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1 Week 24 June 09 - June 15, 2014 JUNE 09 - JUNE 15, 2014 WEEK 24 Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected] CONTACTS RESEARCH Treasury & Capital Markets Micky Chebli (961-1) 977419 [email protected] Nadine Akkawi (961-1) 977401 [email protected] Bechara Serhal (961-1) 977421 [email protected] Private Banking Toufic Aouad (961-1) 329328 toufi[email protected] Corporate Banking Khalil Debs (961-1) 977229 [email protected] Marwan Barakat (961-1) 977409 [email protected] Jamil Naayem (961-1) 977406 [email protected] Salma Saad Baba (961-1) 977346 [email protected] Fadi Kanso (961-1) 977470 [email protected] Sarah Borgi (961-1) 964763 [email protected] Gerard Arabian (961-1) 964047 [email protected] Nivine Turyaki (961-1) 959615 [email protected] LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK OF JUNE 09 - JUNE 15, 2014 The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR Economy ___________________________________________________________________________ p.2 DRAFT 2014 BUDGET PUTS PUBLIC FINANCE DEFICIT AT 10.7% OF GDP The Ministry of Finance has just finalized the 2014 draft budget, which it submitted to the Council of Ministers for discussion, entailing a public finance deficit of 10.7% of GDP. Also in this issue p.3 EIB lends the banking sector US$ 164 million to boost SMEs in Lebanon p.3 Internet infrastructure upgrade to be effective as of July p.4 Value of Kafalat guarantees up by 6.0% in the first five months of 2014 Surveys ___________________________________________________________________________ p.5 LEBANON’S POTENTIAL GDP GROWTH AT 4% IN A BENIGN ENVIRONMENT, AS PER S&P Standard and Poors (S&P) has published an update supplementing a previous affirmation of Lebanon’s sovereign rating at B-/stable/B. Also in this issue p.6 Lebanon retains its global rank in the World’s Freedom of the Press Corporate News ___________________________________________________________________________ p.7 FRANSABANK’S TOTAL ASSETS UP BY A YEARLY 2.1% TO US$ 17.4 BILLION AT END-MARCH 2014 Fransabank’s consolidated net profits amounted to US$ 33.7 million in the first quarter of 2014, down by 14.1% from US$ 39.2 million in the same period of last year, according to Bankdata Financial Services. Also in this issue p.8 Crédit Libanais’ net profits down by a yearly 3.5% to US$ 15.6 million in the first quarter of 2014 Markets In Brief ___________________________________________________________________________ p.9 CENTRAL BANK’S FOREIGN ASSETS AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS Lebanese capital markets continued to witness a foreign demand on the Eurobond market, a rise in prices on the equity market and a balanced activity on the FX market. In details, the foreign appetite for Lebanese debt papers persisted during this week given the attractiveness of Lebanese debt papers as compared to other papers in the region and in other emerging markets and as Lebanon’s weighting in JP Morgan indices has been lifted recently. The average spread contracted further by 9 bps to 309 bps and Lebanon’s five-year CDS spread shrank by 6 bps to 334 bps, its lowest level in 3 years. At the level of the equity market, the total trading value amounted to US$ 4.5 million, below the average weekly trading value of US$ 7.9 million since the beginning of the year 2014, while the price index increased by 1% week-on-week. On the FX market, the commercial demand for the US Dollar was adequately met by offer, while the LP/US$ interbank rate ranged between LP 1,511 and LP 1,514. It is worth recalling that the BDL’s foreign assets reached US$ 36.4 billion at end-May 2014, which is formed of prime liquid placements at international banks, as the Central Bank has been able to sell the bulk of its sovereign Eurobond holdings.

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Page 1: Lebanon Weekly Monitor (24) 16-06-2014images.mofcom.gov.cn/lb/201406/20140624175042614.pdf · from the current fragmented approach to fiscal policymaking—as shown by the proposal

1Week 24 June 09 - June 15, 2014

JUNE 09 - JUNE 15, 2014

WEEK 24

Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected]

CONTACTS

RESEARCH

Treasury & Capital Markets

Micky Chebli

(961-1) 977419

[email protected]

Nadine Akkawi

(961-1) 977401

[email protected]

Bechara Serhal

(961-1) 977421

[email protected]

Private Banking

Toufic Aouad

(961-1) 329328

[email protected]

Corporate Banking

Khalil Debs

(961-1) 977229

[email protected]

Marwan Barakat

(961-1) 977409

[email protected]

Jamil Naayem

(961-1) 977406

[email protected]

Salma Saad Baba

(961-1) 977346

[email protected]

Fadi Kanso

(961-1) 977470

[email protected]

Sarah Borgi

(961-1) 964763

[email protected]

Gerard Arabian

(961-1) 964047

[email protected]

Nivine Turyaki

(961-1) 959615

[email protected]

LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK OF JUNE 09 - JUNE 15, 2014

The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR

Economy___________________________________________________________________________

p.2 DRAFT 2014 BUDGET PUTS PUBLIC FINANCE DEFICIT AT 10.7% OF GDP The Ministry of Finance has just finalized the 2014 draft budget, which it submitted to the Council of

Ministers for discussion, entailing a public finance deficit of 10.7% of GDP.

Also in this issuep.3 EIB lends the banking sector US$ 164 million to boost SMEs in Lebanon

p.3 Internet infrastructure upgrade to be effective as of July

p.4 Value of Kafalat guarantees up by 6.0% in the first five months of 2014

Surveys___________________________________________________________________________

p.5 LEBANON’S POTENTIAL GDP GROWTH AT 4% IN A BENIGN ENVIRONMENT, AS

PER S&P Standard and Poors (S&P) has published an update supplementing a previous affirmation of Lebanon’s

sovereign rating at B-/stable/B.

Also in this issuep.6 Lebanon retains its global rank in the World’s Freedom of the Press

Corporate News___________________________________________________________________________

p.7 FRANSABANK’S TOTAL ASSETS UP BY A YEARLY 2.1% TO US$ 17.4 BILLION AT

END-MARCH 2014 Fransabank’s consolidated net profits amounted to US$ 33.7 million in the first quarter of 2014,

down by 14.1% from US$ 39.2 million in the same period of last year, according to Bankdata Financial

Services.

Also in this issuep.8 Crédit Libanais’ net profits down by a yearly 3.5% to US$ 15.6 million in the first quarter of 2014

Markets In Brief___________________________________________________________________________

p.9 CENTRAL BANK’S FOREIGN ASSETS AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS Lebanese capital markets continued to witness a foreign demand on the Eurobond market, a rise in

prices on the equity market and a balanced activity on the FX market. In details, the foreign appetite

for Lebanese debt papers persisted during this week given the attractiveness of Lebanese debt papers

as compared to other papers in the region and in other emerging markets and as Lebanon’s weighting

in JP Morgan indices has been lifted recently. The average spread contracted further by 9 bps to 309

bps and Lebanon’s five-year CDS spread shrank by 6 bps to 334 bps, its lowest level in 3 years. At the

level of the equity market, the total trading value amounted to US$ 4.5 million, below the average

weekly trading value of US$ 7.9 million since the beginning of the year 2014, while the price index

increased by 1% week-on-week. On the FX market, the commercial demand for the US Dollar was

adequately met by offer, while the LP/US$ interbank rate ranged between LP 1,511 and LP 1,514. It

is worth recalling that the BDL’s foreign assets reached US$ 36.4 billion at end-May 2014, which is

formed of prime liquid placements at international banks, as the Central Bank has been able to sell the

bulk of its sovereign Eurobond holdings.

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ECONOMY______________________________________________________________________________

DRAFT 2014 BUDGET PUTS PUBLIC FINANCE DEFICIT AT 10.7% OF GDP

The Ministry of Finance has just finalized the 2014 draft budget, which it submitted to the Council of

Ministers for discussion. The draft budget entails a projected public finance deficit at 10.7% of GDP for

2014, compared to an actual deficit of 9.5% of GDP in 2013. The draft law which still needs to be approved

by the cabinet and then endorsed by the parliament for it to become effective, would be, if ratified, the

first budget law to be applied in nine years since 2005.

According to the 2014 draft budget, the public finance deficit is expected to reach US$ 5.09 billion

compared to US$ 4.22 billion registered in 2013, an increase of 20.6%. Accordingly, the deficit to GDP ratio

would increase by 1.2%, from 9.5% in 2013 to 10.7% of GDP in 2014. The ratio of deficit to expenditures,

on the other hand, is expected to rise to 34.9% in 2014, up from 30.9% in 2013.

