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Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons,Inc
Primary Data Collection:
Experimentation
CHAPTER
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Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Learning Objectives
1. To understand the nature of experiments.
2. To gain insight into requirements for proving causation.
3. To learn about the experimental setting.
4. To examine experimental validity.
5. To learn the limitations of experimentation in marketing research.
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Learning Objectives
6. To compare types of experimental designs.
7. To gain insight into test marketing.
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
An Experiment:
The researcher changes an explanatory, independent, or experimental variable to observe changes in the dependent variable.
To understand the nature of experiments.What is an Experiment?
Dependent variable
Experimental variable
total salesmarketing mix
advertising market share
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Causal Research:
The only types of research that has the potential to demonstrate that a change in one variable causes some predictable change in another variable
To Demonstrate Causation:
- Concomitant Variation (Correlation
- Appropriate Time Order Of Occurrence
- Elimination Of Other Possible Causal Factors
Demonstrating Causation To understand the nature of experiments.
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Scientific Definition—Causation and Causality
1. X is only one of a number of determining conditions that caused the observed change in Y.
2. X can be a cause of Y if the presence of X makes the occurrence of Y more probable or likely
3. One can never definitively prove that X is a cause of Y but only infer that a relationship exists
4. Causal relationships are always inferred and never demonstrated conclusively beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Demonstrating Causation To understand the nature of experiments.
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Concomitant Variation:
A predictable statistical relationship between two variables
Appropriate Time Order of Occurrence:
A change in an independent variable must occur before a change in the dependent variable
Elimination of Other Possible Causal Factors
The change in B was not caused by some factor other than A
Demonstrating Causation To understand the nature of experiments.
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Laboratory experiments:
Conducted in a controlled setting.
Advantages of laboratory experiments:
•Ability to control all variables
•Greater internal validity
Disadvantages of laboratory experiments:
•External validity
Field experiments:
Tests conducted outside the laboratory
The Experimental Setting:Laboratory or Field
To learn about the experimental setting.
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Internal and External Validity
Internal Validity:
The extent to which competing explanations can be ruled out.
External Validity:
The extent to which causal relationships can be generalized to outside persons, settings, and times.
Experimental Notation:
X indicates exposure
O for observation
O1 X O2 for time periods
To examine experimental validity.Experimental Validity
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Extraneous Variables: Threats to Experimental Validity
• History
• Maturation
• Instrument Variation
• Selection Bias
• Mortality
• Testing Effect
• Regression to the Mean
To examine experimental validity.Experimental Validity
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Confounding Variables—extraneous causal factors because they confound the treatment condition
Four Basic Approaches to Control Extraneous Factors
1. Randomization
2. Physical Control
3. Design Control
4. Statistical Control
To learn about the experimental setting
Controlling Extraneous Variables
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Experimental Design
Ex Post Facto Research—nonexperimental designs
Factors of the Experimental Design:
Researcher has control of variables and manipulates them.
1. Treatment
2. Subjects
3. Dependent variable
4. Plan for extraneous causal factors
To learn about experimental settingExperimental Design,
Treatment, and Effects
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Treatment Variable
-Independent variable that is manipulated
Experimental Groups
1. Control Group—the group in which the independent variable is not changed during the course of the experiment
2. Test Group—the group that is exposed to manipulation (change) of the independent variable
Experimental EffectsThe effect of the treatment variable on the dependent variable
To learn about experimental setting.Experimental Design,
Treatment, and Effects
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The High Cost of Experiments
• Time
• Money
Security Issues
• exposing to the actual marketplace
• competitors
Implementation Problems
• cooperation
• contamination
• lack of control group
To learn the limitations of experimentation in marketing research.
Limitations of Experimental Research
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Three Pre-experimental Designs
• One-Shot Case Study—pre-experimental design with no pretest observations, no control groups, and an aftermeasurement only
• No pretest observations
• No control group of test units
•Lacks internal validity
• One-Group Pretest-Posttest Design—pre- and postmeasurements but no control
• Static-Group Comparison Design—pre-experinmental
To compare experimental designs.Selected Experimental
Designs
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Three Pre-experimental Designs (cont’d)
• One-Group Pretest-Posttest Design—pre- and postmeasurements but no control group
• History
• Maturation
• Only one pretest observation
• Static-Group Comparison Design—pre-experinmental
• Absence of pretests
• Not assigned to the groups randomly
To compare experimental designs.Selected Experimental
Designs
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
True Experimental Designs
• Before and After with Control Group Design
• Mortality
• History
• Solomon Four-Group Design
•Second experimental group no pretest
•Second control group only posttest measurement
• After-Only with Control Group
To compare experimental designs.Selected Experimental
Designs
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Quasi-Experiments
Developed to deal with external validity
Researcher lacks complete over the scheduling of treatment or must assign treatment in a nonrandom manner.
Interrupted Time-Series Designs
• The treatment interrupts repeated measurements.
• Cannot control history
Multiple Time-Series Designs
• An interrupted time-series design with a control group.
To compare experimental designs.Selected Experimental
Designs
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Test Markets DefinedAny research that involves:
• Testing a new product or change in an existing marketing strategy.
• The use of experimental or quasi - experimental procedures
Test Market Usage and Objectives• Estimate of market share• Effect on sales of similar products• Characteristics of consumers• Behavior of competitors
To gain insight into test marketing.Test Markets
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Direct Costs of Test Marketing
Costs include:
• Commercials
• Advertising
• Media
• Research
• POP
• Coupons
• Sampling
• trade allowances
To gain insight into test marketing.Test Markets
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Indirect Costs of Test Marketing
Costs include:
• Management time
• Diversion of sales activity
• Negative impact of test market failure
• Negative trade reactions to products
• Cost of letting competitors know what the firm is doing
To gain insight into test marketing.Test Markets
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Decision To Conduct Test Marketing
Benefits
• Good estimate of product’s sales potential
• Identify weaknesses of the product and the proposed marketing strategy
Factors to Consider
• Weight the cost and risk of failure
• Likelihood and sped product can be copied
• Damage an unsuccessful new product would inflict
To gain insight into test marketing.Test Markets
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Steps in a Test Market Study
1. Define the Objective
2. Select a Basic Approach
3. Develop Detailed Procedures for the Test
4. Select Markets for the Test
5. Execute the Plan
6. Analyze the Test Results
To gain insight into test marketing.Test Markets
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Simulated Test Markets (STM)
• uses laboratory approaches and mathematical models to simulate test market results
Other Types of Test Marketing
• A rolling rollout
• Lead country strategy
To gain insight into test marketing.Test Markets
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
• What is an Experiment?
• Demonstrating Causation
• The Experimental Setting: Laboratory or Field
• Experimental Validity
• Experimentation: Summary Of Basic Issues
• Test Markets
SUMMARY
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The End
Copyright © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning