Natural Hazard and Disaster Management in the CaribbeanLecture 1: Introduction to Natural DisastersE. J. Peters 2014

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Who are in this class?*E. J. Peters 2014

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What are the expectations?

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Natural HazardsWhat are they?

Where do they occur?

Why to do they occur?

Consequences of their occurrence?*E. J. Peters 2014

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What are Natural Hazards?A natural hazard is an uncontrollable natural event of unusual magnitude that threatens the activities of people or people themselves.

A natural disaster is a natural hazard event that actually results in widespread destruction of property or causes injury and/or death.*E. J. Peters 2014

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Types of Natural HazardsVolcanoes, floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, tsunamis, etc.can act adversely on human processescan occur:without warning (e.g. earthquakes)with warnings (precursors) (e.g. satellite monitoring of cyclone tracks, or the presence of ground deformation at a volcano before an eruption)E. J. Peters 2014*

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Natural hazardsATMOSPHERIC Hailstorms Hurricanes Lightning Tornadoes Tropical storms SEISMIC Fault ruptures Ground shaking Lateral spreading Liquefaction Tsunamis Seiches

GEOLOGIC/HYDROLOGIC Debris avalanches Expansive soils Landslides Rock falls Submarine slides Subsidence HYDROLOGIC

Coastal flooding Desertification Salinization Drought Erosion and sedimentation River flooding Storm surges

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Natural hazardsATMOSPHERIC Hailstorms Hurricanes Lightning Tornadoes Tropical storms SEISMIC Fault ruptures Ground shaking Lateral spreading Liquefaction Tsunamis Seiches

VOLCANIC Tephra (ash, cinders, lapilli) Gases Lava flows Mudflows Projectiles and lateral blasts Pyroclastic flows

WILDFIRE Brush Forest Grass Savannah

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Why should we be concerned about hazards?In every persons lifetime, at least one natural hazard will likely have some impact on their life.Hurricane David, Gilbert, Ivan, TomasMount Soufriere Numerous earth quakes in Jamaica, TrinidadTrapped by severe flooding for multiple days in GuyanaLandslides destroying life and property in Venezuela*E. J. Peters 2014

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Why should be concerned about hazards?On average, about 150,000 people are killed worldwide by natural hazards each year (~9x the population of JMU).

Globally, losses (both in terms of death and economic costs) are increasing because of the exponential increase in human population.

More people are living in areas where hazards occur more frequently and often with greater severity.*E. J. Peters 2014

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Grenada after Ivan 2004*E. J. Peters 2014

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St Vincent 2013E. J. Peters 2014*

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The Earths population is increasingmore people living in hazard-prone areaspopulations are becoming hyper-concentratedconsumption of resourcesexamples:today there are 6 billion people on Earth ( ~ 50% live in cities)by 2025, there will be ~8 billion people (~ 66% in cities)of these cities, 40% are coastalprone to severe storm and tsunami damageand a large majority lie in areas subject to other geohazards (for example volcanoes and earthquakes)Why is the human element so critical?E. J. Peters 2014*

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What are some of the hazards and disasters that face the region?

Hurricanes (All) Volcanoes (St. Vincent, Montserrat) Tidal waves / storm surges Flooding -heavy rains (Belize, TT Guyana) Earthquakes (Antigua, Trinidad) Land slides Climate Change and Sea level rise (All)Wild fires (Trinidad) *E. J. Peters 2014

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What constraints to development do we face in the Caribbean?High unemploymentPoverty (30%)Limited resourcesShifting from agriculture to tourismHigh food pricesPoor and shortage of housingPoor infrastructure

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ImpactsIn addition to direct impacts of natural hazards, such as floodwaters destroying a house, there are usually many indirect impacts, such as

people getting depressedIncrease in unemploymentMass migration

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Indirect Impacts

Often times the indirect impacts are more costly and can add years on to the recovery time from a disaster.

As people who live in communities that have been destroyed by a natural hazard will often say there is no such thing as a complete recovery, disasters will forever change our way of life.*E. J. Peters 2014

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Impacts results in costsIn many technologically advanced countries, loss of life is low but economic costs are extremely high.In less developed countries, loss of live tends to be very high while economic costs are usually lower.

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CANNOT stop the geologic processesCANNOT stop the population growth/expansionTherefore, we must try to reduce (mitigate) the hazards through:scientific studypopulation educationchanges in engineering/building practicesmanagement plans and hazard response scenariosE. J. Peters 2014*

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How do humans affect hazard processes?Human activities can increase how often a natural hazard occurs and how severe a natural hazard can become.

Examples?

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The Role of Science in Predicting HazardsHelp develop an understanding of when, where, why, and how natural hazards occur.

This is the first step in minimizing their impacts, because science informs economic, social, and political decisions.

Another important step is to design forecasting and early warning systems*E. J. Peters 2014

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Scientific PerspectiveScientists working to predict hazards many view these processes differently than the larger society.

Scientists often view these events as natural processes that play an important role in shaping and maintaining ecosystems and landforms.*E. J. Peters 2014

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Where do natural hazards occur?Everywhere at least one type of natural hazard affects every location on Earth.*E. J. Peters 2014

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How do Scientists Learn about Natural Hazards?Class discussion*E. J. Peters 2014

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Steps in the Scientific MethodObservation and description of a natural phenomenon.

Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. Often this takes on the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation.

Performance of experiments or observational studies to test the predictions set forth by the hypothesis.*E. J. Peters 2014

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What is a hypothesis?A hypothesis is a tentative statement that proposes a possible explanation to some phenomenon or event.

The key word here is testable and not simply a prediction.

From this statement a scientist can perform a test of how two variables might be related.*E. J. Peters 2014

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An ExampleStep 1: ObservationThe 2005 hurricane season was the most expensive on record (~$118 billion damage).It was also associated with very high sea surface temperatures, believed to be associated with global warming. How are these two factors related?*E. J. Peters 2014

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What then should be the objectives of Natural Hazard and disaster management in the Caribbean?Minimizing the impact of the hazardsMaximizing the developmentThe course is about all of what we have discussed with the relevant context.

In the next lecture we would talk a little about Natural hazards and disaster management

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ReadingPrimer on Natural Hazard Management in Integrated Regional Development Planninghttp://oas.org/dsd/publications/Unit/oea66e/begin.htm#ContentsNatural Hazards and Economic Development: Policy ConsiderationsOrganization of American StatesGeneral SecretariatUnit for Sustainable Development and Environmenthttp://www.oas.org/cdmp/document/econpoly.htm

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*****There are many types of natural events that can impact human processes:Volcanoes, floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, tsunamis, (Presenter: Can the students think of any more examples?) landslides, avalanches, forest fires..?

These events can occur either without warning, for example an earthquake.Or they may occur with warning, for example you can monitor with satellites when and where a cyclone will hit the coastline. Also, some volcanoes change their behaviour before an eruption, the sides of the volcano may swell and crack as hot molten rock is pushed up towards the surface.These warnings are called precursors. Precursors are what scientists look out for when trying to forecast a future event.**JMU = 17k**Why is the human element so critical, or, why is it becoming more important to understand these events?

The Earths population is increasing and therefore, as existing cities etc become full and people search for new space to live in, more and more enter into areas that are prone to hazards.For example, today around 50% of the 6 billion inhabitants on Earth live in cities. Current trends suggest that by 2025 there will be 8 billion people on Earth and 66% of them will be living in cities.Of all the cities, 40% of them lie on the coast and therefore are prone to severe storm and tsunami damage.

There are many other examples: the sides of volcanoes have very fertile soils, so farmers plant their crops or graze their livestock closer and closer to the volcanic vent in order to increase their revenuePeople build houses further up into mountains in areas where landslides occur.*******We need to remember that we can not stop the geologic process (you cant stop a volcano from erupting, or a cyclone from forming), we also can not stop the population from growing.We can only attempt to reduce the hazard to life and property.

To combat the increasing risk we need more studies to attempt to understand and help forecast future events. We need to be able to monitor the hazardous systems (e.g. volcano monitoring, meteorological/weather monitoring) and to be able to quickly communicate the information from the scientists to the general population.

All of this helps with the aim to MITIGATE (reduce) the effect of the natural hazards.*Loss of coastal wetlands leads to increased hurricane and tsunami damage; filling of wetlands leads to increased earthquake damage.********