Learning from the Destructive Trail Left by Caribbean

Earthquakes

Lloyd L. Lynch

Seismic Research Centre

The University of the West Indies

ANNUAL CDM CONFERENCE

Global Earthquake Model Session

5TH DECEMBER 2011

1692, Jamaica;

M 7.5,

MMI - IX-X;

3000 Killed

66% of city sank

1766, Trinidad;

M 7.8, MMI – VII-IX;

Changed face of Island.

Most masonry buildings

destroyed

1843, Guadeloupe;

M 7.9, MMI - IX-X;

2000 Killed. Heavy

liquefaction. Pointe-a-

Pitre ruined

1918, Puerto Rico

M 7.8, MMI - IX-X;

118 Killed,

Deadly Tsunami

US$4M losses

1867, Virgin Islands

MMI – VIII, St Johns;

St Thomas, St. Croix

Tsunami Damaged V.I.,

PR & St. Georges

1997, Tobago

MMI – VIII; Damaged

several buildings;

TT$18M in losses

2010, Haiti, P-a-P

M7.0(Mw), MMI IX-X

230,000 killed,

300,000 injured

1,000,000 homeless

US$12Billion in losses

1842, Northern Haiti;

M 8.1, MMI - IX-X;

Over 10000 Killed

Cap Hatien destroyed.

Fatal to other cities.

Since 1530

• About 100 Destructive/Large/Fatal events

• 5 Major Earthquakes

• Several Destructive Eruptions

• More than 17,000 deaths before 2010

• Between 230,000-316,000 deaths in 2010

• Multi Billions in earthquake losses

• Today

• 40,000,000 people exposed

• Trillions of dollars in property exposed

Key Vulnerability Lessons

• Many of the regions destructive events occurred in

eras of sparse population.

– 1690 Event in the Lesser Antilles (A few thousands)

– 1751 event: Port-au-Prince was newly established.

– 1766 Events in Trinidad (<3000)

– 1839 and 1843 events in L. Antilles

– 1692 and 1906 events in Jamaica

– All volcanic eruptions except the last St. Vincent event

Time to Successive Billions in

World Population: 1800-2050

Regional Distribution of Global Population: 1950, 2002, and 2050

Population

rankings of major

world regions

continue to shift in

favour of

developing

regions.

"Developed World" =

Japan, N. America

(excl. Mexico), W.

Europe, Australia,&

New Zealand.

NIS = New Indep.

States of the former

Soviet Union

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data Base.

Caribbean exclusively

17M 39M 50M

Regional Population Growth: 1960-2000

Santo Domingo

Regional Population Growth: 1960-2000

Regional Population Growth: 1960-2000

Population Growth and Urbanization

Metropolitan Country Population Metro area Density (/km2)

Santo Domingo Dom. Rep. 3,813,214 1,400.79 km2 2,722.2/km2

Puerto Plata Dom. Rep. 277,981 459.71 km2 604.7/km2

Port-au-Prince Haiti 3,000,000 735.78 km2 3,817.89/km2

Kingston/St. Andrew Jamaica 651,880 480 km2 1,358.1/km2

East-West Corridor Trinidad/Tobago 548,000 899 km2 609.6/km2

San Juan Puerto Rico 434,374 199.2 km2 2,180.6/km2

Santiago de Cuba Cuba 423,392 1,023.8 km2 413.5/km2

UNPLANNED URBANIZATION

Chronology of Large and Damaging

Caribbean Earthquakes

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920

4.0

6.0

8.0

1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800

1. Trinidad & Tobago 1766, 1795, 1825, 1888, 1954, 1968, 1997

2. Grenada 1888

3. St. Vincent 1718, 1734, 1812, 1839, 1844, 1902, 1971, 1979

4. Barbados 1953

5. St. Lucia 1839, 1906, 1953

6. Martinique: 1702, 1727, 1827, 1839, 1906, 1902, 1932, 1946, 2007

7. Guadeloupe: 1843, 1897, 1976, 2004

8. Dominica 1843, 1849, 1969, 2004, 2007

9. Montserrat 1690, 1843, 1867, 1898, 1934, 1935, 1995

10. Antigua & Barbuda 1690, 1843, 1974

11. St. Kitts & Nevis 1690, 1843, 1950

12. Netherlands Antilles 1867, 1992

13. Puerto Rico & VI 1787, 1843, 1867 1810

14. Dominican Republic 1564, 1751, 1842, 1943, 1946, 1953, 2003

15. Haiti 1564, 1701, 1751, 1770, 1842, 1887, 2010

16. Jamaica 1692, 1780, 1812, 1907, 1957

17. Cuba 1551, 1578, 1678, 1766, 1842, 1852, 1880, 1932 18. Cayman Islands 2004

19. Belize 2009

Distribution of earthquakes by Country

Key Vulnerability Lessons

• Most of the major and damaging earthquakes (and

volcanic eruptions) occur in periods when the

affected territories were colonies. Eg.

– 1690 Event in the Lesser Antilles

– 1751 events in Haiti and the Dom. Rep.

– 1766 Events in Trinidad and Cuba

– 1839 and 1843 events in L. Antilles

– 1692 and 1906 events in Jamaica

– All volcanic eruptions except the last St. Vincent event

25 October 1766 Trinidad Earthquake

Caused widespread disaster: whatever

the location and vulnerability class of

the structures, most (>60%) dwellings

and religious buildings collapsed or

suffered very heavy damages.

Location and Intensity

distribution of quake

Many religious buildings and

a small Fort as depicted in this

plan suffered total collapse

EFFECTS

Human Cost: Limited fatalities partly due to low population (~2500)

Economic: Heavy cost of repairs. Recovery period lasted 10 years. Taxes suspended

Environmental: “Face of island completely changed.” Altered course of St. Joseph river.

Caribbean Cities destroyed by Natural Disasters

Port Royal, Jamaica 1692 – Earthquake, 1712 & 1722 Hurricane

St. Joseph, Trinidad 1766 – Earthquake

St. Pierre, Martinique 1902 – Volcanic Eruption

Belize City, Belize 1963 – Hurricane

Plymouth, Montserrat 1997 - Volcanic Eruption

The 1770 Port-au-Prince

Earthquake

Haiti

Earthquake Parameters Date, Time: 23:15 on 3 June 1770

Magnitude: ~7.5 (Mw), shallow depth

Int. (MMI): Port-au-Prince, Leogane (X)

Petit Goâve (IX), Les Cayes

VII

Port-de-Paix , Tiburon (VI)

Jamaica (VI), Santo Dom. (V)

Earth fissures emitting vapours.

Tsunami inundated Gulf of Gonâve.

Washed 7.2 Km into Cul-de-Sac depression.

Liquefaction: Extensive in the Cul-de-Sac

Socio Economic Consequences

250+ perished in the earthquake.

Destroyed P-a-P, and leveled all buildings

between Miragoâne and Petit Goâve.

Thousands of slaves escaped in the chaos

Local economy collapsed

15,000 slaves died from subsequent famine

Another 15,000 died from the consumption

of tainted meat from Spanish traders

Only two hundred killed in P-a-P

partly due to the wide streets, low

houses, the warning rumbling noise,

and the hot weather which caused

many people to be outside or on

their porches at the time.

(Scherer)

Leogane EFZ Port-au-Prince

Tiburon Petit Goâve

Port-de-Paix

Gonaive

Lake Miragoâne

Gulf of

Gonâve

Cul-de-Sac

Cap-Haïtien

1843 Lesser Antilles Earthquake

: Lithographs and engravings

depicting effects in Guadeloupe

Fire and earthquake damage in

Pointe-a-Pitre. People trying to

escape in boats.

School room(?) in Pointe-a-

Pitre. Furniture, books, and

people thrown about by the

earthquake.

Earthquake in Pointe-a-Pitre.

Severe damage and fire. Erupting

volcanoes, San Friere and Sans

Toucher in the background.

Source: Jan Kozak Collection

La Habanera de Infanzón y Rodríguez

factory in Mayagüez, Puerto Rico

San Fermín, Puerto Rico Earthquake (11/10/1918)

Magnitude ~ 7.5 (Mw),

Intensity (RFS) - IX (Pt, Boringuen),

118 persons killed, many fatally injured

Damage – US$4 million

Triggered a 6 metre (20 ft) Tsunami

which assailed the NW coast and caused

30 deaths in Aguadilla

Tsunami damage in Mayagüez

1918

Source: Reid H. F. and Taber, S., 1919.

The Puerto Rico Earthquake of 1918

May 7, 1842 Cap Haitïen Earthquake - Haiti

This M8.0+, (and peak MMI IX)

earthquake destroyed the city of Cap

Haitïen and other towns in the north of

Haiti, the Dominican Republic and SE

Cuba.

Cities/Towns ruined:

Cap Haitïen: IX,

Port de Paix: IX,

Le Môle St. Nicolas: IX,

Fort Liberté: IX,

Santiago de los Caballeros IX, and

Baracoa, Cuba: VIII

Around 10,000 killed

½ population of Cap Haitïen (4-5K)

1842 Cap Hatien Earthquake

The town of Cap Hatien today Location of the 1842 event

The Majestic Sans Souci Palace of Cap Hatien

was destroyed by the earthquake

Citadelle la Ferrière fort with 4m thick walls

survived this and several other earthquakes

Destruction of Kingston by Earthquake and Fire – 14 Jan 1907 2000 killed and over #2 million pounds sterling in damage

4 August 1946 Dominica Republic Earthquake

Earthquake of magnitude 8.0

hits northern Dominican

Republic. 100 are killed and

20,000 are left homeless.

EVENT DAMAGE COMMENTS

1839 Martinique. Mag. 7.5 Fort de France MMI: IX

4,7 M FF Est. cost to repair damage to Point-a-

Pitre (MMI VIII)

1907 Jamaica. Mag. 6.5 Kingston MMI: IX

£2 M Est. cost of repairs to fire and

earthquake damage. 90K homeless.

1918 Puerto Rico. Mag. 7.3

Mayaguez MMI: VIII

US$4 M Earthquake and tsunami destroyed

about 700 homes and buildings.

1932 Cuba. Mag. 6.8 Santiago de Cuba MMI: VIII

20 M Pesos Most buildings were damaged. 500

injured

1974 Antigua. Mag. 7.4

EC$23 M Larger and older buildings damaged.

Oil refinery and Port also suffered.

1997 Tobago. Mag. 6.7 SW Tobago MMI: VII-VIII

TT$18 M 3 houses destroyed and damage to

several public buildings

2003 Dom. Rep. Mag. 6.5 Puerto Plata

RD$500

-700M

Several buildings damaged.

2007 Martinique. Mag. 7.4 Martinique MMI: VI-VIII

€20-30 M Deep earthquake. Many larger

structures suffered significant damage

2010 Haiti. Mag. 7.0 Port-au-Prince MMI: IX

US$12 B Est. Total cost of damage by ECLAC.

216K dead and over 1 million injured

Thanks for your attention…

Q & A

Estimate of the Economic Impact of a 1907

(Jamaica) Scenario earthquake in 2005

Maurice

Mason

While the estimate

was reasonable it

was largely

rejected by the

engineering

community

because robust

scientific methods

were not used.

Economic Growth in the Caribbean 1960-2007

GDP per Capita, 1960-2007 (Index 1960 = 100), Source: ECLAC

using data from World Bank

St. Vincent

Jamaica

Belize

Bahamas Barbados

Guyana

Trinidad &

Tobago

GDP per Capita, 1970-2007 (Index 1970 = 100), Source: ECLAC

using data from World Bank

Economic Growth in the Caribbean 1970-2007

Antigua/Barb

uda

Grenada

St. Lucia

Dominica

St

Kitts/Nev

is

Surinam

Caribbean Constraints

Other Positive Macro-economic Indicators

• Human Development (Index) – Education, Literacy,

– How skilful is the workforce

– Health and health care

– Standard of living

• Fixed Capital Formation – Building stock

– Infrastructure

– Developed properties

• Foreign Direct Investment – Foreign capital and funds

– Job opportunities

– Improved productivity level

Within seconds a large or major earthquake can wipe out these

development gains that accrue over the last 40-60 years

Constraints and Challenges

• Inadequate Human Resource Capacity for – Eq. Hazard/Risk Assessment

– Planning and development

– Building regulation

– Disaster Management (Eq. Risk Ignored, Overlooked)

• Ignorance/Apathy/Indifference – Public

– Civil society

– Government

– Professional Associations

– Institutions

• Coordination of the many programmes and projects that are already underway or soon to come on stream as well as bringing to bear the useful results of concluded projects that have so far not been incorporated into policy and practice.

Corruption Perception Index: Caribbean Rankings

Rank Country/territory 2008 CPI Score Surveys used Confidence range

1 New Zealand 9.3 6 9.2–9.5

18 Japan 7.3 8 7.0–7.6

18 United States 7.3 8 6.7–7.7

21 Saint Lucia 7.1 3 6.6–7.3

22 Barbados 7.0 4 6.5–7.3

23 Chile 6.9 7 6.5–7.2

28 Saint Vincent 6.5 3 4.7–7.3

33 Dominica 6.0 3 4.7–6.8

36 Puerto Rico 5.8 4 5.0–6.6

65 Cuba 4.3 4 3.6–4.8

72 T’dad &Tobago 3.6 4 3.1–4.0

96 Jamaica 3.1 5 2.8–3.3

102 Dom. Republic 3.0 5 2.7–3.2

177 Haiti 1.4 4 1.1–1.7

CPI Score’ relates to perceptions of the degree of corruption as

seen by businesspeople and country analysts, and ranges between

10 (highly clean) and 0 (highly corrupt).