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Land[scapeLand[scape] Vulnerability ] Vulnerability & Resilience: & Resilience:
B. L. Turner IIClark University
Where we are and where we may go before we got there.Where we are and where we may go before we got there.
2007 Science 314: 1696-1704
NRC for NSF
Land use and land cover dynamics
www.globallandproject.org
T3.1T3.1--3:3: Sustainable Land ArchitectureSustainable Land Architecture
Resilience Alliance & Network Resilience Alliance & Network Resilience ScienceResilience Science
SocialSocial--ecological system + Resilienceecological system + Resilience
GLP (IGBPGLP (IGBP--IHDP + ESSP) IHDP + ESSP) Land Change/System ScienceLand Change/System Science
Sustainability Science (AAAS + NAS + ESSP)Sustainability Science (AAAS + NAS + ESSP)
Coupled HumanCoupled Human--Environment System + Vulnerability (Resilience)Environment System + Vulnerability (Resilience)
Sustainability Science Sustainability Science coupled HE or SE systemcoupled HE or SE system•• xxxxxxxx•• xxxxxxxx•• LCSLCS•• VulnerabilityVulnerability•• Sustainable Land ArchitectureSustainable Land Architecture
Coupled HE/SE SystemCoupled HE/SE System
Human SS
Biophysical SS
Event:HazardPerturbationDisturbanceStress/stressor
ExposureExposure SensitivitySensitivity ResilienceResilienceCoping CapacityCoping Capacity
Exogenous/externalExogenous/external
Endogenous/internalEndogenous/internal
Coupled HE/SE SystemCoupled HE/SE System
Human SS
Biophysical SS
Event:HazardPerturbationDisturbanceStress/stressor
ExposureExposure SensitivitySensitivity ResilienceResilienceCoping CapacityCoping Capacity
Political Economy as cause of---no coupled system
System abstractions—provenuse more for env. subsystem
Conservation Biology/LCLUCConsequences—first tier links to H SS
Cutter et al. 2000. Annals AAG
Place-based vul.
• No. of LCLUC or GLP studies directed to vulnerability are few.– A structural reason; change must
take place
Luers et al. 2003
• No. of studies directed to resilience are more common but not directed to the coupled system & not land necessarily based.
• Many studies that could be reshaped to address vulnerability.
Pielke 2005 & Marshal et al. 2004
Land change surface sensible & latent heat flux with specific impacts on afternoon sea breeze fronts marked changes in spatial distribution & amount (↓) of July-Aug precipitation + increase in diurnal temp. cycle
High frequency
Low frequency
Fire Frequency summaryYucatan Peninsula
2000-2006
Zoh Laguna Annual Precipitation
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Year
Ann
ual P
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Zoh Laguna Annual Precipitation
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J. Rogan & SYPR Project
DrivesOf LandChange&DisturbancesOf Land Systems
Land-Use Intensity & Frequency
Forest Cut Cultivation
Biomass Burning& Bracken Fern
Soil Nutrients & Water
[regional & local scales]
Area & Intensity of Deciduousness
SurfaceTemperature
Fire Scare& Burn Frequency
Loss of Biotic Diversity
Reduced Crop & Forest Productivity
Reduced Resistance to Catastrophic Fire
Outcomes to be avoided
# = Hypothesis in text
#3.1
#2.1 & 2.2
#1.3
#1.2
#1.1
Fig. 3: Hypotheses Linking Resilience-Vulnerability of Ecosystem Services to “Outcomes-to-Avoided”
In SpeciesBehavior
Landscape Level Biotic
Diversity
RegionalClimateChange
ForestDeciduous-
ness
ForestFragmen-
tation
FernInvasion
Short-lived
ForestSpp.
NutrientCycling
FarmgatePrice
CropYields &Damage
LivestockWater
Catastrophic Forest Fire Biodiversity
Loss
Carbon Stock
Reduction
ReducedHousehold
Subsistence& Income
ClimateChange
Population
Market
CBR +NeoliberalPolicies
ForestCut Cultivate
BiomassBurn
Land-UseIntensity &Frequency
Hurricanes
LivelihoodDiversity
Long-termBiophysicalhazards
Near-termsocioecon.hazards
Potential harm to system Vulnerabilities of biophysical subsystems of concern to
CBR, MBC, & Mundo Maya
Vulnerabilities of socioeconomic subsystem at household level
Fig. 2: Coupled System Vulnerability to Hazards in SYPR
Lawrence et al. 2004
Sustainable Sustainable Land Land
ArchitectureArchitecture
Spatial Congruence Spatial Congruence of of 6 Ecosystem Services 6 Ecosystem Services and and BiodiversityBiodiversity
Chan et al. 2006. PLOS Biology 4: 2138-2152
Does a focus on conservation-preservation of biodiversity alone yield best results for other ecosystem services?
Spatial Congruence of 6 Ecosystem Spatial Congruence of 6 Ecosystem Services and BiodiversityServices and Biodiversity
[Because]…benefits [of ecosystem services] vary in the scale of their operation and dependence on habitat, [with dramatic affect on] simultaneous management for multiple services.
Protecting [locations] selected for their biodiversity value is not likely to maximize protection for the full suite of benefits unless [changes in biodiversity priorities].
[Benefits] are more easily met if demand occurs at broad scales and supply varies considerably at local to regional scales. [e.g, carbon storage]
[In the reverse] spatial mismatches are exacerbated and [benefits] may be more difficult to achieve. [e.g., water]
Chan et al. 2006. PLOS Biology 4: 2138-2152
food production tourist attraction
pollination
carbon sequestrationflood protection
water purification
slope stability
biodiversity
recreation
beauty
fibre production
fodder production
stabilising micro-climate
fire prevention
shelter for life stockgame reserve
EEcosystemcosystem (Environmental?) Goods & Services(Environmental?) Goods & Services
From: MEA
Towards Governance of Global Terrestrial Surface
www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fia/maps/pages/OwnershipofF...
http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/environment/forest/forestcanada/landcover http://www.ga.gov.au/education/facts/images/tenure1.gif
Area and pattern ofsame land uses and covers
win-win?
• SS is the next multiple decadal orientation of climate-global change and development science.
• LCLUC-GLP poised to become foundational to sustainability science (SS)
• Vulnerability & especially sustainable land architecture are critical themes.