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Summary of report prepared by Mark Kowal, May 2008

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary 3

1. Report purpose and structure 5

2. Adaptation context 6 2.1 INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 6 2.2 NATIONAL AND LOCAL CONTEXT 7 2.3 THE LOCAL CLIMATE IMPACTS PROFILE TOOL 8

3 Climate and weather in South Oxfordshire 10

3.1 WEATHER AND CLIMATE 10 3.2 SOUTH OXFORDSHIRE CLIMATE 10 3.3 LOCAL OXFORDSHIRE WEATHER OBSERVERS ON THE GROUND 11

4. Method 13 4.1 MEDIA SEARCH 13 4.2 SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEWS 13

5. Findings 15 5.1 RECORDED WEATHER EVENTS 15 5.2 INTERVIEW FINDINGS 16 5.3 STAFF UNDERSTANDINGS AND ATTITUDES 17 5.4 DOES THE WEATHER COST US? 18 5.5 SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ON SERVICE TEAMS 19

6. Conclusions and recommendations 21 Appendix 1 interview format 24

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The Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) tool has been designed by the national Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) to support local authorities in assessing the risks and opportunities that arise from a changing climate. It helps determine priority needs and develop action plans. This LCLIP report for South Oxfordshire District Council identifies weather risks that have faced the council over the past five years and examines the impacts these have had on council services. It used a media search to identify weather events from 2003-2008 and interviews with council employees to find out how service teams were affected by these events. This is an advisory report for South Oxfordshire District Council prepared by Mark Kowal. It sets out actions that the council could take to tackle weather related risks and will be considered alongside emerging guidance for National Indicator 188. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide have a long lifetime in the atmosphere. Whatever we do now to reduce greenhouse gases we can still expect 30-40 years of climate change because of emissions that have already taken place in the past. ‘Climate change adaptation’ is about identifying and learning to cope with impacts from these changing weather events. Future scenarios from the scientific community suggest that regions such as South Oxfordshire can expect weather surprises in the form of extreme events, altered seasons and year-on-year warming. A weakness of the LCLIP approach is that the historical weather record is only a partial guide to the future given that our climate will be constantly changing from now onwards. The government’s National Indicator 188, ‘planning to adapt to climate change’ sets out a framework that local authorities should follow. NI 188 has been adopted as an indicator within Oxfordshire’s Local Area Agreement. This LCLIP report will help the council achieve level one of the indicator framework, our goal for 2008/9. Since the 1980s, central England has been exceptionally warm. Dry summers have also been experienced. Local weather observers pinpoint the changing length and intensity of seasons as a key issue, not just the occurrence of extreme weather events. Weather incidents covered in this report are gales/storms, rain/flood, heat/sun and snow/ice. Surface or flash flooding has been the highest weather risk for South Oxfordshire so far, whilst altering seasonality can be more far reaching in its effects. This LCLIP has not found any evidence of large-scale weather events that have overwhelmed council services. Highly damaging events have not occurred. Likewise the direct costs of weather events are limited, as shown for example by minimal insurance claims. Services have coped within existing staff and financial resources and adaptation by teams is already occurring. All teams have been willing to engage with the process of considering climate change adaptation.

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The argument is made that - while coping with the weather is not yet costing the council large sums or causing huge difficulties - extreme events are expected to increase in frequency and severity, therefore it is important to plan for weather related risks. Looking at relationships between specific services and weather events does help us to identify the vulnerable areas that need to be addressed through specific adaptation actions. Detailed findings for individual council service teams are set out in a separate document. In summary, the recommendations of this report are: • undertake follow-on actions leading to the embedding of weather related risks within

the council’s risk management programme. An adaptation action plan will address those weather impacts that are considered significant due to their likelihood or severity.

• develop systems to log weather variables and monitor costs. • take advantage of specialist knowledge about the likely climate in the future • pursue a partnership approach to climate change adaptation with the Local Strategic

Partnership • encourage adaptation action by the private sector. • extend our leadership role to enable broader community adaptation. The recommendations are set out in more detail in section 6. These actions will allow South Oxfordshire District Council to move through the performance levels of National Indicator 188. The aim of this work is to improve the resilience of the council’s services and provide long term benefits for communities and businesses in South Oxfordshire.

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This report will assist South Oxfordshire District Council in assessing the risks and opportunities arising from a changing climate across the District. The purpose of the report is: • to take a retrospective look at the past five years’ weather events and examine how

these have affected the council’s services • to raise awareness of the importance of climate change adaptation within the

council’s service teams • to provide practical information to teams that will help them to develop the council’s

approach to climate change during 2008/9 The study represents a significant step towards moving the council through level one of National Indicator 188 (for more information see section 2.2). A limitation of this report is that, if we only restricted ourselves to looking backwards, it would not be possible to explore the implications of climate change for our services in full. An important next step is to examine weather events and impacts expected under future climate change scenarios, working with the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). Service teams can then consider their actions based on historical weather incidents and taking into account future probabilities. The next step is to scope our future risks and vulnerabilities and develop an adaptation strategy. As a council, we need to ‘climate-proof’ the delivery of our services by implementing practical adaptation measures, focused in the first instance on priority areas. The structure of this report is as follows: Section 2 provides an introduction to climate change adaptation. It sets out the national context including national indicator 188, which gives a guide to the wider process which local authorities are expected to follow as they scale four performance levels. Mention is made of how SODC’s current work fits in with Oxfordshire County Council and other districts. An outline is provided of the Local Climate Impacts Profile tool. Section 3 gives an overview of the climate of South Oxfordshire. This covers data from various sources, including the Met Office Oxford station and Central England trends. The section concludes with views from local weather observers. Section 4 covers the methods used to carry out the project. It sets out the types of weather event we are examining and explains how we define a weather incident. Section 5 presents overall results. Frequencies and totals are given for the major kinds of weather events experienced over the last five years. Part 5.5 gives a summary of weather related impacts on the council’s service teams. The final section provides recommendations for future action. The interview format used is supplied in an appendix. The full table of weather incidents derived from the media search and detailed findings by service team are available in accompanying documents.

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2.1 INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

There are two areas in which we can act to tackle climate change – mitigation and adaptation. The ‘mitigation agenda’ addresses the causes of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Nationally the aim is to reduce the UK’s carbon emissions, by 80%, by 2050. A key point to grasp, however, is that it will take 30 years before mitigation action begins to have any effect on global climate. The inertia of the earth’s climate system has already committed us to considerable climate change. In 2007, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explained in a major report that we face 20 or 30 years of unavoidable climate change as the earth responds to heating produced by all the carbon that we have already added to the atmosphere. Figure 1. below shows predicted global temperatures under a range of scenarios. Through our behaviour now we can affect temperatures in the second half of this century. However, up to about 2040 all the lines follow a similar path, showing unavoidable temperature change.

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Figure 1. Predicted global temperatures to 2100

The world’s climate scientists tell us that an altered climate will become a key factor in our lives. The evidence is clear that climate change is already happening, over and above that which we can explain by natural variability. Our changing climate will lead to unavoidable and sometimes serious impacts from weather events. This means we must identify, anticipate and learn to cope with them.

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Our understanding of the effects of weather events will enable us to take action to be resilient and reduce risks. Successful adaptation will minimise the adverse affects of climate change and take advantage of beneficial effects. The UK’s changing climate is beginning to affect the activities of businesses, communities and local authority service delivery in both positive and negative ways. The specific changes we are likely to see in the UK can be summarised as: • warmer, wetter winters, leading to increased flood risk • hotter drier summers leading to water scarcity, drought and placing greater strain on

wildlife • more frequent extreme events, such as heat waves, gales, storms, tidal surges and

intense rainfall • rising sea levels leading to more coastal erosion and greater risk of coastal flooding In South Oxfordshire, we can expect weather surprises in the form of extreme events, altered seasons and year-on-year warming. Observers of nature have noticed that the ‘time of year’ we are in is now different. What used to be a series of reliable seasons, running through the year has physically changed. Hot summers like 2003 and 2006 are now far more likely to recur in the short term. As future weather events become more extreme and more frequent, these may cause impacts beyond our current coping capacities. 2.2 NATIONAL AND LOCAL CONTEXT

The government sponsored UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) was established in 1997. UKCIP is the major supplier of climate adaptation information across the UK. However, it was only around 2007 that local authorities began to consider the adaptation agenda alongside existing energy saving programmes. A milestone in raising awareness of the need for climate resilience has been National Indicator 188, ‘Planning to adapt to climate change’. NI 188 aims to ‘ensure that the risks and opportunities from climate change are embedded across all decision making, services and planning’. It charts the route that local authorities should follow as they construct their climate change adaptation programmes. The stages are: Level 1: Public commitment and prioritised risk-based assessment. Level 2: Comprehensive risk-based assessment and prioritised action in some areas. Level 3: Comprehensive action plans and prioritised action in all priority areas. Level 4: Implementation, monitoring and continuous review. Oxfordshire has selected NI 188 as one of 35 indicators under the Local Area Agreement. Oxfordshire local authorities have agreed to complete levels one to three of the indicator between 2008 and 2011. Another factor leading to rapid progress in the county is that climate change is one of Oxfordshire County Council’s four corporate priorities. These themes are also an element of South Oxfordshire’s Sustainable Community Strategy.

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The Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) is the principal baseline activity for local authorities to deliver Level one of NI 188. Oxfordshire County Council has completed its own LCLIP study. Oxfordshire County Council’s study identified that extreme weather events had cost the authority more than £16 million over 10 years. Oxfordshire County Council is now integrating the impacts of climate change into its council risk registers, working with key service areas on vulnerable assets, and linking work on longer-term flood risks with climate impacts. 2.3 THE LOCAL CLIMATE IMPACTS PROFILE TOOL

The first activity proposed in NI 188 for a local authority to achieve level one is carrying out an assessment of its current vulnerability to weather events. The best tool for this is the Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP), as developed by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). An LCLIP is an approach that can help an organisation to better understand the impact that the weather has had on its operations in recent years. Some of the councils that have undertaken LCLIPs so far are Kent, Worcestershire, Lancashire, and Devon. Aylesbury Vale is one of the few UK district councils that have conducted them. This assessment tool describes the impacts of recent weather events and identifies the relationships between weather and service delivery. It establishes the extent of damaging impacts from weather on service delivery, staff resources, finances and reputation. Using this information, the local authority identifies vulnerable areas and is able to plan how to tackle them. The LCLIP approach offers a simple entry point to what may appear to be complex data. Taking explicitly local impacts, it relates weather events to real consequences. Because it makes use of media reports, a detailed understanding of scientific principles isn’t needed. A Local Climate Impacts Profile can cover three stages. This report completes stage one. Stage 1 - a historical perspective

This consists of recalling what has already happened using newspapers as a record of weather incidents, and asking service managers about impacts and responses. This increases staff members’ understanding of the type, location and severity of the weather events that have affected the district in the past. For South Oxfordshire District Council, the main deliverable of this stage of the LCLIP is a report of how significant weather-related events affected the council’s services from January 2003 to the end of 2007. The report contains a database of past weather event information. This includes the dates on which the incidents occurred; meteorological variables, weather conditions and their impacts and consequences. Further stages to conclude the LCLIP could be: Stage 2 - constructing a monitoring system

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The findings from stage 1 can form a baseline on which to record what happens subsequently, through the establishment of a system to log impacts and the weather that caused them. Stage 3 - planning for future impacts

We can then use stage 2 data to decide on critical thresholds for action such as high temperatures or levels of rain fall. Critical thresholds will depend on the council’s willingness to accept risk, the strategic context, the availability of information, and the responses of our partner organisations.

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3.1 WEATHER AND CLIMATE

The main differences between climate and everyday weather are set out below: Weather is the way the atmosphere is behaving in terms of local temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, brightness, visibility, wind speed and atmospheric pressure. It consists of short-term changes in the day-to-day state of the atmosphere and ocean. Climate is the description of the long-term patterns, averages and variations of weather in a region over long periods. It is statistical information that describes the variation of weather at a given place for a specified interval. Variables defining climate zones include latitude, altitude, proportion of land to water and distance to oceans and mountains. Formally for the UK, climate is ‘the weather of a locality averaged over 30 years, plus statistics of weather extremes’. Climate change is understood in terms of change over timescales of years, decades or centuries, looking for changing values of weather variables and changing trends. These might be changes in wind patterns, ocean surface temperatures and precipitation. For example, after looking at data from rain gauges, satellites and lakes, researchers can determine if in a given summer an area was drier than average. If drier than normal conditions carry on over the course of many summers, that would indicate climate change. 3.2 SOUTH OXFORDSHIRE CLIMATE

Central England Temperature

The UK’s climate has changed over the past century. Central England temperatures have risen by 1°C in the past 100 years. The UK’s winters are getting wetter, with more precipitation concentrated in days of heavy rainfall. Since the 1980s, central England has been exceptionally warm. The 1990s was the warmest decade since records began in the 1660s. 2006 and 2007 saw the breaking of a number of records. 12-month rolling averages show that some particularly warm individual months made April 2006 up to April 2007 the warmest year ever on record since 1659. Oxford’s weather

Oxford’s weather is reported by the Radcliffe Weather Station, which supplies meteorological data for twelve-month periods with yearly totals and means. The Radcliffe analysis of the recent climate of England SE and Central South region (including Oxfordshire) contains these highlights: • The Radcliffe temperature time series confirms that the post-1986 decade is the

warmest on record by a considerable margin.

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• Rainfall deficits and exceptional temperatures created periods of high evaporation. Over the past decade, evaporation losses have been persistently above average leading to water losses from drainage basins. Important economic implications of increasing evaporation are a potential shortage of water resources.

• Higher temperatures lead to concerns that the increases in evaporation may affect future water availability.

• Recent Oxford rainfall patterns are characterised by large deviations from long-term averages.

• Dry spells were registered in the summer of 1995 and 1996-97 but droughts of the 1780s and early 1800s were more extreme than those of today.

• From 1980 to 1995 the winter rainfall totals were 20% above the summer rainfall. We can expect dry summers with long periods of rainfall deficiency.

3.3 LOCAL OXFORDSHIRE WEATHER OBSERVERS ON THE GROUND

Some South Oxfordshire residents are particularly interested in the area’s weather. Living in Lower Shiplake, Dennis Gilbert, Henley Standard weatherman, has records of temperatures and rainfall data that have been consistently reported since 1971. Likewise in Middle Assendon near Henley, Mr Nicholas Verge, a weather enthusiast, has been keeping records since the late 80s. Interviewed for this LCLIP, they discussed how their local results matched key Met Office findings. Interviews discussed indicators of change in South Oxfordshire weather and climate: 1. An overarching finding is that the growing season has substantially lengthened.

Gilbert and Verge confirmed that the number of growing days has extended by as much as 20 extra days in recent years. This reflects changes in the intensity of the growing season, not just its length. Increases in growing season length are mostly due to warmer springs causing an earlier start to plant growth, but warmer autumns also contribute. They felt that summer heat wave days might have been boosted by as much as 15 days too. The spring and autumn periods have shifted, eating into what used to be our winter period. Winters may now be effectively one month shorter and are considerably less intense than in olden days.

2. Daffodils have been flowering in mid-January. While early varieties can hasten this

impression, the mid-winter months of 2007/2008 were very warm against the record, and this promoted early flowering nation-wide, and not just of daffodils.

3. The total number of frosty nights has been on a strong decreasing trend. In earlier

periods 30 years ago, 12 –15 frosts per month during March and April would have been usual. Durations of winter cold waves have decreased, rapidly declining since mid-80s. Significant spells of cold weather are now rare. Autumnal frost days have also decreased, with very few October night frosts, these now only begin in November.

4. Informants Mr Gilbert and Verge suggest a long-term decline in the days with

morning snow cover or with falling snow. While in the 1980s total days with snow in Oxfordshire would have been on average 20 - 25 per year. A strong downward trend in the number of days means that snow now falls on very few autumn or spring days. Met Office confirms this trend for south England, where 75% fewer days have snow.

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5. Late May in earlier years was when temperatures would suddenly rise towards onset

of the full summer season. The period when summers begin appears to have moved, with a rapid spurt of warmth now occurring earlier, leading of course to the earlier onset of summer.

6. Spring thunderstorms are occurring earlier in the year by about 3 weeks. In southern

England deep storms used to develop over land, only at the height of summer in June/July. Today warm convective unstable masses move onto the UK land surface from Spain/France, with greater frequency, earlier in the year. Summer rain is now made up from significantly more thunderstorms.

7. Studies have confirmed the summer 2003 heat wave was attributable to climate

change at the highest level of statistical confidence, as it was far above the recorded variation of summers on the record. Summer 2003 had an extraordinarily high quotient of hot days and hot nights. The length and intensity of Central England heat waves are trending strongly upwards. Local data confirms this.

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4.1 MEDIA SEARCH

A thorough media search identified all weather-related events from 2003 to early 2008, which could have resulted in impacts to the council. Local hard copy and online media archives were consulted in order to compile a historical picture of how the weather affected the District between 2003 and 2008. The newspaper archives included the Henley Standard, Oxford Mail, Oxford Times, Wallingford Herald, Thame Gazette, as well as national media like BBC News and the Independent and Telegraph newspapers. A database was prepared that records the story title, date, areas affected by the event, a summary of media story content, meteorological data and the internet reference source. The impacts on local authorities from extreme weather generally fall into four categories: (i) service delivery; (ii) capital and operational costs; (iii) employee time; and (iv) reputation. These impacts result from four chief types of weather event:

• Gales / Storms

• Rain / Flood

• Heat / Sun

• Snow / Ice

An additional fifth category for longer-term events was included: Drought / Altered seasons. The media review also notes any policy responses reported in the media after the event itself. A ‘weather incident’ is understood as a reported weather event that: • exceeds ‘normal’ thresholds • has discernible direct effects on the District’s local population and environment • has economic and strategic consequences; and • impacts the delivery of council services, properties, staff or strategic goals. 4.2 SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEWS

Representatives of a range of service teams were interviewed to consider the effects of weather events on South Oxfordshire District Council services. Information emerging from the media review was presented to interviewees and semi-structured interviews were carried out using the interview format in Appendix 1. A further purpose of completing the interviews was to raise awareness of the importance of weather in the council’s delivery of its services. Twenty interviews were carried out, each about one hour long. In some cases, a second interview was necessary to check details. Once written-up, interviewees were asked to review the draft text. This initiative often led to substantive text improvements. Interviewees were receptive and willing to engage.

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The approach used first uncovered the existing relationships between service areas and various types of weather. Significant events were then reviewed and any impacts on services examined. This gave perspectives on: • service relationships with different kinds of weather, climate and to weather impacts • a historical backwards-look at severe incidents • any short and longer term adaptation plans and responses

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5.1 RECORDED WEATHER EVENTS

The goal of this Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) was to collect evidence on the relationships between South Oxfordshire District Council services and the weather across the seasons, and to examine cases where extreme weather events have impacted on the local authority. A detailed summary of weather events identified from media sources from 2003 to early 2008 is set out in an accompanying document. This details the type of weather event and the impact it had on the region and community. In the original source, news stories particularly emphasise the effects on local people. Generally, the stories cover first the event itself, sometimes with detailed meteorological data; which leads on to human interest impacts; discussion of further causes of the impacts; emergency responses; and sometimes policy responses from responsible organisations. One drawback of the media review is that it is unlikely to include information on events where the impacts were diffuse or indirect within the district or do not have strong human interest. The five year weather record is as follows: Rain and flood

Flooding has been the most frequent cause of incidents affecting council services. In South Oxfordshire since early 2003, significant flooding has occurred six times. Two major events occurred, with substantial river flooding, in winter 2003 and in July 2007. As well, the record includes many smaller cases of flash flooding, sometimes associated with gales. In late summer periods, flash floods are often linked with breaking heat waves. This was the case after both the 2006 and 2003 heat waves. While the floods cannot be attributed directly to climate change, it does provide a clear indication of the scale and nature of the extreme weather events we may experience as a result. Sun and heat-waves - altering seasonality

Heat-waves in July/August 2003 and in July 2006 caused diverse impacts across the district, as illustrated by varied media accounts. Human and health costs arising from heat stress are high. These events are also firmly linked with a significant drought that occurred from 2003 and deepened in intensity over 2005 and 2006, only concluding in late spring 2007. The two heat waves were also associated with altered seasonality and changed growing seasons, over the winter of 2003/05 and as well and very significantly, in the winter of 2006/07. It is projected that heat waves as experienced in the summers of 2003 and 2006 could become a normal summer within 20-30 years, and with even hotter extreme summers becoming part of the future record.

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Drought - subsidence

Two long dry spells affected the region between 2003 and 2005. The first began in October 2003. It is unclear from media reports if, in meteorological terms, this drought ‘broke’ in 2004. A spate of media mentions were made of increasing drought biting into district life in late 2004, with very significant concerns expressed in late 2005. The water restriction timeline began in April 2006 when Thames Water introduced a domestic hosepipe and sprinkler ban, the first in 15 years. In mid-April 2006, Thames Water applied to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs for an order to ban non-essential water use. In June 2006 a very wet May eased pressure on water supplies. Again in August 2006, the county received twice the normal average rainfall amount for July, staving off suggestions that an emergency drought order should be imposed. By 18 January 2007, by the time the ban was lifted, hundreds of people across the county had been issued warnings, but nobody was fined. The combination of drought with flooding on clay soils in Oxfordshire has caused incidences of subsidence, which have serious and costly consequences. This was very poorly covered by the media, except for some mention of the costs to Oxfordshire County Council of road repairs. This issue only came properly to light following publication of the county LCLIP. Fire events have been very rare and minor in scale. Gales and storms

A few storm events pepper the record, with for example heavy winds in Sept 2003, May 2005, July 2006 and January 2007. These have caused some damage and loss of life. Ice and snow

Serious events of snow and ice are highly marginal in the 5 year record. No significant events were recorded by the media. 5.2 INTERVIEW FINDINGS

An overall key result was that weather events over the last 5 years have been limited in their impacts and services have managed to cope with normal human and financial resources. This gives cause for comfort. South Oxfordshire is a well-buffered district where we have been lucky that the kinds of weather events we have seen in recent times have not been catastrophic. Impacts have not been beyond our management abilities and current resources. • This LCLIP shows that weather is an important factor in delivery of district services.

However, in contrast to more vulnerable local authorities, there were almost no cases where council responses were overwhelmed, where the council’s reputation was

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damaged or a great deal of extra man-power was needed. Nor were high costs incurred.

• Many of the known events that were picked up in the media trawl were not seen as

'extreme' by interviewees. It was difficult to quantify impacts through interviews due to the limited number of extreme events.

• Insurance costs, either raised premiums or payment of excesses, were marginal.

Few costs were identified beyond insurance excesses related to subsidence caused by trees in the Didcot area.

• A real difficulty was the fading of informant’s memories of how a specific event

unfolded, and recalling just what were the impacts and responses. • It became clear that this approach - media research, followed up with interviews -

was useful in raising the topic of adaptation with staff across service areas. • Council responses to common weather impacts are well-defined, particularly in

relation to flood alleviation. Practical adaptation is progressing and is common across services. Reactive responses are more likely when impacts are unusual or infrequent.

• Despite the robust coping systems in place, the risk of ‘extreme weather’ causing

overwhelming impacts to the council will always be present. • Monitoring of weather variables is very limited. No services have official procedures

concerning receipt of weather warnings. Formal procedures concerning receiving weather warnings and communicating weather related information are just beginning to be developed, as part of the council’s Emergency Response Plan.

• Little in the way of quantitative data is available to deepen understandings of the

degree of the impacts. Weather-related staff time and financial costs are not separately identified and monitored.

• The effects of weather events and of climate trends on the council’s strategic goals

have not been assessed. • Council services are vulnerable to large-scale and unforecast weather events.

Business continuity plans do not yet cover weather risks, may be incomplete and are perhaps under publicised.

5.3 STAFF UNDERSTANDINGS AND ATTITUDES

A key finding is that those service areas exposed to weather impacts have started to adapt. Service team responses are not confined simply to reactions after an incident. • Team managers and operational staff have a robust general understanding of the

effects that weather variables have on their services. No service department is disinclined to engage with weather and climate issues.

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• Council operational staff were open in stating that they had noticed climate change, personally and professionally. Verbal evidence was willingly offered about changes in weather patterns and some concern expressed.

• Despite some interest in the effects and direction of climate change, the overall

observation is that staff attitudes do not yet demonstrate much concern about climate issues. Almost all interviewees are simply ‘silently witnessing’ the evidence of changed weather patterns.

• Detailed local climate knowledge was evident with staff involved in operational, rather

than strategic work. The majority of service managers have not usually considered the weather as a factor that impinges on service planning and delivery.

• A key finding was that confounding factors often may make it hard to ‘blame the

impacts’ under discussion directly to the weather. • With some educational work carried out for staff, attitudes amongst council staff

potentially could build-up to become a driver for adaptation change. • It has been commonly noted that concern about potential reputation damage is now

a driver of local authority action for carbon mitigation. On the adaptation side, for the moment, accountability only applies to the adequacy of council responses to weather emergencies. In the future, council teams may be held to account for the quality of their proactive adaptation measures as well.

• Public understandings will develop as climate change continues to evolve, and has

effects on lives in the future. Some sectors of the community are not aware of flood and other weather related risks.

• South Oxfordshire District Council has not yet taken on responsibility for general

guidance and advice to the public and businesses on weather related risks. If future responses are inadequate, this could become potentially damaging to the council’s reputation.

5.4 DOES THE WEATHER COST US?

This study has not been able to demonstrate large costs to the Council from extreme weather events. As current reporting mechanisms do not cover weather as a specific costed variable, the impact is largely unknown and is therefore an undefined risk. The council’s insurance records show no significant weather-related insurance claims lodged between January 2003 and early 2008 according to interviews and confirmed by the finance team. Weather damage costs since 2003 have been low and limited to tree-related subsidence. Financial costs that have been identified are not yet significant in comparison with the overall operating financial flows. For the moment, it would therefore seem appropriate that weather impacts are treated as a cost that is absorbed within operating budgets. Additional costs may be uncovered as reporting practices are put in place.

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Regardless of the limited financial implications of extreme weather to date, we need to anticipate growing impacts on the community and other stakeholders. There is a growing risk of repeated extreme weather events. Return periods for extreme events and average conditions are changing. Likelihood and magnitudes of future events can only be projected, but further into the future, are likely to be much more serious than today. Decisions on risks and cost should therefore use information coming from future climate projections and not be restricted to historic data. UKCIP and the Met Office will be publishing new climate projections in Spring 2009 which will give probabilities for a full range of weather outcomes. 5.5 SUMMARY OF IMPACTS ON SERVICE TEAMS

The most significant weather related impacts on council services in the past five years have been: • Emergency response to potential river flooding – distribution of sandbags • Flood prevention work and watercourse maintenance • Public information and media work during extreme weather events • Waste collection problems caused by gales and wind – increased litter and

complaints of missing bins • Refuse collection delays relating to floods and snow • Increased garden waste due to warmer weather and early spring growth • Changes to grass cutting and leaf cleaning schedules due to altered seasons eg

more vigorous weed growth • Food borne disease increasing in warmer weather – more barbecues/outdoor eating

and poor refrigeration in the food industry • Extreme weather affecting outdoor promotional events • Warmer weather leading to increases in complaints about odours and noise • Public enquries relating to vulnerable trees increasing during storms • More frequent flooding of council owned nature conservation sites • Potential subsidence during droughts caused by council owned trees located on clay

soils • Altered seasonality changing timing of tree planting programmes. Hot weather

leading to increased watering • Existing work to reduce fragmentation of habitats through management of

Conservation Target Areas has increasing importance • Incorporation of climate change adaptation and resilience into planning policy. • Residents in flood damaged buildings requiring short term housing • Tension in families and between neighbours in hot weather – can lead to threatening

behaviour or increased violence • Increased theft opportunities in hot weather • Loss of power to CCTV systems in extreme weather • Staff attendance at work affected during disruptive weather events – including child

care commitments due to school closure Summary of weather related costs Flood alleviation programme Nuneham Courtney £25,000 Flood prevention work around the district 2008/9 £95,000 Increased annual cost of insurance claims for £2,500 subsidence caused by trees (from 2007/8)

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Extra irrigation for newly planted trees in heatwave £1,500 Other potential weather related costs are not transparent, as data collection across the council does not normally include reporting of weather conditions Summary of weather related impacts on reputation Good flood management practice, for example following the Nuneham Courtney floods, has been reported very positively in the local media, casting the council and its contractor in a favourable light. Waste material spilling out of collection boxes during high winds has the potential to adversely affect the reputation of the street cleansing service. Summary of weather related impacts on staff hours Weather related incidents in the past five years have been dealt with within existing staff resources Detailed descriptions of impacts on each service team are available in an accompanying document.

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A proactive approach is recommended to plan for the impacts of future weather events and take advantage of the opportunities offered by climate change. Regardless of the limited financial implications of extreme weather to date, we should take action to anticipate potential future impacts on the council, the community and other stakeholders. The following drivers are expected to lead to an increase in the importance of adapting to changing weather patterns: • growing scientific information about likely future weather events • further requirements from central government for adaptation action by local

authorities • increasing requests from business and community leaders for help with coping with

weather impacts and climate adaptation It is proposed that the recommendations below are implemented over a period of four years to meet the requirements of levels one to four of national indicator 188. Recommendation 1: Undertake follow-on actions that build on the LCLIP results in a systematic and coordinated way. 1. Present the LCLIP findings to the relevant council departments and business units.

Explore ways for this information to become an element of routine corporate and service planning.

2. Adopt climate change adaptation as a corporate risk (this recommendation has now been implemented). Service level risk management will then follow.

3. Conduct follow-up sessions with operational managers. Identify a menu of adaptation priorities after examining each area of service delivery.

4. Check to ensure that climate risks have been taken into account in documents and plans including emergency plans.

5. Work with other district authorities within the framework of the county-wide Local Area Agreement to share information and standardise methodology, such as monitoring systems. Take into account findings of similar work carried out by neighbouring councils, including across county borders.

6. Prepare an Adaptation Action Plan containing the results of the service-specific reviews. This would detail each risk with magnitude and likelihood of impacts. It would contain a list of priority actions.

Recommendation 2: Develop systems to log weather variables and monitor costs 1. Develop systems for reporting weather events, impacts, and costs. Logging these

will identify variables related to weather events and provide insights into true weather impacts. Additional costs may be uncovered once better reporting is in place

2. In the medium term, individual services should aim to work out quantitative

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thresholds for weather variables that are expected to cause local impacts and problems with service delivery. This would enable monitoring of trigger weather conditions that would necessitate alternative responses.

3. Encourage financial planning to take explicit account of the risk of an increased frequency of extreme weather events impacting budgets. Annual service planning review process should mesh with the Adaptation Plan to factor in likelihood, magnitude and trends of key risks.

Recommendation 3: Take advantage of specialist knowledge about the likely climate in the future 1. Expose staff operating key services to future weather scenarios. Options for

working with new data and tools should be taken advantage of once new climate projections (UKCP09) are presented in 2009. Action priorities identified should be checked against these scenarios.

Recommendation 4: Pursue a partnership approach to climate change adaptation with the Local Strategic Partnership (LSP) 1. Fully incorporate climate adaptation in the agenda of the LSP including partners

such as the local Primary Care Trust and emergency services. Work together to reduce the impacts of weather events, when these occur on a regional scale.

2. Work with LSP partners on specific joint-work packages. Once local priorities are identified, implement plans with interested stakeholders that tackle community and business issues at a suitable pace.

3. Engage with the South-East Regional Climate Change Partnership to take full advantage of advice, tools and support. Encourage local strategic partners to join. Contribute to the network through participating in sector or themed working groups.

4. Take part in adaptation networks such as groups hosted by the Improvement and Development Agency for Local Government (IDeA) that provide Communities of Practice for climate issues. Monitoring issues raised by these communities is a good mechanism for sharing best practice and for pooling skills.

5. Be aware of Local Strategic Partnership members as they develop their own approaches to combating the effects of climate change.

Recommendation 5: Encourage adaptation action by the private sector. 1. Encourage stakeholders in economic development to become conscious of the

potential challenges and opportunities of a changing climate, e.g. small businesses, market town partnerships and local associations. Encourage use of results of sector studies, for example assessments of tourism in SE England or Central England agriculture.

2. Work with stakeholders to take adaptation action forward together, building community-level resilience across the district.

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3. Encourage businesses to incorporate the concept of climate risk into their operations. Give businesses guidance on how to reduce the economic costs of weather incidents.

Recommendation 6: Extend our leadership role to facilitate broader community adaptation. 1. Help local organisations to understand the implications of climate change for

communities, for example, by continuing to support Parish councils whenever they seek advice and support from SODC regarding the risk of flash flooding or river flooding.

2. Use community engagement events and web-based tools to discuss the management of climate change impacts with community partners.

3. Work with local communities to promote adaptation by becoming fully involved in the Community Risk process, as well as with the partnership that implements actions centred on the community risk register.

4. Share information and coordinate planning with higher government tiers to benefit other districts, county, regional government and the wider community.

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Name: Department: Time (years) in post: Team/service: Introduction – recap acronym (LCLIP); reasons for study - need to build capacity; get evidence for actions; policy - Nottingham Declaration, National Indicator 188; science collaborator – UKCIP; early LCLIPs; results of media trawl. What interview format covers – general relations weather X services; then review specific events. Relationships between weather X effects on local setting X delivery of SODC services What is the work you do? What are the various areas and responsibilities? Main remit: Specific work areas / tasks: How has recent weather affected this department / service over last 5 years? Main relationships? Confirmed? Confidence? Solid data available or anecdotal? Confounding factors? Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Please point out related resources or documents (LA information, national bodies) A. Event details If specific significant events did take place, please explain what happened… …….. 1. Event name / type: 2. Dates and duration of event: 3. Affected geographical area/s: 4. What were the direct and indirect causes of the event? Which factors led to the impacts?

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5. Phases of the event: 5.1 Immediate impacts on the physical area, society and environment: 5.2 Longer term consequences on the area: 6. Summary of affected groups (businesses, communities): 7. Meteorological and statistical data (data sources): B. SODC response to the event Lead-in: Let’s discuss how SODC responded to the impacts …….. 1. What was the initial/emergency response? Was there collaboration with other departments/agencies? 2. What advice, if any, was provided locally? 3. What alleviation, adaptation or mitigation responses were put in place? Details. 4. Were there any thresholds determined for future events? Details: 5. What policies or guidelines were created for similar events? Fit with national policy? 6. How adequately defined are the responsibilities between agencies and other stakeholders?

• Adequacy of immediate responses + collaboration / Of longer term actions…..?

C. Effects of the event on the Council Lead-in: Let’s talk about the direct impacts on your service of this event, if there were any. 1. Was there any damage to, or difficulties in, service delivery? 2. Was there any damage to our reputation? 3. Was there a change to man-hours? 4. What were the costs of the event? Divided if possible into Direct / Indirect & Immediate / Longer term. 5. Were any service objectives, priorities or statutory functions affected? 6. Would you say this event had a low, medium or high operational impact? 7. Was a report or review written about the incident? Available? E . Who else should we speak to about this event? Other suggestions: