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lectures on prediction on cyclones
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7/21/2019 Lecture 21
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lecture-21-56da578c46c40 1/24
• Weather Forecasting Assignment
• For more information please see the links under
today’s date on our class webpage
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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Astrology and Horoscopes
• Astrology is the study of
how the planets and
stars affect human
affairs.
• A horoscope consists of
a geocentric map of the
solar system at a given
moment in time basedon a person’s date, time,
and place of birth.
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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Astrology and Horoscopes
• he calculations involved in constructing a horoscope
are based on geocentric models of the solar system
!i.e., earth is at the center".
• he interpretation of horoscopes is based on oral and
written wisdom passed down across generations by
respected astrologers.
• #any of the modern horoscopes that we are familiar
with are highly simplified versions based on a
person’s $odiac sign !e.g., A%uarius, &eo, 'apricorn".
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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How do these methods fare(
• How do astrological methods compare with those
discussed in this course(
• What would it take to establish the validity of an
astrological theory(
• Are these methods !or the evidence derived from
them" part of what is advertised(
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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esting Astrology
• What would it take to test astrological principles(
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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esting Astrology
• What would it take to test astrological principles(
) *ifferent astrologers drawing upon the sameframework should make similar predictions.
) he person types based on the +odiac should be
accurate !Aries high e-traversion /emini high
e-traversion, high agreeableness 0isces highopenness".
) Horoscope should be correct, within reason.
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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How accurate are horoscopes(
• Horoscope class e-ercise
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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True
AQUARIUS (Jan. 20-Feb. 18):
ension creeps into the workday, but youcan turn it around by spending %uality
time in the open air !which brings fresh
ideas your way that will make money
later in the year". onight, tell a loved
one what he or she wants to hear.
PIS!S (Feb. 1"-#arch 20):
here are two ways to get energy
moving forward in your career now. 1o.
2 Forget about who did what to whom,
and start new. 1o. 3 'all around before
you make any costly decisions. 4ou
make allies by asking for help.
Fa$se
AQUARIUS (Jan. 20-Feb. 18):
here are two ways to get energymoving forward in your career now. 1o.
2 Forget about who did what to whom,
and start new. 1o. 3 'all around before
you make any costly decisions. 4ou
make allies by asking for help.
PIS!S (Feb. 1"-#arch 20):
ension creeps into the workday, but you
can turn it around by spending %uality
time in the open air !which brings fresh
ideas your way that will make money
later in the year". onight, tell a loved
one what he or she wants to hear.
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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25 26
27 22
Valid Not Valid
True
False T y p e o f h o r o s c o p e
Validity of Horoscope
40%
44%
These two “it felt valid” rates
are fairly similar
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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• For the purposes of discussion, we’ll focus today on
the personality and health information you provided
as part of your homework for today’s class.
• We’ll e-amine whether
) !a" certain characteristics !e.g., e-traversion,
sub8ective well9being, physical health" vary as a
function of sign and
) !b" whether these characteristics vary in some of
the ways that have been hypothesi$ed by certain
astrologers.
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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:ust a reminder;
• A%uar&us 9 :anuary 32 9 February 2<
P&sces 9 February 369 #arch 36
Ar&es 9 #arch 32 9 April 36
Taurus 9 April 32 9 #ay 32
'e&n& 9 #ay 33 9 :une 32ancer 9 :une 33 9 :uly 33
eo 9 :uly 3= 9August 32
*&r+o 9 August 33 9 >eptember 3=
&bra 9 >eptember 37 9 ?ctober 3=
Scorp&o 9 ?ctober 37 9 1ovember 33
Sa+&,,ar&us 9 1ovember 3= 9 *ecember 33
apr&corn 9 *ecember 3= 9 :anuary 36• he data are based on the personality ratings provided by 2=6 students who
have participated in this e-ercise over the past few years.
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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9 3
9 2
6
2
3
@ - t r a v e r s i o n
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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9 3
9 2
6
2
3
1 e u r o t i c i s m
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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9 3
9 2
6
2
3
' o n s c i e n t i o u s n e s s
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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9 3
9 2
6
2
3
? p e n n e s s
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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9 =
9 3
9 2
6
2
3
A g r e e a b l e n e s s
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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9 =
9 3
9 2
6
2
& i f e > a t i s f a c t i o n
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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9 3
6
3
7
0 h y s i c a l H e a l t h 2
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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9 3
9 2
6
2
3
=
0 h y s i c a l H e a l t h 3
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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>pecific 0redictions
• Aries @-traverted
• aurus Agreeable
• /emini Bind of ?pen
• 'ancer Agreeable, ?pen
• &eo ?pen, *isagreeable• irgo ?pen and *isagreeable !critical thinkers"
• &ibra Cntroverted
• >corpio *isagreeable
• >agittarius ?pen and Agreeable
• 'apricorn 'onscientious
• A%uarius ?pen and Cntroverted
• 0isces Agreeable, not conscientious
• from httpDDwww.bu$$le.comDarticlesDpersonality9characteristics9of9signs9of9$odiac.html
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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Aries: Extraverted
Libra: !troverted
9 3
9 2
6
2
3
@ - t r a v e r s i o n
A%uarius Aries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign
7/21/2019 Lecture 21
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9 3
9 2
6
2
3
' o n s c i e n t i o
u s n e s s
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign
"#apricor!: #o!scie!tious
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9 3
9 2
6
2
3
? p e n n e s s
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ign$ei!i: &i!d of 'pe!
Leo: 'pe!( )isa*reeable
Vir*o: 'pe! a!d )isa*reeable +critical thi!,ers-
.a*ittarius: 'pe! a!d A*reeable
A/uarius: 'pe! a!d !troverted
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9 =
9 3
9 2
6
2
3
A g r e e a b l e n e s s
A%uariusAries 'ancer 'apricorn/emini &eo &ibra 0isces>agittarius>corpioaurus irgo
>ignTaurus: A*reeable
#a!cer: A*reeable( 'pe!
.corpio: )isa*reeable
isces: A*reeable( !ot co!scie!tious