© 2009

LED ManufacturingTechnologies & Costs

SEMICON WESTJuly 2009

Presented by: Jeff Perkins perkins@yole.fr

45 rue Sainte Geneviève, F-69006 Lyon, France

Tel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83

Web: http://www.yole.fr

Nitronex

OSRAMAixtron OSRAMCREELumileds

© 2009 • 2

Yole Développement

• Yole Développement is a market research and strategy consulting company, founded in 1998 with headquarters in Lyon, France.

• Our fields of competence include:

• MEMS

• Microfluidics

• Compound Semiconductor (SiC, GaN, AlN, ZnO)– Power electronics, LED & HB LED, RF devices

• Photovoltaic, from equipment and materials to cell business

• Advanced Packaging (3D IC, TSV, SoC, WLP)

• Nanomaterials

• Our market research is performed by in-house personnel conducting open-ended discussion based interviews.

• 20 full time analysts with technical and marketing degrees

• Primary research includes over 2,500 interviews annually

© 2009 • 3

Our Activity is Global

Yole Inc.

Allendale, NJ

Yole Développement

Lyon (HQ).

Global Information

Inc. (Partner)

30% of our business is

in North America 30% of our business is

in Asia

40% of our business is

in EU Countries

© 2009 • 4

Yole Développement ServicesSee us at Booth 6577

Strategy & Technology Consulting Services

• Market research and marketing analysis

• Technology evaluation

• Process costing and Reverse costing

• Financial services with Yole Finance

Market & Technology Reports

• 20-25 reports per year

• Purchase individually or through annual subscription

Custom Workshops

• Customized data and information

Yole Media & Communication Support

• Micronews monthly e-zine

• 3D Packaging News, PV Manufacturing News, MEMSentry

• www.i-Micronews.com

© 2009

LED MarketOverview

© 2009 • 6

LED Status Summary

• The LED market was ≈ $5.1B in 2008 with a volume of over 50 billion units.– Low-end LED products account for 83%

– High-Brightness LEDs 15%

– Emerging Ultra High-Brightness products 2%

• LED applications are currently dominated by portable device backlighting – Mobile phones, PDA, GPS

• Higher brightness LEDs have begun to address other promising markets like

automotive, LCD backlight and general lighting.

• Higher efficacy is needed for the General Lighting Market– >150 lm/W has been proven with low-current LED operation (generally 20mA).

– Today high power LEDs have overall efficiency of 25%.

– To improve efficiency, 10 key technologies are in use or under investigation

• With continued developments, high power LEDs with 150 lm/W converting more

than 50% of input watts to light can be envisioned.

Executive summary

© 2009 • 7

LED, HB-LED, UHB-LED

Conventional LED High Brightness LED Ultra-high brightness white LED

Specifications

< 200 mW power

• 20 lm/W

• 1 to 3 lm generated

• Typical epoxy housing

• Up to 1 Watt power

•> 30 lm/W

• 5 to 30 lm generated

• Specific packaging

•up to 5 watt power

•> 50 lm/W

• > 100 lm generated

•Specific packaging

Application

markets

• Cell phone keypad

• Cell phone backlight

• Signs

• Screen backlight

• Dashboard backlight

• Large displays

• Car head-lamps

• High-End apps

• General Illumination

ASP

(> 10,000 units)$0.10 to $0.20 / part $0.80 to $2.00 / part $3.00 for 100 lm LED

LED Market

© 2009 • 8

Number of Lumens & Time to Marketfor various applications

Light source

# of lumen

< 10

1500

1000

2007 2009< 2006 2008 > 2010

100

500

Car Headlamp

General Lighting

Pocket Projector

Car Rear lamp

RPTV

Head-up display

LCD backlight

LED technologies

© 2009

LED Market

General Illumination

General Illumination Market

© 2009 • 10

Worldwide Lighting Estimates

• Various sources estimate the lighting products market at

>$70B today and approaching $100B in 2010.

• Solid State General Lighting (white LED) market estimates for

2012 range from $400 million to >$1.5 billion

• Possible LED market penetration…– Best case:

• High performance (lm/W, output power), affordable price, warm light, long

life-time, reliable electronic drivers.

