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Copyright © 2012
EAI, INC.(Energy Analysts International)
Westminster, Colorado
1
Copyright © 2012
Utica Shale Extract and Focusfor
Crude Oil Quality AssociationBy
EAI, Inc.November 8, 2012
EAI, Inc.’s U.S. North American Shale Fairway Crude Supply, Logistics,
Refining and Pricing Outlook Study
2
Copyright © 2012
3
Global Interactions
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2012
GATEWAY
TMPLPORTAL NORTH EXPORT
BUTTE LOOP
ENBRIDGE EXPANSION
LONGHORN
MARKETLINK
(LINE‐9) REVERSAL
OHIO ACCESS
SEKCO LUCIUS
EPL ‐ EAGLFORD
KOCH – NUSTAR ‐ CC
KEYSTONE XL
SPEARHEAD ‐ EXP
17
18
2
19
16
1
4
141511
1013
8
3
9
57
12
6
EAI, Inc. North American Crude Production, Supply, Logistics, Refining and Pricing Network Modeling
ANS IMPORT
FOREIGN IMPORT
FOREIGN IMPORT
WATERBORNEIMPORT
EXPRESS / PLATTE
CAPLINEMIDVALLEY
Crude Routes/Flows
Crude routes & flows by grade linking production/supply to refining. Basis for crude pricing relationships, production values/netbacks, refinery laid in crude opportunities, network constraints, etc.
SEAWAY
SEAWAY/ XL (Cnstr)
EAI, Inc.’s New Study Release: North American Shale Fairway Crude Supply, Logistics, Refining & Pricing Outlook
Copyright © 2012
Crude Supply, Distribution & Refining Outlook Information and Modeling Process
Supporting EAI, Inc.’s North American Crude and Shale Fairway Studies other EAI, Inc. Resource Based Industry Studies & EAI’ Inc.’s Client Specific Consulting
Study Basis Component Analysis Integrated Network Analysis
Program Output
Outlook for Crude Pricing Relationships
Incremental/ Replacement Crude Oil vs Refined Product Outlook
Transportation/ Port Facility Outlook
Feedstock Availability and Supply Strategy by Refining Area
Outlook for Refining & Potential Closures
Crude Production Trends and Outlook by Area
Crude Transportation Network Capabilities and Flows
Crude Supply Economics
Refinery Processing Capabilities and Feedstock
Outlook
Regional Crude Balances
Replacement / Incremental Crude Supply Outlook
Refinery Facility Outlook
Refinery Feedstock and Blendstock Outlook
EAI, Inc.'s Crude Oil Network Balance Forecast
Crude Price Forecast and Price
Relationships
Characterization of NA Crude Network
Environmental Regulation Outlook
Product Supply Demand Trends and Outlook
4
Copyright © 2012
Integrated & Regional Approach to AnalysisPetroleum Supply ‐ Demand Network
RefinedProductMarkets
Crude Oil/Other
FeedstockProduction
Resources
• Market Access
• Market Growth
• Product Pricing
• Logistics• Costs• Capacity
• Configuration/ Capacity
• Yields• Costs• Network Links
• Logistics• Costs• Capacity
• Production Trends
• Production Economics
• Quality• Price
• Resource/ Base• Geological/ Reservoir Parameters
• Finding Costs
GLOBAL FACTORS
Regional Supply ‐ Demand Network
Regional ‐ Facility Specific Factors
• Economics• Technology • Company/Business• Policy
Refining
ProductTransportation
andDistribution
FeedstockBlend Stock
Transportationand
Distribution
5
Copyright © 2012
Utica Shale: Production Outlook
6
EAI, Inc.’s U.S. North American Shale Fairway Crude Supply, Logistics,
Refining and Pricing Outlook Study
Copyright © 2012
North American Resource PlaysThe primary shale plays shown below extend from the Bakken to the Gulf Coast and up to Utica.
NIOBRARA
MANCOS
NIOBRARA
HILLIARDBAXTER
FOOTHILLS
DEVONIANMARCELLUS
EAGLE FORDWOLFBERRY
WCSB
PRB
GGRB
DJ
SJB
ORDOVICIANUTICA SHALE
DEVONIANANTRIMNEW ALBANY
DEVONIANWOODFORD
MONTEREYSHALE
DEVONIAN‐MISSBAKKEN
AVALONBONE SPRING
COLONYGRANITE WASH
MISSISSIPPIAN
205
220
8
88‐PA17‐WV13‐OH
112
87
5753
46
29
20
18
14
8 2
17
RIG COUNT 2012RIG COUNT 2012HZ DRILLING IS HZ DRILLING IS FOCUSED ON OIL WITHFOCUSED ON OIL WITHWEST TEXAS & WILLISTONWEST TEXAS & WILLISTONHAVING TOP 2 PLAYSHAVING TOP 2 PLAYS
MONTNEYHORN RIVER
7
Sources:USGS: Intek Recoverable resource estimates; EUR Estimates: Operator Quarterly Reports and UGCenter.com; Rig count data: BAKER HUGES, CAODC
Copyright © 2012
8
MARCELLUSWET GAS
UTICA WET GASPLAY (OHIO)
RECENT DEVELOPMENT
Non‐Vertical WellsMarcellus
MICHIGANBASIN
NEW ALBANY
TRENTON
ANTRIM SHALE
ANTRIM SHALE
ILLINOIS BASIN APPALACHIAN
BASIN
GAS OUTPUTBY COUNTY 2011E
GAS OUTPUTBY COUNTY 2011E
Midwest/Northeast Resource PlaysMost of the Midwest and Appalachia is dominated by natural gas with both coal and organic shale as source rocks. Higher liquid content is found in the western Marcellus and western Utica shale of Ohio and Pennsylvania. The southern portion of the Illinois Basin has produced light crude since
1860’s with peak output of 220 MBPD in the late 1950’s. The USGS and Ohio DNR indicate recoverable reserves ranging from 1.3 ‐5.0 billion barrels.
Copyright © 2012
Midwest and Eastern Shale PlaysUtica Shale could replace the Marcellus as the leading source of
new gas and liquids supply in the Northeast. Of the 30 wells completed in the Utica through Oct 2012, most of the liquids appear to be ultra‐light crude‐condensate range.
Michigan BasinUtica ShalePlay Outline
Marcellus ShalePlay Outline
New Albany (Oil)Source rock
GASTAR UTICA SHALE
15.5 MMCFD / 1100 BCPD. MARSHALL CO WV
CHESAPEAKE HAS 13 RIGS IN UTICA PLAY. HAS
DRILLED 134 WELLS TO DATE ( 12 PRODUCING).
ENCANA - DEVONDRILLING UTICA –
COLLINGWOOD SHALETESTS IN MICHIGAN
REX ENERGY EXPANDING ON SUCCESS IN MARCELLUS. 5 UTICA WELLS DRILLED AS OF
JUNE-2012Appalachian
Basin
UTICAGAS
UTICAGAS-COND
UTICAOIL
GULFPORT ENERGY3 WELLS COMPLETED
COMMITTED TO MARKWEST PROCESSING
HARRISON CO, OH
CONSOL – HESS JVPLAN 20 WELLS DURING
2012
9
EAGLE FORD TREND
Copyright © 2012
Midwest and Eastern Shale PlaysMarcellus and Utica
Ohio crude: called “Pennsylvania Grade” crude which was produced from sandstone and limestone reservoirs at depths of 300‐1600 feet. Wells typically produced less than 50 BOPD. Most of the liquids being recovered from the Marcellus have been NGL as derived from gas processing. The Utica has higher crude content with liquids increasing to the west of the Marcellus fairway in PA and Ohio.
Utica & Point Pleasant shales (Orodivician) underlie the Marcellus (Devonian) and presents a much larger area for exploration. As with the Marcellus, the mature deep source rocks contain dry gas with wet gas, condensate and oil found in progressively shallower sediment. The Utica liquids play is most active in eastern Ohio.
