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Leveraging
Urbanization in
South Asia
1
Managing Spatial
Transformation for
Prosperity and Livability
Sohaib Athar
Urban Specialist, Pakistan
Social, Urban, Rural and
Resilience Global Practice
Urbanization in Pakistan
• Pakistan is the most urbanized
large country in South Asia
• Urban centers account for over
half of Pakistan’s GDP
• Urbanization provides an
opportunity to transform
economies and enhance both
prosperity and livability
• Vision 2025 of the Govt. of
Pakistan places a premium on
job growth in cities
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
% of Total Population Urban
Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects (2011)
Urbanization
City size and spatial structure
Agglomeration
economies
Productivity, skills,
jobs & innovation
Congestion
forces
Pressures on
infrastructure &
markets
Outcomes
Prosperity Livability
Governance
& Finance
Land &
Housing
Disaster
Resilience
Connectivity
& Planning
Framework for Harnessing Urbanization
• Officially, roughly 40 percent of Pakistanis live in urban settlements
• Agglomeration Index shows urban share at 56 percent (2010 results)
Considerable hidden urbanization
Source: World Bank staff based on Agglomeration Index (2010) and UN World Urbanization Prospects (2011)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal
% o
f T
ota
l P
op
ula
tio
n U
rb
an
Agglomeration Index United Nations
BGD
BTN
IND
LKA
NPL
PAK
68
10
12
ln G
DP
per
ca
pita
0 20 40 60
AFG
80 100Agglomeration index
South Asia Other
Pakistan is not leveraging agglomeration
properly for prosperity
Source: World Bank staff based on Agglomeration Index (2010), and World Bank World Development Indicators data
PAK
South Asian cities can improve livability
City Ranking
New Delhi
Mumbai
Kathmandu
Colombo
Karachi
Dhaka
110
115
125
127
135
139
Developing country averages
South Asia
All developing exc. South Asia
East Asia and Pacific
125
103
93
Source: EIU (2015), Data reused with permission of the
Economist Intelligence Unit
Urban Poverty Rates
Sindh and Punjab lead in urbanization and
cities’ share of GDP
Source: Based on Census 1998, UN World Urbanization Prospects
(2011) and estimations from Labor Force Survey data
% share of national GDP
GDP per capita,$ (2005, nominal)
Urban Rural Urban Rural
Punjab 35% 25.2% 744 715
Sindh 18% 10.5% 781 644
KP 1.5% 6.5% 394 471
Total 55.2% 44.8% 731 638
Source: Estimates based on World Development Indicators 2012,
Census of Manufacturing Industries 2005-06 and Labor Force Survey
2009-2011 data
Pakistan’s urban corridor intensifying around
key cities
Source: Based on analysis of DMSP night lights data
sss
Source: Based on analysis of DMSP night lights data
Change in Light Intensity between 1999 and 2010
Annual GDP Growth Rate Estimates 1999 to 2010
• The Lahore agglomeration meets
Delhi’s equivalent, forming one
continuously lit belt of 67 cities with
an estimated population of 73.4
million
• This is slightly less than the
population of Turkey
Agglomeration formed despite lack
of regional integration
Crossing borders through urbanization
Multi-city agglomerations in Pakistan
• The formation of new
agglomerations was actually
outpaced by merging of
existing agglomerations
between 1999-2010
• The Lahore agglomeration
has expanded to absorb
those of Chiniot, Gujranwala,
Gujrat, Lalamusa and
Sialkot.
Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), the Earth Institute at Columbia University
Urban Expansion in and around Lahore, 1999 to 2010
o Yellow and green areas: urban footprints in 1999
o Pink areas: urban footprint in 2010
Lahore’s most rapid growth is on the
periphery
Often these agglomerations and
urban expansions have detrimental
effects on the urban cores
Dimming cores, bright peripheries
indicate a move of population or
industry, particularly manufacturing,
to a city’s edges
Pakistan’s cities are growing outward
and not upward, increasing the
challenges for planning,
transportation and providing public
services
Changes in Light Intensity (1999 to 2010) in
Punjab’s major clusters and Sindh province
Source: Based on analysis of DMSP night lights data
• Not only slums, but also sprawl
• Urban footprint (size of the built-up
area) in South Asia growing at 2x
rate of urban population growth
• In Punjab’s large cities, urban land
area expanded by 9.6% per annum
on average from 1999 to 2010
• Medium sized cities 4.3% per
annum
• Multan, Bahawalpur, Khanpur and
Rahim Yar Khan more than 10%
per annum
• These belts present an opportunity,
but will require better coordination
between different urban local
governments
Urbanization has been messy
Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of DMSP-OLS night lights data
Connectivity and market access drive growth
of spatial clusters
• Inter-city transportation links are
very good
• Growth is concentrated along
several clusterso Faisalabad-Lahore-Sialkot triangle
o Islamabad-Rawalpindi corridor
o Karachi-Hyderabad corridor
• Growth is driven by access to
markets, which is produced by
proximity and access to transport
infrastructure
High-tech manufacturing is concentrated
in several clusters
Number of Workers
• Most of Pakistan’s high-tech
jobs are concentrated in a
handful of cities: o Karachi in Sindh, and Lahore,
Sialkot, Gujranwala, and
Rawalpindi and Punjab
o 5 cities represent nearly 43%
of the nation’s total
employment in high-tech jobs
• Nearly 25% of employment
in high tech jobs are found in
what are defined as non-
urban areas in Punjabo Possible that these are
located in urban peripheries or
near major highwaysSource: Estimates from CMI data.
Some cities have high manufacturing jobs
Source: World Bank staff based on Labour Force Surveys 2008-2011
40 36 32 30 29 2518 17
6
3231
31 31 3235
3036
15
87 13
8 1310
1615
42
55 4
97
69
9
4
56 9
68
9 1110
10
108
87
87
12 8
19
16 1 8 3
94 3 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sialkot Faisalabad Karachi Gujranwala Lahore Multan Peshawar Rawalpindi Islamabad
% o
f c
ity
em
plo
ym
en
t
Employment Shares in major cities, by sectors
Manufacturing Trading Public Admin Construction
Transport Health & Education Agriculture Finance
Slum shares exceed high poverty rates
Slums and informal settlements occupied not by only the urban poor,
but also middle income households
Cities face large scale housing needs
CountryUrban population
2010 (000)
Percent of
population living in
slums
Urban slum
population 2010
(000)
Lower-bound est.
housing backlog
2010 (000)
Afghanistan 7,300 88.6 6,468 898
Bangladesh 41,476 61.6 25,549 5,807
Bhutan 253 - - -
India 378,775 17.4 65,907 18,307
Maldives 126 - - -
Nepal 4,990 58.1 2,899 483
Pakistan 62,290 46.6 29,027 4,398
Sri Lanka 3,188 12.0 383 101
Sources: UN World Urbanization Prospects: 2011 Revision; UNESCAP 2012, 126; UN-HABITAT 2013, 126–28; and Office of the Registrar
General and Census Commissioner 2013. Note: – = not available. Data on proportion of urban population living in slums are for the most recently
available years, as follows: 2011 (India); 2009 (Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan); 2005 (Afghanistan and Sri Lanka).
Urbanization
City size and spatial structure
Agglomeration
economies
Productivity, skills,
jobs & innovation
Congestion
forces
Pressures on
infrastructure &
markets
Outcomes
Prosperity Livability
Governance
& Finance
Land &
Housing
Disaster
Resilience
Connectivity
& Planning
Recap: Framework for Harnessing
Urbanization
Empowermentdeficit
Limited, overlapping & fragmented functional
assignments with inappropriate/excessive
central/state/provincial control
Financial basis extremely weak: limited revenue
powers and inappropriately conceived/targeted
intergovernmental transfers
Despite elections & RTI, accountability mechanisms
are weak and underutilized
Resourcedeficit
Accountabilitydeficit
Removing 3 Deficits in Urban governance and
Finance
I N S I G H T S I N T O K A R A C H I ’ S U R B A N E C O N O M Y A N D L A N D S C A P E
Karachi: the megacity of Pakistan
Karachi is vital to Pakistan’s economy
COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYMENT IN KARACHI
Karachi makes a vital contribution to Pakistan’s economy: About 15% of national GDP
Almost 5.5% of domestic employment
GDP per capita 44% higher than nationally
City remains Pakistan’s manufacturing powerhouse
Strong GDP growth and employment generation
But weak productivity growth
Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of Labor Force Survey data
for 2008-2011,
2.8
32.3
31.1
12.9
8.9
7.63.8
0.6
Finance & real estate Manufacuring
Trading Public admin
Transport & comms Health & education
Construction Agriculture
Karachi’s economy is underperforming
given its potential
Karachi
Lahore
Hyderabad, Pakistan
Jakarta
Mumbai Shanghai
Ho Chi Minh City
BangkokCairo
Seoul
Singapore
Doha
Dubai
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Rea
l G
DP
gro
wth
20
06
-20
12
GDP per capita 2006 ($)
750 world cities Karachi Direct comparators Aspirational comparators Best practice examples
Source:Oxford Economics Competitive Cities Database
Average of the largest 750 cities in the world
Karachi: slow economic growth in city core and more rapid
economic growth on periphery
Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of DMSP-OLS radiance-calibrated nighttime lights data
Pattern of night time lights growth between 1999 - 2010
1998
Karachi’s population has expanded rapidly as the
city has acted as a magnet for migrants
Source: World Bank Analysis based on 1998 Population Census and JICA 2010-2011 Karachi Household Survey
2010
Karachi: Job opportunities are mainly
clustered downtown
Source: World Bank Analysis based on 1998 Population Census and JICA 2010-2011 Karachi Household Survey
Density of Jobs in Karachi (2010), by Union Council
Karachi: Skilled workers live close to jobs
but unskilled live further away
Source: World Bank Analysis based on 1998 Population Census and JICA 2010-2011 Karachi Household Survey
Distribution of Skilled Workers by Residence (2010), by Union Council
Distribution of Unskilled Workers by Residence (2010), by Union Council
Karachi Land Use 2001
2013: Periphery Expansion
Expansion on periphery
“construction”remains
Karachi City expansion characterized by
development at the periphery
Land “under construction” in 2001 Land “under construction” in 2013
Source: World Bank staff analysis based on data from Government of Sindh Urban Policy Directorate & European Space Agency
Land within city core
Periphery growth with road grid
Ad-hoc periphery growth
“Leapfrog” outside city
Private 3.9% Recent Allocations 2.7%
Highly fragmented control of land in
Karachi – many agencies
Distribution of Land Ownership / Control in Karachi Division (% of 3,600 sqkm)
Federal
12.3%
Province
48.5%
Local
32.7%
Others
6.6%
DHA
5%
KirtharNational Park
21%
Karachi Metropolitan Corporation (KMC)
30.9%
Govt. of Sindh
17.7%LDA
5.6%
MD
A
3.9
%
Cooperati
ve
Housing
Societies
1.8%
KPT
2.8%
Cantt.
Boards
2.1%
GoP
0.5%Port
Qasim
1.5%
Railways
0.4%
SITE
0.6%
» Generally fragmented throughout city
» Large and small parcels
» Large tracks mostly within city core
» Large tracks inland and at periphery
Source: Karachi Strategic Development Plan 2020, City District Govt. Karachi
Moving towards prosperous and livable cities
• Pakistan’s policymakers
must focus on alleviating
both current and future
congestion pressures
• Strengthen urban
governance and finance
• Manage urban sprawl
and expansion
• Focus on city core
rejuvenation
Thank youFor more on this study, refer to the full report:
Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia:
Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability
Available at
www.worldbank.org/southasiacities