In details, public finance expenditures are expected to increase by 6.6%, from US$ 13.64 billion spent

in 2013 to US$ 14.55 billion budgeted for 2014. Wages are expected to account for circa 37% of

expenditures, at US$ 5.39 billion, against US$ 4.29 billion in 2013. The rise is mainly due to new hiring

and the consequent related expenditures. As to debt service, it is expected to account for around 27% of

public finance expenditures. It is estimated at US$ 3.91 billion for the year 2014, up from US$ 3.79 billion

in 2013. Moreover, an amount of US$ 2.03 billion has been accounted for EDL, equivalent to the amount

spent in 2013. It is worth noting that this account will be considered the ceiling for amounts transferred

as credit from the treasury to EDL.

Overall, current expenditures are estimated at US$ 13.12 billion in 2014, at 90.2% of total expenditures.

Current expenditures are up by 10.1% from US$ 11.92 billion spent in 2013. Capital expenditures, on the

other hand, accounted for 9.8% of the planned expenditures for 2014, at US$ 1.42 billion.

As to public finance revenues, they are estimated at US$ 9.46 billion, up from US$ 9.42 billion received

in 2013, a slight increase of 0.4%. Tax revenues are estimated at US$ 7.18 billion, compared to US$ 6.71

billion collected in 2013. Non-tax revenues have been estimated at US$ 2.28 billion, compared to US$

2.17 billion in 2013. The relative stagnation in public revenues is tied to the sluggish performance of the

Lebanese economy in general.

PUBLIC FINANCE INDICATORS

Source: Ministry of Finance

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According to the concluding statement of the IMF Article IV Consultation mission report issued last

month, passing a budget for 2014 is a necessary and credible initial step to anchor fiscal policy. A sound

budget—covering all government expenditure and revenue plans—would crystallize the government’s

policy intentions and restore credibility in fiscal policy. As per the IMF, there is a need to move away

from the current fragmented approach to fiscal policymaking—as shown by the proposal on the salary

scale adjustment for the public sector—and consider fiscal measures in the context of a comprehensive

budgetary framework.

Among IMF recommendations, electricity tariffs—unchanged since 1996, when global fuel prices were a

fraction of current levels—should be gradually increased to cost-recovery levels while protecting lower-

tier consumers. According to the Fund, a comprehensive revenue package could include the introduction

of a capital gains tax on real estate transactions; an increase in the withholding tax on interest income; a

rise in the corporate income tax rate; the immediate removal of the VAT exemption on gasoline, followed

later on by a gradual increase in the overall VAT rate across the board, as multiple VAT rates should be

avoided.

The IMF believes that improvements in fiscal management should complement the proposed measures.

There is scope for more transparency of government spending and its funding. There is also scope to

broaden tax bases, particularly for the VAT and income taxes, strengthen revenue administration, and

reduce tax evasion at large.

_____________________________________________________________________________EIB LENDS THE BANKING SECTOR US$ 164 MILLION TO BOOST SMES IN LEBANON

The European Investment Bank (EIB) has recently signed four loans worth US$ 163.7 million to be

extended to Lebanese banks with the target of boosting SMEs in the country.

According to the EIB, the Lebanese financial sector and the Lebanese economy in general present good

investment opportunities.

Byblos Bank and Fransabank each received loans worth US$ 60.93 million from the the EIB. The First

National Bank of Lebanon will receive an equity injection of US$ 14.89 million from the EIB in the form of

preferred shares, and the private equity fund Euromena III will receive US$ 27.08 million.

Based on experience, the EIB had consciously decided against stipulating which sectors should benefit

from the loans. Few years ago, the EIB decided to emphasize the hospitality sector because it believes in

the importance of the tourism industry. The EIB insists that the loan recipients practice good governance

and ensure that they adhere strictly to international standards.

In EIB’s view, for the time being, there is a need for the SMEs to be supported because there is lot of

uncertainties in the market. At the same time, the EIB was encouraged by how Lebanese SMEs had

weathered the economic crisis and regional instability without disruption. Also, the EIB cited how its

clients in Lebanon, both private banks and the Lebanese government, had repaid their loans on time.

According to the EIB, this reflects the fact that Lebanese banks and the Central Bank know how crucial

the financial credibility is for Lebanon.

_____________________________________________________________________________INTERNET INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADE TO BE EFFECTIVE AS OF JULY

According to the Telecoms Ministry, Lebanon’s Internet service providers will have successfully completed

the necessary upgrades to their infrastructure by the end of June.

This would enable them to boost the speed and quota for their existing customers as per the new

data plans designed by the ministry. As of July 1st, the entry level DSL plan, still priced at US$ 16, will

be upgraded to 2 Mbps with a 40 gigabyte cap, compared with the previous 1 Mbps and 4 gigabytes

of data. For US$ 50, subscribers will get the 2 Mbps with an unlimited download plan compared to a

previous cap of 20 gigabytes. The 4 Mbps plan will see its price drop to US$33, from US$50, and have

its usage increased to 50 gigabytes, from 25 gigabytes. The 6-8 Mbps plan will now cost US$ 43 and

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include 60 gigabytes of data. The charge for exceeding the data limit on each plan will now be US$ 1.3

per gigabyte, down from the current US$ 4.

By June 20, providers will have completed all the necessary technical upgrades to upgrade the data plans

of all their subscribers. They are currently in the final phase of upgrading their switch nodes, routers and

servers along with other related technical improvements to their infrastructure to secure the required

increase in connection speed.

The ministry has also sent a request to Ogero asking it to carry out the necessary upgrades before July 1st

so that subscribers can actually enjoy the promised improvement in connection. Besides managing the

upgrades at services points, Ogero needs to increase the capacity for internets service providers.

It is worth noting that the average internet speed in Lebanon currently stands at 2.5 Mbps, according to

the international Household Download Index by U.S. broadband tester Ookla, which ranks the country

174th internationally.

____________________________________________________________________________VALUE OF KAFALAT GUARANTEES UP BY 6.0% IN THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF 2014

Figures released by the Kafalat Corporation indicate that loans extended to small and medium sized

companies under the guarantee of Kafalat totaled US$ 44.7 million in the first five months of 2014, up by

6.0% from the year before. Meanwhile, the aggregate number of guarantees amounted to 356 in the first

five months of the year, up by 15.2% from 309 guarantees given in the same period of 2013.

Agriculture and industry captured the lion’s share when it comes to the number of extended guarantees

in the first five months of 2014, with 181 (or 50.8% of the total number of guarantees) and 121 guarantees

(or 34.0% of the total), respectively. Tourism came in next with 32 guarantees (9.0%), followed by

handicrafts with 12 guarantees (3.4%), and by specialized technologies with 10 guarantees (2.8%).

As for the distribution of guarantees by area, Mount Lebanon accounted for the biggest share of given

guarantees, with 151 guarantees (42.4%), followed by the Bekaa with 73 guarantees (20.5%), Nabattieh

with 39 guarantees (11.0%), the North with 38 guarantees (10.7%), the South with 36 guarantees (10.1%),

and Beirut with 12 guarantees (5.3%).

BREAKDOWN OF KAFALAT GUARANTEES

Sources: Kafalat, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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SURVEYS_____________________________________________________________________________LEBANON’S POTENTIAL GDP GROWTH AT 4% IN A BENIGN ENVIRONMENT, AS PER S&P

Standard and Poors (S&P) has published an update supplementing a previous affirmation of Lebanon’s

sovereign rating at B-/stable/B. According to the update, the Lebanese economy is expected to grow at

1.5% in 2014, whereas a potential growth rate of 4.0% could have been achieved in a benign domestic

and external political environment.

The potential for upside to the base in S&P’s scenario is in the case where the external security environment

stabilizes or of smooth elections this year boosts investor and consumer confidence. Meanwhile, the

regional environment continues to weigh heavily on Lebanon’s growth prospects, depressing its service-

driven economy which is highly sensitive to swings in consumer and business confidence.

S&P estimates Lebanon’s GDP per capita at under US$ 10,000 for 2014. Real GDP per capita growth is

forecasted to average 0.8% annually in the period between 2014 and 2017, compared with 7.2% between

the years 2007 and 2010.

The update cites the drop in tourists’ arrivals at 7% in 2013, following another drop of 17% in 2012. S&P

also mentions the electricity sector which it considers both a drain on fiscal resources, with subsidies

to EDL at over 4% of GDP, and long-standing barrier to sustainable growth. The installed generating

capacity is at its peak covering only about 60% of demand. According to the World Bank, the increase in

demand caused by the influx of refugees is adding stress to an already weak system.