– Worst case: • Limited performance, high price, poor color (CRI)

General Illumination Market

© 2009 • 11

White-LEDs for General LightingMarket estimates in $B to 2020

Sources: Yole Développement

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Best case 0.09 0.53 1.42 2.34 3.45 4.50 5.61

Most likely 0.07 0.37 0.90 1.46 2.21 2.94 3.77

Worst case 0.06 0.21 0.38 0.58 0.96 1.38 1.93

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Mar

ket s

ize

(B$)

Market for LED in General Illumination

Best case

Most likely

Worst case

General Illumination Market

© 2009 • 12

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Best case 0.03 0.21 0.54 0.87 1.25 1.68 2.04

Most likely 0.03 0.15 0.34 0.54 0.80 1.10 1.37

Worst case 0.02 0.08 0.14 0.21 0.35 0.52 0.70

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2" e

qu

iv. W

afe

r ne

ed

s fo

r G

en

era

l lig

hti

ng

(Mu

nit

s) 2" (equ.) wafer needs for general lighting in million units

Best caseMost likelyWorst case

Wafer Needs for General Lighting(2” wafer equivalents, million units to 2020)

Technical hypothesis:

• Die size is 1 mm²

• 80% processing yield

Sources: Yole Développement

General Illumination Market

© 2009 • 13

GaN-based LED for General LightingComments on market evolution

• LEDs for general lighting:– Total market 1 to 3 billion units after 2020.

• What can change this?– Unit volume will be lower if:

• Current challenges linger

• Price / Performance not competitive

• CRI > 80 is not reached

• Lamp price remains > $5 (current fluorescent price)

– Unit volume could be even greater if:

• All challenges are overcome!

• LED technology leads to illuminating new places currently in the dark (highways, streets, …)

• There is a behavior breakthrough in the way to use light (using more lighting in ways not used before)

• Lamp makers or designers implement several lower brightness LEDs in a lamp instead of a single high-brightness one.

General Illumination Market

© 2009

LED Performance

LED technologies

© 2009 • 15

Overall LED Performance Every manufacturing step influences efficacy

SubstrateLED epiwafer

LED dieDies-on-wafer

LED lamp

Epitaxy Front-End Back-End Packaging

Internal Quantum

Efficiency: ηint.Electrical losses: ηelect.

Extraction

Efficiency: ηextr.

Packaging losses: ηpack.

Phosphor conversion

Lenses

Housing

ηtotal = ηint. x ηelect. x ηextr. x ηpack.

LED technologies

© 2009 • 16

Average LED Performanceoptical output power vs. heat

The increasing of the input power

produces more lumens, but lm/W ratio

drops and so more heat is generated

Thermal management is crucial for LED

packaging

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20 mA 100 mA 350 mA 1000 mA

Heat

Optical Power

LED technologies

© 2009 • 17

Expected Performance Gains White LEDs

70%

90%

92%

90%

60%

75%

84%

60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Internal Quantum efficiency

Electrical efficiency

Extraction efficiency

Packaging efficiency

Today status

Expectations

Today status:

Global efficiency = 23%

Expectation for the future:

Global efficiency ~ 52%

LED technologies

© 2009

LED Manufacturing Costs

LED technologies

© 2009 • 19 LED technologies

Main Manufacturing StepsGaN-based LED

SubstrateEpitaxy

Buffer layer

Epitaxy

Active layers

AlN

Low T GaN

AlN/GaN sandwich

SiC

Sapphire

Silicon

Bulk GaN

Composite substrates

InGaN

LED epi-wafer

Front-End

Litho, etching, metallization…

Lateral LED structure

Vertical LED structureLED dies-on-wafer

Back-End

level 0

Back-grinding

Dicing, Flip-chip

Laser Lift-Off: LLO

Die shaping

LED dies

Back-End

level 1

Binning, Pick-and-place

Phosphor coating

Packaging, HousingPackaged LED LED lampSources: Yole Développement

© 2009 • 20

Regular LED (white)Front-End steps

1. Substrate: Wafer inspection

2. InGaN active layer + buffer Epitaxy (3 µm)

3. Litho 1: Mesa design

4. Mesa etching: Dry etch

5. Ti + Ni contact deposition (PVD)

6. Litho 2: Ti + Ni etching

7. Dry etching Ti + Ni

Regular LED

© 2009 • 21

Regular LED (white)

Back-end

1. Laser scribing + cleaving

2. Chip bonding to the cathode

3. Wire bonding x2

4. Phosphor coating

5. Epoxy-based main lens molding

Regular LED

© 2009 • 22

Regular LED (white)

Production costs for 100k wafers/year

Regular LED

Substrate6.1%

Epitaxy5.7%

Other FE1.4%

Phosphor32.0%

Other BE54.9%

Cost breakdown for 100k x 4" W/year

© 2009 • 23

HB LED (white)

