

Na

tion

al G

DP

303% Total Combined

Debt to GDP!

Source: “Debt and (Not Much) Deleveraging,” McKinsey Global Institute, February 2015, ABS, Dent Research

www.HSDent.com

20.9

16.0

15.0

12.6

11.7

9.7

9.2

9.0

8.8

8.6

8.3

8.3

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.5

4.6

4.3

4.1

3.9

3.6

3.5

0 5 10 15 20

Hong Kong

Beijing

Shanghai

Vancouver

Sydney

Melbourne

Los Angeles

Auckland

San Francisco

Honolulu

London

Toronto

Miami

Seattle

New York City

Denver

Singapore

Phoenix

Tampa

Dallas

Chicago

Atlanta

Median Multiple (Home Price-to-Income)

Very High

Extreme

Moderately High

Closer to Normal

The Most Dangerous Real Estate Bubbles Globally NowChina, Australia, California, Canada & U.K. Dominate

Source: “15th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2019,” Demographia

www.HSDent.com

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048

Mill

ion

s

Real Home Price Index, left 42-year olds minus 84-year olds, right

Japan Net Housing Demand Never Bounced, Further Down Into 2033Peak Buyers (42) minus Dyers (84)

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan, Dallas Fed

10

0=

200

5

www.HSDent.com

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1987 1993 1998 2004 2009 2015 2020 2026 2031 2037

Mill

ions

Real Home Prices, left U.S. Net Housing Demand (42 minus 78), right

Real Estate Will Never Be the Same: Dyers Slow into 2039 in U.S. U.S. Net Housing Demand, Peak Buyers (42) minus Dyers (78)

100

=2

005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Dallas Federal Reserve, Dent Research

20%41%

www.HSDent.com

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

1968 1982 1995 2009 2023 2036 2050

Real House Price Index, left Australia (40-44) minus (80-84), right

Australia: 42% Overvalued: Down into 2022, Bounce Then Down AgainPeak Buyers (40-44) minus Dyers (80-84)

Source: United Nations Population Division, Dallas Federal Reserve

10

0=

200

5

Th

ou

sand

s

-50%

-42%

www.HSDent.com

25

75

125

175

225

275

325

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Australia Eight City Index Suggests Range of 32%-49% Decline

Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics, Dent Research

+209% Rise

-71%

-49%

+341% Rise

Most Likely

Worst Case

Inde

x=

100

in

20

00 Best Case

-41%

-32%

www.HSDent.com

25

75

125

175

225

275

325

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Sydney Bubble Best Support in 2006 at 52% Down to 2006 Levels


+117% Rise

-70%

-52%

+342% Rise

Most Likely

Worst Case

Inde

x=

100

in

20

00

Best Case-43%

www.HSDent.com

Sydney Has Highest Capital Value/Rents: Gone Mad Since 2012

Source: : Reproduced from a report written by Savills World Research, a division of Savills (UK) Limited, with permission from Global Real Estate: Trends in the world’s largest asset

class, published in July 2017 by HSBC Holdings plc. HSBC is a trademark of HSBC Holdings plc and all rights in and to HSBC vest in HSBC Holdings plc.

www.HSDent.com

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Melbourne Bubble Best Support at 59% Down to 2006 Levels


+154% Rise

-76%

-59%

+527% Rise

Most Likely

Worst Case

-36%Best Case

Inde

x=

100

in

20

00

www.HSDent.com

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Brisbane Bubble Best Support at 39% Down to 2006 Levels


+73% Rise

-73%

-39%

+266% Rise

Most Likely

Worst Case

Best Case -20%

Inde

x=

100

in

20

00

www.HSDent.com

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Adelaide Bubble Best Support at 37% Down, Best Case Down 18%


+30%

-68%

-37%

+217% Rise

Most Likely

Worst Case

Best Case-18%

Inde

x=

100

in

20

00

www.HSDent.com

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Perth Bubble Most Hard to Predict: 20% to 35% Range, ‘06-‘09 Levels


+24%

-72%

-35%

+220% Rise

Most Likely

Worst Case

Best Case-20%

Inde

x=

100

in

20

00

www.HSDent.com

-77%-75%

-57%-55%

-46% -45%-42%

-34%-30% -29%

-15% -14%

-3%

-90.00%

-80.00%

-70.00%

-60.00%

-50.00%

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

Investment Max Downside 2006-2020: Gold Near as Volatile as Stocks

www.HSDent.com

$45

$55

$65

$75

$85

$95

$105

$115

$125

19

/02

/202

0

21

/02

/202

0

23

/02

/202

0

25

/02

/202

0

27

/02

/202

0

29

/02

/202

0

2/0

3/2

020

4/0

3/2

020

6/0

3/2

020

8/0

3/2

020

10

/03

/202

0

12

/03

/202

0

14

/03

/202

0

16

/03

/202

0

18

/03

/202

0

20

/03

/202

0

22

/03

/202

0

24

/03

/202

0

26

/03

/202

0

28

/03

/202

0

30

/03

/202

0

1/0

4/2

020

3/0

4/2

020

5/0

4/2

020

7/0

4/2

020

9/0

4/2

020

11

/04

/202

0

13

/04

/202

0

15

/04

/202

0

17

/04

/202

0

19

/04

/202

0

21

/04

/202

0

23

/04

/202

0

25

/04

/202

0

27

/04

/202

0

29

/04

/202

0

1/0

5/2

020

3/0

5/2

020

5/0

5/2

020

7/0

5/2

020

9/0

5/2

020

11

/05

/202

0

13

/05

/202

0

SPY TLT GLD BTC-USD LQD

Safe Havens in Crash: T Bonds Best, Then Gold, Corp Bonds & Bitcoin ETFs Indexed to 100 on February 19, 2020: Stock Crash Shaded in Grey through March 23, 2020


-16.8%

6.5%

13.7%

-3.6%-3.1%

-33.4%-34.1%

-12.5%

-3.6%

14.1%17.7%

7.6%

-48.4%

Gold

S&P 500

Bitcoin

T Bonds

Corp Bonds

www.HSDent.com

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

150

650

1150

1650

2150Gold, right S&P 500, left

Gold

S&P 500

Aggressive QE

Aggressive QE

Gold Mostly Risk-On and Bubbled Like Stocks, Except Stronger In QE


www.HSDent.com

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

Gold Near Channel Bottom at 1,910 Ahead, Hits 2,220 Target Late Sept

2220

1910

www.HSDent.com

Gold Has Resistance Ahead at 2,200: Late 2022 Low Target Is $1,000

2,200

www.HSDent.com

$200

$450

$700

$950

$1,200

$1,450

$1,700

$1,950

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Gold Peaks Near $2,200 Target With Lows Near $1,000 in Late 2022?

In our newsletter we gave a major sell signal for

gold and silver on April 25, 2011 five months

ahead of the top in gold and at the top in silver.

Critical

Break

at $1,525

Source: Bloomberg

$400

$700 Worst Case

Bubble

Origin

1

2

3

4

5

$970 Most Likely

$2,220

www.HSDent.com

Country

(Order of

Population)

GDP per

Capita

2000

GDP per

Capita

2018

Gains

2000-18

Change

in Urban

2000-18

$’s per

1%

Urban

$’s per

Year

Projection

at 85%

Urban

China $3,910 $19,800 $15,889 23%pts $691 $883 $24-27,000

India 2,848 8,148 5,300 6% 883 294 23-30,000

Indonesia 6,359 13,855 7,495 13% 577 416 19-23,000

Bangladesh 1,869 4,774 2,905 15% 194 161 7-10,000

Philippines 4,525 8,775 4,250 1% N/A 236 21-24,000

Vietnam 2,830 7,658 4,828 13% 371 268 20-23,000

Thailand 10,392 19,901 9,510 20% 475 528 35-38,000

Myanmar 1,709 6,628 4,919 4% 1,230 273 22-30,000

Malaysia 18,594 32,811 14,218 15% 948 790 34-35,000

Cambodia 1,503 4,474 2,971 6% 495 165 18-21,000

Asia’s Growth After China and East Asia: Southeast Asia and India


www.HSDent.com

• Sell Stocks into Final Rebound Likely Between Early September,

and Late October.

• Sell Non-Strategic Real Estate NOW Before Real Depression

Starts by Early 2021… What Worth in 2005? Most Likely Target

• Best Safe Havens: US and Australian Treasury Bonds, AAA

Corporate; Cash Flow Positive Residential and Medical

Rentals/REITs; and US Dollar as Currency.

• Dent Sector Fund Looks Forward to Thriving in the Volatile and

Counter-Trends Ahead; Get on List: www.dentsectorfund.com

• Sean Allison Has the Ultimate Thrive in Volatile Up and Down

Markets: Simple, Targeted, Risk-Protected Options

Summary Points

www.HSDent.com

U.S. Lowest on Money Printing: China Worse as Prints Condos!

125.4

40.536.034.6

www.HSDent.com

Safe Haven US Dollar Mostly Between 80 and 120: 120 Target in Crisis

Documents

Likely Today… Once in a Lifetime Opportunities Ahead · Once in a Lifetime Opportunities Ahead. “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.” Leonardo da Vinci . Radical Innovator