LEBANON EXTERNAL INDICATORS

Sources: S&P

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_____________________________________________________________________________

LEBANON RETAINS ITS GLOBAL RANK IN THE WORLD’S FREEDOM OF THE PRESS

Freedom House issued its latest report on the World’s Freedom of the Press in which Lebanon’s global

rank remained the same as the one of 2013 at the 112th position globally.

The 2014 index, which provides analytical reports and numerical ratings for 197 countries and territories,

continues a process conducted since 1980 by Freedom House. The findings are widely used by

governments and donor agencies, international organizations, academics, activists, and the news media.

Countries are given a total press freedom score from 0 (best) to 100 (worst) on the basis of a set of 23

methodology questions divided into three subcategories, and are also given a category designation of

“Free,” “Partly Free,” or “Not Free".

Lebanon received again a score of 53 which places it amongst countries with a "partly free" press.

Lebanon’s score was equal to that of Tunisia and Moldova. It was outperformed by Seychelles, Niger, and

Nicaragua while it ranked right ahead of Fiji, Columbia, and Bangladesh. Regionally, Lebanon came first

along with Tunisia while it surpassed Kuwait, Algeria, and Libya.

RANKING OF MENA COUNTRIES IN 2014 FREEDOM OF THE PRESS

Sources: Freedom House, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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CORPORATE NEWS_____________________________________________________________________________

FRANSABANK’S TOTAL ASSETS UP BY A YEARLY 2.1% TO US$ 17.4 BILLION AT END-

MARCH 2014

Fransabank’s consolidated net profits amounted to US$ 33.7 million in the first quarter of 2014, down by

14.1% from US$ 39.2 million in the same period of last year, according to Bankdata Financial Services. It

is worth noting that net provisions for credit losses reached US$ 10.9 million in the first quarter of 2014,

against US$ 5.9 million a year earlier.

Net interest income rose by 13.0% annually from US$ 79.0 million in the first quarter of 2013 to US$

89.3 million in the same period of this year, while net fee and commission income declined by 8.3%

year-on-year to attain US$ 12.8 million in the aforementioned period of 2014. Subsequently, total

operating income amounted to US$ 112.2 million in the first quarter of 2014, almost unchanged from

the corresponding quarter of 2013.

Total operating expenses increased by 8.3% annually, from US$ 57.7 million in the first three months of

2013 to US$ 62.5 million in the first three months of 2014, of which staff expenses amounting to US$ 38.6

million, up by 3.8% year-on-year, and administrative and other operating expenses totaling US$ 19.7

million, up by a yearly 19.3%.

The bank's cost-to-income ratio rose from 51.2% in the first quarter of 2013 to 54.3% in the same period

of this year.

Total assets stood at US$ 17.4 billion at end-March 2014, up by 2.1% from US$ 17.0 billion at end-2013.

Loans to customers went up by 1.6% from US$ 5.3 billion at end-2013 to US$ 5.4 billion at end-March

2014.

Customer deposits amounted to US$ 14.2 billion at end-March 2014, up by 0.7% from US$ 14.1 billion at

end-2013. Shareholders’ equity totaled US$ 1,685 million at end-March 2014, against US$ 1,652 million

at end-2013.

The bank's return on average assets ratio stood at 0.78% in the first quarter of 2014, versus 0.98% a year

earlier. Its return on average equity ratio reached 7.83% in the first quarter of 2014, against 10.01% a year

earlier.

FRANSABANK'S MAJOR FINANCIAL AGGREGATES (US$ BILLION)

Sources: Bankdata Financial Services, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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_____________________________________________________________________________

CRÉDIT LIBANAIS’ NET PROFITS DOWN BY A YEARLY 3.5% TO US$ 15.6 MILLION IN THE

FIRST QUARTER OF 2014

Crédit Libanais posted net profits of US$ 15.6 million in the first quarter of 2014, down by 3.5% from US$

16.2 million in the same period of 2013, according to Bankdata Financial Services.

Net interest income amounted to US$ 33.4 million in the aforementioned period of 2014, up by 12.5%

from US$ 29.7 million recorded in the first quarter of 2013. Net fee and commission income increased

from US$ 8.7 million in the first three months of 2013 to US$ 9.3 million in the same period of 2014.

Net operating income attained US$ 45.0 million in the first quarter of 2014, up by 2.2% from the

corresponding period of last year. Total operating expenses increased by 6.1% year-on-year to US$ 27.3

million in the first quarter of 2014, of which staff expenses reaching US$ 16.0 million, 4.8% higher than

those reported in the same period of 2013, and administrative and other operating expenses reaching

US$ 9.6 million, 10.5% higher than those during the same period of 2013.

Crédit Libanais’ cost-to-income ratio increased from 57.3% in the first quarter of 2013 to 58.9% in the

corresponding period of 2014.

Credit Libanais’ assets totaled US$ 8.6 billion at end-March 2014, up by 2.3% from end-2013. Net loans

and advances stood at US$ 2.7 billion at end-March 2014, up from US$ 2.6 billion at end-2013. The bank’s

gross doubtful loans to gross loans ratio moved down from 3.42% at end-2013 to 3.31% at end-March

2014. The loan loss reserves to doubtful loans ratio inched up slightly, moving from 70.0% at end-2013 to

71.7% at end-March 2014.

Customers’ deposits amounted to US$ 7.3 billion at end-March 2014, up by 1.9% from the total recorded

at end-2013. Shareholders’ equity totaled US$ 701.3 million at end-March 2014, up from US$ 686.4 million

at end-2013.

Crédit Libanais’ return on average assets ratio declined from 0.81% in the first quarter of 2013 to 0.74% in

the same period of 2014. Its return on average equity ratio was also down from 11.32% in the first quarter

of 2013 to 8.71% in the same period of 2014.

NET PROFITS (US$ MILLION)

Sources: Bankdata Financial Services, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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CAPITAL MARKETS_____________________________________________________________________________

MONEY MARKET: MONEY SUPPLY (M4) EXPANDS BY LP 647 BILLION WEEK-ON-WEEK

The overnight rate rose to 5% over the first three days of the week, due to technical reasons related to

the CNSS’ renewal of its time deposits. Yet, the said rate slipped back to its low official level of 2.75% set

by the Central Bank of Lebanon towards the end of the week, with the return of abundant local currency

liquidity to the market. As to Certificates of Deposits, the Central Bank of Lebanon sold this week LP

2 billion in the 60-day category. Accordingly, total subscriptions since the beginning of the year 2014

reached LP 141 billion and were distributed as follows: LP 86 billion in the 45-day category and LP 55

billion in the 60-day category. Interest rates on the 45-day and 60-day categories remained unchanged

at 3.57% and 3.85% respectively.

At the monetary aggregates level, figures for the week ending 29th of May 2014 released this week

showed a rise in local currency deposits of LP 519 billion, as a result of an increase of LP 201 billion in LP

time deposits and a growth of LP 318 billion in LP demand deposits week-on-week. Deposits in foreign

currencies increased by US$ 74 million. These weekly variations compare to an average weekly rise of LP

65 billion for LP deposits, and an average weekly growth of US$ 76 million for foreign currency deposits

since the beginning of the year 2014. Total money supply in its large sense (M4) expanded by LP 647

billion. This compared to an average weekly growth of LP 221 billion since the beginning of the year 2014.

On a cumulative basis, money supply in its large sense (M4) widened by LP 5,481 billion since the

beginning of the year 2014. This is the result of a rise in local currency denominated time deposits of

LP 1,862 billion, an increase in foreign currency deposits of LP 2,801 billion (the equivalent of US$ 1,858

million), a contraction in money supply (M1) of LP 281 billion, and a growth in Treasury bills held by the

public of LP 1,100 billion.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TREASURY BILLS MARKET: CONTINUOUS FOREIGN APPETITE FOR SHORT-TERM

PAPERS

Foreigners continued to rollover their maturing papers on the primary Treasury bills market and to inject

fresh money in relatively low volumes to subscribe in short-term papers. The latest auction’s results (June

12, 2014) showed that the average yields on the one-year, two-year and three-year categories remained

stable at 5.35%, 5.84% and 6.50% respectively. Also, the auction results for value date 5th of June 2014

released by the Central Bank of Lebanon showed that total subscriptions amounted to LP 184 billion

and were distributed as follows: LP 62 billion in the three-month category, LP 44 billion in the six-month

category, and LP 78 billion in the five-year category. These compare to maturities of LP 57 billion, resulting

in a nominal surplus of LP 127 billion.

