Liberals, Populists and Social Movements:What’s going on in Latin America?

Duncan GreenHead of Research, Oxfam

ODA ‘Change of Skin’ seminarApril 2006

Economic Context

Macroeconomic stability with low growth Persistent poverty and inequality Commodity price boom

Political Context

Consolidation of representative democracy But disillusion with economic results fuels

rise of anti-politics and ‘archaic utopias’ End of Cold War frees left from polarization 1990s decentralization provides

battleground for social movements

Political and Economic Constraints

Most left governments are coalitions Low savings and investment lead to

dependence on foreign capital Free trade agreements constrain trade and

investment policies, especially for Mexico Absence of clear alternative model

3 currents of ‘Left’

Liberal-Republican– Archetypes: Chile, Uruguay

Traditional Populism– Archetypes: Venezuela, Peru

Social Movement-based Left– Archetypes: Morales, left of PT

An attempted typology

Country Lib-Republican Populist Grassroots Democracy

Bachelet, Chile X    

Vazquez, Urugy X   X

Lula, Brazil X   X

Kirchner, Argtna X X  

Chavez, Venzla   X  

Lopez Obrador, Mexico

  X  

Humala, Peru   X  

Morales, Bolivia ? X X

Liberal Republicans

Reconstructed ‘hard left’ – built on old CP and guerrilla traditions, now accept core parts of Washington Consensus e.g. markets, macroeconomic stability, low inflation

‘bending and moulding’ neoliberalism, rather than paradigm shift

Tensions within parties (eg PT) Debates similar to European social

democratic left

Traditional Populists

Often military/golpista background with limited commitment to democratic forms (Chavez, Humala)

Personalism + weak institutions ‘bizarre blend of inclusion of the excluded,

macroeconomic folly, and political staying power’ (Castaneda)

Links to commodity prices – the Petropopulists.

Distinctively Latin American

Is Morales the face of a new, social movement-based left?

Six years of sustained social uprising starting in ‘water wars’ of Cochabamba

MAS born out of rural trade unions (not the other way around)

Indigenista Key steps: gas nationalization + constituent

assembly Social Movement and Trade Union leaders

in the cabinet

Possible economic policy: ‘Trade Treaty of the Peoples’, April 2006

Proposed by Evo Morales as ‘a response to the failed neo-liberal model’

Limits and regulates the rights of foreign investors and multinationals so that they serve the purpose of national productive development.

Industrial policy and selective protection of areas of the internal market (including agriculture) which are necessary to preserve the most vulnerable sectors of society.

Essential services must depend on public companies as exclusive providers, regulated by the State.

For more see http://www.boliviasoberana.org/blog/_archives/2006/4/13/1896922.html

Questions for the future

Can other liberal-republicans replicate Chile’s economic success? If not, what happens?

What happens to the populists if commodity prices slump?

Will Morales build something new, or be a repeat of Ecuador?

When/how can a new economic paradigm emerge e.g. developmental state on East Asian lines?