Reserves Potential: USGS 2011 assessment gives the Marcellus technically recoverable reserves of 84 TCF and 3.4 Billion barrels of NGL. This compares with 2.0 TCF and 0.01 Billion barrels NGL reported for the Marcellus in the Appalachian Basin in the 2002 assessment. The 2012 Utica Shale assessment cites technically recoverable reserves of 38 TCF, 208 million barrels NGL and 940 Million barrels oil. Utica development could take as many as 110,000 wells in the Gas window and 17,500 wells would fit within the oil window.
Horizontal rig count: 30 active in Ohio as of October 2012. Roughly 176 horizontal wells had been drilled out of 423 drilling permits issued for Utica in Ohio through June 2012. (Many of those Horizontal Permits target Marcellus oil along the OH‐PA state line).
Completions: Roughly 36 Utica‐Point Pleasant Hz wells completed to date. Initial production tests available for less than 20 of these with most ranging from dry gas to very wet gas and condensate.
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Copyright © 2012
11U.S. Central CorridorMidwest and North Eastern Resource Plays
Midwest: comprised of IL, IN, OH, MI, produced 56 MBPD during 2011. Of these states, only Ohio has enough recent resource based completions to allow speculation of potential reserves. PA reserves are published.
Positive factors include well defined source rock, up to 450 feet thick, with estimated recoverable reserves ranging from 1.5‐5.0 billion barrels oil & 4‐15 TCF natural gas, high GOR provides reservoir ‘energy’, natural fracture network, low water saturation, good ‘brittle’ rock properties, Senate Bill 165: signed into Ohio oil and gas law in 2010, intended to streamline permit and operational reporting process. Ohio Senate Bill 315: introduced March 2012, adds horiz well language and procedures.
Unknowns: the size of the sweet spots, shallower depth range (5‐8000 feet) could require higher permeability for oil completions, surface constraints and environmental resistance (as with all plays in NE).
Other Plays: The Devonian and Ordovician shales in each of the Illinois Basin and Michigan basin have similar characteristics to the Utica Shale play in OH. Trenton‐Black River: found immediately below the Utica, extends from Illinois to New York and has historically been a natural gas target. Contribution of crude from Ordovician play in southern Ontario has been less than 1 MBPD.
Michigan Basin: Collingwood Shale (gas) & A‐1 Carbonate: rumoured to be richer in liquids. Drilling is underway in deeper sediment of the Michigan (South and Central Michigan) by Devon, Sinclair, Encana and others. Historically, exploration had focused on conventional traps (reefs and carbonate pinchouts) and structural features updip from the central source rock bearing region with oil gravity ranging from 26‐49° API in the shallow higher liquid bearing fields. The largest field in the state is the 39 mile long Albion‐Pulaski‐Scipio trend which has produced over 150 million barrels from the Trenton at roughly 3500 feet.
New Albany: Oil bearing objective in the southern Illinois basin has produced roughly 4 billion barrels to date. The Devonian shale (Antrim equivalent) is similar in many regards to the Bakken and is being tested by several independent operators. Drawbacks are the shallow depth of proven oil saturation and corresponding reduction in reservoir energy.
Eastern Canadian: Collingwood Formation (Lower Utica‐Trenton age equivalent) exploration since 2009 is gas dominated with initial potential ranging as high as 12 MMCFPD. Players: Forest, Talisman, Questerre.
Copyright © 2012
12Comparison of Type Curves: Utica Shale (oil play)2 Play Types, 4 Cases averaged (industry sources)
EAI, INC. MODEL HZ ASSUMPTIONS
OIL PLAY: 300 MBO BASE CASE (AVG) WELL COST: $4.5‐5.5 MM
HIGH GAS CASES (LOW LIQUIDS) NOT INCLUDED IN THIS AVERAGE
30 RIGS ACTIVE IN UTICA OILPLAY IN OHIO.
UTICACrude andWet Gas
OH PA
Copyright © 2012
Drilling Economy of Scale plus Significant Sweet Spot Key to Play Success: Ultimately the liquids output from each play will depend on rig count and the distribution of EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) from wells. Historically, ‘resource plays’ have a broad range of statistical outcomes. Typically, a relatively small number of high EUR wells make the play profitable while the sum of the medium to low EUR wells contribute to an overall play average return in the 10‐20% range.
Frontend Investments: Operators must be able to drill enough wells to satisfy the statistical curve. Furthermore, since most of the cash flow is concentrated in the first 6‐12 months of production, the number of wells drilled in a given year will be very sensitive to oil and gas pricing.
Representative Play Profile: 558 wells were drilled and yielded an average of 168 MBO / well in sales. However, looking at the table; roughly 30% of the wells did not payout (based on A 100 MBO payout). Using the same tableit is apparent that the 200‐300 MBOE wells represent one thirdof overall output.
Resource Plays – AKA Treadmill Plays
TOTAL SALES FROM 548 WELLS = 93 Million Barrels
169 MBOE/ WELL
13
EUR MBO Count EUR Frequency PctEUR (1‐50) 20 500 3.6%EUR (50‐100) 155 11625 26.8%EUR (100‐150) 112 14000 19.6%EUR (150‐200) 94 16450 17.2%EUR (200‐250) 72 16200 12.5%EUR (250‐300) 51 14025 9.3%EUR (300‐350) 24 7800 4.7%EUR (350‐400) 18 6750 5.1%EUR (400‐450) 8 3400 1.5%EUR (450‐500) 2 950 0.1%EUR (over 500) 3 1575 0.6%
Total 548 93125 100.0%
Copyright © 2012
14Midwest and Eastern Shale PlaysMarcellus and Utica
Using a simple combination of EUR and potential locations, the Utica fairway can generate over 300 MBPD of stocktank liquids (crude and condensate) with 60 rigs by 2015‐2016. Most of the wells drilled
in Ohio during 2012 are still waiting on completion or pipeline connection.
JAN 2012
COMPLETIONS COMPLETIONS COMPLETIONS COMPLETIONS COMPLETIONSANNUAL WELL COUNT 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014OH UTICA 0 10 252 639 639PA UTICA OIL 1 1 25 186 186MARCELLUS WET GAS 2 315 629 786 786
Copyright © 2012
15Midwest and Eastern Shale PlaysForecast based on 60 rigs continuously active in the
Utica Crude‐Condensate corridorForecast crude increase is heavily weighted toward Ohio side of Utica Shale play although only a small proportion of the overall fairway is required to keep the 60 rig fleet active through 2020. Utica has similar well potential in northwestern PA (5 counties) and NE West Virginia (6 counties) but with less physical area than Ohio (22 counties). Horizontal rig count as of April 2012 were: OH (30), PA (64), WV (25). PA‐WV activity includes Marcellus. No rigs in NY due to ongoing review of frac concerns.
Copyright © 2012
16Midwest and Eastern Shale PlaysStatewide Natural Gas Production MMCFPD
Natural gas output from PA quadrupled in 2011 with PA total crude condensate increasing to 10‐15 MBPD by year end. The below Scenario shows the impact of natural gas production from Utica shale, starting in 2013, if the Utica were to expand at half the rate of the Marcellus. Data not
available for North East States until March of the following year.
PA HELD AT 10 PCT GROWTH AFTER 2014(SOME FORECAST MARCELLUS GROWTH TO OVER 17 BCFPD BY 2020).
PA HELD AT 10 PCT GROWTH AFTER 2014(SOME FORECAST MARCELLUS GROWTH TO OVER 17 BCFPD BY 2020).
Incremental wet gas required to fillATEX NGL pipeline as scheduled inMarkwest 2012 guidance.
Incremental wet gas required to fillATEX NGL pipeline as scheduled inMarkwest 2012 guidance.
Copyright © 2012
17Natural Gas Consumption by State, BCFPDThe estimated average natural gas consumption through midyear 2012, for the area shown below,
amounted to 24 BCFPD with NY & IL having the largest statewide demand. Shortfall in local natural gas supply is offset by imports from Canada, the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain producing
states.
D -3.3 D - 2.1
D -0.7
D-0.7
D - 2.7
D-0.9
D-2.1
D-3.9
D -2.8D -2.9
D-1.2
D-0.3
D- 1.4
S -0.0 S - 0.0
S – 0.4
S-0.0
S- 0.5
S -0.0
S-0.0
S-0.1
S -0.3S -5.0
S-0.4
S -0.8
S 0.0
D- CONSUMED-BCFPD
S -PRODUCED-BCFPD
SOURCE: EAI.GOV
Copyright © 2012
18
SOURCE: http://www.dcnr.state.pa.us/ucmprd2/groups/public/documents/document/dcnr_009755.pdf
Pennsylvania ActivityMarcellus and Utica : Horizontal well activity (red dots) is concentrated in Bradford , Susquehana, Lycoming & Tioga Counties in the north and in Washington and Greene
Counties in the southwest.
UTICAOILFAIRWAY
UTICA DRY GASFAIRWAY
The wet gas window for the Marcellus is characterized by an increase from 1050 BTU (dry gas) to 1250‐1350 BTU (wet gas) roughly parallel to the Utica wet gas transition line shown to the left.
Marcellus rich gas wells recover 25‐100 MB of condensate, 250‐300 MB of NGL and 3.5‐4.5 BCFG for a sum total EUR of 6.4 BCFG.
Utica oil in PA is still in exploration stage
Butler
Clarion
Washington
Beaver
UTICAWET GASFAIRWAY
Copyright © 2012
19Ohio ActivityUtica activity is concentrated along the wet‐gas / crude corridor in Carroll, Columbiana, and Harrison counties. Some Marcellus wells along the OH‐PA state line in Jefferson, Monroe and
Belmont Counties.
UTICAOILFAIRWAY
UTICAWET GASFAIRWAY
UTICA DRY GASFAIRWAY
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The Utica & Point Pleasant oil window is found at 5,000 to 6,000 feet and transitions to wet gas with increased depth to the east. The deep Utica is dry gas bearing in most of PA.
Initial production rates have been released for roughly a dozen of the ROUGHLY 30 completions reported through July 2012.
PA ‐U
TICAACTIV
ITY
HZ_WELL_LOCS by Status
# Completed (12)
# Drilled (80)
# Drilling (35)
) Permitted (167)
# Plugged (1)
# Producing (21)
CHSPKENeider 3H980 BPD / 3800 MCFPD
CHSPKEBurgett 7‐15‐6 8H‐RS720 BPD / 2100 MCFPD
CHSPKEMangun Mangun 8H1015 BPD / 3100 MCFPD
CHSPKEShaw 20‐14‐5 5H770 BPD / 2900 MCFPD
CHSPKE SEPT 2011 DISCOVERYBuell 10‐11‐5 10H1425 BPD / 9500 MCFPD
CHSPKEConglio 7‐14‐4 6H290 BPD / 5000 MCFPD
CNX Gas Hendricks MAHN2AHSU758 BPD / MCFPD
CHSPKEMurvay Por 8H583 BPD / MCFPD
GULFPORT 6 Utica Wells drilled. Waiting on frac job to cureBefore flowing back.Belmong & Guernsey
GULFPORT
Copyright © 2012
Utica Shale: Refining and Transportation
20
EAI, Inc.’s U.S. North American Shale Fairway Crude Supply, Logistics,
Refining and Pricing Outlook Study
Copyright © 2012
SLCCHI
OZARK
CU
DEN
BC
BKR
CSP
EXPRESS
BUTTE
PLATTE
CLR
EDM
HRD
SRN
HST
CC
PTK
BTR
LGV
TMPL
ENBR
ENBRKEYSTONE
ENBR ND
ENBR
PEGASUS
SEAWAYBASIN
WTG
LONGHORN
CENTURION
KMELPMDL
BRG MID-VALY
CAPLINE
S. ACCESS
D1
C
F
H
A
L
M
N
O
P
R
B
I
D2
S
K
L
Canadian‐U.S. Crude Oil Pipeline NetworkChanging Conductivity Across the North American Shale Fairway
MAP REF PROJECT TARGET
ASOUTHERN ACCESS –FLANAGAN 400 MBPD
COMPLETED SPRING 2009
C ENBRIDGE GATEWAY (CRUDE) 580 MBPD/150 COND
D1 TMX‐2 DONE, TMX 3 PLANNING 300 MBPD BY 2015
D2 TMX NORTHERN EXPORT 400 MBPD post 2015
FCDN WATERBORNE EXPORT TO US PSW
LIMITED VIA BURNABY
KEYSTONE TO WOOD RIVER DONE JUNE 2010
CUSHING LINK ‐ 155 MBPD DONE FEB 2011
KEYSTONE XL – GULF COAST EXTENSION 500‐700 MBPD
TARGET 2013
KEYSTONE BAKKENLINK CONNECT BAKER MT
KSEAWAY REVERSAL (150 MBPD, EXPAND TO 400 IN 2014)
STARTED UP MAY‐2012
H
I
MAP REF PROJECT TARGET
L KM‐PONY EXPRESS CRUDE TARGET 200 MBPD 2014
MPEGASUS EXPANSION TO 95 MBPD
COMPLETED JUNE 2009
NTRANSCANADA‐ LOUISIANA ACCESS
CONCEPT
OBUTTE EXPANSION‐150 MBPD IN 2012
TARGET 200 MBPD 2013
PLINE‐9 REVERSAL ‐ TRAILBREAKERS 240 MBPD
SHELVED JULY 2012
PLINE‐9 REVERSAL ‐ TRAILBREAKERS 240 MBPD
SHELVED JULY 2012
RSPEARHEAD EXPANSION TO 190 MBPD
COMPLETED MAY2009
ENBRIDGE ND (PORTAL) EXPANDED TO 161 MBPD
JAN 2010 –DONE
PORTAL NORTH – 140 ND TO CDN
TARGET 2013
TPORTAL NORTH – 140 ND TO CDN
TARGET 2013
S
21
Copyright © 2012
CRUDE RUNS BY HUBFOREIGN GRADES AND DOMESTICMBPD 11,000
5,500
1,100
FRGN_LGHT_MDM_HVY_SWTFRGN_LGHT_SRFRGN_HVY_SRDMST_TTL_MAINLY_LGHT
Refinery Hub Crude Slate SummaryNorth American Shale Fairway Refinery Hubs, Plants Crude Basins & Pipeline ConductivityForeign crude summarized by grade category. Domestic crude consists primarily of light sweet and light sour crude
with the exception of GOM‐Mars medium sour, OK‐Velma heavy and Wyoming heavy crude streams.EAI, Inc. tracks and analyzes all plants; Shale Fairway consists of 23 refinery hubs and 88 plants
HOUSTONPASADENA
BEAUMONTPT. ARTHUR
LK CHRLS
BATON ROUGECRDR‐ALNC
TX CITY
WTX ANDPANHANDLE
PSCGLA
CORPUS CHR
CHICAGO
MINPL‐SPER
DTRT‐TLDO
W‐OHE‐OH
S‐MW
CHYN‐CSPR
DNVR‐CO
SLC‐SW‐WY
WRV_RBSN
WCHT_PNCA
TLSA_CFYV
BLNG_MT
S‐OK
22
INLAND‐EGC
MNDN
Copyright © 2012
Mid Valley
Spearhead
Lima
SARNIA
ChiCap
Mustang
LINE 6B
Lakehead &Southern Access
Toldeo
BP
238
219
275
150
460
340
CHICAGO
PLATTE-143KEYSTONE-435 PATOKA
CAPLINE
623
Enbridge – Lakehead %
%
%
%
Pegasus
Midwest and Eastern Crude InfrastructureCrude pipeline access into OH‐PA‐KY is somewhat limited. Refined product pipeline network is extensive and has some surplus capacity. New construction is focused on NGL export from
Marcellus & Utica Plays.
PHASE IIISouthern Access
CHEROKEEOZARK -
325
1140
275
Enbridge – LINE-9
240
LINE-7
ROBINSON
WARREN
SUPERIOR
DELAWARE CITY
YORKTOWN
CATLETTSBURG
MT VERNON
WOOD RIVER
EAGLE POINT
CANTON
LINDEN
MEMPHIS
VA
PA
NY
OH
East coast and Ohio refiners could benefit from low cost hydrogen (from natural gas) and increased liquids from the growing OH western PA supply. Most of the liquids are NGL range material.
Marathon Cattlettsburg & Canton OH refineries are targets for Utica crude output.
Excess NGL is to be exported to Quebec or the GC on new or expanding pipelines
Midstream and producers using rail and barge to market NGL. look to new storage capacity as solution to near term gas overhang
ATEXMARCELLUS ETHANEGREENSBURG PA TO
MONT BELVIEU TX190 MBPD CAPY BY
2014
MARINER WEST ETHANELIBERTY PA TO
SARNIA ONTARIO75 MBPD CAPY by 2013
MIDVALLEY
MARATHON
WILLIAMSATLANTIC ACCESS
PL(GA TO TRANSCO)
MARINER EAST- NGL LIBERTY PA TOPHILADELPHIA
50 MBPD CAPY by 2013
REFINERY
1140 PL Capacity, MBPD
23
Copyright © 2012
Ohio‐PA NGL InfrastructureNew Fractionation Facilities and NGL Export Pipelines.
FRACTIONATION PLANT
1140 PL Capacity, MBPD
PLANTNAME COMPNAME TARGET CAPY MBPDETHANE CRACKER SHELL 2012 75HOUSTON MARKWEST ACTIVE 60MAJORSVILLE MARKWEST ACTIVE ‐MOBLEY MARKWEST 2013 ‐SHERWOOD MARKWEST 2014 ‐NOBLE I‐III MARKWEST 2013 ‐DE‐ETHANIZER MARKWEST 2014 40HARRISON 1‐3 MARKWEST 2013 40NATRIUM DOMINION 2012 60
NGL PIPELINE OPERATOR TARGET CAPY MBPDATEX (ETHANE) ENTERPRISE 2014 190MARINER WEST MARKWEST 2013 75MARINER EAST MARKWEST 2014 90GATEWAY GAS DOMINION 2012 ‐NGL TO HOUSTON MARKWEST 2014 115BUTLER NGL MARKWEST 2014 20
SHELLETHANE CRACKER
HARRISON I‐iiiFRACTIONATOR
MOBLEY320 MMCFD
SHERWOOD400 MMCFD
NOBLE I‐III45 MMCFDEXPAND TO200 MMCFD
MARKWESTBLUESTONEGAS PLANTS
DOMINIONNATRIUM
200 MMCFD
MARKWESTHOUSTON
FRACTIONATOR
MARINER EAST-90
MARINER WEST-75
ATEX – 190TO
MONT BELVIEU
CANTON
PITTSBURGH
YOUNGSTOWN
AKRON
MAJORSVILLE270 MMCFDEXPAND TO 800 MMCFD
WV
PAOHMARKWESTDE‐ETHANIZER
24
Copyright © 2012
Implications of Supply Growth 25
Base Case: In the base case scenario, PA & OH crude output rises to 250 MBPD by 2015‐16. This volume of light sweet crude is sufficient to displace most if not all of the sweet crude currently being refined in Ohio and Kentucky. Most of the current feedstock is conveyed into Ohio by the MidValley pipeline, Enbridge pipeline from Canada, or the Marathon operated system originating in Patoka.
Surplus: Surplus crude to be exported via barge and rail over near term. No crude pipeline projects in works for now .
60 MBPD of Canadian crude reaches Ohio via the Enbridge Ohio Access pipeline completed in 1999 and other routes via Patoka, IL. Some of the imported heavy blend and synthetic grades are committed and or integrated volumes and are less likely to be backed out by Ohio sweet.
853 MBPD of foreign crude delivered to Northeast refiners during first half of 2012. Of this volume, 79 percent is light (sweet or sour) and heavy sweet grades.
Copyright © 2012
Mid Valley
Spearhead
Lima
SARNIA
ChiCap
Mustang
LINE 6B
Lakehead &Southern Access
Toldeo
BP
238
219
275
150
460
340
CHICAGO
PLATTE-143KEYSTONE-435 PATOKA
CAPLINE
623
Enbridge – Lakehead %
%
%
%
%
%
%
Pegasus
Ohio Petroleum Logistical Shift PotentialIncrease of Ohio crude output to 300 MBPD as outlined in the base case scenario would have
several knock‐on effects that extend from western Canada to the U.S. East Coast refining region.
PHASE IIISouthern Access
CHEROKEEOZARK -
325
1140
275
Enbridge – LINE-9
240
LINE-7
ROBINSON
WARREN
SUPERIOR
DELAWARE CITY
YORKTOWN
CATLETTSBURG
MT VERNON
WOOD RIVER
EAGLE POINT
CANTON
LINDEN
MEMPHIS
VA
PA
NY
OH
REFINERY
• Increased local crude supply could stimulate refinery expansion,
• Change refined product trade across Midwest, including pipeline imports from GC and exports via east coast ports
• Trigger pipeline conversions for crude and product export from Ohio and Pennsylvania
• Back out WTX, Canadian crude supply and/or displace waterborne crude imports.
• Similar and longer list of NGL‐LNG logistical shifts will be realized with long term natural gas supply growth
1140 PL Capacity, MBPD
MIDVALLEY
MARATHON
Potential displacement of Canadian Synthetic
Excess refined product pushing east
Shorter haul than Bakken to NE refining
Could displace
WTI on MidValley
Pipeline
Could displace
crude supply
from Patoka
26
Copyright © 2012
Who are we?
EAI, Inc. (Energy Analysts International) is a provider of leading edge and high quality products, consulting and services for a growing U.S. domestic and international client base.
EAI, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Westminster Colorado.
The company’s niche was and continues to be a “bottom‐up” and integrated approach to developing opportunities, projects and strategies for companies ranging in size from the Fortune 500 to smaller, regional niche entities.
EAI, Inc. has evolved a multidisciplinary staff and proven processes to develop and deliver value to its clients drawing on a comprehensive business vision, proven business models and processes, applied Information technologies and comprehensive information resources.
EAI, Inc. Global Resource Group has worked with crude producers, crude buyers, traders, pipeline companies and refiners assessing production developments and outlooks, crude logistics, crude options for refiners, crude pricing and supply economics, crude marketing and crude value assessments.
27
Copyright © 2012
EAI, Inc. Global ResourceGroup
Industry Studies
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EAI, Inc.
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EAI, Inc. Contact Information 29
Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2012
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EAI, Inc.(Energy Analysts International)
12000 N Pecos StSuite 310
Westminster, CO 80234United States
P: +1.303.469.5115F: +1.303.469.4722Web: crudehub.com
Steve M. [email protected]
Joseph J. [email protected]
EAI, Inc.EAI, Inc.(Energy Analysts International) (Energy Analysts International)
12000 N Pecos St12000 N Pecos StSuite 310Suite 310
Westminster, CO 80234Westminster, CO 80234United StatesUnited States
P: +1.303.469.5115P: +1.303.469.5115F: +1.303.469.4722F: +1.303.469.4722Web: Web: crudehub.comcrudehub.com
Steve M. FiillinghamSteve M. [email protected]@eaiweb.com
Joseph J. [email protected]