Production costs for 100k wafers/year

HB LED

© 2009 • 24

Various techniques to improve

white LED efficiency

Techniques to improve

LED efficiency

New growth

substrates

Photonic

Crystals

Material Front-End PackagingBack-End

Laser Lift-Off

Temporary bonding

Flip-Chip with

reflecting

back contacts

Transparent top

contacts

Binning

Phosphors

Dicing / Scribing

Colour Flux

Vf

Surface

texturing

LED technologies

Wafer level

packaging

© 2009

LED Substrates

LED technologies

© 2009 • 26

Substrate69.8%Epitaxy

3.2%

Other FE3.1%

Phosphor4.4%

Other BE19.5%

Substrate3.0% Epitaxy

10.2%Other FE

10.0%

Phosphor14.2%

Other BE62.6%

Substrate2.6%

Epitaxy10.2%

Other FE10.1%

Phosphor14.3%

Other BE62.9%

Cost breakdown for 100k x 2" W/year

Substrate23.5%

Epitaxy8.0%

Other FE7.9%

Phosphor11.2%

Other BE49.3%

Cost breakdown for 100k x 2" W/year

LED Cost Model: Impact of Substrate Choice1 mm² packaged HB-LED on a 2” substrate

Sapphire: $0.56SiC: $0.63

Silicon: $0.50 Bulk GaN: $1.59

• Yole LED Cost Model• Manufacturing costs are

given for a 1 mm² packaged

HB-LED on a 2” substrate

• Same LED design is

applied to each case.

• FE includes litho,

deposition, etching…

• BE includes Die-shaping,

packaging, housing,

lenses…

• Comparisons done using

2008, 2” substrate price:

• Sapphire: $20

• SiC: $200

• Si: $17

• Bulk GaN: $1,500

HB LED

© 2009 • 27

LEDs Made on Various SubstratesComparison of $/klm

• Results are for 2” diameter

substrates. Diameter can

strongly impact the $/klm,

especially for Silicon.

• Vertical vs. lateral design can

disrupt this comparison. Laser

lift-off of the substrate can also

impact these values.SiC Sapphire Silicon Bulk-GaN

$/klm 7.00 6.59 7.69 7.95

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

$/k

lm

Comparison of $/klm for LED made on various 2" susbtrates

Output lm LED cost $/klm

SiC 90 $0.63 7.00

Sapphire 85 $0.56 6.59

Silicon 65 $0.50 7.69

Bulk-GaN 200 $1.59 7.95Done with YOLE LED reverse costing tool.

HB LED

© 2009 • 28 New substrates

Time-to-market for LED substrates

2006 2007 20102008 2009 2011

GaN/Sapphire

2012

GaN/SiC

Re

gu

lar

LE

DH

B-L

ED

UH

B-L

ED

GaN/SiliconGaN/Glass

GaN/AlN

GaN/Ge

GaN/B-Si/pSiC

GaN/bulk GaN

GaN/B-GaN/pAlN

GaN/Sapphire

GaN/SiC

GaN/Sapphire

GaN/SiC

GaN/ZnO

GaN/B-Si/pSiC

© 2009

Wafer Level Packaging

HB LEDs

LED technologies

© 2009 • 30

HB-LED with Silicon Carrier submount

• Silicon carrier IPDs are getting more and

more popular in HB-LED applications

• Next steps:– 3D TSV silicon carriers to get multi chip LED

modules and to increase heat extraction

– Wafer level technologies will reduce cost target:

• Wafer level Bumps / interconnects

• Wafer level Light management (phosphorous

depositions, wafer level optics…)

SEM image of the Lumileds LED die on its pedestal

silicon carrier, with lens and phosphor removed (Courtesy of MuAnalysis Inc.)

Oblique view of the LED die flip-chipped with gold bumps on

the Si carrier LED submount: no underfill were used

(Courtesy of MuAnalysis Inc.)Lumileds Luxeon K2 LED Lamp (Courtesy of MuAnalysis Inc.)

LED Die

Si carrier

LED Die

Si carrier interposer

© 2009 • 31

Silicon interposer for MEMS / LED Applications

MEMS

ASIC

Hybrid IC

Memory IC

TSV

Shinko’s 3-D Silicon carrier wafer fabrication

© 2009 • 32

Hymite: Silicon HB-LED packages

• Demonstration of HyLEDTM

Courtesy of Hymite

© 2009 • 33

Conclusions

• Market– High end focused applications continue to grow (Automotive, projection, etc)

– Breakthroughs are still needed for robust general lighting growth

• 150 lm/W at high current is threshold to launch this market

– A $1B market is expected after 2012 at the LED device level

• CREE, Nichia, Osram, Philips, and Toyoda Gosei – There is still room for upstarts to emerge, but currently patents related to

phosphor down-conversion solidify key player positions

• LED Performance, Manufacturing Technology & Materials– High power LEDs generate only 25% light versus 75% heat

– Every step of LED manufacturing is looking to improve efficiency and cost

trade-offs occur at every step

– New substrates under development (larger dia, new materials, composite)

– New packaging and test solutions coming into the picture

Conclusions