INTEREST RATES

Source: Bloomberg

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TREASURY BILLS

Sources: Central Bank of Lebanon, Bloomberg

_____________________________________________________________________________

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: BALANCED ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REIGN OVER

The foreign exchange market maintained its balanced activity during this week. In fact, the commercial

demand for the US Dollar was adequately met by offer. Within this context, commercial banks traded the

green currency at a rate hovering between LP 1,511 and LP 1,514 versus LP 1,509-LP 1,514 in the previous

week. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Lebanon remained on the sidelines throughout the week.

EXCHANGE RATES

Source: Bank Audi’s Group Research Department

_____________________________________________________________________________

STOCK MARKET: 1% RISE IN BSE PRICE INDEX

Activity was relatively weak on the Beirut Stock Exchange during this week. The total trading value was

limited to US$ 4.5 million versus US$ 10.1 million and an average weekly trading value of US$ 7.9 million

since the beginning of the year 2014. The average daily trading value fell from US$ 2,021 thousand last

week to US$ 896 thousand this week, which resulted into a 55.6% drop in the trading volume index

to reach 38.83. The total number of traded shares decreased from 975,554 shares last week to 483,212

shares this week. As far as prices are concerned, the BSE price index went up by 1.0% to 111.28.

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11Week 24 June 09 - June 15, 2014

JUNE 09 - JUNE 15, 2014

WEEK 24

EUROBONDS INDICATORS

Source: Bank Audi’s Group Research Department

AUDI INDICES FOR BSE

Sources: Beirut Stock Exchange, Bank Audi’s Group Research Department

Banking shares captured 77.24% of the total trading value. Bank Audi’s “listed” share price surged by

5.4% to US$ 6.43. Bank Audi GDR’s price closed 0.6% higher at US$ 6.60. BLOM’s “listed” share price stood

unchanged at US$ 8.80. BLOM’s GDR price rose by 1.4% to close at US$ 9.40. Byblos Bank’s “listed” share

price closed 1.3% higher at US$ 1.60. Solidere shares accounted for 21.5% of total activity. Solidere “A”

share price edged up by 0.4% to US$ 13.55 and Solidere “B” share price went up by 1.2% to US$ 13.63.

The Beirut Stock Exchange’s weekly performance compared to a 1.0% decline in broader Arabian markets’

share prices (as per S&P Pan-Arab Composite Index) and a 0.3% increase in broader emerging markets’

share prices (as per S&P Emerging Frontier Super Composite Index).

_____________________________________________________________________________

BOND MARKET: FURTHER CONTRACTION IN SPREADS

The Eurobond market continued to attract a foreign interest during this week, given the attractiveness

of Lebanese debt papers as compared to other papers in the region and in other emerging markets and

as Lebanon’s weighting in JP Morgan indices has been lifted recently. Papers maturing in October 2022

attracted a decent international bid. This was met by some local and foreign offer. Also, papers maturing

in November 2026 were in foreign investor’s radar screens, noting that the international demand has

been adequately absorbed by a local offer. In parallel, papers maturing in November 2027 were locally

traded.

Within this context, the weighted average bond yield declined by 2 bps to 4.65%, and the average spread

contracted by 9 bps to 309 bps amidst a tiny decline in Lebanese yields and an increase in international

benchmark yields. For instance, the five-year US Treasury yield rose from 1.62% last week to 1.67% this

week. As to the cost of insuring debt, Lebanon’s five-year CDS spread continued to hover between 320

bps and 340 bps during this week.

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12Week 24 June 09 - June 15, 2014

JUNE 09 - JUNE 15, 2014

WEEK 24

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INDICATORS

Sources: Bloomberg, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

___________________________________________________________________________DISCLAIMER

The content of this publication is provided as general information only and should not be taken as an

advice to invest or engage in any form of financial or commercial activity. Any action that you may take

as a result of information in this publication remains your sole responsibility. None of the materials

herein constitute offers or solicitations to purchase or sell securities, your investment decisions should

not be made based upon the information herein.

Although Bank Audi Sal considers the content of this publication reliable, it shall have no liability for

its content and makes no warranty, representation or guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness.