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Liberia’s Infrastructure: A Continental Perspective. Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic: a multi-stakeholder effort. Methodology and approach. Methodology - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Liberia’s Infrastructure: A Continental Perspective
Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic: a multi-stakeholder effort
Banque Africaine de Developpement
African Union Agence Française de Développement
Development Bank of Southern Africa
Department for International Development
European Union The Infrastructure Consortium for Africa
Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau The New Partnership for Africa’s Development
Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility
Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Project The World Bank Water and Sanitation Program
Methodology and approach
Methodology Data collection by local/international consultants and Bank staff
from national sources based on standardized methodology Baseline year for data is 2007-2008
Approach Focus on benchmarking Liberia’s infrastructure against African
neighbors Benchmarking group includes Resource-rich countries, Low
Income Non Fragile (LIC-Non Fragile), West African neighbors, and regional outliers
Why infrastructure matters?
Across West Africa ICT has been a significant boost to growth, while power has been a drag
Changes in growth per capita due to changes in infrastructure (2001-5 vs. 1991-5)
Addressing infrastructure deficiencies could boost West African growth by 2 to 5 percentage points
Potential changes in growth per capita from improving infrastructure to level of African leader (Mauritius)
Key Message #1
Road spending is not adequate to rehabilitate and
maintain deteriorated network
Traffic concentrated along mining corridors that converge on city of Monrovia
Benchmarking indicates poor condition and low paving, alongside relatively high density and low traffic
Unit LIC-Resource
RichLiberia
LIC-Non Fragile
Classified road density
Kms per1,000 km2 land area 57.1 101.4 55.9
Paving ratio % of primary network paved 82.1 39.4 71.6
GIS Rural accessibility
% of rural pop within 2 km from all-season road
19.7 23.7 34.1
Paved road traffic Average Annual Daily Traffic 1,408.2 573.9 1,287.7
Unpaved road traffic
Average Annual Daily Traffic 54.2 17.1 38.5
Classified network condition
% in good or fair condition 79.9 60.0 86.2
Over-engineering% of main road network
over-paved relative to traffic15.0 32.2 29.6
Maintenance and rehabilitation needs of main road network are seriously under-funded at present
Optimal fuel levy would be very high suggesting need for a hybrid approach to maintenance funding
Liberia is already making a significant effort on road sector spending
The key objective is connectivity, which can be achieved at a variety of different standards
Base scenario Pragmatic scenario
Main roads
(regional)
Regional connectivity provided by
800kms of 2-lane paved roads
of which 100% in good condition
Same but with 50% in good condition and
50% in fair condition
Main roads
(national)
National connectivity provided by 1,500kms of 1-lane paved roads
of which 100% in good condition
Same but with 50% in good condition and 50% in fair condition
Feeder roads Rural connectivity provided by 5,700kms of 1-lane unpaved road
of which 100% in good condition
Same but with 50% in good condition and 50% in fair condition
Urban roads Urban connectivity provided by 4,300kms of paved roads putting entire population within 500m of a paved road
of which 100% in good condition
Urban connectivity provided by 1,700kms of paved roads putting entire population within 500m of a paved road of which 50% in good
condition and 50% in fair condition
Cost implications of alternative standards can be very high – a factor of two to one
US$m pa for 10 years Investment O&M Total
Improve Expand Upgrade Total
Base scenario
Main roads 4.9 45.5 0.0 50.5 16.2 66.6
Feeder roads 11.2 11.5 0.0 22.7 11.2 33.9
Urban roads 2.8 11.4 63.6 77.8 9.9 87.7
Other modes 2.2 4.0 0.1 6.2 3.1 9.3
Total 21.1 72.4 63.7 157.1 40.4 197.5
Pragmatic scenario
Main roads 1.6 28.0 0.0 29.6 14.1 43.7
Feeder roads 1.3 3.7 0.0 5.0 12.7 17.7
Urban roads 2.8 9.8 8.2 20.8 9.9 30.7
Other modes 2.2 3.4 0.0 5.6 1.8 7.4
Total 7.9 44.8 8.3 61.0 38.5 99.5
Road freight transport is particularly slow and expensive in West Africa
CorridorLength (kms)
Road in good condition (%)
Trade density
(US$m per km)
Implicit velocity(km
/hr)
Freight tariff ($US/tonne-km)
Western 2050 72 8.2 6.0 0.08
Central 3280 49 4.2 6.1 0.13
Eastern 2845 82 5.7 8.1 0.07
Southern 5000 100 27.9 11.6 0.05
Key Message #2
Freeport of Monrovia now performing quite well by
regional standards
Benchmark indicates Freeport of Monrovia performing relatively efficiently
Monrovia Cotonou Abidjan Tema Apapa Dakar Lome
TRAFFICContainers (‘000 TEU/yr) 50 158 500 420 336 331 460 General cargo (mn tonnes/yr) 0.6 1.1 na 7.9 3.4 6.1 naEFFICIENCYContainer dwell time (days) 15 12 12 25 42 7 13
Truck processing time (hrs) 5.5 6.0 2.5 8.0 6.0 5.0 4.0
Vessel pre-berth waiting (hrs) 3 48 3 9.6 36 24 Vessel stay (hrs) 3 48 2 48 41 60 Container crane productivity (containers/hr)
18 13 12
General cargo crane productivity (tonnes/hr)
16 15 16 14 9 23
CHARGESContainers (US$/ TEU) 200 180 260 168 155 160 220
General cargo (US$/tonne) 10.5 8.5 13.5 10 8 15 9
Key Message #3
Resurgence of air traffic, but safety and security
issues remain a concern
Liberia’s air transport market is small but competitive, but striking lack of renewal of fleet
Air transport activity rebounded following collapse of regional carriers in early 2000s
Key Message #4
Need to consider low cost solutions to address huge
challenge of achieving WSS MDGs
Low dependency on surface water but over half of the population practices open defecation
UnitResource
RichLiberia LIC
Non-FragileAccess to piped water % popn 12.0 2.9 10.5Access to stand posts % popn 12.6 6.8 16.2Access to wells/boreholes % popn 49.0 76.2 38.3Access to surface water % popn 23.7 14.4 37.4Access to flush toilets % popn 1.6 13.4 4.9Access to improved latrines % popn 6.4 14.9 9.9Access to traditional latrines % popn 54.8 15.5 50.1Open defecation % popn 27.6 55.8 40.3
Domestic water consumption liter/capita/day per population served
90.3 55.7 95.7
Revenue collection % sales 69.7 75.0 92.7Distribution losses % production 43.6 28.8 34.3Operating cost recovery % total costs 55.6 100 110Connections per employee number 95.7 195.5 158.6Total hidden costs % revenue 286.7 123.9 121.4
TARIFFS LiberiaScarce Water
Resources
Other developing regions
Residential tariff (at 10 m3) US cents per m3 44.5 60.3 3.0 – 60.0Non-residential tariff (at 100 m3) US cents per m3 221.3 120.7
No progress on open defecation during the last 20 years, major slump in piped water
Demographic and Health Surveys NationalCensus 20081986 2000 2007
WaterPrivate tap 14.6 2.5 2.9 2.4Public or shared tap 22.4 13.2 6.8 46.0Protected wells 19.1 47.3 58.7 11.7Unprotected wells 13.8 28.1 17.5 12.4Surface water 30.1 28.1 14.4 27.5Improved water 56.1 63.0 68.4 60.1Unimproved water 43.9 37.0 31.9 39.9
SanitationFlush toilets 15.2 17.0 13.4 13.5Improved latrines 11.7 13.6 14.9 21.1Unimproved latrines 32.7 16.2 15.5 8.4Open defecation 40.2 50.4 55.8 57.1Improved sanitation 27.0 30.6 28.3 34.6Unimproved sanitation 72.9 69.4 71.3 65.5
Water hidden costs at 124% of revenues are towards middle of West African range
Costs of meeting WSS MDGs is very sensitive to choice of technology for service provision
Mns USD pa Capital expenditure of which: Operations and
maintenance
Grand
total
Expansion Rehabilitation Total
Base scenario
Water 33.6 18.2 51.7 22.7 74.4
Sanitation 23.6 6.6 30.1 17.1 47.2
Total 57.1 24.7 81.8 39.8 121.6
Pragmatic scenario
Water 10.5 18.2 28.6 16.3 45.0
Sanitation 16.2 6.6 22.7 9.7 32.4
Total 26.6 24.7 51.4 26.0 77.4
Key Message #5
Urgent need to slash power costs and expand capacity as a
precursor to raising access
Notable lack of power infrastructure, planned interconnections will play key role
Unit Resource Rich
Liberia LIC-Non-Fragile
Installed power generation capacity MW/mil. people 43.2 2.7 20.2 Power consumption kWH/capita 205.7 87.0 107.4Power outages Day/year 14.5 12.7 10.4 Firms’ reliance on own generator % consumption
44.9 97.1
21.2
Firms’ value lost due to power outages % sales 7.0 2.9 6.5 Access to electricity % population 46.1 0.0 15.0Urban access to electricity % population 79.4 0.0 57.6 Rural access to electricity % population 28.0 0.0 3.9 Growth access to electricity % population/year
2.4
0.8
Revenue collection % billings 81.1 93.0 93.1 System losses % production 25.8 24.8 23.7 Cost recovery % total cost 53.9 55.8 84.4 Total hidden costs as % of revenue % of revenue 168.3 186.7 68.8 Effective power tariff (US cents) Liberia Mainly thermal Other
Developing Regions
Residential at 100 kWh/mo. 43 14.5 5.0 – 10.0
Commercial at 100 kWh/mo. 43 18.8Industrial at 50,000 kWh 43 14.2
Exceptionally low generation capacity and access, exceptionally high prices and even higher costs
Liberia’s hidden costs of power are relatively high by regional standards
Liberia’s power prices are the highest in Africa
Average effective tariff (US cents per kWh)
Power costs in Liberia can be expected to fall substantially in medium term
Operating subsidy
Capital subsidy
Depending on extent of demand growth needs vary from US$122 to US$243 mn pa
US$m pa for 10 years Low Demand
140MW by 2020
High Demand
280MW by 2020
Investment 85 159
Generation 48 121
Transmission & distribution 37 37
Operations & maintenance 36 85
Generation 31 80
Transmission & distribution 5 5
Overall total 122 243
Generation 79 201
Transmission & distribution 43 43
Note: Generation costs taken from World Bank, 2010
Though currently experiencing shortages, medium term power prospects are strong in Cote d’Ivoire
Currently WAPP’s largest power exporter supplying 1.8 TWh to Burkina Faso and Ghana This is already much more than Liberia’s maximum projected
demand of 1.2 TWh in 2020
Continued to honor power export contracts during recent crisis period 2003/07
Significant hydro and gas resources available with relatively low LRMC US$0.07/kWh
Gas reserves limited but ability to tap into Ghana and Nigeria via West Africa Gas Pipeline extension
Strong track record of financing investment in power generation through IPPs (circa 500 MW to date)
Guinea is the ‘sleeping giant’ of the WAPP, but major challenges remain to be overcome
WAPP’s largest potential power exporter with possibility of supplying 17.4 TWh into regional pool This is more than ten times Liberia’s maximum projected demand
of 1.2 TWh in 2020 by 2020
Based on development of 3,700 MW of cost-effective hydro-power with lowest LRMC in WAPP: US$0.06/kWh
Cost of developing power very high relative to Guinea’s economy (>20% GDP) would entail regional finance
Difficult political situation and weak track record on power are additional challenges
A long term vision of regional power trade?
Key Message #6
Huge strides on GSM, next frontiers are internet
connectivity and rural access
GSM coverage developing rapidly, imminent access to submarine cable
Mobile footprint has grown at a much slower pace than GSM penetration
Benchmarking indicates strong level of mobile penetration and exceptionally low calling costs
Source: Preliminary results AICD 2008
Unit Resource Rich Liberia
LIC Non- Fragile
GSM coverage % population 66.9 32.0 42.4International bandwidth Mbps/capita 4.1 0.1 3.0Internet penetration subscribers/100 people 0.1 1.0 0.1Landline penetration subscribers/100 people 19.3 0.1 7.5Mobile penetration subscribers/100 people 11.4 34.0 6.4
Prices Unit
Liberia
Without Submarine
Cable
Other Developing
RegionsMobile basket US$/month 5.2 11.1 9.9Fixed line basket US$/month 13.620-hour Internet package US$/20 hours 140.0 68.0 11.03-min call to US US$/3 min 2.6 2.0Inter-Africa tel. calls US$, mean price 0.7
High international call charges driven both by technology and market power
US$ Percent cases
Call within SSA
Call to USA
Internet dial-up
Internet ADSL
Without submarine cable 67% 1.34 0.86 68 283
With submarine cable 33% 0.57 0.48 47 111
monopoly on international gateway 16% 0.70 0.72 37 120
competitive international gateway 16% 0.48 0.23 37 98
Significant potential for private expansion of GSM coverage, but high coverage gap
Key Message #7
For Liberia to catch-up on infrastructure within a decade
would take spending of US$350-600 million annually
Economic target Social target
ICT Install fiber optic links to neighboring
capitals and submarine cable Provide universal access to GSM signal
and public broadband facilities
Power Develop 280 MW of new generation
capacity plus WAPP inter-connection Raise electrification to 66 percent
(100 percent urban and 6 percent rural)
Transport Achieve regional (national) connectivity with good quality 2-lane (1-lane)
paved road
Provide rural road access to 80 percent of the highest-value agricultural land, and urban road access within 500 meters
WSS Na.
Achieve Millennium Development Goals, clear sector rehabilitation backlog
Possible infrastructure targets over next ten years
$ mn/yr Capital O&M Total
ICT 31 14 45
Power 159 85 244
Transport 157 40 197
WSS 82 40 122
Total 429 179 608
To meet these targets based on conventional standards would cost US$600 mn pa for a decade
$ mn/yr Capital O&M Total
ICT 31 14 45
Power 79 43 122
Transport 61 39 100
WSS 51 26 77
Total 222 122 344
A more pragmatic set of standards would bring the cost down to US$344 mn pa overall
Even more pragmatic standards represent a huge burden relative to Liberia’s economy
Key Message #8
Liberia has been spending around US$90 million per year on
infrastructure (around 10% GDP)
Existing financing flows to Liberia, (average over 5 year period US$ million per year)O&M Investment Total
Public Public ODA Non-OECD PPI Total Investment
ICT 2 0 0 1 17 18 19
Power 7 1 13 1 0 15 23
Transport 7 6 26 1 0 33 39WSS 2 2 5 0 0 7 8
Total 16 9 44 2 17 72 90
Recent infrastructure spending has been US$90 mn pa, most investment is either ODA or PPI
ODA commitments increased in recent years
Existing infrastructure spending is fairly typical though more skewed towards investment
Key Message #9
Liberia could recover a further US$17 million annually by
addressing various inefficiencies
Inefficiencies absorb (at most) US$17 mn pa, most of it associated with under-pricing of services
US$ million ICT Power Transport WSS Total
Over manning 0.7 0.0 0.7
Losses 0.8 1.0 1.8
Under-collection 0.6 0.6 1.1
Budget Execution 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5
Tariff Cost Recovery 2.3* 9.0** 1.7 13.0
Total 0.0 4.5 9.0 3.6 17.1
* Divides almost equally between capital and operating subsidy** Assumes maximum cost recovery fuel levy of up to US$0.25/liter
Operational inefficiencies are relatively low compared with the benchmarks
Under pricing of water and power adds up to 0.5 % of GDP, still low by regional standards
Unlike water, power will only become widely affordable in medium term as costs decline
Based on illustrative five person household on US$1 per capita per day
Affordability threshold Affordability threshold
Key Message #10
Liberia’s funding gap is at least US$250 million per year
Depending on ambition of targets funding gap ranges from US$250 to US$500 mn pa
US$m pa ICT Power Transport WSS Total
BasicNeeds (45) (251) (198) (122) (615)Spending 19 23 39 8 90 Potential gains 0 5 9 4 8 (Gap) (25) (224) (149) (110) (508)
Pragmatic
Needs (45) (122) (100) (77) (344)Spending 19 23 39 8 90
Potential gains 0 5 9 4 8
(Gap) (26) (94) (52) (65) (246)
While gap is daunting, progress can be made by thinking strategically about infrastructure
External finance is on the rise in Liberia Strong performer on PPI and FDI Growing support from OECD and other partners
Many large scale natural resource deals in the pipeline Potential source of fiscal revenues for infrastructure Could contribute directly to infrastructure provision
Growth vision centered on corridors provides solid basis for prioritization of investments
Prospects to further reduce costs in medium term through greater regional trade in WAPP area
Liberia has done relatively well so far at capturing private infrastructure investment; albeit only for ICT
Note: PSP annual disbursements to Ghana, 2002-2007 annual
Absent any increase in spending achievement of targets will be several decades away
Since the peace, there have been signs of renaissance in Liberia’s infrastructure Major expansion in mobile penetration at very low pricesFree Port of Monrovia is performing relatively well Reasonably efficient power and water utilities
Looking ahead, key infrastructure challenges are Expanding power generation capacity to reduce costs Putting in place a sustainable basis for funding road maintenanceAddressing deficit in sanitation
In a nutshell: cross-sectoral findings
Redressing infrastructure situation would cost US$350-600 mn. pa (depending on type of standards set)
Recent infrastructure spending has been US$90 mn. pa (or 10% of 2009 GDP)
A maximum of US$17 mn. pa could be captured by addressing inefficiencies, especially road user charging
If inefficiencies were captured the funding gap would amount to US$250-500 mn. pa
Although daunting relative to today’s GDP, there are reasons to be hopeful and a definite need to be strategic
In a nutshell: Financing framework